Gap up over 24,000 into the FII call supply. TCS prints a 9.5 billion dollar book. IT decides Friday

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday we told you 24,000 was the resistance. The market ran up, tagged it, and got sold right back. It closed at 23,962. This morning, before the bell, GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,133, and we are gapping around 170 points straight over that level that stopped us yesterday. So the question changes today. It is not, can we reach 24,000. It is, can we hold above 24,000 today and into next week. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 78.

I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me give you yesterday first, because it sets up everything for today. 34 percent. 31 percent. But the number that matters in India is VIX. 36. The fear that spiked on Wednesday's crash came straight back out. And it was a broader day, guys. 54 percent. Media was up 2 percent. 6 percent. 4 percent. 3 percent. Hold that thought, guys. IT was the single weakest sector on the board, right into its biggest result of the quarter.

Then after the bell, TCS reported. Profits almost 13,349 crore, up by 5 percent. Revenue up by 14 percent. 5 billion dollar order book, including a big AI deal with SKF. 6 billion dollars a year, and a 12 rupee dividend. Strong book. The one soft spot was the margins, 24 percent, squeezed by the annual wage hike. So the most beaten down sector in the market printed a healthy number, sitting at a six year low price. So that is the setup. Now here is the part nobody on the news is telling you, because on the surface this looks easy.

3 percent, Nikkei up two percent, our GIFT Nifty is also up, TCS has beaten the street, the margins are thin but the rest of the numbers were perfectly fine. Gap up and go, right, right into the rally. Look at what the big money actually did with its positions yesterday. This is NSE's participant data, so this is not an opinion. This is the actual option book and participation book that we have. Starting with foreign institutional investors, or FIIs. In cash they were small sellers, minus 533 crore.

Fine. But in futures they are still net short 2,66,251 index contracts. On Wednesday they were short 2,68,000, so across the whole bounce they covered almost nothing. They stayed short the index. At the same time they are net long 5,91,571 stock futures, they are holding 5,24,225 long puts for protection, and they sold around two and a half lakh calls on top of it. So just take a thought on this. They are short two lakh sixty eight thousand index, but with that they are long almost six lakh stock futures.

Now to protect that, they are holding almost five and a half lakh of long puts as well, and with that they have sold some covered calls, where two and a half lakh calls are sold. Put that together. So that is a desk that is happy to own stocks, but is capping the index and paying for the insurance into the weekend. Then the proprietary traders, that is the pros, the members' proprietary accounts, the ones who usually move first. Net long the index futures, but only by 16,954 contracts.

Long calls, long puts at the same time, betting for long volatility. Small, balanced, not a big position but either way. And the crowd, the clients. Net long futures, long calls, and short puts. They are writing the puts, and that actually helps us, because put writers build support under the market. And the DIIs, who bought another 2,058 crore of cash. The domestic money is doing the buying. So the twist is this. The bounce is real, but it is led by domestic buying and put writers, while the FIIs sit short the index and sell the calls into the strength.

The move up has a lid on it, and the FIIs are the ones who are holding that lid. So where exactly is that lid, or resistance. Go to the option chain. This is the 14 July option chain data. The heaviest call open interest stands at 24,200, almost 90 lakh contracts, then 24,300 at 87 lakh, and 24,000 at 79 lakh. That 24,200 to 24,300 strike is where the FIIs parked most of their short calls. That is your resistance for today, remember it.

So 200 to 300 is your resistance, anything above 200 gets into a sell zone. On the downside, the heaviest put open interest is 23,800, about 66 lakh, then 24,000, and that is your support. And the one level that decides the character of the day is 24,000. That is your gamma flip level. Above 24,000, gamma is positive, moves get dampened, they are not going to be aggressive, the market grinds. Below 24,000, gamma is negative, and moves get fast and one way. Yesterday we were below it and it was choppy.

Today we gap above it. So remember this, once the market opens, we are going to rally at least a hundred points straight towards that 200 to 300 zone. 6 percent, down more than 20 percent. So the expected zone into the weekend is roughly 23,950 to 23,900 on the downside, to 24,300 on the upside. That lines up exactly with the put base and the call resistance that we have. So here is the plan, guys. We open near 24,100 to 24,120, straight into the 24,200 call supply zone.

So we rally 100 points after the open. We open and hold above 24,000, positive gamma takes over, and the grind is towards that 24,200 level. But I am not chasing it up there. 24,200 is where the FIIs sold their calls, so that is the level they will defend. I will treat the open strength as a place to book, not to buy. If we cannot hold 24,000 by the end of the day and do not reclaim it, that flips to negative gamma territory, and we slide back towards that 23,900 mark.

And that, guys, is the buy zone, not the panic. So 23,800 is where the puts are written and where the domestic money has been stepping in. The swing factor is TCS and IT. I feel the IT sector is going to be the leader today, finally takes the lead from the global tech and holds green, and the index has room to tag 24,200 to 24,300. If IT sells one more time, then it caps the index again and we face a selloff today.

Watch IT in the first hour. That is your tell. 5 percent positive, you are going to have a very good, strong day. And do not forget it is Friday, guys. Crude is at 76, but it is still open risk over the weekend. So keep that hedge on. Do not sell your protection cheap. Just because volatility is low, that is exactly when you want to own it. Quick scorecard on yesterday, guys. We called a gap up open and we nailed 24,000 flipping to resistance.

Nifty poked above it and got sold right back to the close of 23,962, and the gap number landed within a few points. The misses. Sensex drifted up to settle 76,740, instead of 76,500 to 76,600, that was the expectation of the pin. And IT lagged into TCS instead of leading. Three out of five. com, have a look over there. Have a great weekend, guys. One gap up over resistance. One lid held by FIIs. One result that decides IT sector as a whole.

Hold above 24,000 and book into 24,200 to 24,300. Lose it and buy 23,800 as your support and a buy zone. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value, guys, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give a rating, guys, and a review if you want to add something to the podcast. Thank you all. See you all once again on Monday morning.