01Market overview
SEGMENT 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES
Let’s set the global stage.
GIFT Nifty awaiting morning data.
Bias to be filled with market analysis.
1. GIFT Nifty CMP (10 Apr morning)
2. US close 9 Apr + Asia open 10 Apr
9. Global markets overnight update
02F&O positioning
SEGMENT 2: PRO / FII / CLIENT (THE EDGE)
F&O positioning data from 9 April below:
Here’s what we know going in. As of 8 April, the ceasefire rally day:
Pro flipped to short puts, from plus 37,656 long puts to minus 28,233 short puts. That’s a bullish flip. When Pro starts selling puts, they’re collecting premium on the downside. They don’t think the market is going lower.
FII covered 32,035 futures contracts in a single day, the biggest single-day cover in Season 2. Net short came down from minus 2,59,435 to minus 2,27,400. Still massively short. But the direction changed. 3 consecutive days of net buying in derivatives. April is a net buyer month so far.
Client booked profits on 1,05,605 short put contracts. They made money on the gap-up and took it off the table. Smart exit.
Now, the big question for today’s data: did FII covering continue on the Sensex expiry? Or did the pullback pause the unwind?
9 Apr participant-wise positioning: FII futures, Pro positioning, Client, FII cash vs DII cash posted below.
FII short position journey: Peaked at minus 2,68,462 on 6 April. Covered 9,027 on the 7th. Covered 32,035 on the 8th. Total covered from peak: 41,062 in 2 days. Data pending for 9 Apr update. The target I’m watching, below minus 2,00,000 is a structural shift. Below minus 1,50,000 is full capitulation.
4. 9 Apr F&O positioning (Pro/FII/Client), CRITICAL
5. 9 Apr FII/DII Cash
6. FII short position journey, 9 Apr number
03Options & GEX analysis
So what broke? Banks. What held? Everything else. The screener just flipped to SELL. The IV signal just flipped to BUY. And Nifty is sitting right in the negative gamma zone.
Friday with negative gamma and a fresh sell signal? That’s not a day to guess. That’s a day to be prepared.
INTRO STING
Yesterday’s close: Nifty 23,775, down 222 points, minus 0.93%. Sensex expiry closed at 76,632, down 931 points, minus 1.20%. The call wall at 77,500 held like a ceiling. Sellers won that expiry decisively.
US market close and Asia opening data to follow from morning broadcast.
SEGMENT 3: OPTIONS + LEVELS
This is where it gets interesting for Friday.
The screener, both Nifty and Sensex, flipped to SELL yesterday at close. Nifty signal price 23,816. Projected 23,742. Sensex signal 76,892, projected 76,532. This is the first sell signal since the rally began.
But here’s the flip within the flip. The IV signal went from SELL, which we’ve been riding for 2 days, to BUY. Nifty IV at 19.38. Down 2.7%. India VIX at 19.08. After crushing from 29.50 down to 19, that’s a 35% IV decline in 3 days, options are now cheap enough to buy again.
Now the GEX. Next expiry is 13 April, Nifty weekly.
Gamma flip zone: 23,850. Nifty closed at 23,775, that’s 75 points BELOW the flip. We are in negative gamma territory.
What does negative gamma mean? Market makers are short gamma here. When the market falls, they have to sell to hedge. When it rises, they buy. They amplify the move in both directions. Think of it like this, the market makers become trend followers instead of mean-reverters. Moves get bigger, not smaller.
24,000, call wall. 7.7 million OI. Plus 1,843 positive GEX. This is the ceiling. Yesterday’s open. Above this and the squeeze resumes.
23,850, gamma flip. Above this, market calms down. Below this, moves amplify.
23,700, secondary support. Minus 888 GEX.
23,500, max negative GEX at minus 1,456. If we get here, it’s a magnet. The strongest support the chain shows.
Straddle for 13 April: 406 points. That’s an implied range of about 812 points, roughly 23,369 to 24,181. Wide.
Education: Let me explain what negative gamma actually does to your Friday.
When the gamma exposure at the current strike is negative, market makers are positioned in a way where they have to trade WITH the trend. Market drops, they sell. Market rallies, they buy. This is the opposite of what happens in positive gamma, where they absorb moves and create pin zones.
So on a negative gamma Friday, you’re more likely to see a trending day than a choppy one. If we gap down, the move extends. If we gap up through 23,850, the character changes and things calm down. That’s the line. 23,850.
The data says direction is down, screener is SELL. But IV is cheap, BUY options. And we’re in negative gamma, moves will be amplified. That combination tells me: don’t sell naked. If you’re bearish, buy puts or use spreads. If you’re bullish, this is a dip-buy with a stop. The one thing NOT to do today is sit in the middle without a plan.
04Commodities & FX
Crude, Brent was at 96.78 yesterday morning, bouncing 2% from the crash low of 94.68. Day 3 of the ceasefire trade. Gold flat at 4,723 dollars. Silver was the outlier, MCX silver up 3.69% to 2,39,894. Dollar index back above 99. Rupee at 92.58, still strengthening.
Commodities prices to be updated from morning data.
3. Updated commodities (Brent, Gold, Silver)
05Sector watch
SEGMENT 4: SCREENER + SECTORS
The screener is telling a clear sector story.
Strong Buy: Defence, algo score 3,258. Metal, 1,811. Energy, 477. IT, 436. Pharma, 64. These are the sectors where the data says momentum is building.
Strong Sell: Reliance. Negative algo score. Sell across slow, fast, and combined. That’s significant, Reliance is 10% of Nifty’s weight.
Look at what happened yesterday. Defence up 1.56%. Capital markets up 1.54%. Metals up 1.25%. CPSE up 1.22%. Energy, pharma, healthcare, all green. Even midcaps and smallcaps eked out green closes.
And then banks. Private banks down 1.75%. Bank Nifty down 1.58% with zero, zero, advances out of 14 stocks. PSU banks down 1.27%. Financial services down 1.41%.
This is not a market selloff. This is a bank selloff. The Sensex expiry forced position unwinds in the most heavily traded names, and those are banks. HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis, SBI, these are the ones with the highest F&O OI.
TCS Q4 results and IT sector momentum data pending.
RupeeCase: The 10-stock momentum model held up well in yesterday’s rotation. When banks crashed and energy, metals, and pharma held, that’s exactly what diversified momentum does. It doesn’t chase one sector. It follows where the flow is going. Next rebalance: 20 April. Track it live on rupeecase dot com.
CTA CLOSE
06Trading plan & levels
India’s pre-market edge, your daily dose of data, flow, and levels that 99% of traders don’t see before the bell. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 17. Let’s go.
What does this combination mean? Sell the underlying, buy options. That’s a hedge setup. The data is saying: direction is down, but volatility is about to expand.
Key levels:
SEGMENT 5: TANMAY’S READ
7. TCS Q4 results + market reaction
8. TK’s bias / named setup
07RupeeCase update
LINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti
COLD OPEN
874 points up. 222 points down. That’s not a reversal, that’s the market catching its breath.
But here’s the number that matters: 0. Zero. That’s how many Bank Nifty stocks closed green yesterday. All 14, red. Private banks down 1.75%. And yet, defence rallied 1.56%. Metals up 1.25%. Pharma, IT, energy, all green.
That’s your edge for today. If this added value, share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I’m building RupeeCase, India’s systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes.
The data doesn’t lie. Narratives do.
You just got earlier. See you Monday.