--- title: "The Writers Swapped Sides On The Last Day | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Nifty expiry day, and the board that settles today changed sides overnight. On Friday the put call ratio on the 15 September board went from 0.640 to 1.057 in" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-15" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP124 # The writers swapped sides on the last day, and we gap up onto the magnet Nifty expiry Headline PCR flipped 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session * **12:12**listen * **1.5/5**graded at settlement * **Tue 15 Sep 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The writers swapped sides on the last day, and we gap up onto the magnet EP124, 15 Sep, 12:12 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes12:12 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 1.5/5 at settlement. **1.5/5**30% **The call.** Headline PCR flipped 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session But most of the call cut was far strike housekeeping at 25,000 and above Near money 22,900 to 23,900 calls plus 42 lakh against puts plus 2.61 crore Near money PCR 1.217, six to one in favour of puts Max pain 23,450, down 50 points from Thursday, with spot 51 points below it 23,300 is the new both sides strike, 98 points below spot Biggest put add on the board 76 lakh at 23,300, second biggest call add 18.47 lakh The both sides strike migrated 23,800 to 23,300, down 100 a session 23,300 now carries 1.38 crore puts, the biggest near money block Both writers abandoned 23,500 calls cut 25 lakh, puts * **1**Hit * **0**Partial * **1**Mechanical * **4**Miss Graded the next trading day, 16 Sep 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's split does not sum to the score denominator; both are shown as recorded. The grader's noteGraded Wed 16 Sep against the Tue settlement 23,118.60, and graded hard by TK himself. Almost every level was wrong. The open came near 23,576 against a called 40 to 90 point gap, nearly double, and 120 points above the 23,450 magnet the plan said we would open on. Support at 23,400 and 23,300 both broke easily. The band of 23,150 to 23,650 was taken out at the low. And the 180 points of implied move left after the gap met an actual range of almost 470. The settle was also the low, so there were no buyers at the end. What survives is the mechanism rather than the call: max pain recomputed from the settlement file was 23,200, the settle landed 80 points from it, and the magnet walked 300 points intraday before pinning inside 32, exactly as the Sensex did on 11 September. The error was using a four day old snapshot on an expiry day, against a rule TK had already written down. One and a half out of five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[September 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-09/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, notThree major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 2. **07**The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, notThree major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 3. **07**The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, notThree major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 4. **07**The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, notThree major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 5. **07**The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, notThree major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 6. **07**The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, notThree major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 7. **07**The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, notThree major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at Cold open: the writers swapped sides **0.640**Settles today flipped **23,450**Max pain We are back after two days of holiday. So the PCR on the board that settles today flipped from 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session on Friday. Max pain is at 23,450 and a gap up puts us straight onto it at the open. The US 10 year yield is at 5 this morning, and Read the chapter The receipt: all three happened **4 percent**VIX rose **12.26**VIX rose percent Four and a half out of five. That is what I will grade for Friday. I said we would open below the band, that volatility would rise, and that the band would shift lower. All three happened. VIX rose 4 percent to 12.26. The range was 23,231 to 23,448, entirely Read the chapter Strip the far strikes before you call a flip **23,450**Pain currently **23,398**Spot settled **51 points**Settled at which **17.91**Open interest stands The max pain currently is at 23,450. It was 23,500 on Thursday, so it came down 50 points on Friday. The spot settled at 23,398, which is 51 points below the magnet. The PCR is at 1.05; on Thursday it was 0.640. Total put open interest stands at 17.91 crore Read the chapter The migration ran five sessions, down 100 a session **76 lakh**Whole board **23,300**Whole board, lakh **18.47**Second biggest call add **1.38**Now carries So 23,300 is the new both sides strike: the biggest put add on the whole board, 76 lakh at 23,300, and the second biggest call add, 18.47 lakh at the same strike. That strike is 98 points below the spot. And the migration, five sessions now: 23,800, then Read the chapter The premium came straight back, and why it matters **6 points**September basis went **87 points**Went from points **80 points**Points in single session **3 lakh**Open interest fell The September basis went from 6 points to 87 points in a single session, 80 points of premium returning in one day, and the futures open interest fell by 3 lakh 96,630. Rising basis on falling open interest is short covering. Thursday was falling basis on Read the chapter The breadth has been frozen for three sessions **23,398**Nifty settled **80 points**Nifty settled **23,448**Low of high **167 points**Took back almost The tape on Friday was very flat. The Nifty settled at 23,398, down 80 points, down 0.34 percent, but it was a reversal day: a low of 23,231, a high of 23,448. It fell 246 points from Thursday's close to the low, then took back almost 167 points into the Read the chapter The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, not a trend **7.01**America at ours **82 points**GIFT Nifty **76 percent**Bullish, with Brent **4,308**Year, while gold Three major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 7.01 from 6.97, Japan at 3. GIFT Nifty is up 82 points and we are the strongest thing on the page, the exact inversion of Friday when Asia was down 2 Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the writers swapped sides We are back after two days of holiday. So the PCR on the board that settles today flipped from 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session on Friday. Max pain is at 23,450 and a gap up puts us straight onto it at the open. The US 10 year yield is at 5 this morning, and I named it at 4.97 on Friday. And 80 points of premium came back into the future in one day, and it came back on short covering. ### *02*The receipt: all three happened Four and a half out of five. That is what I will grade for Friday. I said we would open below the band, that volatility would rise, and that the band would shift lower. All three happened. VIX rose 4 percent to 12.26. The range was 23,231 to 23,448, entirely inside the lower half. I said 23,400 on the map and we settled at 23,398, one point away from it. I said maybe nothing to trade, and the straddle went from 210 to 208. It moved hardly anything. ### *03*Strip the far strikes before you call a flip The max pain currently is at 23,450. It was 23,500 on Thursday, so it came down 50 points on Friday. The spot settled at 23,398, which is 51 points below the magnet. The PCR is at 1.05; on Thursday it was 0.640. Total put open interest stands at 17.91 crore against 16.99 crore of calls, so calls were cut by 2.58 crore over the day and puts were added almost 5.42 crore. So to be honest about where the cut came from. Most of the cut came from the far strikes, and that was housekeeping: the far out of the money strikes went into unwinding, 25,000 and above, which always happens in expiry week. So look inside 22,900 to 23,900, near the money. Calls added 42 lakh, puts added 2.61 crore, six to one in favour of puts. The near money put call ratio is 1.217. That is the writers swapping sides on the second last day. ### *04*The migration ran five sessions, down 100 a session So 23,300 is the new both sides strike: the biggest put add on the whole board, 76 lakh at 23,300, and the second biggest call add, 18.47 lakh at the same strike. That strike is 98 points below the spot. And the migration, five sessions now: 23,800, then 23,700, then 23,500, and now 23,400 and 23,300. Down exactly 100 points a session, four sessions running. 23,300 now carries 1.38 crore puts, the biggest near the money block on the board and the biggest support we are going to see. And both sides walked away from 23,500: calls cut by almost 25 lakh, puts cut by almost 20 lakh. Same strike, same day, both writers exited. A strike both writers abandoned on the second last day has stopped being a reference at all. It still shows 93 lakh calls, so it will read as a resistance. It is thinner than it looks. ### *05*The premium came straight back, and why it matters The September basis went from 6 points to 87 points in a single session, 80 points of premium returning in one day, and the futures open interest fell by 3 lakh 96,630. Rising basis on falling open interest is short covering. Thursday was falling basis on falling open interest, which is long unwinding. Friday is the mirror image of it. The premium did not come back because somebody bought the future. It came back because somebody had to. The Bank Nifty basis went from 125 points to almost 260 in one day. And the far months are being bought outright: October basis 189 points on 3 lakh 20,840 of fresh open interest, November 288 on 61,230. Covering the near month, buying the far ones. This is a positioning move, not a view on today. ### *06*The breadth has been frozen for three sessions The tape on Friday was very flat. The Nifty settled at 23,398, down 80 points, down 0.34 percent, but it was a reversal day: a low of 23,231, a high of 23,448. It fell 246 points from Thursday's close to the low, then took back almost 167 points into the settlement. Bank Nifty went the other way entirely, up 134 points. And the breadth has been frozen for three sessions. Friday, 952 advances against 1,644 declines, an advance decline of 0.597. Thursday, when the index was up, 0.56. Wednesday, when the index was down, 0.56. Three sessions, the index has swung both ways, and two in three stocks have fallen every single session. Whatever is moving the index, it is not moving the market. The foreign futures short is at 2 lakh 84,000 contracts, another run high, rising every single session of this run without one exception, and their book agrees with itself across all three instruments: short 2.8 lakh futures, short 8.7 lakh calls, long 6.7 lakh puts. Retail de-risked both ends, the call book falling to 1 lakh 50,000 while covering 61,000 puts. That is not a view, that is stepping back. And the pros' call book reversed a fourth time in four sessions, a 1 lakh 18,176 swing. A fast book, not conviction. ### *07*The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, not a trend Three major sovereign 10 year yields are sitting on round numbers on the same morning: America at 5, ours at 7.01 from 6.97, Japan at 3. GIFT Nifty is up 82 points and we are the strongest thing on the page, the exact inversion of Friday when Asia was down 2 to 3 percent and we were down half. WTI is at 102.78, Brent back at 107 and both still rated very bullish, with Brent up 76 percent this year, while gold at 4,308 is still bearish and down 0.2 percent for the year. The rupee weakened a fourth consecutive session to 95.55. So the plan. GIFT at 23,525 points to an open of 23,440 to 23,490, a gap of 40 to 90 points, and we open on the magnet. The straddle implied move to the settlement is 260 points and the one SD is 251, so the gap up alone uses 82 of it and there are about 180 points of implied move left. Resistance 23,450, then 23,500, then 23,700, and treat 23,500 with care because both writers cut it. Support 23,400, then 23,300 where 1.38 crore puts sit. The band is 23,150 to 23,650 and we open in the upper half of it. The people who sold 23,300 puts on Friday need the index above 23,300, and max pain says the collective loss is smallest at 23,450, so both point the same way. The counters are the FII shorts at another run high that has not turned once, breadth frozen at 0.56, and a screener that will not buy a single equity index. A pin is settlement mechanics. It is not a trend, so do not read today's close as a direction. Iron flies can be put up at 23,450 with a width of 200 points, 23,650 and 23,250, carried till 3:50. Do not carry anything into the cash session and do not carry anything after 3:15. 04Key takeaways ## 24 things to carry into the session. * *01*Headline PCR flipped 0.640 to 1.05 in a single session * *02*But most of the call cut was far strike housekeeping at 25,000 and above * *03*Near money 22,900 to 23,900: calls plus 42 lakh against puts plus 2.61 crore * *04*Near money PCR 1.217, six to one in favour of puts * *05*Max pain 23,450, down 50 points from Thursday, with spot 51 points below it * *06*23,300 is the new both sides strike, 98 points below spot * *07*Biggest put add on the board 76 lakh at 23,300, second biggest call add 18.47 lakh * *08*The both sides strike migrated 23,800 to 23,300, down 100 a session * *09*23,300 now carries 1.38 crore puts, the biggest near money block * *10*Both writers abandoned 23,500: calls cut 25 lakh, puts cut 20 lakh * *11*23,500 still shows 93 lakh calls but is thinner than it looks * *12*September basis went 6 to 87 points with futures OI falling 3,96,630 * *13*Rising basis on falling OI is short covering, the mirror of Thursday * *14*Bank Nifty basis went 125 to almost 260 in one day * *15*October basis 189 on 3,20,840 fresh OI, November 288 on 61,230 * *16*Nifty settled 23,398, down 80, after a 246 point fall and 167 point recovery * *17*Breadth frozen three sessions: 0.597, 0.56, 0.56, in both directions * *18*FII futures short to 2,84,000, another run high, never once turned * *19*Short 2.8 lakh futures, short 8.7 lakh calls, long 6.7 lakh puts, one direction * *20*Pro call book reversed a fourth time in four sessions, a 1,18,176 swing * *21*Three major sovereign 10 year yields on round numbers: US 5, India 7.01, Japan 3 * *22*Brent back at 107 and up 76 percent this year while gold is down 0.2 * *23*Straddle implied move 260 against a 251 point one SD, gap uses 82 of it * *24*Plan on record: open on the magnet, band 23,150 to 23,650, iron fly at 23,450 Show all 24 05In his words The premium did not come back because somebody bought the future. It came back because somebody had to. Most of the cut came from the far strikes, and that was housekeeping. That is the writers swapping sides on the second last day. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,336 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. We are back after two days of holiday. 05 in a single session on Friday. Max pain is at 23,450 and a gap up puts us straight onto it at the open. The US 10 year yield is at 5 this morning. 97 on Friday. And 80 points of premium came back into the future in one day, and it came back on short covering. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 124. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So four and a half out of five. That is what I will grade for Friday. I said we would open below the band, that volatility would rise, and that the band would shift lower. All three happened. 26. The range was 23,231 to 23,448, entirely inside the lower half. I said 23,400 on the map. We settled at 23,398, one point away from it. I said maybe nothing to trade. The straddle went from 210 to 208. It moved hardly anything. So what happened, and what happens today? That is the main question. The max pain currently is at 23,450. It was 23,500 on Thursday, so it came down 50 points on Friday. The spot settled at 23,398, which is 51 points below the magnet. 05. 640. 99 crore of calls. 42 crore. So to be honest about where the cut came from. Most of the cut came from the far strikes. That was housekeeping. The far out of the money strikes went into unwinding, 25,000 and above, which always happens in expiry week. So look inside 22,900 to 23,900, near the money. 61 crore, six to one in favour of puts. 217. That is the writers swapping sides on the second last day. So 23,300 is the new both sides strike. 47 lakh at the same strike. That strike is 98 points below the spot. And the migration, five sessions now: 23,800, then 23,700, then 23,500, and now 23,400 and 23,300. Down exactly 100 points a session, four sessions running. 38 crore puts. That is the biggest near the money block on the board and the biggest support we are going to see. And both sides walked away from 23,500. Calls cut by almost 25 lakh, puts cut by almost 20 lakh. Same strike, same day, both writers exited. A strike both writers abandoned on the second last day has stopped being a reference at all. It still shows 93 lakh calls, so it will read as a resistance. It is thinner than it looks. So the premium came straight back. The September basis went from 6 points to 87 points in a single session, 80 points of premium returning in one day, and the futures open interest fell by 3 lakh 96,630. Rising basis on falling open interest is short covering. Thursday was falling basis on falling open interest, which is long unwinding. Friday is the mirror image of it. The premium did not come back because somebody bought the future. It came back because somebody had to. The Bank Nifty basis went from 125 points to almost 260 in one day. And the far months are being bought outright. October basis 189 points on 3 lakh 20,840 of fresh open interest. November 288 on 61,230 of fresh open interest getting added over there. Covering the near month, buying the far ones. This is a positioning move, not a view on today. So the tape on Friday was very flat. 34 percent, but it was a reversal day. A low of 23,231, a high of 23,448. It fell 246 points from Thursday's close to the low, then took back almost 167 points into the settlement. 24 percent. 26. And the breadth has been frozen for three sessions. 597. 56. 56. Three sessions, the index has swung both ways, and two in three stocks have fallen every single session. Whatever is moving the index, it is not moving the market. And what the open interest says about the other moves: fresh shorts, open interest up and the price down, and we are seeing that happening across the board. And on positioning, the foreign futures short is at 2 lakh 84,000 contracts, another run high. 7 lakh puts. Three instruments, one direction. Retail de-risked both ends. The clients' call book fell to 1 lakh 50,000 and they covered 61,000 puts at the same time. Less upside and less downside. That is not a view, that is stepping back. And the pros' call book reversed a fourth time in four sessions, a 1 lakh 18,176 swing. I told you last week it was a fast book and not a conviction book. Friday settles it. Moving on. On the flows, the foreigners sold 930 crore in cash, the domestic investors bought 1,968 crore in cash on Friday. Foreign index options bought 4,435 crore, Nifty futures sold 573 crore. Cumulatively this run, the foreigners are minus 11,069 crore against domestic plus 66,202 crore. So the round numbers, and what has landed this morning. The US 10 year yield is at 5. 97, three basis points away. 01. 97, and ours has finally started to move. Japan is at 3. Three major sovereign 10 year yields sitting on round numbers on the same morning. 65 percent. 37, and so on. GIFT Nifty is trading up 82 points. We are the strongest thing on the page. That is the exact inversion of Friday. Friday, Asia was down 2 to 3 percent and we were down half a percent. Today Asia is flat to mixed and we lead it back. So one worry. 39. Brent is back at 107. Both still rated very bullish. Brent is up 76 percent this year. 2 percent for the year while oil is up 76. 61. So the plan is simple, guys. GIFT Nifty is at 23,525, up 82 points. That points to an open of 23,440 to 23,490, a gap of 40 to 90 points. We open on the magnet. Max pain stands at 23,450 and the gap up puts us straight over there. The straddle implied move to the settlement is 260 points. The one SD is 251 points. The gap up alone uses 82 points out of it, so there are about 180 points of implied move left for the day. Resistance stands at 23,450, then 23,500, and then 23,700. Treat 23,500 with care. It shows 94 lakh but both writers cut it on Friday. 38 crore puts sit. So the band is 23,150 to 23,650. Remember this, we open in the upper half of it. So once again I will repeat, the band is 23,150 to 23,650 and we are opening in the upper half of the band. And the setup: the people who sold 23,300 puts on Friday need the index at or above 23,300, and max pain says the collective loss is smallest at 23,450. Both point the same way, and that is the one strike we have to keep a watch on. 56 for three sessions, and a screener that will not buy a single equity index. A pin is settlement mechanics. It is not a trend. So do not read today's close as a direction. We gap up onto the max pain and 180 points of implied move is left. Remember it. 55. And structurally, it is settlement day. The straddle is 208 against a 260 point implied move. That is a bad day to buy premium and a dangerous one to sell. So iron flies can be put up at 23,450 with a width of 200 points, that is 23,650 and 23,250 on the bottom end, and can be carried till 3:50. Do not carry anything into the cash session. Also, if you liked this episode, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. Give it a rating, guys. And have a happy expiry, do not over trade, and do not carry anything after 3:15. See you all once again tomorrow. Questions ## EP124, in plain words. What does EP124 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP124, Tuesday 15 Sep 2026, 12:12, in 7 chapters: Cold open: the writers swapped sides; The receipt: all three happened; Strip the far strikes before you call a flip; The migration ran five sessions, down 100 a session; The premium came straight back, and why it matters; The breadth has been frozen for three sessions; The plan: a pin is settlement mechanics, not a trend. How did the calls in EP124 score?Grade 1.5/5 (30 percent): 1 hit, 0 partial, 1 mechanical, 4 miss. Graded the next trading day, 16 Sep 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [StrategyDynamic Asset Allocator strategyNifty Total Market plus debt and gold, 52 stocks, every 3 weeks](/strategies/dynamic-asset-allocator) * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [Free module 7.6Corporate Earnings Cycle in India10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-6-corporate-earnings-cycle-india) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. 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