A very good morning guys. Pros went from 85,000 long calls to just 5,800 in one session. That's 93 % liquidation. They didn't trim, they didn't hedge, they just dumped it. Then they loaded 51,000 new puts. Then they doubled their short futures from 2,500 to 6,300. And FIS? FIS covered 87,000 contracts on Tuesday. Yesterday they did 1,700 contracts and that's done. 87 from the number that started the march sell -off today i am going to show you exactly what pro is positioning for why fis is covering is finished and what the call wall at 24 300 to 24 500 means for the nifty expiry next week Let's get into it.
So India's pre -market edge cutting through the noise so you can trade with clarity. I am Tanmay Kurthakoti, Season 2, Episode 21. Let's go. So Gift Nifty guys is trading at 24,179 this morning. Mildly green, just 8 points up. Looks calm on the surface. But look underneath. Nikkei is down 486 points. 82%. Hang Seng is down 208 points. Shanghai is also down. Asia is not buying yesterday's rally. 56 why does this matter the march sell -off remember what triggered it crude above hundred dollars mark Brent crossed 102 and FIS pulled a plug on India.
We got a 420 point day on Nifty. 5 lakh crore in a month. Now we are just 180 bips away from that $100 mark. And this time, FIS just finished the biggest short covering we have seen in recent times. If crude crosses $100, that covering reverses. Gold is sitting at 4791 flat. 20 slightly stronger. The headline is gift nifty is just trading flat. The real story is 98 dollars at crude and Asia selling. But let's look at the pro FI and client positioning as well.
So pros, index futures went from minus 2500 to 6300 lots. That's doubling down on short in one day. Index calls, 85,000 longs they were holding. Now they are holding just 5000 calls. That's a 93 % exit on the calls, not a trim and exit. Index puts, they were holding 83,000 puts. Now they are holding 1,34,000 puts. new puts what does that mean when a particular participant exits their call longs and add puts long at the same time that's not hedging hedging would be adding puts while keeping the calls this is a full directional reversal the call exits say they don't want any upside anymore the put addition says they are betting on the downside together that's the strongest bearish signal in the participant we have seen in the recent trial So let's look at FIs as well.
So futures, they have around 1,98,000 contracts open. They covered just 1,700 contracts yesterday. On Tuesday, they covered 87,000. That's a 98 % deceleration in covering speed. On the options side, they added 50,000 call shots and 46,000 long puts. Even while covering futures, they are building downside protection in the options market. And the cash market saw something different. FI has bought 382 crore yesterday for the second straight day. But April month till date is 39,000 crore negative they have already sold. The buying is tactical, not a trend flip.
And on the client side. maximum bullishness has been added added around 1,30,000 long calls yesterday so now sitting at 2,00,000 long calls sold another 98,000 puts so short puts now stand at 5,50,000 I've seen this pattern before. So pros flipping, clients stayed long and market just dropped 700 points over the next three sessions. The data doesn't lie, narratives do. And that's the reason we have to keep a watch on all these levels. So let's look at some options data as well.
Yesterday, Nifty opened at 24,385, gapped up of 100. 54 points hit that 24 400 zone then sold off 300 points to 24 100 recovered slightly towards that 24 200 mark that's gap up fade in textbook distribution 35 of the 50 nifty stocks closed in green but the index closed in red institutional selling into retail buying that is happening now the option chain for next week's expiry call wall is at 24 300 that is 30 lakh new oi is present 24 400 carries around 40 lakh new oi and that's the biggest single strike 24 500 has 26 lakh new oi highest total oi stands at 24 500 around 68 lakhs combined 98 lakh new call oi in just three strikes that's the fortress nifty isn't going through that easily so your resistance stands at 24 300 to 24 500 levels on the put side 24 000 put added 41 lakhs of oi and 23 800 has around 38 lakhs of oi okay ATM straddle at 24,200 is trading around 373 points down from 445 yesterday.
So one standard deviation implied moves gives you 460, 70 points. That's 23, 730 on the downside. And on the upside, it is capped at 24,600. So gamma flip level is at 24,200. 80 so still in the negative zone that is cell iv is recommended but let's see what is the key level as well so 24 200 that's the line below which acceleration above which choppiness with this call wall above the pros loaded short the path of least resistance is sideways to down into monday that is what i can see for the weekly glows so let's look at some sectors as well so Wix is a sell.
Top sectors right now is defense, CNX metal, small cap. So metals rallied around 4 % yesterday, powered by the commodity spike. Wipro reported after the close net profit of 3500, 12 % year and over year profits and they announced a 15,000 crore buyback. 62%, might be partially priced in, but the buyback is significant. com So now the educational point, when you see a participant dump their call longs and add put longs on the same day, don't confuse it with hedging. Hedging means you are protecting an existing position.
You keep the calls, you add the puts as an insurance, that's hedging. What Pro did yesterday is different. They exited their long calls, then they added puts, not insurance. That's a directional bet. The exit tells you, I don't want upside anymore. tells you i'm positioning for downside when both signals fire together from the same participant that's conviction and in the participant hierarchy pro always leads remember that fi as follows clients is usually on either side of the winning winning game so my read for today the squeeze printed yesterday 24 200 held but the chapter isn't closed now look at what is front of us pro is convinced with shorts fir's covering has stopped and client is maximum bullish crude is at 98 asia is selling it's friday weekend ahead i wouldn't carry heavy overnight positions into the weekend if crude breaks hundred dollars over the weekend monday opens with a gap down and a call wall of 24 300 to 25 24 500 becomes irrelevant prediction wise dip first rally second was yesterday's call and was partially hit the dick came the rally was weak today i'm saying some sell -off expected 24 200 is that line below that acceleration so go light into the weekend the market rewards patience and punishes conviction without evidence So that's your edge for today, guys.
If this added value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I'm building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes you just got earlier, guys. See you all on Monday once again.
