24,000 held to the tick and IT bought the crash

good morning guys yesterday korea had a black monday and indian it walked in and bought the dip nicely last night the same chip selling crossed into america the nasdaq lost more than one percent and crude broke 80 so this morning we are gapping down on gift nifty back on to 24,000 on expiry day. Now here is the thing guys. Yesterday I told you to buy that 24,000 dip and it paid off. Today, am I still a buyer? But with one change.

Crude is now over my line. So today, you buy with caution and you never buy without an insurance. So this is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 80. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me give you yesterday first, fast, because today is the second half of the same story. The Hormuz news gapped the Sensex down 700 points at the bell. And then Indian IT bought the whole thing back. 20. The 24,000 line held to the tick. And it closed 24,211.

Dead on that 24,200 pin and the target. 59%. 43%. Sorry, HCL Tech was up by 5% and after its numbers. But look under that green screen. FIIs sold 3062 crore in cash and DIIs bought 2172 crore to absorb it. 28, that is where the VIX closed in. Now, overnight, two things moved against us. One, the chip selling that crashed Korea did not stop. 6%. 8%. Memory and AI names led it lower for a second straight day. Two, crude kept climbing on the strait.

Iran is calling Hormuz closed, Washington is talking about a blockade and a toll on every tanker that passes through it, about a fifth of the world's oil moves through that channel. That is almost 20%. Brent is now over $84. WTI near $79. 50. And gift nifty is down about 165 points pointing to an open near 24,000 right back on that support of 24,000. So here is the twist guys and it is in options. The 14th July expiry chain is showing a max pain of 24,200 exactly where we closed.

9 crore puts are written over there and it grew by 83 lakh contracts yesterday alone. Resistance, first one is present at 24,300, 93 lakh calls. 7 crore calls now, the heaviest strike on the board. 62. That is supportive. The straddle is around 200. So the market is technically pricing a move of 23,970 on the bottom end to 24,380 on the upside. So now both participants, pros first because they move first. The pros are long the futures and they are long both, the calls and the puts, 1,52,000 long calls and 1,19,000 long puts at the same time, so they are paying for a move both ways into the expiry.

So the foreign desks are the cautious side, short 2,55,000 index futures, writing the upside, buying the downside puts, and they sold the cash as well. And the crowd, the clients, they are sitting short 6,06,000 puts under the market, they are put writers betting 24,000 holds. That is the fuel guys, if 24,000 cracks those short puts have to run for the cover and that is exactly what makes a move fast. And here is the tell that ties it together. 28. And the pros are paying for options on top of that.

On a normal expiry, the fear gauge would fall, the options would bleed to zero and the price gets glued to the max pain. When the fear gauge is rising into expiry and a smart desk is buying both wings, that glue is weak, the pin can break and that should happen today and the price can trend, also that will happen today, so do not sit there and blindly sell a straddle today just because it says expiry on the calendar. So why caution today when yesterday I told you just buy it.

One number. Yesterday crude was under 80 dollars and gold was falling, so no fear, clean dip, you buy it. Today crude is at 84, over the line I gave you. That was the one thing that would change my mind and it happened. It does not flip me bearish but it means the downside is live now, not theoretical. The one tell still on our side is gold. Gold is trading still flat at $4,010. Still not spiking. Real fear runs into gold and it is not running yet.

So the bulls keep the benefit of doubt today but only just. So here is the plan, what we are going to do. And today it is about the edges, not the middle chop. We open near 24,040 straight into the support. If 24,000 holds, which I think it should not hold and it should break, so we are looking at 23,950 to 23,970 as the buy zone. Then the target would be 24,100 to 24,200. That's the pin. If we rally above 24,200 today's expiry can be vicious and go about 24,300 as well, but personally I feel 24,100 to 24,200 is the expiry's best case, that is where the buildup has happened, but it is not going to come without a move.

Now the down case, because a plan without an exit is just a hope. Clean break of 23,950 on real volume and that only needs crude to keep running or one fresh headline over the strait. If 23,950 goes gamma flips negative, the clients who sold those six lakh six thousand puts run for cover and the move gets fast. Next support 23,900, then 23,800 cannot be ruled out. I do not average into that, I stand aside and I wait for that 23,800 line.

So the line is exact, above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips, below it on volume I am out and waiting for the markets to settle out. And whatever you do today keep the insurance on guys, it is expiry, the fear gauge is rising and there is a live crude event running over the Hormuz. That is the exact combination where you hold your hedge. Do not sell it for few rupees. The pros are the ones buying that protection right now. Do not be the one selling it to them cheap.

So remember second half is not about selling, the first half yes, after the volatility selling can be done. Two things swing the day. Crude first, watch whether Brent holds up here or fades back under 80 because that is the whole risk in one number. And global chips, this is the second night of that selling, so watch it out, it decouples again like yesterday or finally cracks with the rest of the world, keep half an eye on korea as well and the rest of asia for the follow through.

Quick scorecard guys on yesterday's episode 79. I told you to buy the dip, the support would hold and it would lead it back. 59 and we close right on 24,200 pin. 5 out of 5, only 24,300 the touch point that I expected didn't hit. com. Have a great tuesday expiry guys. One wall that held to the tick, one crude spike over the line, and one expiry that is not a dead pin. Buy the 24,000 dip with a hedge, target 24,200 then 24,300 for the expiry to come back again to 24,100 to 24,200, and step aside after 23,950 breaks.

This was the Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this guys please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give a rating guys and a review if you want to add something to the podcast. Thank you, see you all once again tomorrow.