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The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP05

The 23,000 test

Clients unwind, VWAP magnet

Crude is pulling back from $111 to $105, the inflation pressure that

  • 6:40listen
  • Pre trailbefore the public trail
  • Fri 20 Mar 2026aired, Season 2

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The 23,000 test

EP05, 20 Mar, 6:40

0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes6:40

01Scorecard

Before the public trail.

This episode aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it carries no grade on the five call scale and is not counted in the season hit rate.

The whole season, gradedMethodology

02In this episode

6 chapters,
the numbers pulled out.

  1. 01Market overviewYesterday Nifty lost 687 points. This morning, GIFT Nifty is up 101.
  2. 02F&O positioning"Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where
  3. 03Options & GEX analysis"That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge."
  4. 04Commodities & FX"You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today."
  5. 05Trading plan & levels23,000 held, 6.75 lakh puts protected that level. The market's strongest natural support did its job. As long
  6. 06RupeeCase updateRupeeCase quant fund outperformed by +0.98% alpha yesterday, even on the worst day. ONGC was the only green
Chapter 01 of 6about 0:00

Market overview

687 pointsYesterday Nifty lost
101 ptsNifty flipped green overnight

Yesterday Nifty lost 687 points. This morning, GIFT Nifty is up 101. Today is Friday, monthly close. The VWAP magnets are set. Here's what the data says about where this goes. India's pre-market edge. Five minutes. Every trading day. I'm Tanmay Kurtkoti.

Read the chapter

Chapter 02 of 6about 2:09

F&O positioning

"Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look."

Read the chapter

Chapter 03 of 6about 2:43

Options & GEX analysis

₹7,558 croreFIIs sold
21%VIX spiked
22.74VIX spiked
519 ptsDow futures

"That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge." The data: FIIs sold ₹7,558 crores in cash yesterday and added back to futures shorts (now -2,28,952 contracts). VIX spiked 21% to 22.74. But this morning Dow

Read the chapter

Chapter 04 of 6about 3:40

Commodities & FX

"You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today."

Read the chapter

Chapter 05 of 6about 4:12

Trading plan & levels

22,800Lower end
24,000Monthly VWAP
700 pointsMarket sold
23,400Weekly VWAP

23,000 held, 6.75 lakh puts protected that level. The market's strongest natural support did its job. As long as it holds, the bias is towards recovery. Clients are still massively long. That means unwinding pressure is real today, especially in the first 30

Read the chapter

Chapter 06 of 6about 6:10

RupeeCase update

0.98%Quant fund outperformed
23,000Rebalance on March

RupeeCase quant fund outperformed by +0.98% alpha yesterday, even on the worst day. ONGC was the only green stock. Rebalance on 23 March at 23,000. Track it at rupeecase.com. to RupeeCase: rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti, #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty23,000 #VWAP

Read the chapter

03The notes

Chapter by chapter.

01Market overview

Yesterday Nifty lost 687 points. This morning, GIFT Nifty is up 101.

Today is Friday, monthly close. The VWAP magnets are set. Here's what the data says about where this goes.

India's pre-market edge. Five minutes. Every trading day. I'm Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 5. Let's go.

GIFT Nifty flipped green overnight, +101 pts. Two days of selling, but this morning the market is saying the panic is temporary. A technical bounce is live.

Nifty fell 687 points in two days. This morning GIFT Nifty is up 101. Does 23,000 hold, and where does the bounce go?

02F&O positioning

"Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look."

03Options & GEX analysis

"That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge."

The data: FIIs sold ₹7,558 crores in cash yesterday and added back to futures shorts (now -2,28,952 contracts). VIX spiked 21% to 22.74. But this morning Dow futures are up 519 pts and Brent crude is pulling back from $111 to $105, the inflation pressure that triggered Thursday's fall is easing.

04Commodities & FX

"You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today."

05Trading plan & levels

23,000 held, 6.75 lakh puts protected that level. The market's strongest natural support did its job. As long as it holds, the bias is towards recovery.

Clients are still massively long. That means unwinding pressure is real today, especially in the first 30 minutes. Don't chase the gap up. Wait for the first wave to settle.

My targets for today: upside 23,381 (weekly VWAP zone). Lower end 22,800 should hold. Range trade between these two levels is the high probability outcome on a Friday monthly close.

The bigger picture: monthly VWAP at 24,000 is the gravitational pull for March expiry on 28th. The market sold 700 points in 2 days. But the monthly close magnet hasn't gone anywhere.

Today's framework: 23,000 has 6.75 lakh puts written, it held yesterday and it's the floor. Weekly VWAP at 23,400 is the first bounce target. Monthly VWAP at 24,000 is the gravitational pull for the 28 March expiry. Clients are still massively long index futures, some unwinding pressure is likely in the first 30 minutes. Don't chase the gap up. Range today: 22,800 support, 23,381 upside target.

06RupeeCase update

RupeeCase quant fund outperformed by +0.98% alpha yesterday, even on the worst day. ONGC was the only green stock. Rebalance on 23 March at 23,000. Track it at rupeecase.com. to RupeeCase: rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti, #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty23,000 #VWAP #MonthlyClose #QCAlpha

04Key takeaways

1 things to carry into the session.

  • 01Crude is pulling back from $111 to $105, the inflation pressure that

05In his words

You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today.

Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look.

That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge.

Questions

EP05, in plain words.

What does EP05 of The Tanmay Edge cover?

EP05, Friday 20 Mar 2026, 6:40, in 6 chapters: Market overview; F&O positioning; Options & GEX analysis; Commodities & FX; Trading plan & levels; RupeeCase update.

How did the calls in EP05 score?

It aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it is not graded on the five call scale and not counted in the season hit rate.

Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?

No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested.

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Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.