01Cold open: the melt up lasted one morning
Yesterday morning Korea was up six percent. It ran clean through 7000, so hard the exchange had to step in and slow the buying. By the closing bell Korea was up 0.73 percent. Japan had been up over a thousand points and closed red.
The melt up lasted one morning. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 87.
02Yesterday's grade: four out of five
The condition fired. If Brent pushes hard through 92 and the rupee cracks, stand down. Both arms fired. Brent tagged 94 against Tuesday's 91.01, the rupee closed 96.57. Standing down saved you a 191 point Nifty day.
The bear branch was almost exact, lose 24,100 and wait for 24,000, and it closed 23,996.25. The miss was Sensex 77,000 as support. Four out of five.
03The close: third down session, the steepest of the three
Nifty 23,996.25, down 191.45. High 24,166.30 in the first few minutes, low 23,961.40. Sensex 76,755.05, down 715.06. Bank Nifty 57,126.80, down 708.55. The vol gauge, India VIX, up 5.49 percent to 13.29.
Breadth was worse than the headline. Ten stocks up, forty down inside the Nifty 50. Fourteen of sixteen sectors red. Only FMCG and Auto held, on earnings. IT fell 1.50 percent but Infosys alone was down 1.99 percent. The market sold one company into its own result, and that company reports today.
04The Nifty chain: 24,000 turns from support into resistance
On the 28 July chain, the heaviest put open interest sits at 24,000, 1 crore 22 lakh contracts, and we closed just under it. But at that same strike the call open interest is bigger, 1 crore 34 lakh, and calls added 87 lakh yesterday against 46 lakh puts, nearly twice the rate, at the exact strike we closed on.
So 24,000 is not turning into support. It is turning into resistance, right on top of us. The support walked down and rebuilt at 23,950 and below. Across the chain two and a half calls were sold for every put, the put call ratio 0.73. Max pain sits at 24,100, above us, and the options line is at 24,000. We closed right on it.
05The Sensex chain: this is the expiry, this is today
The Sensex expires today. Spot 76,755, at the money 76,800. The heaviest call open interest is up at 77,500 and 77,000, overhead resistance. The near money put support sits at 76,700 and 76,800, right where we stand.
The writing was one sided. Calls added 2 crore 51 lakh against just 79 lakh puts, more than three times the rate, piled into 77,000. Put call ratio 0.57. The options price a move of about 496 points, a day expected to hold between roughly 76,260 and 77,250. The line is 76,700. Hold it and the day pins, lose it and moves speed up.
06Positioning: pros buy both sides before the expiry
The professionals are long 13,299 index futures, long 69,005 calls and long 1,13,000 puts, all at once. They set that up the night before an expiry with a result inside it. When the pros go neutral and buy both sides, they expect the pin to break.
The foreign institutions are net short 2,51,000 index futures, eleven shorts for every long, but still net long 5,10,000 stock futures, a hedged long. The clients are long 1,64,000 futures, long 1,72,000 calls and short 6,91,000 puts, the most exposed bullish seat there is. July futures closed below cash while futures open interest rose on a down day, fresh selling. In cash, foreigners sold 819 crore and domestics sold 418 crore the same day.
07The plan: reclaim 24,000 or respect 23,961
Sensex first, because that is the expiry. 76,755 is the reference, 76,700 is the line where behaviour changes. Above, 77,000 is resistance now, not support. I called it support yesterday and it cut straight through, so I earn it back before I trust it.
On the Nifty the session is one question, 24,000. Reclaim it in the first 30 minutes and hold and I look at 24,100 then 24,166. Fail to reclaim by 10 o'clock and the sellers are in control, then 23,961 and 23,900. For the week the band is 23,687 to 24,305, trade the edges. And do not carry a position into the Infosys number inside an expiry.