Round 4, priced for boredom

A very good morning, guys, and today is the Sensex expiry. Last Thursday the auction moved the Sensex almost 300 points in the last two minutes. Everybody remembers it. So what does the market price for round four this morning? Around 10 percent IV, cheaper than the last three rounds of almost 13 to 14 percent IV. So the Sensex straddle is trading around 374 rupees for the day. 36 lakh calls are pressed on the 77,000 strike, 24 lakh of which were added yesterday itself.

And the crowd, the clients, walk in short a fifth record put book of almost 7 lakh that they are carrying overnight. So this is the fireworks that are going to happen today. Expiry decides at 3:30, then the uncross decides after 3:26. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 107. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. 42 percent lower, the first close below that 77,000 strike that we saw. The expiry future remained at almost 77,081, basis points above that spot close.

Max pain stands at around 77,000, 90 points above the spot. The fight, 77,000, is present with 25 lakh calls, 24 lakh calls got added over there yesterday itself, and we have around 17 lakh puts also sold in that same strike. The support, if we talk about the support, is at the current level of 76,900 to 77,000 where 19 lakh puts are present, of which almost 16 lakh got added yesterday itself. And then the bigger support is at 76,000, almost 19 lakh puts present over there, 11 lakh of which got added yesterday itself.

And the resistance, the first actual resistance, stands at 77,500 where actually the magnet should shift in after the open, where around 28 lakh calls are present. 57, so decisively call heavy. Gamma, the negative gamma is present below 76,900 to 77,000, and above 77,000 we would see the steam getting to the strike itself of 77,500. So this is indicative, not the close. Flat into the window. The move will again happen today after 3:26, so keep a watch on that as well. So Wednesday's tape, the Nifty as well.

We closed at 24,078, down 76 points, the seventh straight lower close that we have seen. The staircase trend has remained, from 24,472 to almost 24,078, almost 400 points down in the last seven sessions, and today we are going to retrace around 200 points back from there. So the low was 24,025, the 24,000 base case held nicely. 33. 49 percent, the defensive lean cracked. 73 percent positive. And another wild late print near 24,200 in the Nifty's closing session before settling around 24,078.

That happened in the cash. The daily uncross circus continues in the cash session. And for yesterday's scorecard, I will take a 4 on 5. com, you can have a look over there. So now let's look at the clients' data point. 13 lakh puts have been sold. 73 lakh calls have been bought. Seven red days, five records. Nobody has ever needed five warnings, and the clients are still holding that, and we should give it to them, where today they are going to get paid on the gap up.

The smart money, the lean got booked. 7 lakh call short at the lows. 05 lakh calls was seen. Their book now is exactly the opposite of what we saw yesterday. 33 lakh, almost one lakh long puts, back to long vol and long straddle is what they are playing for. So the lesson, they picked a side on Tuesday, melted for two days, booked it at the bottom. That is how a lean is traded. 10 lakh, first time over 2 lakh in this month.

14 lakh, first time over 3 lakh. And yes, FII cash, again, they bought 408 crore in the cash market, whereas the DIIs bought 3,974 crore in cash, the biggest cheque in the last eight sessions we have seen. And the Nifty board. The BhavCopy is telling us the max pain stands at the same 24,250 to 24,300 levels, around 150 to 170 points above the spot close. And into the open, we are going to open around 24,200. So call writers are present at 24,100, 79 lakh calls got added over there.

1 crore calls are present, so that is where we are going to face the first resistance. 16 crore calls have been written over there, almost 36 lakh got added over there. 49 crore calls. So roughly two crore calls got added in yesterday's session, every round strike is sold. 37 crore puts is the base that is holding. 7. The weekly straddle, if you look at it, is around 235, giving us a weekly range of around 270 points, that is around 24,000 on the bottom end to 24,300, so we still trade in the same zone.

Front IV is just below that 10 mark. Resistance now sits at every 100 points, starting from 24,100 all the way till 24,500. Every strike is written. So Thursday morning, today, we are seeing globally, first the GIFT Nifty. GIFT Nifty is up almost 150 points, and we are going to open towards that 24,229 zone. So a good break into the seven day downtrend that we are seeing. 4 percent crash fully rebounded. The Nikkei is up by almost a percent. 68 percent. So overall Asia is ripping higher.

8. Gold exploded yesterday to a record of 4,528 and is currently trading right now at 4,500. 92, still above that 90 zone that I am worried for, but slowly coming down. 76, that is the lowest close ever. And the gap lands the Nifty at 24,230, exactly into the call resistances of 24,100 to 24,300. 53 percent remains. 63 percent since rebalance. So the plan for today is simple, and the POV remains buy on dips. So we are not going to change the stance.

Sensex first. So 77,000 is the sustained side, where we are looking at the bottom. So the first real resistance would come at 77,500, where almost 28 lakh calls are written, so we could see oscillation happening over there. So selling 77,500 for today's expiry would be a good trade. On the bottom side, I see 77,000, if it breaks, the first support is 76,800, which is unlikely to happen, but keep a watch on that 76,800 strike as well. The straddle is trading around 374 points, giving us a range of almost 470 points on each side.

That gives us an opening range of almost 76,900 on the bottom end to 77,800 on the upside. So keep a watch, almost an 800 point width that we are going to see. Don't carry anything into the last window, because the Sensex is where we are seeing expiry to be very volatile, and in the last few minutes the markets are moving very drastically. Nifty, the 170 point gap up is opening into the fresh resistance zone of 24,300, so keep a watch on that.

Seven lower closes, and we are finally going to see an up day today. So reclaim and hold 24,250 for the first few hours and we could see the markets breaching through 24,300 as well, and then towards that 24,500 mark. One green day does not change the size rule. Small, defined risk is what we are going to trade in, because the market below 24,300 is not a good close. And if you liked today's episode, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now.

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