24,400 held to the point. Crude broke the calm. War is back. TCS decides Thursday

A very good morning guys. Yesterday the market did something that looks like luck and it is not. It settled at 24,399, and the level every option desk has been defending all week was 24,400. We settled one point away from it. And then, the day before one of the biggest results of the season, a single sector woke up and carried the entire market on its back while everything else was bleeding. But wake up this morning and the picture has changed completely. GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,230, down two-thirds of a percent, a gap down below 24,400 and 24,300 as well, the levels they spent all week defending.

Crude is jumping, the world is turning risk off, and the calm we kept calling cheap is finally getting tested. This is not the quiet reset I expected. Tomorrow is still the real test. This is the turn. This is The Tanmay Edge. Good morning guys, it is Wednesday, 8th of July. One sector held the market up yesterday, and overnight crude and geopolitics stole the story back. So let's go. So the official close for yesterday: Nifty closed at 24,399, down 31 points, about a tenth of a percent.

That snapped a four-day green run, and it snapped gently. The day traded in a band of just 182 points. The high was 24,530, so it reached up and touched the 24,500 resistance ceiling, got rejected, and drifted back down to settle almost exactly on 24,400, before a last 30-minute VWAP sell-off towards that 350 level. So here is the part worth sitting with. All week, the option chain said 24,400 was the support, the sellers of the puts would defend it, and 24,500 was the resistance.

So we closed one point off 24,400. The map did not miss. That is yesterday's map graded, and I will give you the honest number once: on eight calls we made, six landed. Six out of eight. Sensex told the same story guys, 78,180, down 104 points, a quiet pinned day. Now the strange part: only 19 of the 50 names went up on a day the index barely moved. 43 percent, and it rose alone. 86 percent. That is the whole green column basically.

Everything else leaned red. 73 percent, Reliance, L&T, every heavyweight name on the block was down more than a percent. The index only fell a fraction of a percent, because IT physically held it up. Take IT out of yesterday and this is clearly a red day. And the timing is the point. IT had faded for three straight sessions coming in. TCS reports tomorrow for the quarter. So the day before the biggest IT result of the quarter, the money rushed back into IT.

That is not a coincidence, that is positioning, and a bounce happening from the lows of the IT index. Somebody is placing a bet before the number cracks in. So who moved and how. The pro desk first, because they move first. Into Tuesday's expiry the pros had dropped their protection. Yesterday they did the opposite. By closing, they cut their index futures position almost to flat, down to net long of just 5,435 contracts, and they bought back insurance, adding put protection to net long 45,315 puts.

Read that together: the fast money stepped off the gas and put its seatbelt on the night before tomorrow's event. That is caution, guys, and that is a quiet caution that is happening. The foreign desk, they are still deeply net short the index, sitting at minus 2,38,838 contracts. But look at the pace: their shorts went from 2,60,000 to 2,56,000 to 2,50,000 to 2,41,000 and now 2,38,838. The covering has almost stopped. And underneath that, in single stock futures, they are net long 6 lakh contracts, and they added to it again yesterday.

So long the shares, short the index against them. That is a hedged long book, not a bearish call. And on the cash side, official numbers, FII bought 468 crore of stock yesterday, still a buyer. The crowd, or the retail clients, last: clients are net long 1,64,159 index futures and still short 5 lakh puts. So that number has barely moved. The retail is still fully leaned into a range holding while the market is rallying, which means if the support even cracks, that is exactly the pile of fuel that lights up.

So putting it in one line: the pros are cautious, the foreigners stopped covering, and the retail did not blink and maintained their long stance. Because yesterday was expiry, we have a fresh map for the next week. The center of gravity has shifted to 24,400, right where we settled. Overhead we have 24,500, which is the resistance, and it is a heavy one. Traders piled on 51 lakh fresh calls there yesterday, the single biggest build-up anywhere on the board. Below us, 24,300 and 24,200 are the two support levels, each holding about 28 lakh puts that have been written over there.

The gear change is about the 24,400 level. Above it, moves get dampened and the market tends to pin, that is your gamma flip level. Below it, moves speed up and pull towards that 24,300 to 24,200, and it happens extremely fast. We are sitting right on the switch. The options are pricing a swing of around 270 points for the week, that is where the straddle is trading, so roughly between 24,125 and 24,670 is what the market is pricing. And near-week volatility is still cheaper, almost under 10, below the weeks behind it.

The calm has not broken yet, but today it can change completely. But none of this map was built for what walked in overnight. Crude is up sharply, Brent back to 76 dollars, up about two and a half percent, as geopolitical tensions push back into the option chain. New York closed soft, Nasdaq off more than a percent, and Asia opened lower, Korea down hard, though Japan is only mildly red and Hong Kong is actually green, so Asia is off its worst. So GIFT Nifty is pointing us to an open towards 24,230, below that 24,400 gear change and just under the 24,300 support shelf we just talked about, with 24,200 sitting right beneath it.

In other words, the market may open the day already testing the levels that change its character. A jumpy crude and a nervous globe are not the backdrop you want going into a double event. That matters for how you carry the risk today. So everything today points at tomorrow. Thursday is a double event in one session: it is Sensex weekly expiry and TCS starts the result season. That is why yesterday's IT move mattered so much. The entire rush into IT was a bet placed before the numbers start coming in.

If TCS delivers, the bet pays and the IT pack can extend. If it disappoints, that same crowd unwinds fast and it drags. Wednesday today is the day you set your positions, not the day you swing it. So the plan and POV for today is simple guys. We are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today's range is wider, roughly around 24,125 to 24,500, and if the selling has legs, do not rule out a stretch down to 24,000 as well.

This is a day you trade the edges, not the middle. So on a push into 24,400 to 24,500, which might happen by close, sell the rise, and do not wait for the round numbers, that is where everyone else is resting their orders. Offer a touch under it, around 24,475 to 24,485, and you are filled before the crowd. On a flush down, or the market coming down to 24,125, that is your buy zone, so 24,125 to 24,200, buy it, because the whole market is stacked on 24,000 and you want to be ahead of them, and the stop loss should be 24,000.

The middle, 24,200 to 24,300, is no-man's land, that is where you will get chopped up, so try to mean revert your play between that range. So do not build a heavy directional position into tomorrow's double event, that is the mistake the pros just told you not to make by stepping aside themselves, and let IT lead you. Also, the VWAP currently stands at 24,185, so roughly around that 24,200 range is what we are expecting the mean to be for this week. com as well.

That's your edge for today guys. If this added value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I am building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal, link is present in the show notes you just got earlier. See you all tomorrow once again, on Sensex expiry.