Pro reversed in 24 hours. Hedge while vol is cheap

a very good morning guys pros flipped on Thursday and we told you Friday they flipped back added 1,22,000 long calls dumped 66,000 puts the fastest reversal we have seen in recent times was the bear flip real or was it a one day trade meanwhile dh just sold 8,000 crores in two sessions while fis quickly bought cash the handoff is happening and crude just went from 102 to 95 to 90 and back to 98 again today I am going to break down what actually changed over the weekend and why the hedge window is open right now and what option chain is telling you about tomorrow's expiry this is the message episode 22 let's go so gift if the this morning guys is trading up by 47 points from Friday's close modest gap up what we are seeing not the 24 5 50 or 600 we saw friday evening gift already pulled back to from 24 600 to 24 500 to 24 400 overnight and now is sitting around 24 450.

The gap up is narrowing. Friday's close, Nifty was up by 150 points, opened at 24,160, crashed to 24,080 in the first 90 minutes, then rallied 276 points to close near the day high at 24,371. Classic V -shape recovery. The first rally second was played out again on Friday. 58, Asia recovered but Gift Nifty 24 -4 -50 is the smallest gap up in the region. Commodities, Crude, this is the story of the week, Monday 13th April, Brent was at 102 on Hormuz Square.

Wednesday it was 95. Friday it crashed to 90. And today it is back to 95, up 5 % from Friday. WTI same pattern. 83 Friday to 88 to today up by 6%. So crude went from 102 to 95 to 90 to 98 in 7 days. That is not a trend. That is noise. Do not build your thesis on crude right now. Just know the direction is lower from 102. 80 usd inr still below that 93 so crude down plus dollar down equals rupee tailwind that is good for import heavy india this is the most important section we are going to cover today so if i have positioning प्रोस थर्स्डे वी टोल यू प्रोस फ्लिप शॉर्ट फ्यूचर्स माइनस 6300 डम 93 परसेंट अब देर लॉंग कॉल्स आडेड फिफ्टी वन थाउसेंड लॉंग पूटर नेट वास कन्विक्शन शॉर्ट फ्राइडी दी रिवर्स बैक फ्यूचर्स बैक टू माइनस 21 28 added one lakh twenty two thousand long calls dumped sixty six thousand puts pro went from maximum bearish to neutral bullish in options within six and a half hours of trade what does that tell you it tells you that thursday's short was an expiry trade tray not structural call pros used sensex expiry to play the downside collected the premium and then repositioned for the continuation f is still short stating around one lakh ninety thousand short contracts covered around 10,000 crores over Thursday and Friday combined.

Compare that with 87,000 crores covered on Wednesday alone. The covering pace has collapsed by 90%. The panic phase is over. 1,90,000 shots will be a slow grind, not a squeeze. Think weeks, not days. But here's the shift. If I cash flow flipped, three straight days of buying, plus 666 Wednesday, plus 282 Thursday plus 683 Friday first time in April that FIS has been a cash buyer for three consecutive sessions index futures flow also turned positive from at 1,278 crores on Friday clients on the other hand trimmed for the first time futures from one lakh forty two thousand have come down to one lakh thirty one thousand dump two lakh long calls covered one lakh ten thousand short put client is taking profit and reducing risk that is actually healthy when clients euphoria feeds the market has more room to run diaz this is the surprise diaz sold forty seven hundred crores on friday 3400 crores on Thursday, that's total 8000 crores sold by DI in two days.

DI's have been the buyer all the month while FI has sold. DI's selling into FI buying when the domestic institutions hand off to foreign institutions, it usually means DI's think the easy money from Lowe's is done. They are locking in profits from March to April rally. 17 down 5 % options are pricing almost nothing one standard deviation range plus or minus is trading at roughly 400 points that gives you 23,950 or 24,000 on the downside to upside of around 24,700 through the expiry The chain shifted up.

Wednesday's Max Payne was at 24,200 with 47,00,000 OI and 46,00,000 put OI. Friday, 24,200 call OI dropped by 28,00,000. New Max Payne stands 100 points higher to 150 points higher, around 24,300 to 400 zone. Call wall or the resistance stands at 24,500 is the fortress. 08 ऑलमोस्ट फ्लाट ओके एंड गैक्स पॉजिटिव गैमा अबाव देख 24 250 लेवेल नेगेटिव बिलो 24 100 लेवेल सो बिलो बिलो and above a 24 200 or 250 the Max spin and mean reversion happens below 24 100 momentum takes over and below after a 24 300 the momentum fades slightly and we enter into a pullback mean reversion rain once again the range for Tuesday's expiry is 24 200 is your support range on the upside we have 24 500 if broken we could easily see expiry happening towards 24 700 keep a watch on that as well so Fridays Friday's sectorial shift was very strong.

IT confirmed from Thursday. Finance, auto, metal, pharma, realty all strong and all showing strength. Even FMCG also started showing strength on Friday. When everything flashes green simultaneously, it means one of the two things. Either the market is in the early phase of broad rally where it... com or stream it on amazon apple music or spotify see you all guys on tuesday tomorrow expiry stay tuned for more updates