Here is the most useful pair of numbers from the last 12 months. Between 9 October 2025 and 9 October 2026 the Nifty 50 fell 10.6%. Over the same period the trailing earnings of the 50 companies in it rose 3.4%. Earnings went up. The index went down. The whole fall came from the multiple, which compressed from 22.3 times earnings to 19.3.
Every index level is two numbers multiplied together: earnings per share and the price the market is willing to pay for each rupee of those earnings. The earnings cycle drives the first. Rates, flows and fear drive the second. If you track only results day beats and misses, you are watching half the equation, and usually the slower half.
Nifty 50 trailing EPS, Oct 2025 to Oct 2026
Implied from NSE P/E, 9 Oct 2026
Nifty 50 price over the same 12 months
NSE, 9 Oct 2025 to 9 Oct 2026
Nifty 50 trailing P/E, near its 2 year low
NSE, 9 Oct 2026
Corporate advance tax, FY27 to 17 Sep 2026
CBDT, provisional
India's quarterly earnings calendar
India's financial year runs from 1 April to 31 March, which gives four reporting quarters. SEBI's Listing Obligations and Disclosure Requirements (LODR) regulations require listed companies to publish quarterly results within 45 days of the quarter end, and annual audited results within 60 days of the year end.
| Quarter | Period | Results by | What usually drives it |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | April to June | Mid August | Summer demand, pre monsoon inventory, first read on the new year's pricing |
| Q2 | July to September | Mid November | Monsoon outcome, the start of festive inventory, half year guidance |
| Q3 | October to December | Mid February | Full festive season, winter consumption, annual contract renewals in services |
| Q4 | January to March | End of May | Full year numbers, dividends, guidance for the year ahead |
As I write this in October 2026, the Q2 FY27 season is starting. Large IT services companies usually report first, in the second week of the month. Banks follow. The deadline for everyone is 14 November.
- Advance tax, first instalment
At least 15% of the year's estimated tax.
- Monthly data for the quarter
GST collections, auto dispatches, power demand, credit.
- Advance tax, 45% instalment
CBDT data to 17 Sep: corporate advance tax up 18.1%.
- RBI credit data for August
Non food credit up 18.8%.
- Manufacturing PMI for September
55.1, up from 52.8.
- Large IT services report first
The season opens.
- SEBI LODR deadline
45 days after the quarter: the whole market has reported.
Advance tax, the earliest earnings signal
Companies pay income tax in advance, in four instalments: at least 15% of the year's estimated tax by 15 June, 45% by 15 September, 75% by 15 December and 100% by 15 March. A company that is earning more than it expected has to pay more. So the aggregate corporate advance tax number is a read on what finance teams across India are seeing in their own books, weeks before results.
The Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) publishes provisional direct tax collections a few days after each instalment. The September 2026 print: corporate advance tax of about ₹4.16 lakh crore up to 17 September, 18.1% higher than a year earlier. Net corporate tax collections were up about 19.5%. Nominal GDP grew 10.3% in April to June 2026. Corporate tax growing at nearly twice nominal GDP says listed and unlisted India is more profitable than the index level suggests.
Two cautions. Advance tax covers every company that pays tax, not just the Nifty 50. And refunds, one off items and changes in tax law move the number. Treat it as a direction, not a forecast. The December instalment is the most useful because it reflects nine months of actual business and lands six to eight weeks before Q3 results.
CBDT, Direct tax collection press releases (FY27 data to 17 Sep 2026)Price equals earnings times the multiple
NSE publishes the P/E of every index daily. Divide the index close by its P/E and you get the trailing earnings per index unit. Do that every month and you can watch the earnings cycle and the multiple separately.
Rebased to 100 in Oct 2024: implied trailing EPS rose to about 109 by 9 Oct 2026, while the Nifty 50 price fell to about 93.
Month end Nifty 50 close and implied trailing EPS (close divided by NSE published P/E), Oct 2024 to 9 Oct 2026. Source: NSE daily index data.
Two years of that series tell a clear story. Implied Nifty EPS rose from 1,072 in October 2024 to 1,169 in October 2026, about 9% in two years, or around 4.4% a year. That is a slow earnings cycle by Indian standards. The index first held up on a rich multiple, then lost it in 2026 when crude, the rupee and foreign selling hit together.
The same split by sector is more striking. Over the 12 months to 9 October 2026:
Columns: price, earnings (EPS) and multiple (P/E), % change. Tap a cell to read it.
| Index | Price | Earnings | Multiple |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metal | 15.9 | 45.8 | -20.5 |
| Pharma | 18.4 | -0.4 | 18.8 |
| Energy | 1.5 | 10.6 | -8.2 |
| Bank | -1.7 | 16.5 | -15.6 |
| Auto | -6.5 | -10.8 | 4.8 |
| Nifty 50 | -10.6 | 3.4 | -13.5 |
| FMCG | -18.0 | 6.6 | -23.1 |
| IT | -19.8 | 14.8 | -30.1 |
% change, 9 Oct 2025 to 9 Oct 2026. Price from NSE closes; EPS implied as close divided by NSE published P/E; P/E change from NSE. P/E then to now: Metal 19.8 to 15.7, Pharma 33.8 to 40.2, Bank 15.5 to 13.1, IT 25.7 to 18.0, FMCG 40.5 to 31.1, Nifty 50 22.3 to 19.3.
Read the IT row twice. Earnings up 14.8%, helped by a rupee that went past 95 to the dollar, and the price down 19.8%. The market paid 30% less for each rupee of IT profit. Pharma is the mirror image: flat earnings, an 18% higher price, all multiple. Earnings are necessary. They are not sufficient. Implied EPS also shifts when NSE changes index members, so use these as approximate.
Worked example, what the next year could look like
Take the Nifty at 22,520.45 on 9 October 2026. Trailing EPS is 1,168.7 and the P/E is 19.27. Suppose earnings grow 12% over the next 12 months, close to nominal GDP growth plus a little operating leverage. EPS becomes about 1,309. Now pick a multiple.
- Multiple stays at 19.27: 1,309 × 19.27 = about 25,220. A 12% gain, all from earnings.
- Multiple returns to the 2 year median of 21.79: 1,309 × 21.79 = about 28,520. A 27% gain.
- Multiple falls to 17: 1,309 × 17 = about 22,250. Earnings grew 12% and the index still slipped about 1%.
In rupees. ₹10 lakh in a Nifty index fund on 9 October 2026 becomes about ₹11.2 lakh, ₹12.7 lakh or ₹9.9 lakh in those three cases, before dividends of roughly 1.5%. Same earnings. A ₹2.8 lakh spread decided by the multiple. That is why the rate cycle (module 7.2) and foreign flows (module 7.4) matter as much as results.
Earnings revision momentum, a systematic signal
Earnings estimates move slowly. When a business is improving, the evidence shows up first in orders, pricing and the advance data above, and only later in analysts' formal estimates. So stocks whose estimates are being raised tend to keep being raised for a while, and stocks being cut tend to keep being cut.
A related, well documented effect is post earnings announcement drift: after a large surprise, prices tend to keep moving in the direction of the surprise for weeks rather than adjusting in a day. Ray Ball and Philip Brown first described it in 1968, and it has been studied in many markets since. For a systematic investor this is the bridge between fundamentals and price trends. A company that surprises well often starts a price trend that a momentum screen will see.
Why revisions lag. Analysts revise after results and management calls, not before. The monthly data (tax collections, credit, dispatches, GST) moves first. If the data is strong and estimates are still flat, the revision is ahead of you. If estimates have already jumped, much of the news is in the price.
Sector specific leading indicators
Every sector has a monthly number that previews its quarter:
- Auto: wholesale dispatch and retail registration data published at the start of each month. Three months of it is most of the quarter's volume. Watch mix too: a shift to bigger vehicles lifts revenue per unit.
- Banks and NBFCs: RBI's fortnightly credit data and the monthly sectoral deployment release. Non food credit was growing 18.8% in August 2026 against 10.2% a year earlier. Fast loan growth lifts interest income, while the October 2026 repo hike will change deposit costs with a lag.
- IT services: dollar revenue guidance, large deal announcements and the rupee. A weaker rupee lifts rupee earnings even when dollar growth is flat, which is part of why IT EPS rose in 2026.
- FMCG: rural and urban volume commentary, input costs such as edible oil, wheat and packaging, and food inflation. Rural CPI at 5.23% in August 2026 against urban 4.31% tells you where the price pressure is.
- Cement and capital goods: core sector data (cement output +12.5% in August 2026), IIP capital goods (+16.9%) and government capex spent against the Budget.
- Metals and energy: global commodity prices. Metal earnings rose about 46% in 12 months; they will fall just as fast when prices turn.
RupeeCase strategies do not use analyst estimates or forecast results. They rank stocks on a price momentum composite, risk adjusted, and rebalance on a fixed calendar. Earnings reach the model only through price: a company that keeps surprising tends to build the price trend the ranking picks up, and a company that disappoints tends to fall out at the next rebalance. The Allcap strategy holds the top 50 names from the Nifty Total Market this way, rotated every 2 weeks (CAGR 44.7%, Sharpe 1.68, max drawdown -22.72%; Model, back tested, as of 27 Apr 2026). Every holding change is published at each rebalance, so you can see results season pass through the list.
Common mistakes
- Assuming earnings growth means index gains. In the 12 months to October 2026 Nifty EPS rose 3.4% and the index fell 10.6%.
- Reading the headline beat, not the guidance. The stock reacts to what the quarter does to next year's number.
- Treating a commodity earnings jump as a trend. A 46% rise in metal earnings comes from prices the company does not set.
- Mixing rupee and dollar growth. For exporters, check how much of the profit growth is currency.
- Trading results day. Gaps on results are large and fast. For most investors the cleaner signal is the drift over the following weeks.
MythGood results mean the stock goes up.
FactNifty IT earnings rose about 15% in the year to 9 Oct 2026 and the index fell 19.8%, because its P/E fell from 25.7 to 18.0. Pharma earnings were flat and the index rose 18.4%.
Questions readers ask
How do I get the Nifty's earnings per share myself?
NSE publishes the P/E, P/B and dividend yield of every index each trading day. Divide the closing level by the P/E. On 9 October 2026 that was 22,520.45 divided by 19.27, or about 1,168.7. Track it monthly. It is trailing, standalone and affected by index changes, so it is a guide to direction, not an exact figure.
Is a low P/E a buy signal?
Not on its own. A P/E near the bottom of its 2 year range, like 19.27 in October 2026, says the market is paying less for each rupee of earnings than it recently did. It can fall further if rates keep rising or earnings disappoint. Valuation tells you about the odds over years, not the timing over weeks.
Why do some stocks fall on good results?
Because the price already expected more. If a company beats the estimate but the market had priced a bigger beat, or guidance for the next year is cut, the stock falls. The number that matters is the surprise against expectation, and the change to future earnings.
Rules and figures in this module were last verified on 12 Oct 2026. Tax and regulatory rules change; check the source before acting.