01Market overview
GIFT Nifty touched 23,500 overnight on ceasefire news. Right now, it's at 22,877. 600 points given back. The squeeze came, and it faded. It's expiry day, and 23,000 is the number everyone is watching. This is The Tanmay Edge.
INTRO STING (0:15 to 0:30)
India's pre-market edge, five minutes, every trading day. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 7. Let's go.
SEGMENT 1, Global Cues + Commodities (0:30 to 1:15, ~45 sec)
Let's start global. US markets were mixed overnight, S&P up 1.15%, Nasdaq up 1.38%, but the Dow actually slipped 0.25%. So the US couldn't hold a clean rally either.
Asia is modestly green this morning, Nikkei up 0.79%, Hang Seng up 1.27%, KOSPI up 1%. But nothing explosive. The ceasefire bounce is fading across the board, not just in India.
GIFT Nifty, and this is the big story, touched 23,500 overnight. Right now sitting at 22,877. That's a 600-point fade from the high. The initial ceasefire euphoria has been sold into.
In futures, FII deepened shorts to -2,43,961 contracts. That's 3 straight days of adding short positions. Now, they saw GIFT Nifty hit 23,500 overnight. Every short contract was underwater. But here's the twist, GIFT has faded 600 points from that high. If we open around 22,900, a lot of those shorts are still viable. The forced covering thesis weakens at these levels.
The traders who win consistently aren't smarter. They're earlier. You just got earlier.
It's expiry day. And the setup is tricky. We had ATM IV spike to 55% at Monday's close. GIFT Nifty gapped up 700 overnight but has faded back to 22,800. So where does that leave us?
GIFT Nifty touched 23,500 overnight on ceasefire news, then faded 600 points back to 22,877. The squeeze came and went. It's expiry day, IV is at 55%, and 23,000 is the number everyone is watching.
RSS.com TAGS
Stock Market • Investing • Finance • Trading • India • Pre-Market • Options • Nifty
CHAPTER MARKERS (paste into RSS.com)
1. "GIFT Nifty touched 23,500 overnight. Right now, 22,877. 600 points given back. The ceasefire squeeze came, and it faded. That tells you something about this market."
2. "FII deepened shorts to -2,43,000 contracts. Then GIFT hit 23,500. Then it faded 600. Imagine being short, seeing the squeeze, and then watching it come back to you. That's the kind of day this is."
GIFT Nifty hit 23,500 overnight.
Right now? 22,877. 600 points given back.
It's expiry. Here's your edge.
Tweet 2:
FII data (23 Mar): • Cash sold: -₹10,414 Cr (heaviest since 13 Mar) • Futures short: -2,43,961 contracts • Short calls: -2,54,875 • Long puts: +4,39,270
The squeeze started. Then it faded.
At 22,900, those shorts are still alive.
Tweet 3:
GIFT Nifty touched 23,500 overnight on ceasefire news... then gave back 600 points.
GIFT Nifty touched 23,500 overnight on ceasefire euphoria, then faded 600 points to 22,877. The squeeze came, and it went.
02F&O positioning
SEGMENT 2, FII/DII Data (1:15 to 2:15, ~60 sec), SIGNATURE SEGMENT
Let's go to the data. Monday's FII numbers were brutal. Cash selling, -₹10,414 Cr. That's the heaviest single day since March 13th. Cumulative FII cash selling this calendar year, -₹1,01,825 Cr. Let that sink in.
DII absorbed it, +₹12,034 Cr. Cumulative DII buying, ₹1,37,500 Cr. DIIs continue to be the wall between this market and a deeper correction.
Cold Open, Ceasefire fade + 600-point giveback Intro Global Cues, US mixed, crude bounces to $104, Asia modest FII/DII, ₹10,414 Cr selling + shorts at -2,43,961 Options, 23,000 call wall, IV crush, expiry pin setup TK Screener, All Strong Sell, watching for flip Tanmay's Read, IV Crush education + RupeeCase rebalance CTA
00:00, Cold Open: Ceasefire fade, 600-point giveback 00:15, Intro 00:30, Global: US mixed, crude bounces, Asia modest green 01:15, FII/DII: ₹10,414 Cr selling, shorts at -2,43,961 02:15, Options: 23,000 pin, IV crush, expiry dynamics 03:15, TK Screener: All Strong Sell, leadership rotation watch 04:00, Tanmay's Read: IV Crush + RupeeCase rebalance day 04:40, CTA
AUDIOGRAM QUOTES (pick sharpest for Reel)
03Options & GEX analysis
Episode: Season 2, Episode 7
Duration: ~5 minutes
Education: IV Crush
Filler Line: #4, "The traders who win consistently aren't smarter. They're earlier."
Named Setup: The Expiry Pin at 23,000
COLD OPEN (0:00 to 0:15)
SEGMENT 3, Options Setup + Key Levels (2:15 to 3:15, ~60 sec)
23,000 is the number. It has 74.93 lakh contracts of call open interest. That's a massive call wall. If we can't get above 23,000 today, it becomes the expiry pin. Market makers will defend that level.
Below that, 22,700 is the GEX resistance wall with +1,146 gamma exposure. And 22,500 was the ATM straddle strike, still the gamma flip zone.
Here's the expiry setup, I expect consolidation between 22,800 and 23,000. 23,000 as a pin strike for expiry cannot be ruled out. It's a difficult day for directional traders.
But for option sellers? This is your day. IV is elevated, 55% at close yesterday. The gap-up has happened. Now IV crush kicks in. Whether we go up or stay flat, premium is getting destroyed. Sellers who positioned into Monday's fear spike will be nimble today.
The TK Screener as of Monday's close, still flashing all Strong Sell across the board. Nifty, Bank Nifty, FinNifty, Midcap, Smallcap, all Strong Sell. The only Strong Buy is VIX. And IT is the lone Neutral, it was the relative outperformer on Monday, down just 0.18% while everything else fell 3-4%.
Now, the screener signal and the gap-up are telling two different stories. One says the structural trend is broken. The other says ceasefire changes the game. For today, I'm watching whether the gap-up survives. If Nifty closes above 23,000, the screener may start flipping. If we fade back below 22,800, the trend stays down.
Education Point (~20 sec), IV Crush
Today's education point, IV crush. When implied volatility spikes to extreme levels, like the 55% we saw at Monday's close, and the market gaps in one direction, that volatility collapses fast. Here's what it looks like today: Nifty opens near 22,900, that 22,500 straddle that was priced at ₹500? Even with market up 400 points, the straddle value can drop to ₹300. The move happened, but the premium still died. That's IV crush in action. Keep that in your toolkit.
POV (~25 sec)
Here's my read for today. The ceasefire gap-up is real, but the fade from 23,500 to 22,877 tells you the market isn't buying it blindly. It's expiry. Expect a grind, not a trend. 22,800 to 23,000 is the playground. Don't chase the gap-up and don't short the squeeze. Let expiry do its work. If 23,000 holds as the ceiling, that's your answer. If we break above it with volume, the short covering story comes alive again.
In today's episode: • Global cues, US mixed, crude bounces to $104, Asia modestly green • FII sold -₹10,414 Cr cash (heaviest since 13 Mar), cumulative selling crosses ₹1 lakh crore • FII shorts deepened to -2,43,961 contracts, squeeze fading at current levels • 23,000 call wall with 74.93L OI, THE expiry pin strike • IV Crush education, why your straddle loses money even when the market moves 400 points • RupeeCase Nifty 50 model held +0.38% alpha through the drawdown, rebalances today
TIMESTAMPS
3. "IV went to 55%. Market gaps up 400. Your straddle still loses money. That's IV crush, the move happened, but the premium died anyway. If you don't understand this, expiry day will teach you the hard way."
TWITTER THREAD
Tweet 1:
S2 EP7, The Ceasefire Fade, The Expiry Pin at 23,000
Expiry setup (24 Mar): • 23,000 = 74.93L call OI wall to THE pin strike • ATM IV spiked to 55% to IV crush incoming • Range: 22,800 to 23,000 consolidation zone • Difficult day for directional traders • Sellers win on the crush
Tweet 4:
Education: IV CRUSH
Market moves 400 pts up.
Your straddle STILL loses money.
IV went from 55% to crushing toward 30%.
The move happened but faster than premium could capture.
That's why selling fear spikes works, if you survive the night.
Tweet 5:
Listen now
Today's edge: FII sold ₹10,414 Cr, heaviest since 13 Mar FII shorts deepened to -2,43,961 contracts 23,000 = expiry pin strike (74.93L call OI) Education: IV Crush, why your straddle dies even on a 400-pt move
Listen now, link in bio
Key data points for today's expiry: to FII cash selling: -₹10,414 Cr (heaviest since 13 Mar) to FII net shorts: -2,43,961 contracts to 23,000 call wall: 74.93 lakh contracts to ATM IV: 55%, IV crush is the play
Education today: IV Crush, why option premiums die even when the market moves in your favour.
5 minutes. Every trading day. The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, Episode 7.
Listen on Apple Podcasts & Spotify.
04Commodities & FX
Now commodities, and this is important. Brent crude bounced back to $104, up 4%. So that 10% crash we talked about yesterday? Partially reversed. Crude is finding a floor. MCX crude at 8,321, barely down. Gold is still under pressure, international at $4,342, down 1.5%. MCX gold at ₹1,39,280, down 3.6%. The risk-off unwind in gold continues.
Dollar index steady at 99.33. Rupee at 93.97, holding that 94 handle.
05Sector watch
SEGMENT 4, TK Screener + Sectors (3:15 to 4:00, ~45 sec)
Sector-wise, banking took the worst hit Monday, Bank Nifty down 3.72%. Capital markets down 4.15%, worst sector. On any gap-up bounce, watch for leadership rotation into metals and IT, which showed relative strength through the sell-off.
06RupeeCase update
RupeeCase Read (~20 sec)
Here's what the RupeeCase Nifty 50 quant model is telling me, despite Monday's crash, the model held +0.38% alpha since the last rebalance on the 9th. POWERGRID was the only green stock, up 1.63%. The model rebalances today. Track the new portfolio composition live at RupeeCase, link in the show notes.
CTA CLOSE (4:40 to 5:00), WORD FOR WORD
That's your edge for today. If this added value, share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, never miss a session. I'm building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow.
EPISODE TITLE (for RSS.com)
S2 EP7: The Ceasefire Fade, The Expiry Pin at 23,000, 24 March 2026, Tuesday
PODCAST DESCRIPTION (paste into RSS.com)
Track the RupeeCase Nifty 50 model live: invest.rupeecase.com Subscribe: Apple Podcasts, Spotify
HASHTAGS
Track the RupeeCase Nifty 50 model: invest.rupeecase.com +0.38% alpha held through a -6% drawdown.
Model rebalances today.
INSTAGRAM CAPTION
NEW EPISODE, The Ceasefire Fade
LINKEDIN POST
New Episode: The Ceasefire Fade, The Expiry Pin at 23,000