The auction gave it all back

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the auction gave it all back. 50. 30. 34 percent. That is not one stock having a good day. I ran it across the whole auction list, and it is a mechanism. Of the 70 stocks that were marked almost 1 percent up on Monday, 69 of them fell yesterday. So 69 out of 70. And in the 1,975 stocks that are not in the closing auction session, the same test finds nothing at all. This is The Tanmay Edge.

You are listening to episode 116. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. So let's go. So first the CAS, because that is where the market microstructure is changing. Here is how I ran it, so you can check me. The universe is the 210 futures and options stocks, which is the closing auction list. The control group is the other 1,975 traded stocks which are not present in the auction group. For Monday I measured the auction print against each stock's own average for the day, that is how it traded from 9:15 to 3:15.

For yesterday I measured the plain return, Tuesday's close against Monday's close. Then I correlated the two of them. 712. That is, the stocks Monday marked up, Tuesday they all gave back. And the stocks Monday marked down were positive on Tuesday. 018, which is zero. Consider that. 037. In plain words, on average the market gave back the entire Monday dislocation, one for one, the very next day. And the buckets. 73 percent. 77 percent. Of the 44 names that printed more than 2 percent away from their own day, 40 reversed, 91 percent of the group.

55 percent. So that is just the market falling, and not doing something weird in the cash. So I will take these names one by one. 31 percent. 6 percent. 41 percent. 41 percent. So every stock that we see in the F&O is trading weirdly from Monday to Tuesday, and that is across the names in the closing auction session. This is one pair of days, one observation, not a study with 100 of them. Monday was an MSCI rebalance, so this is the effect at its maximum, not an average, and part of that reversal could be the index flow unwinding rather than the auction itself.

The control group kills the "it was just the market" explanation. It does not kill that one. So what survives, all of it, is simple enough. Monday's closing price was not the price. And yesterday we now know what happened. The tape spent the last hour between 23,952 and 24,000. Look at the exchange's own auction chart, minute by minute and second by second. At 15:20 the indicative was trading around 24,008. Thirty seconds later it was 24,125. It decayed all the way down to 24,055 at 15:29.

That is a 117 point swing inside a ten minute window, on a day with no index event. At 3:13 the index was 23,984. It printed 24,055. The auction added 71 points. And the Sensex was 76,718 at 3:13 and printed 76,944. The auction added 226 points. Anyone reading the indicative at 3:21 was 70 points wrong. And the side effect nobody is talking about. The September future closed at 24,090 against the 3:13 tape, that is a basis of 106 points. Against the printed close it is 34 points.

The auction took 71 points out of the basis without a single futures trade. The tape. 10 percent. The open was 24,077, the high 24,143, the low 23,952. 24,000 broke intraday for the third straight session and closed above it for the third session, and yesterday only the auction made that true. 02 percent, with a high of 77,230 and a low of 76,650. 25. Nifty value was 27,996 crore against 49,193 on the rebalance day and 20,864 normal, so turnover is still a third above normal.

And what moved, and how the breadth was. 35. 72 percent. On the Sensex 30, the gainers were ITC, HCL Tech and Infosys, plus Bharti, plus Reliance, plus Maruti. SBI was minus, IndiGo was minus, Bajaj Finserv was minus. And the breadth, the third bad session running. The Nifty 50 was 20 up against 30 down, the Nifty 500 was 208 up against 291 down, and the total market was 284 up against 461 down. 10. The index held, the broader market did not. And what is showing on the 8th September expiry.

Nifty calls 1,042 lakh, puts 721 lakh. 966. Calls were written at twice the pace of the puts on day one. Resistance at 24,200 is the heaviest at 74 lakh calls, of which almost 42 lakh came in yesterday's session. 24,500 is the next at 72 lakh, and 24,100 at 64 lakh. 5 lakh puts, out of which more than 50 percent got added yesterday. Then we have 23,600 with 49 lakh and 23,900 at 34 lakh. So max pain still stands at 24,100. It sits 44 points above the spot.

24,000 is the even strike, where 58 lakh calls sit against 54 lakh puts. Gamma turns positive around 24,000, so for the first time in the run we are trading inside positive gamma. That dampens the moves instead of amplifying them, until it goes to 23,950 and below. The one standard deviation map. Implied volatility is around 10. The one day one standard deviation is plus or minus 125 points, so 23,931 on the downside to 24,182 on the upside. The at the money 24,050 straddle is trading at 266 over six days, which works out to about 136 points.

Take that band and you get 23,920 to 24,190. So those are the levels for today. And guys, remember, the Sensex expiry is tomorrow. IV is around 12. One day plus or minus is 470, two days plus or minus is 665. So 76,280 to 77,600 is the range for the Sensex. 50, and Bank Nifty September is plus 177. So the pros flipped the call book net short, minus 18,758 from plus 25,471. That is a fourth flip in about a week, a desk trading the range and not carrying any view.

The FIIs are the only consistent one on the board, futures short up again 12,717 to a total of 2 lakh 22,000, a new short high for the run. Further, they sold another 22,000 calls and bought another 81,000 puts. And the client reversed itself completely. 86. Yesterday it sold 70,902 more. 57 lakh, and it bought back 63,000 more calls on the same day. So both legs are maximum bullish, maximum short volatility, into a world that is selling off. So clients, stay away, and do not follow.

On stock options, client stock calls plus 1 lakh 15,000, pro stock calls minus 84,000. So the flows are simple. FIIs bought 1,143 crore of cash, a buy day after minus 7,986 and minus 5,040. The locals bought 1,847 crore. But the same foreigner sold 2,028 crore of index futures on the day and added to the short book. That is a hedged long, not a bear push, so remember this. A buyer who does not trust the tape. Foreign stock futures minus 1,325 crore.

Index options showed minus 24,000 crore of selling, but ignore the direction on that one, expiry day settlement inflates the flows on the option side. So rolling 20 sessions, foreigners minus 9,757 crore, locals plus 60,000 crore almost. So the model, the screener, and what has happened this morning. 03 percent. That points to a flat open near 24,020 to 24,060. And here is the gap. 2 percent. 7 percent. 77. It was 86 last Wednesday, remember that. That is almost 11 percent up in the last six sessions.

WTI is trading at 91. Gold at 4,300 is rated bearish now, roughly 300 dollars off its weekly high. 76. 95, and dollar yen at 160. So everything around us moved, and GIFT Nifty moved 7 points. So the grading for yesterday's episode, I will give it a 3 out of 5. The levels worked superbly, the IV did not. The plan for today is simple, guys. A flat open near 24,030 to 24,060 on a GIFT that is ignoring a 3 percent fall in Korea.

5 lakh puts present over there, tested and held on a close three sessions running. Below it we are going to see 23,900, and if 23,900 does not hold on a closing basis we are going towards 23,600 where the second support stands. 24,100 is the max pain and that is where the market should close in, and the first resistance is also present over there, after which 24,200 where 74 lakh calls are, and then 24,300. The band for trading is 23,930 on the bottom end to 24,190.

We are above the gamma flip level of 23,950 to 24,000, so expect the tape to dampen and not trend, unless 23,950 breaks. The risk is not on the board, it is outside it. Oil is up 11 percent in six sessions, Asia is down 2 to 3 percent, yields are rising, and the screener's highest conviction long on the planet is volatility. The crowd is short seven and a half lakh puts, so they are going to get hit. The Sensex expiry is tomorrow and max pain sits at 76,900 with the spot 44 points above it.

Calls were added at two and a half times the puts, and puts were pulled off every strike above 76,700. So spreads only, be flat by 3:15, do not increase the size, and after the last three sessions, do not judge the day at the closing auction session. Share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. Listen and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify and Amazon Music so you do not miss a notification for a new episode. com, and give it a rating and a review, guys.

See you all once again tomorrow. Until then, have a happy Wednesday.