--- title: "I Called The Pin And It Landed Inside | The Tanmay Edge" description: "I called the pin yesterday and it landed inside three points. I also told you to buy volatility, and that leg lost 349 points. And this morning Brent is" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-11" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP123 # I called the pin and it landed inside three points. I also told you to buy volatility and that leg lost 349. Brent went vertical to 107.85, The nikkei is down three percent The Sensex pin landed three points out, but the long volatility leg lost * **8:36**listen * **4.5/5**graded at settlement * **Fri 11 Sep 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing I called the pin and it landed inside three points. I also told you to buy volatility and that leg lost 349. EP123, 11 Sep, 8:36 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:36 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4.5/5 at settlement. **4.5/5**90% **The call.** The Sensex pin landed three points out, but the long volatility leg lost Nifty closed 23,477, up 46, while 934 stocks rose against 1,667 that fell Advance decline 0.56, the same ratio as the day the index fell India VIX gave back Wednesday s bid in one session to 11.72 Adani Ports minus 0.39 from plus 3.80 and Tata Steel minus 1.04 from plus 2.50 IT stopped falling after exactly one day, minus 0.08 after minus 3.24 Max pain came to the market 23,600 to 23,500, only 22 points above spot Calls added 2.48 crore against 2.41 crore of puts, the first even day of the run The both sides strike migrated a third time, 23,700 to 23,500 to 23,400 Biggest call * **4**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded the next trading day, 15 Sep 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's noteGraded Tue 15 Sep against the Fri close 23,398. Three stated calls and all three landed. The plan said we would open below the band, that volatility would rise, and that the band would shift lower: the session opened under it, VIX rose 4 percent to 12.26, and the range of 23,231 to 23,448 sat entirely inside the lower half. The map level of 23,400 settled at 23,398, one point away. And the honest half was right too, maybe nothing to trade, with the straddle moving 210 to 208 across the whole session. The partial is that the gap down was given as 140 to 190 points against a session that reversed 167 points off its low. Four and a half out of five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[September 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-09/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**The plan: maybe nothing to tradeAsia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 2. **07**The plan: maybe nothing to tradeAsia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 3. **07**The plan: maybe nothing to tradeAsia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 4. **07**The plan: maybe nothing to tradeAsia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 5. **07**The plan: maybe nothing to tradeAsia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 6. **07**The plan: maybe nothing to tradeAsia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 7. **07**The plan: maybe nothing to tradeAsia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus Cold open: the pin landed, the volatility leg lost Yesterday I called a pin and it landed exactly three points out. And I also told you to buy volatility, and that leg lost. So this morning Brent is at 108 and the KOSPI is down 3 percent. Read the chapter The index went up and two in three stocks went down **23,477**Nifty closed **46 points**Nifty closed **1,667**Stocks up against **0.56**Advance decline ratio The Nifty closed 23,477, up 46 points yesterday, but the cash market was 934 stocks up against 1,667 down. The advance decline ratio of 0.56 is the same ratio as the day before, when the index fell. So this was not a recovery. It was a narrow bounce on Read the chapter The magnet came to the market **23,500**Expiry came **23,600**Above the spot **2.48**Calls added **2.41**Crore against The max pain on the 15 September expiry came down to 23,500, only 22 points above the spot, from 23,600 and 168 points the day before. The Nifty magnet is doing exactly what the Sensex magnet did in the two days before it pinned that settlement. Calls added Read the chapter The map moved again, and one strike broke symmetry **23,700**Both sides strike **23,500**Strike was on Tuesday **23,400**Tuesday, on Wednesday **38.76**Biggest call add The both sides strike was 23,700 on Tuesday, 23,500 on Wednesday, and 23,400 on Thursday, where the biggest call add of 38.76 lakh and the biggest put add both landed on the same strike. Meanwhile 23,500 broke its symmetry. Calls added 36 lakh whereas puts Read the chapter The number of the day: the premium vanished **6.20**September basis collapsed **124 points**Nifty basis fell The Nifty September basis collapsed to 6.20 from plus 120 points. That is 114 points of premium gone in one session, and the futures open interest fell. So this was unwinding, not fresh selling. For two days I told you the rising basis on rising open interest Read the chapter A fast book, and a screener that emptied out **44,990**Net short **14,552**Tuesday, net long **17,000**Retail finally covered The foreign futures short went to another run high. It has risen every single session of this run without one exception. But the professionals did a round trip in a day. Net short 44,990 on Tuesday, net long 14,552 on Wednesday, and yesterday net short again. Read the chapter The plan: maybe nothing to trade **2,000**Percent, nearly **2.54**KOSPI is minus **1.73**Taiwan minus **0.49**Even if Asia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 1.73, and Shanghai is down even if only 0.49. So Asia is down 2 to 3 percent and we are down half. Either we catch down, or the domestic bid is real Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the pin landed, the volatility leg lost Yesterday I called a pin and it landed exactly three points out. And I also told you to buy volatility, and that leg lost. So this morning Brent is at 108 and the KOSPI is down 3 percent. ### *02*The index went up and two in three stocks went down The Nifty closed 23,477, up 46 points yesterday, but the cash market was 934 stocks up against 1,667 down. The advance decline ratio of 0.56 is the same ratio as the day before, when the index fell. So this was not a recovery. It was a narrow bounce on unchanged breadth. India VIX gave back Wednesday's bid in a single day, down to 11.72. And every sector that worked on Wednesday failed on Thursday. Banks led, with HDFC Bank up 0.98 percent after losing 2.26. IT stopped falling after exactly one day, the IT index minus 0.08 after minus 3.24. And yesterday's winners gave it all back. Adani Ports minus 0.39 from plus 3.80. Tata Steel minus 1.04 from plus 2.50. Trent minus 0.05 from plus 0.95. Metals minus 0.65 after plus 1.79. Nothing led two days running, and that is what the market is: rotating on a one day clock. ### *03*The magnet came to the market The max pain on the 15 September expiry came down to 23,500, only 22 points above the spot, from 23,600 and 168 points the day before. The Nifty magnet is doing exactly what the Sensex magnet did in the two days before it pinned that settlement. Calls added 2.48 crore against 2.41 crore of puts, the first time in this run both sides added the same amount, after two sessions of calls being written three to one. ### *04*The map moved again, and one strike broke symmetry The both sides strike was 23,700 on Tuesday, 23,500 on Wednesday, and 23,400 on Thursday, where the biggest call add of 38.76 lakh and the biggest put add both landed on the same strike. Meanwhile 23,500 broke its symmetry. Calls added 36 lakh whereas puts were taken off, 18 lakh. The put writers walked away and the call writers piled in on that strike. When both sides stop agreeing on a strike, it stops being a magnet and starts being a resistance. And one oddity. The biggest put add on the whole board was 34 lakh at the 22,500 strike, which is surprising, because that is 977 points below the spot. That is not a level. That is somebody paying for deep protection on a rainy day. ### *05*The number of the day: the premium vanished The Nifty September basis collapsed to 6.20 from plus 120 points. That is 114 points of premium gone in one session, and the futures open interest fell. So this was unwinding, not fresh selling. For two days I told you the rising basis on rising open interest was fresh buying of premium. Yesterday every bit of it came out. The people who paid for the future left. And the Bank Nifty basis fell to 124 points from 397, except that its open interest grew. So that one is fresh selling into the future rather than long unwinding. ### *06*A fast book, and a screener that emptied out The foreign futures short went to another run high. It has risen every single session of this run without one exception. But the professionals did a round trip in a day. Net short 44,990 on Tuesday, net long 14,552 on Wednesday, and yesterday net short again. They bought the upside on the day the index closed on its low, and sold it back the moment it went green. That is a fast book, not conviction. And retail finally covered 17,000 puts after three sessions of selling more into the fall. And the screener emptied out, which is its own signal. Energy went from plus 230 and rank one strong buy, to minus 2, in a single session. What is left in the buy list is volatility, the America 10 year, and the dollar index. That is all of it. When the only things a momentum screener will buy are volatility and a government bond yield, it is not choosing a sector. It is telling you to be out of the equity market. Both models remain in sell, the Sensex as well. ### *07*The plan: maybe nothing to trade Asia is in a rout. The Nikkei is down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. The KOSPI is minus 2.54, Taiwan minus 1.73, and Shanghai is down even if only 0.49. So Asia is down 2 to 3 percent and we are down half. Either we catch down, or the domestic bid is real, and the first hour decides which it is. The rupee has weakened a third consecutive session to 95.44, but note the difference: for two sessions this was a domestic story because the dollar was flat, and today the dollar is bid as well, so now it is both. Gold fell to 4,326 and was downgraded back to bearish, giving up the neutral upgrade of a day before. Gold falling while oil goes vertical and yields rise everywhere is the real trade. This is not a fear trade. It is a rates and supply trade. GIFT Nifty is at 23,346, down 114, which puts the open at 23,290 to 23,340, a gap down of 140 to 190 points, and it opens us below the band of 23,364 and below the 23,400 strike for the first time in this sequence. 23,400 is the map: reclaim it and the pin goes to 23,500, fail it and we see 23,200, the next level down, where 27 lakh puts were added yesterday. Resistance 23,400, 23,500 and 23,600. Support 23,364, then 23,200, then 23,000 where the heaviest put on the board sits. The band is 23,364 to 23,592, but we are opening below it, so expect volatility to rise and the band to shift a bit lower. Three sessions to expiry, volatility has given back its spike, the 23,400 straddle is only 210, and we are gapping into a global risk off. That is a bad setup for selling premium and not a great one for buying it either. Define the risk, if any at all. And the honest answer today is maybe there is nothing to trade, and stay on the sidelines. 04Key takeaways ## 24 things to carry into the session. * *01*The Sensex pin landed three points out, but the long volatility leg lost * *02*Nifty closed 23,477, up 46, while 934 stocks rose against 1,667 that fell * *03*Advance decline 0.56, the same ratio as the day the index fell * *04*India VIX gave back Wednesday's bid in one session to 11.72 * *05*Adani Ports minus 0.39 from plus 3.80 and Tata Steel minus 1.04 from plus 2.50 * *06*IT stopped falling after exactly one day, minus 0.08 after minus 3.24 * *07*Max pain came to the market: 23,600 to 23,500, only 22 points above spot * *08*Calls added 2.48 crore against 2.41 crore of puts, the first even day of the run * *09*The both sides strike migrated a third time, 23,700 to 23,500 to 23,400 * *10*Biggest call add 38.76 lakh at 23,400, with the biggest put add on the same strike * *11*23,500 broke symmetry: calls added 36 lakh while puts were cut 18 lakh * *12*Biggest put add on the whole board was 34 lakh at 22,500, 977 points below spot * *13*Nifty September basis collapsed to 6.20 from 120, with futures OI falling * *14*So the premium unwound rather than being sold into * *15*Bank Nifty basis fell to 124 from 397 but on RISING OI, so fresh selling * *16*Pro call book round tripped: short 44,990, long 14,552, then short again * *17*Bought the upside on the low and sold it back the moment it went green * *18*Retail finally covered 17,000 puts after three sessions of selling into the fall * *19*CNX Energy went from plus 230 and rank one strong buy to minus 2 in a session * *20*The screener buy list is now volatility, the America 10 year and the dollar index * *21*Nikkei down 3.6 percent, nearly 2,000 points, with Asia down 2 to 3 and India half * *22*Rupee to 95.44 a third session, and now the dollar is bid too, so it is both * *23*Gold fell to 4,326 and back to bearish: a rates and supply trade, not fear * *24*Plan on record: 23,400 is the map, band 23,364 to 23,592, maybe nothing to trade Show all 24 05In his words Yesterday I called a pin and it landed exactly three points out. And I also told you to buy volatility, and that leg lost. The index went up and two in three stocks went down. This was not a recovery. It was a narrow bounce on unchanged breadth. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,072 words, about 5 min to read A very good morning, guys. Yesterday I called a pin and it landed exactly three points out. And I also told you to buy volatility, and that leg lost. So this morning Brent is at 108 and the KOSPI is down 3 percent. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 123. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let's see what happened on the tape. The index went up and two in three stocks went down. The Nifty closed 23,477, up 46 points yesterday, but the cash market was 934 stocks up against 1,667 down. 56 is the same ratio as the day before, when the index fell. So this was not a recovery. It was a narrow bounce on unchanged breadth. 72. And every sector that worked on Wednesday failed on Thursday. 26. 24. And yesterday's winners gave it all back. 80. 50. 95. 79. Nothing led two days running, and that is what the market is: rotating on a one day clock. Now this is where the max pain and the board analysis comes in. The max pain on the 15 September expiry came down to 23,500, only 22 points above the spot, from 23,600 and 168 points the day before. The Nifty magnet is doing exactly what the Sensex magnet did in the two days before it pinned that settlement. 41 crore of puts. The first time in this run both sides added the same amount, after two sessions of calls being written three to one. And the map moved again. 76 lakh and the biggest put add both landed on the same strike. Meanwhile 23,500 broke its symmetry. Calls added 36 lakh whereas puts were taken off, 18 lakh. The put writers walked away and the call writers piled in on that strike. When both sides stop agreeing on a strike, it stops being a magnet and starts being a resistance. And one oddity. The biggest put add on the whole board was 34 lakh at the 22,500 strike, which is surprising, because that is 977 points below the spot. That is not a level. That is somebody paying for deep protection on a rainy day. Here is the number of the day, guys. 20 from plus 120 points. That is 114 points of premium gone in one session, and the futures open interest fell. So this was unwinding, not fresh selling. For two days I told you the rising basis on rising open interest was fresh buying of premium. Yesterday every bit of it came out. The people who paid for the future left. And the Bank Nifty basis fell to 124 points from 397, except that its open interest grew. So that one is fresh selling into the future rather than long unwinding. On the positioning, guys, the foreign futures short went to another run high. It has risen every single session of this run without one exception. But the professionals did a round trip in a day. Net short 44,990 on Tuesday, net long 14,552 on Wednesday, and yesterday net short again. They bought the upside on the day the index closed on its low, and sold it back the moment it went green. That is a fast book, not conviction. And retail finally covered 17,000 puts after three sessions of selling more into the fall. And the screener emptied out, which is its own signal. Energy went from plus 230 and rank one strong buy, to minus 2, in a single session. What is left in the buy list is volatility, the America 10 year, and the dollar index. That is all of it. When the only things a momentum screener will buy are volatility and a government bond yield, it is not choosing a sector. It is telling you to be out of the equity market. Both models remain in sell, the Sensex as well. And Asia is in a rout, guys. 6 percent, nearly 2,000 points. 49 percent. So Asia is down 2 to 3 percent and we are down half. Either we catch down, or the domestic bid is real, and the first hour decides which it is. America fell for a straight session and Europe also closed down. 44, but note the difference. For two sessions this was a domestic story, because the dollar was flat. Today the dollar is bid as well. So now it is both. And gold fell to 4,326 and was downgraded back to bearish, giving up the neutral upgrade of a day before. Gold falling while oil goes vertical and yields rise everywhere is the real trade. This is not a fear trade. It is a rates and supply trade. So the plan, guys. GIFT Nifty is at 23,346, down 114 points, which puts the open at 23,290 to 23,340. That is a gap down of 140 to 190 points, and it opens us below the band of 23,364 and below the 23,400 strike for the first time in this sequence. 23,400 is the map. Reclaim it and the magnet, or the pin, goes to 23,500. Fail it and we see 23,200, the next shelf, where 27 lakh puts were added yesterday. Resistance still stands at 23,400, 23,500 and 23,600. Support is 23,364, then 23,200, then 23,000, where the heaviest put on the board sits. The band for the day, guys, is 23,364 to 23,592, but we are opening below that band. So expect a rise in volatility as well, and probably the band shifting a bit lower. And the risks: oil at 108 on a weakening rupee, Asia down 2 to 3 percent while we are down half. And on the structure, three sessions to expiry, volatility has given back its spike, the 23,400 straddle is only 210, and we are gapping into a global risk off. That is a bad setup for selling premium and not a great one for buying it either. Define the risk, if any at all, guys. And the honest answer today is maybe there is nothing to trade, and stay on the sidelines. com. So if you liked this episode, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. Give it a rating, guys, if you want to add something to the podcast, and a thumbs up if you liked it. So have a happy Friday, a happy weekend, and see you all once again on Monday. Questions ## EP123, in plain words. What does EP123 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP123, Friday 11 Sep 2026, 8:36, in 7 chapters: Cold open: the pin landed, the volatility leg lost; The index went up and two in three stocks went down; The magnet came to the market; The map moved again, and one strike broke symmetry; The number of the day: the premium vanished; A fast book, and a screener that emptied out; The plan: maybe nothing to trade. How did the calls in EP123 score?Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 15 Sep 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [StrategyDynamic Asset Allocator strategyNifty Total Market plus debt and gold, 52 stocks, every 3 weeks](/strategies/dynamic-asset-allocator) * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [Free module 1.3Indices & Benchmarks13 min read](/learn/path-1/module-1-3-indices-and-benchmarks) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. 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