The board got ready for a rally and the close did not get the memo

A very good morning, guys. On Friday, every single positioning signal on the options board moved the same way, and every one of them moved up. Calls were bought back, puts were written, volatility was crushed. The professional desk flipped long. Retail stopped selling puts for the first time in six sessions, and that is new. Then the market closed on its low. And this morning we open 35 points lower. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 119. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti.

Let's go. So the Nifty finished 23,897, up a tenth of a percent. That headline hides everything. At 11:30 it was 24,005. 85 points off its own low. The Sensex was worse. It closed at 76,515 and that closing price was also the exact low for the day, 367 points below the afternoon's high. So for the fourth time in ten sessions an index has printed its high or its low and its closing number is the same as that extreme itself. 44 percent, and under 11 for the first time in this September series.

But look at what led. 58. The large caps led, the broader market did not. And that was Friday for you. That is the reverse of Thursday, and it is why my rotation call on Friday was wrong. And one sector, one industry, got hammered on Friday. That is cables. 95 on 1,173 crore of turnover. 36. Finolex, Havells, Universal, Precision Wires and Apar all followed. Nine names in one industry, one afternoon, on real money. I am not going to invent a reason for it.

But what I can tell you is the shape, and the shape is what it looks like when everybody wants out of the same thing, of the same industry, at the same time. Now the part that matters for today. 90 crore. 844, the biggest one day jump of this run. And strike by strike it is cleaner still. 24,000 lost 32 lakh calls, 23,900 lost 27 lakh calls. Meanwhile 23,900 gained 42 lakh puts, 23,800 gained 39 lakh puts and 23,950 gained 31 lakh puts.

On Thursday 24,000 took 96 lakh calls in one single session. On Friday a third of that came straight back off. The sellers walked down the call side and up the put side, and they did it all day. And that is where we have built up. 51 crore. Three separate things all at the same price, 102 points above where we closed. Which also means we are 102 points inside the negative gamma zone, where on Thursday we were only 27 points inside it.

The unstable region got wider, not narrower. Volatility under 9 percent gives a one standard deviation range of 110 points for the day. And the September future closed at 24,048, a basis of 150 points. 50, then 85 points, then 126 points, and now 150. Three sessions of futures pricing a higher market than the cash, and the cash has not validated it once. And one bit on what the professional desks did. They flipped to net long index calls, plus 74,000 from minus 74,000, a swing of 1 lakh 48,000 contracts.

That is the seventh flip in 11 sessions and the biggest of them. Retail bought back 85,000 puts, the first reduction after six straight sessions of building that book. And then the one book that did not turn: the FII index futures short went to 2,35,838, another run high. Everything else flipped bullish on Friday and that short got bigger. In cash they sold 3,111 crore against 8,930 crore of domestic buying, and sold 9,903 crore of index options, the heaviest of the week. My own position, and first a correction.

50. 35. And the breakevens are 23,859 on the lower end to 24,140 on the higher end. The position is up 14 points after Friday, with two sessions to run. A naked 24,000 straddle made 47 over the same day. So the wings cost me 34 points on Friday. On Thursday, the same wings saved me 34 points. Saved 34, cost 34, on consecutive days. That is the whole argument for defined risk in two numbers. You pay for the ceiling every single day. You only notice it on the one day when it saves you.

Now this morning. Asia is split down the middle. 42. 14. Japan, Korea and Taiwan are flying. Hong Kong, Singapore and we are not. That is the North Asia semiconductor complex moving on its own and we are not in it. So if anyone tells you this morning that Asia is up, it is half of Asia. America closed lower on Friday. 29 percent right now. On top of that, every Indian ADR except two finished lower. 64 percent. That is the real tell for the IT names.

And one correction from Friday. I said the oil run had stalled. It has not. 60, back above the 96 level and still rated very bullish. Gold is at 4,406 and down a second session from 4,472 on Friday morning. So the plan for today is simple, guys. GIFT Nifty is trading at 23,976, down 33 points. That puts us near 23,850 to 23,880, about 35 points lower. It opens us below that 23,900 level, which changes the first question of the day. It is not whether we take 24,000, it is whether we get back and stay above 23,900.

Think about what 23,900 is now. 11 crore of them, and 41 lakh of them were written on Friday afternoon. Open underneath it and every one of those writers is immediately on the wrong side of their own strike. Reclaim it in the first hour and Friday's positioning starts working for the market instead of against it. 24,000 is the level that decides the week, because it is the max pain and the gamma flip and the heaviest call strike all concentrated over there. But it is 102 points away, and today it is the second question, not the first one.

So resistance stands at 24,000, then 24,100. Support is first 23,900 and then that 23,820 mark. The band for the day is 23,800 on the lower end to 24,000 on the upper end, so a 200 point range for today. The risks are Friday's American close and the Dow futures still falling this morning. The foreign futures short at a fresh high. The basis at 150 points that the cash has never confirmed. Both indices closing on their lows. And Asia's strength that is visibly not reaching us.

I am holding the iron fly into Tuesday and reporting it, rather than opening something for the sake of it. And do not chase the first 15 minutes of the gap down, guys. Stay sideways in the first 15 minutes, trade only after 9:30. 5 out of 5. The open came in 40 points under my call, and the rotation trade reversed on me. So if you liked this episode, guys, share it with the one trader friend who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon Music and listen to the episode and get the notifications live as it streams.

com in the podcast section. So have a happy Monday, guys, and a good start to the week, and see you all once again tomorrow on the Nifty expiry. Until then, happy trading.