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The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP02

Expiry day squeeze

Bulls vs the Wall at 23,500

Pre-market analysis for Indian markets, Tuesday 17 Mar 2026.

  • 6:30listen
  • Pre trailbefore the public trail
  • Tue 17 Mar 2026aired, Season 2

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Expiry day squeeze

EP02, 17 Mar, 6:30

0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes6:30

01Scorecard

Before the public trail.

This episode aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it carries no grade on the five call scale and is not counted in the season hit rate.

The whole season, gradedMethodology

02In this episode

3 chapters,
the numbers pulled out.

  1. 01Market overview"You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today."
  2. 02Options & GEX analysis"Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where
  3. 03Trading plan & levelsGap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is.
Chapter 01 of 3about 0:00

Market overview

23,496GIFT Nifty
2.77%Asia broadly green, KOSPI
1.11%Hang Seng
$100Brent crude still above

"You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today." GIFT Nifty at 23,496. Asia broadly green, KOSPI +2.77%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Taiwan +1.77%. Brent crude still above $100 at $102.95. But don't let the green fool you

Read the chapter

Chapter 02 of 3about 1:37

Options & GEX analysis

4.5%VIX dropped
23,750Volume stay long
140 pointsWants to gap
23,500Points straight

"Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look." "That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge." VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday, that's the

Read the chapter

Chapter 03 of 3about 5:20

Trading plan & levels

23,500Trap or launch

Gap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is. FIIs haven't covered their shorts yet (-2.48L contracts), until they do, every rally is suspect. TK Screener Fast turned Buy on Nifty, that's the gap doing its job. But Combined is

Read the chapter

03The notes

Chapter by chapter.

01Market overview

"You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today."

GIFT Nifty at 23,496. Asia broadly green, KOSPI +2.77%, Hang Seng +1.11%, Taiwan +1.77%. Brent crude still above $100 at $102.95. But don't let the green fool you: FIIs sold another ₹9,365 crores in cash on Monday and are sitting on 2.48 lakh short index futures contracts. The structural sell hasn't changed.

02Options & GEX analysis

"Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look."

"That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge."

VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday, that's the market saying panic is easing. Not bullish. Just less bearish.

My trade idea: watch 23,500 in first 30 minutes. Rejection = sell. Break with volume = stay long for 23,750. No middle ground on expiry day.

It's expiry day, and Nifty wants to gap up 140 points straight into the 23,500 wall.

In options: 23,500 has 52 lakh calls sold against it, the wall of the day. IV at 26.03 with straddles at ₹410. TK Screener says sell IV today. VIX dropped 4.5% yesterday, panic easing but trend still down. Key levels: 23,500 resistance, 23,300 support, 23,200 secondary. Watch the first 30 minutes.

03Trading plan & levels

Gap up on expiry day is a trap or a launch, 23,500 tells you which one it is.

FIIs haven't covered their shorts yet (-2.48L contracts), until they do, every rally is suspect.

TK Screener Fast turned Buy on Nifty, that's the gap doing its job. But Combined is still Sell.

05In his words

You don't need more information. You need the right information, here's what matters today.

Sixteen years on these desks taught me one thing, the market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look.

That's not a prediction. That's preparation. There's a difference, and that difference is your edge.

Questions

EP02, in plain words.

What does EP02 of The Tanmay Edge cover?

EP02, Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 6:30, in 3 chapters: Market overview; Options & GEX analysis; Trading plan & levels.

How did the calls in EP02 score?

It aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it is not graded on the five call scale and not counted in the season hit rate.

Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?

No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested.

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Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.