Today is not a pin day. Buy dips. 24,500 is a trap.

A very good morning guys. Yesterday nifty closed just up 11 points. Flat, boring, that's what you thought. 30 thought the market had nothing to say. The IV ripped 48 % in one session. The option chain shifted by 500 points. Put writers walked up the ladder call writer has set up the trap and this morning gift nifty is up by 60 points while asia is screaming green if you think today is going to be another flat tuesday you are reading the wrong tape today has some big move in it and i'm going to tell you which direction i'm leaning and why so Today is 21st April, Tuesday.

This is the Tanmay Edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Episode 23. Let's go. So, Nifty is trading at 24,360. Sensex up by 276 points yesterday. Bank Nifty up by 16 points. IT was down yesterday. And VIX was up by 10 % on the day, which is the first honest move vol has made in a week. Overnight was not quiet. Gift Nifty this morning is trading up at 60 points. That is a gap up open. Asia is leading. 3%. 15%. Taiwan is up by 2%.

4%. Only Shanghai and Jakarta are red and are both soft. Europe closed heavy on Monday. 5%, CAC down, DAX down, US futures are mixed, Dow up a quarter percent and S &P and Nasdaq slightly red. So we are opening into Asia tailwind and a European hangover that is set up for a gap up that needs to defend itself by 11am. Mean reversion territory. 3. Nothing on the commodity side is the problem today. That removes one tail risk. But I keep calling pins and today is not that day.

Let me show you why. 64. 58. That is a 48 % jump in one session. You do not get a 48 IV expansion before a boring expiry. You get it when the smart money is buying insurance. ATM straddle for today is trading at 267 points. 25 multiplier gives us 334 points. Expected range is 24,100 on the downside to 24,700 on the upside. That is a 668 point band for an expiry day. A normal pinning Tuesday gives you 100 to 150 points.

This one is pricing 330 points each side. The options market is telling you to respect the move, do not fade it. And here is the part for the direction. The chain, option chain restructured in a bullish shape. Put writers unwound almost 31 lakhs on 23,000 strike. They built up 500 points higher at 23,500. 23,700 added 18 lakhs. So the floor has moved up. Call writers covered far OTM calls. 26,500, 26,000 lost 42 lakhs. 25,500 lost 31 lakhs. 2 crore contracts of upside protection gone.

They stacked a new wall at 24 500 and that wall sits inside the expected range. That is the trap not the ceiling. So the map is simple. Floor is at 24 100 24 000 there is a brick wall. Trap is set at 24 500 is the bait. Everything between it is contested. Let's look at some positioning as well to see what is happening. Pro flipped back long to 3671 futures. On Friday they were short. This is a 5799 contract reversal in one session.

On the top of that they decided and added 7000 long calls and they doubled their long put to 1,42,000 as well. Pro is long the direction and long the volatility. They are not pinning. They are hedged for a big move either way. FII sold around 1059 crore in cash on Monday but look at where they went. FII has bought 641 crore of Nifty futures. They sold 404 crore of Bank Nifty. Net index futures plus 160 crores. FII sold the cash market and bought the index future.

That is either short covering or a hedge or a reset. Either way it is not fresh shorting. The FII short book in futures is down to 1 lakh 89 000 contracts from 87 000 peak a week ago. The covering trade is running out of fuel. So let's look at clients as well. Client is where the setup gets spicy. Client is long 140 000 futures. Client is short 495 000 puts. The short put book doubled in a session. The retail is short vol into the expiry.

Retail is max bullish and retail has been wrong at every turn since the past few days. When Pro is hedged both ways and the client is short vol and long direction, the smart trade is go with the pros and against the client. That means expect a move, do not sell premium naked and lean the bias from pros futures book. So pro is long. So DII at plus 66 000. So this is an overnight tape what we are looking at. And here's my view.

Buy on dips continues. Expect volatility, mean reversion inside a wider range. One big move before the day closes. The gap up above yesterday's high of 24,480 will stand up first resistance. First question is whether we hold 24,400 in the first 30 minutes or not. If yes, 24,500 is the trap and I'm a seller there the first time because retail calls get squeezed at the wall before the crack through happens. If 24 500 holds and they cover and flip the long for the squeeze to happen and the rally to continue to 24 700 that would be a short covering rally and that would be coming in fast.

If we fade and the gap loses to 24 300, expect the flush down to 24 200 for sure. That is your first dip to buy. 24 100 is the next buy zone and 24 000 is like the bottom what we could see below which everything changes. The mean reversal trade today is to buy the dip. Vol gets expensive. Every dip into 24 100 to 300 zone in this on the spot is either to go long with the futures with the tight stop or buy short dated 24 300 call and ride the vol crush back up.

The 48 percent IV expansion has to pay itself back. That is the theta trap the retail short put book is walking into from the other side. What I am not doing today is I am not playing for the pinning. I am not selling 24 200 and 24 500 strangle that is a 300 point strangle. Not at IV of 21, not with futures book that is stretched, not on an expiry day which is much the chain migration what we are seeing. Big moves happen when positioning is crowded.

Positioning is crowded right now. Keep a watch on that, guys. Tuesday's call. One. We see a 300 plus point range. Expected range was 24,050 to 24,700. I think we touch both in the middle. Two, pro long futures plus FII short covering plus Asia's strength pull us towards that 24,500 to 24,700 zone first. Three. 24,500 does not break clean. It rejects at least once. That is the trap. Four. The dip from the rejection is viable to 24,150 to 350 levels. Five. Close comes in above 24,400 on bullish scenario.

Below 24,200 on the bearish scenario. My lean is bullish because put writers do not migrate up by 500 points and let the market break their new floor the next day. 6 back into the mid teens that is around 15 16 level. That is where the short straddle sellers who waited for the pop get paid. Not the ones who sold on Friday at 14 and a half to 15. What if I'm wrong. I'm wrong because the crude pullback was not deep enough, the dollar ticked up and global risk turned on us on the mid session.

40 and Brent reclaiming 96 is going to be the key. RupeeCase Nifty book is on day two post rebalance. AXISBANK and TECHM are the new adds. DRREDDY and JSW are out. 05. The strategy is live. com. You can go and have a check. Next review is on May 4th. com. The episode streams there too as well. So prediction trail has been going well. Today's edge is simple. Buy the dips, respect the volatility, expect a move, not a pin, go with the pros and play against the client.

So full data snapshot I have added and this was today's edge for you guys. See you again once again on April 22nd Wednesday. Till then have a happy expiry and stay smart, stay safe and happy trading for today.