01Market overview
The last trading day of FY25-26. GIFT Nifty down 238. Brent at 116. Asia in freefall.
And GIFT Nifty? Down 238. Opening at 22,589.
This is the last trading day of FY25-26. And it might be the ugliest one yet.
(Beat.)
(~55s) SEGMENT 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES
(Measured pace. Let the numbers hit.)
Let me start with why your screen is red this morning.
US markets reversed hard on Friday. S&P 500 closed at 6,368, down 108 points, minus 1.67%. Nasdaq finished at 20,948, down 459, minus 2.15%. Dow futures this morning: 45,017, still sliding, minus 0.33%.
Europe was no better. DAX lost 312 points, minus 1.4%. CAC down 67, minus 0.87%. FTSE barely held, minus 0.05%.
And then Asia opened.
Nikkei crashed 2,418 points. That's minus 4.53%. KOSPI down 219, minus 4.21%. Hang Seng lost 506, minus 2.03%. Taiwan minus 1.94%. Jakarta minus 1.45%. Shanghai minus 0.61%.
Everything is red. Everywhere.
GIFT Nifty: 22,589. Down 238 points. Minus 1.05%.
That's where we're opening. And remember, today is the last trading day of FY25-26. Tomorrow is Mahavir Jayanti. Friday is Good Friday. You get 3 trading days this week. That's it.
Signal price: 23,033.70. Nifty closed Friday at 22,910. That's 123 points below signal. With GIFT Nifty at 22,589 this morning, we're now 444 points below signal. Deeply bearish.
Projected price from the model: 22,812. We're already trading below that. VaMaxima at 24.65, elevated. Sell Softness reading at 25. When softness is this high, the selling is not impulsive. It's structural.
02F&O positioning
(~90s) SEGMENT 2: PRO / FII / CLI
(This is THE segment. Slow down. Let it land.)
Now let's talk about who's doing what. And this is where it gets really interesting.
Start with Pro. Proprietary desks. The side changers. As of Friday's close, Pro is sitting net short approximately 1,70,000 contracts in futures. That's not a hedge. That's a directional bet. Pro is saying: more pain ahead.
Client is sitting net long. 1,34,000-plus contracts. While Pro and FII are pressing shorts, retail is holding long positions.
Let me say that again. Smart money, both Pro and FII, on 1 side. The crowd on the other.
If you've been listening to this podcast, you know how this usually ends.
(Pause.)
The data doesn't lie. Narratives do.
FII/DII Positioning (Fri 27 Mar EOD)
Week Calendar
03Options & GEX analysis
And they're not just selling. They're writing calls. Heavy call writing at higher strikes. That tells you FII doesn't expect a recovery. They're getting paid to bet against the upside.
Now the Client segment. Retail. The crowd.
(~75s) SEGMENT 3: OPTIONS + LEVELS
(Technical. Precise. Numbers-heavy.)
TK Screener signal from Friday's close: Sell.
04Commodities & FX
Brent crude just crossed 116 dollars.
Nikkei is down 2,418 points. KOSPI minus 4.2%. Hang Seng minus 2%.
Now commodities. Brent crude: 116 dollars and 2 cents. Up 3.45, plus 3.07%. WTI crude: 102.44, up 2.80. Gold pulled back slightly to 4,464. Dollar index flat at 100.15. And the rupee? USDINR at 94.81, up 0.88%.
ONGC, up 4.03%. When Brent is at 116, oil producers win. COALINDIA, up 0.32%. POWERGRID, up 0.24%. Energy and power are holding.
What's getting crushed? Financials. SHRIRAMFIN down 5.54%. SBIN down 3.90%. TATASTEEL down 1.76%. When FII sells, banks bleed first.
This pain is not going away soon. Iran is widening its targets. Trump is talking about taking Kharg Island. Brent is above 116. The war is costing 3 billion dollars a day. FII has pulled over 1 lakh crore from India in 1 month. And the rupee is at 94.81.
Commodities & Currencies (30 Mar, 08:06 IST)
05Sector watch
(~60s) SEGMENT 4: SCREENER + SECTORS
(Shift to what's working, what's not.)
The TK Screener from Friday's close: every single index was red. Not 1 green rating. Every sector, every benchmark, negative. The screener rated the market Strong Bearish.
But today's Nifty Momentum portfolio is telling a different story in terms of sector selection.
And this is exactly why sector selection matters right now. Don't rush and buy everything. Pick the right sectors.
Pharma, metals, energy, IT. That's where the smart money CIO at Bajaj Alts is positioned. That's where the flows are going. Stay away from NBFCs and rate-sensitive plays for now.
But markets don't go straight down forever. I'm watching 22,300 to 22,400 for a bounce. Not a bottom. A bounce. If you're looking to deploy, that's the zone. And when you do, pick the right sectors. Don't buy the index. Buy energy, pharma, metals. Be surgical.
And here's the proof that systematic works.
The Nifty Momentum 10 portfolio on RupeeCase today: strategy down 0.91%. Benchmark, the Nifty 50, down 2%. That's over 1% of alpha in a single day. The model rebalanced on 27 March. Dropped BEL. Added DRREDDY. No emotion. No headlines. Just price momentum and rotation. The strategy has delivered 62.81% net returns with 9.01% excess alpha over the benchmark. Track it live on rupeecase dot com.
(~30s) CTA CLOSE
(Warm. Direct. Closing energy.)
06Trading plan & levels
...but here's the level I'm watching for the bounce.
(~15s) INTRO
(Intro sting plays.)
India's pre-market edge, before the noise hits. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 10. Let's go.
FII. Foreign institutional investors. In the cash market, they've pulled out 1,14,000 crore from Indian equities in March alone. That's roughly 12.3 billion US dollars. In derivatives, March outflows have crossed 1,30,000 crore. That's tracking toward October 2025 levels, the worst month we've seen in over a year.
Now levels.
Nifty's Friday range was 22,812 to 22,985. We're opening well below that.
The March future on Friday was at 22,802. We're slicing through that too.
Here's what I'm watching. The 22,300 to 22,400 zone.
That's where I think we could see a meaningful bounce. Not a reversal. A bounce. There's accumulated demand at those levels from the December and January consolidation.
But don't confuse a bounce with a bottom. This pain is not going away soon.
(~75s) SEGMENT 5: TANMAY'S READ
(Personal. This is TK's voice. Lean in.)
Let me give you the bigger picture.
07RupeeCase update
Host: Tanmay Kurtkoti, rupeecase.com
(~20s) COLD OPEN
(Punchy. Urgent. No intro music yet.)
Today is 30 March. The last trading day of Financial Year 2025-26. Tomorrow the market is shut. FY27 starts on Wednesday. And here's what the last day of a fiscal year means: every fund, every institution, every portfolio manager is marking to market today. This closing price goes on the annual report. It decides AUM, it decides performance fees, it decides bonuses. That's why selling pressure can intensify on days like this. Nobody wants to carry risk into a new fiscal year when crude is at 116 and FII is running for the exits.
My read?
That's your edge for today. If this added value, share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I'm building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow.
DATA APPENDIX
Reference data for recording. Not read aloud.
Global Indices (30 Mar, 08:01 IST)
RupeeCase Nifty Momentum 10 (30 Mar Live)
Strategy: -0.91% daily, Benchmark (Nifty 50): -2.00% daily, Alpha: +1.09% today
Overall: Gross Return 94.17%, Net Return 62.81%, Benchmark 53.80%, Excess Alpha +9.01%, CAGR 10.23%
Last Rebalance: 2026-03-27, Next Rebalance: 2026-04-13
Changes at 27 Mar rebalance: Dropped BEL. Added DRREDDY.