The foreigner bought ₹1,355 crore. The hedge stayed on. Tuesday we settle

A very good morning, guys. America comes back online tonight after Friday's holiday. But forget New York for a second, because for two whole sessions this market ran on its own, and it closed above 24,200 for the first time this move. Three green days. And on Tuesday, we settle. This is a domestic story now, and the next 48 hours decide the week. This is The Tanmay Edge, India's pre-market edge, before the bell. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, you are listening to Episode 74.

Let's go. So, Friday's official close came in, guys. 85, up almost 95 points after we gave back a lot of gains. Sensex 77,763, up 262 points. 83, a multi-month low. A calm tape that we saw. GIFT Nifty this morning is 24,330, so a soft, slightly higher open. Asia is mixed as I speak, Hong Kong and Taiwan firm, Japan and Korea a little soft, nothing that moves our open. Crude stays friendly, Brent at 72, a straight tailwind for us. 22, a bit of relief off the record low.

That is the backdrop, guys. Now the real story, which sits entirely under our own tape. So starting with cash. On Friday the FIIs did something they had not done in weeks. They bought. Net buyers of 1,355 crore. The depository tally shows foreign equity buying of 2,349 crore. And the domestic institutions, who carried this market for three sessions, sold minus 1,954 crore. The baton switched hands. Now go under the hood, into the positioning. Three desks: pros, FIIs and clients. The pros, the desk that moves first, stayed net long index futures, plus 13,496 contracts.

And in the options they are long both sides, plus 1,41,192 on the call side, plus 1,10,605 on the put side. Leaning up. So the pros are basically long volatility, they own options. The foreigners are the puzzle. In the index futures they are still short, minus 2,50,767, but they trimmed that short again, from minus 2,56,900. Covering, not pressing. And in index options they are net short 2,33,473 calls and net long 4,77,175 puts. So the option book is defensive: calls sold, puts owned.

Now here is the piece most people never check, and it flips the whole read. Look at single stocks, guys. The same foreign desk is net long 5,47,349 stock futures. Long the shares, short the index. This is not a bearish bet, that is a hedge. They own a big book of stock, and they are short the index against it as insurance. Long stock, short index, puts on top. They bought the market, and they kept the seatbelt bolted on. And the crowd, the retail client, is on the other side.

Net short 6,12,821 index puts. In plain terms, the crowd has sold a mountain of downside protection, betting this only goes up. When everyone is leaning one way, that is the side that gets hurt if the tape turns. So where is all this positioning stacked up? The open interest points to clean levels. The single biggest pile on the entire option chain is at 24,000. That is the level the market has broken above, but the VWAP still stands around 24,100. 42 crore contracts of downside protection are present over there.

That is the anchor, the base of this whole structure. You can call it the support as well. So overhead, the call selling is layered at 24,300, 400 and 500. 1 crore contracts. And the single biggest fresh build on Friday was at 24,300, where over 60 lakh contracts got added in one day. That is the first resistance we are going to see. Now the level that matters most today. There is a gear-change point right around 24,300, the line where the market flips from jumpy to sticky.

That is the switch. Below it, moves get amplified, every push runs. Above it, moves get dampened and the tape goes quiet. We closed at 24,270, sitting right underneath that switch. Reclaim it and hold, and the grind higher turns orderly. Lose 24,200 on a closing basis, and it gets loose again toward 24,100, then 24,000, the main support. And the insurance is dirt cheap. 83. When protection is this cheap, you own it, you do not sell it, remember that. So directional bets plus insurance is the trade.

Say the date out loud, because it is the plan: Tuesday is Nifty's expiry. Monday positions into it. One line on why we are up here at all: IT carried the week, a second straight green day, and that leadership is what is holding this tape up. So my read, and it does not change: buy the dips. Constructive, confirmed. But keep the seatbelt on, because the smart money did. Buy toward 24,200, do not chase 24,400. 24,200 has to hold on a closing basis, or it gets loose toward 24,100, then 24,000 as well.

And with insurance this cheap, keep a small hedge under the long, positioned exactly the way the foreign desk is: long the market and protected underneath. Then watch one thing into the week: does the rupee get real relief under 95, because that is the flow that either fuels this or caps it. This is the discipline, guys, and the RupeeCase model runs on it. It does not chase a one-day bounce. It waits for the trend to confirm, and it sizes to the risk.

com. That was your edge for today, guys. If this added value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I am building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. The link is in the show notes. You just got earlier, guys. See you once again tomorrow.