The carpet got ripped up

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the market ripped 153 points higher to 24,231, and the Sensex expiry closed exactly at 77,500. The first higher close after seven straight lower ones, and it came with a structure. Two crore calls off the carpet, I will come back to it later, but two crore calls got covered. 69 lakh got added at 24,200, the biggest single add anywhere. And the PCR crossed one for the first time in this cycle. 87. The gap up lands exactly on 24,300.

The board turned bullish the same night the world rang alarm bells. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 108. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first, about yesterday, guys. 64 percent higher close, that is the number one point. Breadth was stronger, 39 stocks up and 10 down, one sideways. The Nifty 500, almost 304 to 192, this was the broader based rally. The Sensex was up 628 points and closed at 77,537. 81. 53 percent. So the grading for yesterday, the buy on dips range worked perfectly, 76,900 to 77,800, the expiry magnet called at 77,500, closed at 77,537, worked perfectly.

5 on that. com. And now moving to the structure. 63 crore puts have been written, that is the biggest support you can see anywhere on the option chain. 32 crore puts, that is the biggest support right now we have at 24,200. At 24,300 we saw 26 lakh puts getting added over there, and after that we have some smaller supports on the lower strikes as well. Calls got covered everywhere across the board. 24,100 minus 68 lakh, 24,200 minus 27 lakh, 24,500 minus 23 lakh, 24,000 minus 22 lakh, 24,300 minus 18 lakh.

So roughly almost 2 crore calls got unwound yesterday. So right now the resistance present is 24,300 with almost 98 lakh calls present over there. 25 crore. 09, almost the first time above one in this cycle. Max pain is climbing towards that 24,300 mark again and it is stable over there. A rising max pain and a magnet gives you the same lesson, and the direction is clean. The monthly basis is still trading 61 points higher on the futures. So the map, guys.

The front IV is roughly 8 percent. 5, back to 9, back to 8 levels, and again climbing back towards that 9 zone. So the daily one standard deviation is roughly 140 points, so 24,130 on the lower end to 24,350 on the higher end is what the range is for. And for Tuesday, which is expiry, it is roughly around 240 points, so on the lower end you could expect 24,000 and on the higher end around 24,455. So 24,000 and 24,500 are the strikes you are going to look for.

The straddle is implying almost a similar range, 258 points, 23,980 on the lower end to 24,490 on the higher end. So the math agrees with the option chain as well, and the ceiling on the higher end is 24,500 and the support is present at 24,000. So who added what. 14 lakh, flipped index futures to long, remember this, so from short they have gone to long, added 70,000 puts as protection. The desk that cashed the bearish lean at the low is now positioned long.

Remember it. The FIIs covered 80,000 call shorts, that covering was the rally's fuel. Trimmed 93,000 puts, de-risking both the directions is what they are doing. 12 lakh short index futures, and in cash they have sold almost 583 crore into the rally yesterday. 62 lakh calls into the first green day. The crowd finally sold something. 91 lakh, covered only 22,000 of those futures, so that is worth remembering. And the flows. FII cash sold 583 crore, DII cash bought 3,583 crore, cumulative stands at almost 43,000 crore for this month.

And FII stock futures added 3,243 crore, bullish is where they are waiting for. FII index options sold 22,460 crore. The locals bought the breakout, the foreigners sold it. The war now runs into the strength that we are going to see. So the signal has flipped to buy. 24,210 on Thursday, the projected value is 24,230. That is the fourth day the projection has landed within single digits. So the expiry pin projection, max pain climbing with put walls, is equal to a pin zone around that 24,300, if oil behaves how we want it.

And this Friday morning, GIFT Nifty is again showing a gap up and landing exactly at 24,322, into that 24,300 resistance. 87 percent yesterday. 74, and oil is ripping from 88 to 92 to 94. Gold is trading at 4,727, another record high. 87. 3 percent. 71. 73. 64 day, so a fresh defensive book lags a beta rip, that is by design. So cycle level alpha still present, more than 1 percent since the rebalance. 74 percent, Welcorp is up by 7 percent since Monday's rebalance.

So the plan for today is simple, guys. We remain still buy on dips, unchanged, and for the first time this month the structure is on our side. 33 crore fresh puts underneath are present, so that gives us a comfort. So buy zone one and two are roughly similar. Buy zone one is 24,200, and if you want to add one more, you can add between 24,050 to 24,150, that is the second buy zone. Stop loss is below that 24,000 close, 24,100 on a closing basis, and intraday 24,000 is where we are keeping the stop loss.

Resistance, guys, is present at 24,300, where we are going to open. 25 crore calls have been written. So two higher closes in a row, the turn gets credible. So the expiry pin drift is still present around at 24,300 levels. So keep a watch on oil, 95 is that risk level you have to watch for. If the oil crosses 95, it is going to be a hurdle to cross that 24,300 mark. Vol is at its low, so do not sell it into the close, buy into the close, but mind the theta decay that is going to be present.

Size normal, defined risk always pays off, always play with spreads, do not play naked. And if you liked this episode, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it is live at 8:30. So give it a rating, guys, if you want to add something to the podcast. And see you all once again on Monday morning. Until then, have a happy weekend and happy trading.