01Market overview
GIFT Nifty? Minus 28 points. Almost flat. Nikkei bounced 904 points. KOSPI up 2.2%.
The bloodbath didn’t show up. But the trap is still set. Let me show you.
INTRO STING (0:20 to 0:35)
This is The Tanmay Edge, India’s pre-market edge in under 8 minutes. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 13. Monday, 6 April. Let’s go.
SEG 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES (0:35 to 1:30)
Remember last episode, Asia was bleeding. KOSPI minus 4.67, Nikkei minus 2.43. Everyone was calling for a Monday massacre.
Here’s Monday. Nikkei up 904 points, plus 1.7%. KOSPI up 118, plus 2.2%. Complete reversal. Straits Times up 0.37%. The only holdouts, Shanghai down 1%, Jakarta down 0.76%. China’s not buying the bounce.
US closed Thursday mixed. Dow futures at 46,544, up 113. S&P at 6,582. Nasdaq 21,879. Steady. Europe, FTSE up 71 to 10,436, very bullish. DAX down 130. CAC flat.
The big number, GIFT Nifty at 22,676. Down just 28 points from Thursday’s close of 22,700. Remember, over the weekend it was trading at 22,540, that’s minus 170. Overnight, it recovered 136 points. Someone covered. The question is who.
Last episode I showed you, Pro was light long at plus 13,677 futures. Hedged with both long calls and long puts. I said they were nimble, waiting for a trigger. That’s still the position. But here’s what matters, Pro didn’t panic. They didn’t flatten before the 4-day weekend. They held. And now GIFT Nifty is flat. Pro got it right.
FII. Last episode’s number: minus 2,64,821 short futures. Thursday close? Minus 2,68,828. They ADDED to the short. Over a long weekend. Cash: minus 9,931 crore on Thursday alone. 2-day FY27 total: minus 18,262 crore. Cumulative: minus 3,54,032 crore.
No. GIFT Nifty flat. Asia bouncing. Crude cooling. The clients got lucky. But lucky isn’t a strategy. The position is still exposed if 22,500 breaks this week.
The verdict hasn’t changed. Pro is accumulating. FII is pressing short. Client is holding long and praying. But the overnight GIFT Nifty recovery tells you someone in the institutional space is covering. And my bet? It’s not FII.
Levels. Nifty closed 22,700 Thursday. GIFT Nifty this morning: 22,676. VWAP sits near 22,500, that’s your magnet. Last episode I said 22,450 to 22,500 is make-or-break. That’s still the floor. Break it = 22,000 to 21,800. Hold it = short covering rally toward 23,000.
Education moment. Last episode, I warned about the 4-day weekend trap. Clients short puts going into Good Friday, collecting premium while delta risk stayed open. Well, today we got the answer. The steamroller didn’t show up this time. GIFT Nifty flat. But the lesson doesn’t change, never hold naked short options over a long weekend. The risk-reward is asymmetric. You make 2 rupees and risk 200. Hedge or flatten. Always.
02F&O positioning
SEG 2: PRO / FII / CLIENT, THE SIGNATURE (1:30 to 3:00)
Let’s answer that question. Who covered? Start with Pro.
03Options & GEX analysis
SEG 3: OPTIONS + LEVELS (3:00 to 4:15)
India VIX at 25.37 from Thursday. Still elevated. But weekly IV at 24.33, and the sell IV signal continues. Here’s the play: morning could see a jump in vol on the opening print, but by afternoon, expect IV compression. Tomorrow is 7 April expiry, theta will eat premium all day.
The 1DTE straddle is priced at 531 rupees. That gives you an implied range of roughly 22,100 on the downside and 23,200 on the upside. 600 points either way. But the market’s telling you probability favors the center.
Structure of the day, sell vol. Iron flies. Sell the straddle, buy the wings. Let theta work for you. Credit spreads on both sides.
Resistance: 23,200, upper straddle bound, heavy call writing zone.
Strong buys globally: SPX, Dollar Index, FTSE, and VIX. When VIX is a strong buy, fear is still the trade. Respect that.
Strong sells: Nikkei, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin. The bounce is real but the medium-term signal is still risk-off. Don’t chase it.
04Commodities & FX
Last episode, I told you, crude spiked 11% in a single day. FII sold 9,931 crore. KOSPI crashed 4.67%. Markets were shutting for 4 days. And I asked you: what happens Monday?
Well, it’s Monday. And the answer is, not what anyone expected.
Commodities, and this is key. Last episode, crude was the villain. WTI had just spiked to 112. Today? Brent at 109.46, up just 0.4%. WTI at 110.53, actually down 0.9%. The crude panic is fading. Not gone, but fading. Gold at 4,663, down 14 points. Safe haven trade cooling.
Dollar Index at 100.12, barely moved. USD/INR still at 93.10.
05Sector watch
SEG 4: TK SCREENER + SECTORS (4:15 to 5:15)
TK Screener, Nifty showing buy on all 3 timeframes. But algo score is minus 56, neutral zone. So the direction says buy, the conviction says wait. Cautious accumulation, not a full send.
Sectors, last episode I flagged IT as the relative outperformer. It delivered, up 2.34% Thursday while everything else bled. Energy and metal are neutral-to-buy, crude beneficiaries. The casualties: finance, infra, housing, all in sell territory. That’s where FII selling hits hardest. Avoid those until the flow turns.
06Trading plan & levels
Trading plan: buy dips toward VWAP. Scalping day. Credit spreads, not naked directional bets.
SEG 5: TANMAY’S READ (5:15 to 6:30)
My read for Monday. Cautiously buy on dips. Pro has already started accumulating, they’re light long and hedged. That’s the smart money signal. Follow it. VWAP at 22,500 is your magnet, buy dips toward that level. Scalp the range. Sell vol with iron flies and credit spreads. Tomorrow is expiry, vol should compress by afternoon. This isn’t a trending day, it’s a mean-reversion day.
This is about being positioned. Not about being right.
07RupeeCase update
Plus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I called this max bearish. That hasn’t changed. They’re not covering.
...but here’s what nobody’s telling you.
Client. Plus 1,77,562 long futures. Minus 3,75,718 short puts. I said last episode, this is max vulnerability. Collecting pennies in front of a steamroller over a 4-day weekend. So did the steamroller show up?
And the systematic side, RupeeCase Nifty. 10 momentum stocks. Gross return: 95.07%. Net: 63.71%. Alpha over Nifty 50: plus 11.15%. Current holdings: SHRIRAMFIN, COALINDIA, HINDALCO, NTPC, SBIN, POWERGRID, TATASTEEL, SUNPHARMA, ONGC, DRREDDY. Next rebalance: 13 April. No opinion. No gut feel. Pure data. Track it live on rupeecase dot com.
CTA CLOSE (6:30 to 7:00)
That’s your edge for today. Last episode I asked what happens Monday. Now you know. If this added value, share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I’m building RupeeCase, India’s systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow.
PRODUCTION NOTES