Brent cracked 104. GIFT gap down. Buy the floor with a hedge

a very good morning guys i called a range on friday the wide wing held by 250 points the tight pin breached by 24 points and banks broke the long carry first i should have been celebrating the wing i was not because the iran tail came back at noon on friday by sunday night Brent cracked at $104 by Monday open. Gift is down by 179 points. The wing, the chain priced Friday, is about to pay this morning. This is the Tanmay Edge, India's pre -market edge.

I am Tanmay Kurtaguti. Season 2, episode 36. Let's go. Three numbers run this morning. 65 on international print up. 31 % over the weekend from 101 that settled on Friday. 07. The state of Hormuz priced a fresh weekend escalation. The fragile ceasefire that held Saturday cracked overnight in the tape, if not on the wires. Gift Nifty is trading around 24,060, down 179 points. 74 % against Friday's cash close of 24,176. We opened near the 24,000 floor on the first tick. US closed records on Friday high.

So S &P closed at an all -time high of 7398. NASDAQ was trading at 26,247 at an all -time high on Friday. Both built on April jobs. By Monday morning, Dow futures is down by 150 points. The US has already started giving back the gains. Two desks read the same Iran tale differently. Friday, the gap was 175 basis points in one session. The morning, the gap is closing. Asia is also split now. 55, catching up. 29%. Hang Seng down... 47%. 5%.

94 % because oil importers got punished. 6%. The split tells you the world is not at all bearish. The oil importers are 100 % are and India is the oil importer. 96. 39. 47. The rupee held below 95 even when the Brent was at 104. That is the only good news on the macro card this morning. Now let's read the chain and see where the balance is happening. So 24,200 was the magnet on Friday. 61 lakh contracts in one session at one strike.

Largest single session right we have seen in recent times. Writers picked a magnet not a direction. They also said this is where the fight will be so 24 500 acts as a wall that is the resistance 98 lakh contracts on 24 500 and 25 500 that is thousand points out added around 43 lakh contracts in one session and the total oi stands at 1 crore 16 lakhs 1000 points apart but that is not where we are going to enter right now monday trades in between that so 24 000 is the floor or the support 72 lakh have been written over there 23 500 is the second level where the deep floor stands at 81 lakh contracts over there and 23 000 that is the ultra deep floor where around 73 lakh contracts are present 68 lakh contracts added on that on friday itself the chain built three floors then it built the deepest one of the deepest that was available writers priced 23,000 harder than 23 500 in one session that is the chain saying that 23,000 does not break either the wing math so ATM straddle of 24 200 is trading around 291 that gives us an input range of 364 points on either side which is 23 812 on the bottom end to 24 540 on the upper end gift nifty opens at 24 060 248 points above the floor but 480 points up below the ceiling the wing started to play before the cash opened So now my POV.

Buy on dips continues with a hedge. The hedge costs more today. Pay it anyway. Listen carefully. The buy zone is the floor 23,950 to 24,050. We are there at the first tick if gift holds. 85 on friday monday the print goes higher this is a long gamma day long gamma rules when wall is going to go up and spot is moving fast you buy options you don't sell them selling premium today is the wrong side of the trade buying premium is the right side stand down on the premium selling until the wix comes back to 17 or in the second half you can sell some option three branches that i'm watching in the first are base case 50 probability spot around 24 050 to 24 100.

test 23 950 bounces back to 24 200 fades around 24 200 broken pin floor as a resistance rents the morning premium selling later only if wix cracks below that 17 mark escalation we get escalated and spot prints 23 812 the 23 500 floor that the chain built bigger than uh 24 000 in one session becomes the life test episode 30 playbook is back wings rent week Hedge first, cash second. That is the motto. And the third option that is de -escalation.

That is around 15 % probability. Brent retraces to 100 zone by noon. 3. Spot retakes 24 -200 easily. Range frames revives. Buy on dips continues and 24 -50 holds on. Banks rebid. resumes so branch triggers active for the first hour keep a watch on these three branches brent prints above 105 confirms escalation below 100 confirms de -escalation man nifty futures basis at the open a positive means if i unwound the unwind negative or wider means the long carry stays broken so chain at 11 30 tells you whether the short calls came off or stayed on yesterday and here's the lesson that you have to take Bands always hold, guys.

Points never do. Three sessions in a row, direction was the right and levels were tight under one ATR. ATR is average rule range. Episode 33, wall flexed by 30 points. Episode 34, magnet held by 44 points. Episode 35, floor breached by 24 points. Three session of the chain taking in the bands and me predicting those points. This week, I trade the band. The chain calls the lead. The hedge does the work for me. for today is when the wing pays you the hedge graduates to buy the 23 800 put i called as wing protection on friday is the same option that opens as the buy this morning the chain does not reprice it as a different contract the trader has to read it as a different rule friday it was insurance monday it is hedge under fresh longs at 24 50 spot if you are buying same put does two jobs One more thing guys, today is the rebalance day for rupee case nifty 10.

The portfolio rotates on Monday morning. Last reshuffle delivered 33 basis points of alpha on day 1. com. com india's first systematic investing terminal i am building also streaming on apple podcast spotify amazon music youtube please give it a thumbs up and give it a rating if you like it share it with one trader friend who needs it right now would love to read your reviews as well and today have a hedged monday thank you guys