Expiry day special: one box, three clocks

A very good morning, guys. Today is extremely special, as we are recording this 100th episode. 100 trading mornings, 100 data packs, 100 sets of levels graded in public the very next day, every single time. And it has been difficult for me to get to it, but today we are marking the 100th episode. And today is the weekly expiry as well, where the options board has squeezed into a 100 point box. 12 crore put support at 24,500. 46 crore call resistance at 24,600.

Max pain sitting exactly in between, and a straddle that costs just 146 rupees. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 100. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So before the numbers, guys, 30 seconds from me to you. When this started, the idea was simple. Read the actual exchange data that gets published, take a view, put it on record, and grade it the next morning against the settlement. No hindsight, no deleting bad calls. com. 43 percent. That gap is not prediction, it is a process that we have been following for so many years.

Thank you for those hundred mornings. Now let's earn the hundred and first. So Monday, Nifty closed at 24,583, up 13 points. It opened at 24,581, dipped to almost 24,511 in the first hour, and the dip got bought exactly in the zone this podcast marked, 24,550 to 24,500. It then spent the whole day pressed under 24,600, a high of 24,620, and could not close above it. The Sensex added 43 points at 78,542. 33. And the rotation flipped for a second time in two sessions.

2 percent. 8 percent. Capital market names, realty, private banks all green. 7 percent, defence down one percent. So two flips in two days. It is not a trend, guys, that is money squaring itself under a pin. Breadth said the same thing, 25 up and 23 down on the Nifty. Which brings us to Friday's call. Episode 99 said buy the dip towards 24,550, even 24,500, stop on a close below 24,500, do not sell the volatility. The dip came at 24,500 and got bought to the point.

The stop never came close. The upside trigger at 24,600 never fired. So I will take a 4 on 5 on episode 99. com. Now the board, because today is what the entire story is all about. Max pain for today's expiry is sitting at 24,600, that is the expected expiry that should happen at the pin, and we closed 16 points below it on Monday. Put writers added two crore contracts against just 10 lakh fresh calls. 85, that is a bit bullish. 12 crore, and 39 lakh of them added in one day.

So 24,500 becomes the biggest support on the board. 09 crore puts, both armies on the same strike. 29 at 25,000. Below the fortress, air until 24,400. The market has drawn a box of around 24,500 to 24,600, and it expires today. Now the volatility masterclass I promised, because this is the special segment for episode 100, and it has three clocks in it. Remember it. Clock one, implied volatility. On Friday the weekly option priced today at under 10 percent while the back weeks sat at almost 11 percent.

The market called this expiry boring. Episode 99 said do not join that trade, do not sell volatility. 2. The curve inverted. Today now costs more than the next month. The boring expiry consensus is dead, and whoever sold volatility at Friday's prices financed that lesson. Clock two, forward volatility. 65 percent between expiry one and expiry two, 11 percent between the next and the monthly. So the inversion is only in the front. Translation, the market fears today, especially the weekly expiry, not the August monthly expiries.

And the third one, write this one down, guys, the theta clock. The straddle closed around 146, expected to open around 120 to 125, that is the overnight decay taken out at the bell. Through the day expect another 30 to 40 points to melt out, and by 3:15 the straddle should be trading somewhere around 80 bucks, like we saw last week, if we stay inside the box. And then comes the last 15 minutes, the closing auction window, the place where these last two weeks taught us the wildness now lives.

That is where the volatility can come back from the dead in one print. So the map of the day in one line. Decay from 9:15 to 3:15, danger from 3:15 to 3:30. And who is holding what into this? I read the pros, or proprietary traders, then the FIIs, and then the retail crowd. 72 lakh puts, both sides, long volatility. They trimmed a little on Monday, that is them booking the IV spike, not leaving the trade. 2 lakh long stock futures. Remember this, they are long the stock futures and short on the index, so a four to one hedged long.

And in cash the roles reversed for the week. FIIs bought 1,975 crore on Monday, their biggest buy in weeks, plus 3,925 crore into index options. The DIIs sold 1,290 crore in cash, their first sell after absorbing 7,000 crore plus all week. The FIIs are buying India and buying the insurance on it, on the same day. 5 lakh puts, naked. 67 lakh as of yesterday, into the expiry morning. And a quick word on the global markets. GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,605 as I record, basically flat, a quiet open.

3 percent. Asia is mixed and calm. The two live wires are elsewhere. 90, up almost 5 percent in two sessions, and gold printed a fresh all time record this morning at 4,426 dollars. 30. Oil at 88 is the wild card under this market, and keep a watch on it, because if oil rallies and we touch 90 dollars, we could see 24,500 getting broken as well. So here is the plan for episode 100, guys, and the bias has not changed. Buy on dips, with a close below 24,500 as the stop and exit for everything.

But today is expiry, so execution matters more than the direction. Naked longs will bleed to nothing by 3:15, like we saw last week. Today the tool is the call spread, guys, not the naked option. Buy the 24,500 call and sell the 24,650 against it, or buy the 24,550 and sell the 24,700 call against it. The ratio can be one by two or two by three. You are buying the strikes below the resistance and selling the strikes the call writers own, so their decay pays for your position all day.

If we pin at 24,600 the spread finishes fat and we get the max out of it, while the straddle buyers bleed. 46 crore trapped calls cover and 24,700 comes first, your spread maxes out. One discipline point, guys. The extra short leg is a bet on the resistance holding. If 24,700 breaks and holds, cut the extra leg without argument. And be flat everything before 3:15, because the last 15 minutes belong to the auction and we do not want to bet on it.

And rule number one from the last hundred episodes stands, do not trade the indicative print. Have a great expiry, guys. One box, one support at 24,500, one double wall resistance at 24,600, one theta clock running till 3:15. Buy the dips, spread the calls, respect the stop, leave the auction alone. This was The Tanmay Edge, episode 100. If the podcast has ever paid you a single good trade, today is the day to share it with one trader friend who needs it right now.

com where it streams first. Give it a rating and review, and tell what the next 100 shows should look like. See you all tomorrow, once again, on episode 101.