The day the reserve Bank speaks MPC

A very good morning, guys. m. Every trade on the screen right now, every position the big money is sitting on, is a bet on what that RBI statement says. Today, the wait ends. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 54. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Let me grade yesterday first, because that's the deal you and I have. Five calls on expiry day, three landed extremely clean. I said the Sensex would pin between 74,000 and 75000, it landed exactly in the middle, closed at 74360, dead inside the range.

I said the Nifty would hold 23300, get capped under 23500, and stay jumpy below 23450, it closed at 23416, high of the day 23465, never touched 23,500. And I said the foreign money was short and hedged, so respect the cap and don't chase the upside, the index went nowhere, up just flat. That is what it had. And the volatility, that's what cost me yesterday. 89. Long vol lost money on the crush. Now, the real test of that trade is today, on the decision itself, because volatility can spike the instant the statement hits.

But on the day, that leg was a miss. I am owning it. Three out of five. So now, today, and one number is what we're looking at: the RBI policy. 25, a hold is the base case. The real question isn't the number, it's the tone. Does the bank sound relaxed and done, or does it sound like it's flagging the oil shock and the weak rupee, warning that it's watching. That tone is what the market will trade, not the rate itself. 25, unchanged, most likely.

And here's why this matters so much today. Look at how the big money is positioned, because it's the most lopsided board I've seen in weeks. In the index futures the FIIs are now net short 2,64,000 contracts. They didn't just hold that bet into the decision, they added to it yesterday. That's the most defensive they have been this entire run. On the exact other side of the trade, the retail clients are sitting with 2,03,000 contracts on the long side. And in the cash market, our DIIs bought again yesterday, almost four thousand, that's 3986 crore of buying.

So picture it: FIIs pressing short, the smaller traders leaning extremely long, and a wall of domestic money underneath holding up the sell-off. Everyone is coiled, waiting for the same ten o'clock trigger. The option market, meanwhile, is pricing this surprisingly calm. 5. The straddle, the cost to bet on a move either way, is only about 324 points. That tells you the market, before the decision, expects a quiet outcome. But that's the trap of an event day. The calm pricing is exactly what blows up if the tone surprises.

And here are your levels for today, and this morning they just shifted. On the Nifty, 23,300 is the support, the heaviest stack of downside protection. 23,500 is the resistance and the wall, with over 7 million call contracts sitting there. It's also the switch, the line where the market flips from jumpy to calm. We closed yesterday at 23416, just under it. But here's what changed overnight: GIFT Nifty has firmed to 23,573 and is now pointing to an open above 23,500. That matters.

If we open above that wall and hold it, the switch flips, we enter positive gamma territory, and those 2,64,000 foreign shorts are offside from the first tick. The next stop above is 23,700. So if 23,500 holds, the next level to watch is easily 23,700. Hold above it and the squeeze is live before the bank even speaks. Lose it and we're back in the 23,300 to 23,500 zone. Now let me map the three ways this goes, because you want the plan before the market starts.

One, the bank holds and sounds relaxed, the dovish tone. That's the relief case, and remember, we may already be opening above 23500, so this just pours fuel on a squeeze that's already lit. Volatility crushes, those 2,64,000 shorts the FIIs are carrying start covering, and the market runs toward 23,700 and beyond. If you see that, you don't sell options into it, you respect the squeeze and play a directional call spread. Two, the bank holds but sounds hawkish and watchful, the base case, and that is the expectation.

Rate steady, but a warning on oil and the rupee. This is the sell-the-news outcome, and this is the one that turns a gap-up open into a trap, it slams back below 23,500 into the box. Volatility still crushes because the event has passed, but there's no clean direction. We chop between 23,300 and 23,500. That's where the trade is patience: you sell premium only after the statement lands, not before. Three, the surprise, an actual rate cut or a real shift in stance. That's when it gets violent.

A cut would squeeze that giant FII book hard and fast, a sharp move up. A hawkish shock lets the shorts win and we crack below 23,300. Either way, the volatility you were long finally pays. The rule here is simple: don't fade the first move, let it run. And the backdrop favours the calm hold. Crude has cooled again, Brent down near 95 and under 96. 02. The two things that could force the bank's hand, runaway oil and spiking yields, are both quiet.

79 to the dollar, and that's exactly what the bank's tone will speak to. Overseas, the US closed at a record on the S&P, but Asia is heavier, Korea down three percent, Nikkei down over one percent, so the global mood is cautious. Yet our own GIFT Nifty is bucking it, trading at 23573, leaning into the decision with a gap up. That's the home crowd betting on a friendly hold. So here is your Friday in one breath. We're set to open above 23500, the foreign shorts already under pressure, and at half past ten the Reserve Bank speaks and releases a week of coiled positioning.

Do not sell volatility before the print, the calm is a trap. The one line that matters from the bell is 23,500: hold above it and the squeeze runs toward 23,700; lose it and the gap-up was a trap back to the 23,300 box. If the tone is soft, the shorts get run over; if it's hawkish, we get slammed back and a choppy session starts; if it surprises, respect the move and don't fade it. The big money is short, the locals are buying, and one statement decides who was right.

My tag for the day: gap up into the verdict, 23,500 is the line, hold it and the shorts squeeze, lose it and we're back in the 23,300 zone where the grind happens. Let the decision lead, don't front-run the bank. If this gave you a clear plan into the decision, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. Subscribe so you never miss a morning and you get the update and notification too. com. And I'm waiting for your reviews, guys, tell me what's working for you and what's not.

This has been The Tanmay Edge. I'm Tanmay Kurtkoti. I'll be back after the bell. Have a happy week, guys, and a happy policy as well. See you all on Monday. Until then, stay sharp.