FY27 opens with a bang

The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, Episode 11 Clean Transcript (As Recorded) **Date:** 1 Apr 2026, **Duration:** ~8:06, **Host:** Tanmay Kurtkoti --- COLD OPEN Very good morning. GIFT Nifty is trading at 22,769, almost up by 400 points. FY27 just opened with a bang. And Brent crude crashed from $116 to $105, that's a 9% drop. Gold is also rallying at $4,694, and Dollar Index broke below 100. Nasdaq rallied almost 4%. FY26 ended in blood. FY27, full risk is on. Let me show you why.

India's pre-market edge. The numbers behind the noise. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 11. Let's go. --- SEGMENT 1, GLOBAL PICTURE & COMMODITIES Starting with the global picture, and it's green everywhere. Nasdaq was up 4% overnight. KOSPI almost 6%. 13%. This is a global rally, not just a relief bounce. And the real story that is happening is happening from the Iran-Israel war, where Brent crude is showing the actual results, which has crashed from $116 to $105. That's a 9% drop.

For India, this is the single most bullish macro signal right now. Lower oil, lower current account deficit, lower inflation pressure, lower RBI anxiety. That's all it is. So gold at $4,694 is good news again, and Dollar Index broke below 100. So dollar weakens plus oil crash, that's the exact combo India needs. And RBI is intervening to constrain rupee fall as well at 85. So let's see what happens to that as well today. So GIFT Nifty is telling you clearly, 22,800, plus almost 400 points from Monday.

So FY27 Day 1 is going to be a gap-up, and it's going to be hard. --- SEGMENT 2, PRO / FII / CLIENT POSITIONING But here's what the positioning data looks like, and the data says who is ready for this. So FII pulled almost ₹3,36,000 crores in derivatives in the month of March. That's more than double the worst previous month. It's historic. And that's huge. Currently on the **Pro** side, futures OI, they are holding almost 9,000 contracts. Calls, they have shorted 1 lakh calls.

And puts, they are long almost 34,000. So they are neutral if we look at futures plus calls plus put positioning. **Client and FII** have a different picture. FIIs have almost 2 lakh 64,000 futures short. Along with that, they have around 2 lakh 32,000 calls short. That means massive short position. 5 lakh plus puts that they have outstanding on the long side. So they are going to get hammered in the morning trade, and I am loving it. So **Clients** have 1 lakh 88,000 long futures.

Along with that, clients have 3 lakh 30,000 calls that are long. So that takes us almost to around 5 lakh 30-40 thousand contracts that are present on the long side. Plus additionally, they have sold puts of 4,25,000. So clients are massive long, whereas FIIs are massive shorts. **The edge:** FII short covering into a Brent crash, that's where the real move comes in, not retail buying anymore. --- SEGMENT 3, OPTIONS & LEVELS So now let's look at where the option market is setting up for this.

With GIFT Nifty opening at 22,800, we are looking at a 460-point gap-up. 22,400 straddle had closed around ₹768, so that is going to bounce back. If Nifty opens here and holds about 22,800 in the first 15 minutes, buying is real. Or else, we are going back to that 22,500 zone. So this becomes the first support on any pullback. 23,000 is the psychological resistance, where if we reclaim this, we could see a further rally happening. FII is sitting on 2,64,000 futures short.

If Nifty sustains about 22,800, short covering creates a feedback loop. That's the momentum play you have to play for. 39. So those are still elevated, premiums will be flat if you are selling options. But today is a day to sell options, and it's a great day for it as well. If you are buying, be careful of the IV crush that might happen after the gap-up. Clients are -4,25,000 short puts. If the gap-up holds, those short puts expire. But if FIIs cover fast and push Nifty through 23,000, that's the real squeeze I am watching for today.

--- SEGMENT 4, SECTORS & TK SCREENER So sectors, on Monday everything was bad and we sold off. As you are listening to the podcast, we told that 22,300 to 22,400 was that level where accumulation and a bounce could have been anticipated, and some buying could have been done. 56% down, worst sector. Banks were really the hardest hit. But banks rally also very fast on reversal. So keep a watch on that. 5%. So keep a watch on HDFC Bank as well as ICICI Bank, which is also up by more than 1%.

5% down on Monday. 8%, and RupeeCase Nifty 10 has it, but that's the rebalance risk. 2%, showing the least damage. 75% tonight. 46%, and that's the benefit we are seeing. **Oil & Gas**, Brent has crashed and it is mixed. ONGC gets hit the maximum, but downstream and OMCs benefit. So my watch for today: PSU Banks and Bank Nifty for reversal trades, metals for continuation, and avoid oil producers for today. --- SEGMENT 5, QUICK LESSON Now, a quick lesson. When Brent drops 9% in less than three days while global equities rally, that's a regime shift, not a random move.

India imports 80% of its oil. Every dollar drop in Brent saves roughly around ₹12,000 crores on the annual import bill. 3 lakh crores in annual savings on Day 1 of FY27. That changes the entire macro calculation. --- SEGMENT 6, TANMAY'S READ So my bias for today, the risk, full on. I'm going in. Is this a dead cat bounce? Probably yes. But I'll wait for 23,000 to be broken, which will confirm the 22,800 support level. Expecting a consolidation for the first few minutes, half an hour where we could see some sell-off happening towards that 22,600 to 22,700 levels, and could be a good buy on dips that can be taken.

FII is in deep short. Short covering into this setup creates a momentum feedback loop. I am watching Nifty to sustain about 22,700. If that does, FY27 starts with momentum. --- SEGMENT 7, CTA On RupeeCase's dashboard right now, Nifty Momentum 10 closed FY26 with 9% alpha over Nifty. 9%. Systems don't panic. FY27 Day 1, the strategy is positioned in metals, energy, and banks. Exactly the sectors that benefit from yesterday's move. com. If you are reacting to headlines, you are already late. That's your edge for today.

If this added value, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. Building RupeeCase, India's first systematic investing terminal. Link in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you all tomorrow once again. --- *Total runtime: ~8:06*