One stock, two exchanges, two prices

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday IndusInd Bank closed at 1,002 on one exchange and at 970 on the other exchange. 28 percent apart across the exchanges. Federal Bank closed at 344 in one place and at 334 in the other. IDFC First, 83 against 81. PNB, 115 against 112. Canara Bank, Union Bank, Bank of Baroda, Yes Bank, AU Small Finance Bank, all the same story. Nine out of the ten worst price dislocations in the entire market yesterday were banks. And the result was a number that you should stop at.

47 percent. 2 percentage points away from one another. None of that was news. All of that was the closing auction session. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 113. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me walk you through what actually happened yesterday, because that was the Sensex monthly expiry and it matters. Through the afternoon the Sensex traded between 77,200 and 77,300. At 3:22 the indicative close flashed at 75,098, 2,200 points below where the market was trading.

The final settlement printed 76,933, which was also the low of the day, which makes it a third consecutive session where the close was the low, and the close was made after the tape stopped trading, in the cash session. The Sensex finished 540 points down and roughly 370 of those points arrived after continuous trading ended. The Nifty did the same thing, closing at 24,090, its low, having traded 24,130 to 24,200 all afternoon. And the August Sensex contract settled at 76,933, which is 667 points below the max pain of 77,600 that we saw yesterday morning.

A magnet that sat 127 points above the spot at 9 am finished almost 700 points below at the settlement. Now before anyone concludes the whole market is broken, let me give you the honest reading, because I went and checked every single stock. I took every liquid name trading on both exchanges, 1,197 of them, and compared the two closing prices. 00 percent. For most of the market the auction worked exactly as it should. 53 stocks closed more than 1 percent apart. 2 percent of the sample, and 100 percent of the story.

But look at who was in that 4 percent. 85. Read that list again. That is a sector, not a scatter. And on the Sensex 30 itself, seven of the 30 stocks closed more than half a percent apart. 92 percent on the other. Opposite directions for the same company. 01. 03. NTPC, ITC, Bajaj Finance, Adani Ports, all half a percent or more apart. So what is the lesson in plain language? The closing auction session was brought in to make the close harder to push around, and for the deep liquid part of the market it does exactly that.

But for the stocks where the book is thin, it breaks down at that moment. A single imbalance sets the print and there is no continuous market left to argue with it. Yesterday the thinnest books took the biggest marks, and it happened to be a cluster of banks on one exchange. Every index level, every mutual fund NAV, every margin call and every derivative settlement is calculated on those prints. The Sensex monthly settled on a price that the tape never actually traded. So who carries that, and where do those NAVs get marked.

Anyone short the 77,600 straddle into the settlement was marked against the 76,933 print. Index arbitrage desks were holding a basis their own futures never confirmed. 61 lakh naked puts. That is the most exposed group in the market right now, and they are on the wrong side. On yesterday's call, I will take a 3 on 5. The pin never held and the auction went straight to the support. com. Now, underneath that tape, the Nifty finished 117 points down with a high of 24,297.

Breadth was 18 up versus 31 down, and the broader 500 was 186 up against 310 down. 14, a straight rise on a third day, and it is still barely above the 11 mark. Pharma, healthcare and consumer durables held in green. 94, and media, metals and oil and gas were all down. 23 percent making a new low, M&M also 2 percent, and Bharti and L&T both over a percent. So the option board, and it is a third day of the same behaviour.

66 crore. 32 crore, and that is the biggest position on the board and the biggest resistance we are going to face. 65 lakh onto 24,200, 35 lakh onto 24,400. And at the same time puts were pulled off 24,350, 24,300, 24,400 and 24,450, all losing put open interest, while fresh puts were built lower. 14 lakh onto 24,000, which now is the biggest support in the market at 70 lakh open interest, and 18 lakh into 23,800. 59. Max pain slid again from 24,350 to 24,200, and the gamma flip still stands at 24,300 while the spot sits 210 points below it, so amplified moves are switched on and we could see a sharp reversal towards 24,300 as well.

5 percent in a day to almost 10. One standard deviation to Tuesday's expiry is 217 points, making the range closer to 23,900 to 24,350. And notice where that resistance line is, 24,308, right on that 24,300 gamma line. The market has to fight through its own gamma flip to go anywhere else, and that is where the fight is going to happen. So who did what. The pros sold another 68,000 calls and they are now net short calls for the first time this cycle, minus 27,000 net calls they are short, while adding puts.

998 lakh, and stopped buying cash after three days, selling 298 crore in the cash market. 61 lakh on the put side. A third straight session adding both legs into a falling market, with everyone else on the other side. So the flows. Domestic institutions wrote another 4,977 crore cheque, the second huge one in a row after the 6,425 that we saw. FIIs sold cash, sold index futures worth 1,871 crore and bought index options worth 6,866 crore, calls bought and puts written, a hedged re-entry that they are doing, buying the stocks and selling the indices.

And one thing to my credit, my Sensex model called the auction. The signal fell from 77,446, projected 76,952, and the settlement printed 76,933. That is the first model all week to correctly price an auction. 57 percent. 7 percent. Asia is mixed with Japan and Taiwan green and Korea in the red. Gold has broken that 4,600 level and is trading at 4,581. So the fear trade is finally unwinding. 27 percent in its own session but sits 15 points below where the September futures closed.

So the honest read is that the open is flat to mildly higher, 24,120 to 24,150 on the spot is what we are looking at. 26 percent. com. So the plan, and rule one today is different from any other day. Use the tape for your levels, not the printed close. The tape stopped at 3:15 and it stopped near 24,130 to 24,200 on the Nifty and 77,200 to 77,300 on the Sensex. 32 crore calls written at that level, so that will stand as the first resistance.

24,200 is where we should oscillate, and then 24,300 should get hit. If we close above that, 24,400 comes in easily. Below, 24,000 now stands as the support and we could get hit over there, so that would be the buy on dips range. That is what we are following. The daily range is roughly 24,000 to 24,200 on the upside. The crowd is long calls and short almost eight lakh naked puts, so do not trade with them or be on that side. The weekend theta is expensive to own into Tuesday's expiry.

So spreads only, no naked writing on a Friday. And after yesterday, one more thing, do not mark your book at 3:15, wait till the expiry happens, and do not trade into the cash session. Have a great Friday, guys. One stock, two exchanges, two prices, and a settlement on a price that never traded. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. Give it a rating and a review if you want to add something to the podcast.

See you all once again. This was a wrap for 113.