01Market overview
Pre-market, Monday 23 March. Season 2, Episode 6.
Friday closed Nifty at 23,114, two days of selling, 687 points off the highs. VIX ended the week at 22.81, up 21% in two sessions. The question for today, does 23,000 hold the week?
Global tape overnight: US was mixed to weak into Friday's close, Asia opens with risk-off tilt. Crude is where it gets interesting, Brent peaked at $111.59 earlier in the week and pulled back to $105.61 by Friday. The inflation panic is still on, but the peak may be in.
The bias into the session is bearish intraday. FIIs are shorting hard, they added to futures shorts across three consecutive sessions. 23,000 put wall is the floor the market has to defend. If it breaks, the next real support is not until 22,500.
02F&O positioning: the shorts got deeper
FII futures net position as of Friday close: -2,28,952 contracts. Up from -2,60,540 at the 13 March peak, but still deeply short. They covered some on Thursday, then added right back Friday. This isn't indecision. This is conviction.
FII options book: short calls, long puts. That's a fully hedged bearish structure, not a tactical short.
Client side: still massively long index futures. That is the unwinding risk on any sharp move lower, forced liquidation cascades happen when the retail book is long into falling prices.
DII has been the wall. They absorbed ₹7,558 Cr of FII cash selling on Thursday alone. Cumulative DII buying for the year is approaching ₹1.3 lakh crore. They have the ammunition. The question is whether they step in aggressively or let the market flush first.
03Options & GEX: the 23,000 line
23,000 is the line. 6.75 lakh puts written at that strike as of Friday, that's the market's strongest natural floor. It held on Thursday and Friday's intraday probes. If it holds today, the weekly bounce thesis is live. If it breaks on volume, the next real test is 22,500.
ATM IV spiked to mid-30s by Friday close. That's elevated but not panic. A gap-down today would pop IV into the high 40s, that's your tactical selling zone if you run a premium book.
GEX dealer positioning is negative at 23,000 and below. That means any drift lower gets amplified, not absorbed. The put support is OI-based, not dealer-driven, you need real buyers to step in, not gamma mechanics.
Gamma flip is near 23,200. Above that, dealers long gamma and moves get dampened. Below, shorter and faster.
04Commodities & FX
Brent pulled back from $111 to $105, a 5% giveback. MCX crude at ₹9,258, tracking international. If crude keeps fading, that's the single best macro tailwind India can get right now.
Gold at $4,488, still elevated but coming off. Dollar index softened to 99.65. Rupee at 93.72, holding the 94 line despite FII selling, which tells you DII and RBI are both active.
The crude trade is the one to watch. A daily close below $100 Brent changes the inflation narrative. A re-rally above $112 reignites the fear.
05Trading plan & levels
Today's framework: 23,000 is the must-hold. Above it, 23,381 is the weekly VWAP bounce target. 23,600 is the gamma flip cap.
Below 23,000, expect air pocket to 22,800 quickly, then 22,500 into monthly expiry week.
The trade: Do not short into 23,000, the put wall is real. Do not chase a gap-up, clients are long and will unwind into rallies. Wait for direction to be established in the first 30 minutes.
If you're running a premium book, a VIX above 25 intraday is your signal to start selling iron condors around the 22,800, 23,400 range. If you're directional, 23,000 is your line in the sand either way.
06RupeeCase update
RupeeCase Nifty 50 quant model is rebalancing today, 23 March. Alpha since the 9 March rebalance is +0.38% through a -6% drawdown. POWERGRID has been the only green stock in the book. The new portfolio posts live at rupeecase.com after market close.
The model's edge through drawdowns is what matters, protecting capital on the way down is worth more than capturing the last leg up. Track the new composition at rupeecase.com. to RupeeCase: rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti, #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty23,000 #FIIShorts #QCAlpha