Brent below 100. FII blinked. Monthly expiry tomorrow

A very good morning guys. So I am sitting here on Monday morning at 8 AM and I am going to start with the part nobody on Twitter is saying out loud. The foreign desk is covering. Not all at once, not yet, but on Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures contracts, 94,000 short calls in one session. After 6 straight weeks of stacking the short higher every Tuesday and Thursday, the first crack in the wall takes 10 minutes to make. The first crack in position takes 6 weeks.

Friday was that first crack and you are listening to the Tanmay Edge. Today is episode 46. Let's go. And while the foreign desk was quietly covering, the professional desk did something I have never seen them do this size in one single session. They added 1,86,102 long calls. And on the same session, they added 1,50,735 long puts. Both sides, no one direction or other. In the numbers that is the desk playing for the moment, not the direction yet. And moment they are telling you Tuesday is going to move.

They are not telling you which way but the move is going to come in. The pattern has repeated five times in May series. Episode 41 caught it the V shape at 23,300. Episode 42 caught it from the bounce at 23,650. Episode 43 as well before Sensex weekly. Episode 44 caught it on Brent crackdown. And now Friday it stacks the biggest version of all five before the monthly settlement. When the same desk repeats the same setup five times and gets paid four times, you stop calling it a coincidence.

You know what to do. And if you don't, listen to it and I'm going to explain what I'm going to take a trade on. Now the macros. 36%, below 100 for the first time in this oil cycle. 51%. The peace pivot that died on Wednesday came back on life on Sunday night. Trump apparently said the Iran war is in its final stages over the weekend. The market has read it. Oil has cracked. The rupee has strengthened as well. 69. 20. The rupee gained 51 paisa overnight on a Sunday.

That does not happen unless something structurally moved. 98%. Safe haven unwind in reverse. 01. 56. 09. Every macro instrument on my screen this morning is telling you the same story. The escalation lane is empty. The peace lane is being repriced. And Asia? Asia is ripping up. 93%. New all-time high on Nikkei. 85%. 82%. 6%. 4 for 4 Asian Greens. US Friday closed at fresh highs. Dow and S&P and Nasdaq, all three indices, three at all-time highs. Eight weeks win streak on S&P.

Last time we had an eight-week streak was December 2023. GIFT Nifty is up almost 267 points from Friday's close. Nifty's cash close was 23,719. 11 percent gap up. That is a big gap up in recent times. Big gap ups gets faded by writers in the first hour almost every time. The setup tells you to wait. Now let me walk you through what Friday's chain is saying about Tuesday's settlement, because if you do not read this before today's open you are going to be flying blindly.

Friday, the 26 May option chain on Nifty did three things that all point the same way. The call sellers at 23,700 unwound 27 lakh contracts in one session. The call sellers at 23,800 unwound 12 lakh contracts. Almost no resistance left between the open and 24,000. On the put side, the put sellers stacked 13 lakh fresh contracts at 23,500. They stacked 18 lakh on 23,750. They stacked 10 lakh at 23,800. The biggest single session put stack on May series is at 23,750.

Remember this. Read that one more time. Sellers are leaving the upside. Sellers are defending the downside. Between 23,500 and 23800, the institutions have planted different supports. 27 crore contracts of calls written over there. So the chain says the magnet for Tuesday's close is somewhere between 23,750 to 800. The implied move from the straddle at 23,700 is 283 points either side, which means the range is at 23,500 to 24,000 on the upside. The pin is in the upper half. The chain has a bullish lean.

Now here is the trade for today. Today is Monday. Tomorrow is Tuesday monthly expiry. We have one full session to position ourselves. Do not chase the gap up open. 15 open, you are already 240 points above Friday's close. The first move is always a fade by the writers. Wait for it. The buy zone, 23,800 to 23,900 on the pullback. That is below the open, above Friday's close and inside the magnet. If we touch 23,815 first start, you are at the pin.

That is your level to enter. Above 24000, today we take some off. 24,000 is the resistance and the ceiling becomes the resistance on the retest. Below 23700, today we re-read. Below 23500, we stand down and wait for Tuesday's open. But that I don't think is going to happen. On Sensex, the math is similar. Friday's close was 75,415. Opening implies a Sensex opening of around 76,200. The pullback zone is 75,800 to 76,000. Above 76,500 we take some profits off the table into Wednesday's expiry.

Below 75,000 we stand down. That is the thing to remember. Hedge today is 23,500 put guys. 82. 84 last week when the hedge was 4 is to 1. 82 the same put costs 55 to 60 bucks. The 4 is to 1 math is now closer to 3 to 1. But still this is a good hedge but you are paying for higher volatility. If you want the cheaper hedge go to 23,400 weekly put at 30 rupees. Does the same job for half the cost and a thinner cushion.

One thing to watch guys by 11 AM. The RBI 5 billion dollar buy-sell swap auction lands tomorrow on the same day as the expiry lands. RBI is putting dollars into the system on same Tuesday that decides where Nifty monthly expires, where Bank Nifty's first monthly under the new last Tuesday rule settles in, and where the weekly Nifty settles as well. That is not a random scheduling. They are giving the rupee a cushion into the supply event. If the INR holds below 96 by Tuesday's close, the dollar swap has worked.

If it does not, that becomes Wednesday's story. Cash flow wise, Friday foreign desk sold around 4440 crores. Domestic mutual funds bought 6003 crores. Domestic absorbed 135% of foreign selling. 10th session in a row of net domestic buying through foreign selling. The pattern is intact. The flows are not the news. The flows are the floor. Two things before I sign off guys. Number one, Friday's grade. The 23,600-700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. 74,900 stand down trigger never fired. 20. 3 out of 5 testable calls hit.

84. Direction right, levels right, volatility regime miscalibrated. Number two. If you want to follow the live calls and the strategy book, RupeeCase Nifty is rebalancing this morning. 10 new names. Day one alpha number prints by Tuesday's close. com. Guys, have a great Monday. Buy the dip. Watch the magnet by Tuesday's close. This was the Tanmay Edge signing off. See you all once again on Tuesday morning.