87,636. That is the number of index future shorts FII covered in a single session yesterday. Biggest single day short covering since we started tracking. Nifty closed at 24,231 above my 24,200 line. Sensex broke 78,000 after long time. 76. But here's the part nobody is talking about. While FII was covering, pro flipped. Proprietary traders went from a net long of 3600 to a net short of 2600 and they added 18,000 long puts into the rally. Smart money covered their shorts and immediately started building downside protection at the highs.
Today is Sensex weekly expiry. Gift Nifty is trading around 24,317. Small gap up. Asia is also ripping. 45%. Kospi is plus 2%. But my read for this morning is different from yesterday. Volatility could spike early. We could see lower levels first. And if we do, the second half rally is where you want to be positioned for. So welcome to the Tanmay Edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2. Episode 20. Let's go. The overnight story is continuation, not acceleration. S&P 500 at 7,000.
That is above 7,000 for the first time in a long time. 6% at 24,016. Dow flat at 48,000. So US tech is leading. Dow is lagging. That divergence tells you this is a growth-led rally, not a broad risk-on. And growth-led rallies can reverse faster. Europe was mixed yesterday. 47. 64. DAX barely green. So Europe is not confirming the US move. This is a yellow flag for anyone assuming global synchronized upside. Asia this morning is in the bright spot. 45% up. This is a monster move.
26% up. Kospi is 2% up. 47%. Asia is confirming. And India at 24,317 on Gift Nifty is the smallest gap up in the region. Let's talk about commodities as well. Brent at $95 stable. 60. MCX crude at 8641. The crude scare from Monday at 102 is fully absorbed. US-Iran peace talks formally renewed overnight. That is the primary driver keeping crude contained. Each day crude stays below 96. That is another day of reduced import pressure on the current account. So gold is trading at 4814 still elevated but doing strong.
Dollar index at 98 still weak. Dollar weakness plus gold strength and Asia ripping. That's a combination that has the tailwind for Indian equities all week. So let's talk about the participant book as well. This is the segment that matters the most today because the positioning just changed character. So let's start with pro and let's look at it. Pros went from a net long of 3600 contracts on Monday to a net short of 2600 contracts yesterday on the futures side. That is a full 180 degree flip.
And it happened on the strongest rally of the week. Pro does not flip short on accident. They flip because they think the easy money from FII squeeze is done. But it gets deeper. Pro also added around 18,000 long puts on the option side. So futures short plus long puts, that is a directional bet that the market comes down. Not a hedge, a bet. At 78,000 on Sensex and 24,200 on Nifty at the highs. Let's see what has happened on FII as well.
The headline, 87,000 shorts covered, minus 2,88,000 to 2,00,000 outstanding futures contract on the negative side. That is a 30% reduction in their short book in one session. The covering was aggressive. But here's the math problem. 87,000 shorts got covered, which means they still have around 2,00,000 shorts remaining. That is still the largest short book of the year. They covered from the peak, but they are nowhere near flat and the covering velocity matters. If they covered 87,000 in panic, the next 20, 30, 50 thousand will come slower.
The urgency is fading. So let's look at some cash flows also. FII cash flow from yesterday was plus 666 crore for the first positive day after 2000 crore of selling on Monday. So the futures covering plus cash buying, but the scale is tiny. 666 crore against a month where they have sold 40,000 crore already. That is not conviction buying. That is just short covering driven flow. On the other side clients are there and this is where it gets dangerous. Client is sitting at plus 1,37,000 on the future side.
Record short puts at 4,55,000. Plus they added around 26,000 long calls yesterday as well. Chasing into strength. Maximum bullish positioning at the high on the move is what client is doing. And the crowd at maximum bullish is historically the contrarian warning signal. So the picture is this. Pro has flipped short and is hedged. FII has covered the panic portion but remains heavily short. Client is max maximum bullish with no protection. That configuration typically means the next 200 point move is more likely down than up.
Not because the trend is broken, but because the fuel for the squeeze is burning out. So that takes us to today's Sensex expiry. And the setup has shifted dramatically from where we were three days ago. Monday, the magnet for Sensex expiry was roughly around 77,000. That is dead now. Sensex closed yesterday at 78,111. 1100 points above the old pin. So the new magnet currently stands at 77,800 to 78,400. So that's a 600 point zone that we are concentrating right now. The ATM straddle currently at 78,200 is trading around 677.
That implies an intraday expected move of plus and minus 850 points. Which gives 79,000 on the upside and on the bottom side roughly around 77,500. So with pro short and client max long this is a wide range for a single day expiry. The market is pricing volatility today, not calmness. 28. 19 on Monday. Put sellers dominate. But remember, PCR at this level into expiry with pro short can also mean that the put sellers are about to get tested. If we dip towards 77,300 to 77,500 in the first half, those short puts bleed fast.
On Nifty, 24,200 is the max pain pin for 21st April right now. 47 lakh call OI and 46 lakh put OI both loaded at 24,200. Yesterday alone 34 lakh calls and 44 lakh puts were added on 24,200. Both sides are building. That strike is now the most contested level in the market. The 21st April straddle is at 445. 39. 41 yesterday morning. Minus 15% in one session. IV at 17 and VIX at 18 means options are pricing almost no further upside in vol.
If vol does spike today morning, as I expect, that creates a repricing opportunity. Call walls on Nifty sit at 24,200 and 24,500 with 41 lakh OI and 24,600 at 29 lakh OI. Put support stands at 24,200 then 24,000 with 29 lakh OI and 23,800 at 28 lakh OI. The range the chain is defining is 24,200 to 24,500 this week with 24,200 as the pivot. Let's talk about some sectors and what the screener is telling us as well. So IT flipped from neutral to strong buy.
83% on the day yesterday. That is significant because IT has been the biggest underperformer of the quarter. If IT follows through today, that is fresh money entry, not short covering. We have Wipro Q4 results due today. If the number is even decent, IT gets another leg up. FMCG flipped the other way, neutral to sell. Defensives are getting dumped. When FMCG and Pharma sell while IT and Metals rally, that is a classic risk-on rotation. Money is leaving safety and chasing beta. That works until it doesn't.
62%. Banking delivered. SBI, HDFC Bank, ICICI all moved. HDFC Bank Q4 results are due this Friday. That is the next potential catalyst for the banking group. India VIX escalated to strong sell. The screener is telling you that vol is dying. But here's the nuance. 5 with strong sell means the screener expects VIX to keep falling. If instead VIX spikes above 20 this morning on expiry day dynamics, that is a divergence from the signal. And divergences are where the real edge is.
Keep a watch on that as well. Reliance remains still weak and Reliance has not participated in the entire move. If Reliance stays dead, Nifty has a ceiling. If Reliance turns even neutral, then 24,400 opens up immediately. And let's look at something I want you to remember, not just for today, but for every cycle. When pro flips from net long to net short at the high of a rally, it is the single most reliable mid-cycle top signal in Indian F&O space. Pro traders are not hedge funds managing a quarterly book.
They are day-to-day operators. They flip fast. They flip early. And they flip at the highs because they have the discipline to sell into the strength. Yesterday pro's direction went from positive to negative. So that combination of short futures plus long puts is not a hedge. It's a directional bet that the rally pauses. Now pair that with client. Clients added on the other side 26,000 long calls and is sitting on 4,55,000 short puts. That is the crowd saying the rally goes higher.
When pro and client disagree at extremes, pro wins most of the time. Not always, but enough times that the signal matters. Does it mean we crash? No. It means the easy money from the squeeze is done. The next move requires a new catalyst. And until that catalyst arrives, the market might consolidate over here. And that's where my read comes in. Buy on dips continues. The view has not changed. What has changed is the intraday pattern I am expecting. This morning, volatility could spike.
Sensex expiry dynamics, overnight gap-up processing, and the fact that GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,317 is a modest gap up into heavy call OI at 24,200 to 24,500. That combination can create early selling pressure. If we see Nifty dip towards 24,100 to 24,200 or Sensex towards 77,500 to 78,000 in the first 90 minutes, that is the dip. Second half, the rally could resume. Expiry day pinning plus DII buying plus the fact that FII still has two lakh shorts that need covering over the next few days.
The covering will come, just not all at once. So watch VIX. If it stays below 19, the dip is shallow and the rally extends into Friday. If VIX spikes above 21, respect it. The market is telling you that the pro flip mattered. And that is where you need to watch. So RupeeCase Nifty portfolio, three days post rebalance. 55%. So that's 10 bips of alpha. 27% yesterday itself. 35%. Both new adds are contributing. com. That is the read guys. So the squeeze printed.
Now we trade the aftermath. Dip first, rally second. This is the pattern for expiry Thursday. So that's your edge for today guys. If this added value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I am building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. Link is present in the show notes. You just got earlier guys. See you all once again tomorrow, that is on Friday.
