--- title: "The Morning Korea Broke, A Fourth Record | The Tanmay Edge" description: "This morning, Korea broke. The KOSPI, up twelve percent in a five session melt-up, gave back 5.4 percent in a single morning. The Nikkei fell 2.4 percent" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-19" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP106 # The morning korea broke A fourth record naked put book meets the pros' first bearish lean, oil prints 92, and the battlefield is 24,000 to 24,300 KOSPI down 5.36 percent the five day rally crashed in one session * **10:34**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 19 Aug 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The morning korea broke EP106, 19 Aug, 10:34 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:34 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** The Morning Korea Broke KOSPI Minus 5.36 Nikkei Minus 600 Off Record Brent 92.04 Rupee 95.68 Weakest Ever Sixth Straight Lower Close 24,155 Minus 317 In Six Sessions Settled 195 Below Max Pain Edu Sliding Market Beats A Static Magnet Clients 4th Record 6.97 L Naked Puts Plus 1.66 L Calls Pros Dumped The Call Leg Net Short 0.71 L First Bearish Lean Of The Month FII Long 6.11 L Puts Fut Short 1.94 L Cycle High Cash +1,652 Cr DII +2,579 Cr Max Pain 24,300-350 Above Spot Base 24,000 1.14 Cr Puts PCR 0.82 Plan Smallest Size 24,000 To 24,350 Break Case Korea And Oil * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded against the 20 Aug 2026 session; on the public trail from 21 Aug 2026. The grader's noteGraded Thu 20 Aug against the Wed close 24,078. The bearish read held, the seventh straight lower close printed and the 24,000 base case held to the tick with a 24,025 low, exactly the zone flagged. The smallest size and let the level prove itself call kept risk small through it. The bounce toward 24,300 to 350 that the magnet argued for never came, so the one miss was the retracement. Four on five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[August 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-08/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**The plan: smallest size, let the level proveAfter two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level 2. **07**The plan: smallest size, let the level proveAfter two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level 3. **07**The plan: smallest size, let the level proveAfter two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level 4. **07**The plan: smallest size, let the level proveAfter two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level 5. **07**The plan: smallest size, let the level proveAfter two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level 6. **07**The plan: smallest size, let the level proveAfter two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level 7. **07**The plan: smallest size, let the level proveAfter two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level Cold open: the morning korea broke **600 points**Percent, minus **1.33 percent**Nasdaq yesterday closed **92.04**Brent is trading **95.68**Rupee is trading Today the KOSPI is down 5.36 percent this morning. The five days the market went up, crashed in one session. The Nikkei is down 2.37 percent, minus 600 points off its record. The Nasdaq yesterday closed 1.33 percent and the S&P was down 0.69 percent. Brent is Read the chapter The tape: six straight lower closes **24,155**Tuesday's expiry settled **132 points**Tuesday's expiry settled **0.55 percent**Settled at points lower **24,223**Gap down open Tuesday's expiry settled at 24,155, 132 points lower, 0.55 percent, at the low of the day. A gap down open at 24,223, a high of 24,269, no recovery throughout the session, and the session printed the low. The fall has started from 24,472 and now we are at Read the chapter The two books that diverged: the crowd **6.08**Lakh, went **6.97**Yesterday closed **37,000**Sold almost **1.66**Burning at settlement, plus The clients hit a fourth consecutive record in naked put selling. They started with 5.74 lakh, went to 6.08, then 6.61, and yesterday closed at 6.97 lakh of naked put writing. They sold almost 37,000 more puts while the third record was burning at settlement Read the chapter The pros: first directional lean of the month **0.71**Net short calls The proprietary desks dumped the call leg. They had long puts and long calls that they had carried, now they are carrying net short calls of 0.71 lakh. Their first directional bearish lean of the month. All the cycle they traded volatility both sides. Read the chapter The FIIs: hedge growing, cash buying **6.11**Now long **6 lakh**Lakh, first time **1.09**Yesterday they bought almost **1.94**Futures short of almost Puts, they are now long 6.11 lakh, first time over 6 lakh, and yesterday they bought almost 1.09 lakh in one day. Along with that, index futures short of almost 1.94 lakh, a new cycle high. But in the cash market they are buying, and in stock futures they are Read the chapter The board: max pain above spot **24,300**Pain still stands **1.1**Call writers pressed again **24,200**Lakh added **69 lakh**Lakh added at almost Max pain still stands at 24,300 to 350, 145 to 150 points above the spot. The magnet argues bounce for once, but we are not seeing that bounce happening yet. The call writers pressed again, 1.1 crore at 24,200 and 24,300 in one day. Almost 54.5 lakh added at Read the chapter The plan: smallest size, let the level prove itself **24,000**Been cracking **24,300**Analysis centred **24,250**Analysis centred After two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level proves itself. The market has been cracking down, but 24,000 is the level I am looking for, so 24,000 to 24,350 is the zone. The bounce case is around Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the morning korea broke Today the KOSPI is down 5.36 percent this morning. The five days the market went up, crashed in one session. The Nikkei is down 2.37 percent, minus 600 points off its record. The Nasdaq yesterday closed 1.33 percent and the S&P was down 0.69 percent. Brent is trading at 92.04, still climbing through the fired trigger, and the rupee is trading at 95.68, the weakest close ever. And our own tape walks in six days down continuously. This is the global morning. ### *02*The tape: six straight lower closes Tuesday's expiry settled at 24,155, 132 points lower, 0.55 percent, at the low of the day. A gap down open at 24,223, a high of 24,269, no recovery throughout the session, and the session printed the low. The fall has started from 24,472 and now we are at 24,155, minus 317 points in six sessions. The staircase is now a trend. The Sensex closed at 77,235, minus almost 500 points, also at its low. Breadth was 10 up and 40 down. The settlement happened 195 points below the max pain. A sliding market beats a static magnet every time. The only green pocket was defensives, 1.29 percent positive, IT down 1.93, realty down 1.42. ### *03*The two books that diverged: the crowd The clients hit a fourth consecutive record in naked put selling. They started with 5.74 lakh, went to 6.08, then 6.61, and yesterday closed at 6.97 lakh of naked put writing. They sold almost 37,000 more puts while the third record was burning at settlement, plus 1.66 lakh fresh calls bought. So clients are maximum bullish both directions. Six red days, they are facing the pain on the puts and shifting it lower and lower, and calls they are buying more and more. ### *04*The pros: first directional lean of the month The proprietary desks dumped the call leg. They had long puts and long calls that they had carried, now they are carrying net short calls of 0.71 lakh. Their first directional bearish lean of the month. All the cycle they traded volatility both sides. Yesterday they picked one side, the downward, and today we see whether they book it. When the crowd shows no fear and the pros show their first sign of picking a direction, the second group is the one we lean into. ### *05*The FIIs: hedge growing, cash buying Puts, they are now long 6.11 lakh, first time over 6 lakh, and yesterday they bought almost 1.09 lakh in one day. Along with that, index futures short of almost 1.94 lakh, a new cycle high. But in the cash market they are buying, and in stock futures they are buying. In cash they bought 1,652 crore, and the DIIs bought 2,579 crore. In index options they bought 24,163, washed out with the expiry. Four weeks, the same picture. Own the stock, hedge it in the insurance, that is what the trend is showing. ### *06*The board: max pain above spot Max pain still stands at 24,300 to 350, 145 to 150 points above the spot. The magnet argues bounce for once, but we are not seeing that bounce happening yet. The call writers pressed again, 1.1 crore at 24,200 and 24,300 in one day. Almost 54.5 lakh added at 24,200, almost 69 lakh at 24,300, 80 lakh at 24,400, and 24,500 at 1.21 crore. So resistance across the board from 24,200 to 24,500. Support, the base case is 24,000 where 1.14 crore puts have been written, and between that it is thin air. PCR at 0.82 showing a weak expiry, the weekly straddle 217 to 270, front IV just below 10, and the monthly basis 75 positive points, so no panic in the futures. And the Sensex expiry is tomorrow with IV building to 11 percent versus the Nifty's below 10. The auction premium returns. ### *07*The plan: smallest size, let the level prove itself After two days of stop losses, we do not change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level proves itself. The market has been cracking down, but 24,000 is the level I am looking for, so 24,000 to 24,350 is the zone. The bounce case is around 150 to 160 points, so I keep my analysis centred around 24,300 to 24,250. The break case is Korea and oil, and oil is already at 92. The pros are short calls, so if we see unwinding on the client side we could see the bounce. Until then the market is still bearish and volatility is rising. And tomorrow is the Sensex expiry, so sell the straddle today with stop losses, and if the straddle keeps rising, get out of it. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*KOSPI down 5.36 percent the five day rally crashed in one session * *02*Nikkei down 2.37 percent minus 600 points off its record * *03*Brent 92.04 still climbing rupee 95.68 the weakest close ever * *04*Expiry settled 24,155 down 132 at the low of the day * *05*Sixth straight lower close minus 317 points in six sessions from 24,472 * *06*Sensex closed 77,235 down almost 500 also at its low breadth 10 up 40 down * *07*Settlement 195 points below max pain a sliding market beats a static magnet * *08*Only defensives green 1.29 percent IT down 1.93 realty down 1.42 * *09*Clients fourth consecutive record 6.97 lakh naked puts plus 37,000 more sold * *10*Clients bought 1.66 lakh fresh calls maximum bullish both directions * *11*Pros dumped the call leg net short 0.71 lakh calls first bearish lean of the month * *12*FII long 6.11 lakh puts first time over 6 lakh with 1.09 lakh bought in a day * *13*FII index futures short 1.94 lakh a new cycle high * *14*FII cash bought 1,652 crore DII 2,579 crore index options 24,163 crore * *15*Max pain 24,300 to 350 sitting 145 to 150 points above the spot * *16*Call writers added 1.1 crore across 24,200 and 24,300 in one day * *17*Resistance 24,200 to 24,500 base support 24,000 with 1.14 crore puts * *18*PCR 0.82 weak expiry straddle 217 to 270 front IV just below 10 * *19*Sensex expiry tomorrow IV building to 11 percent the auction premium returns * *20*Plan smallest size 24,000 to 24,350 zone break case is Korea and oil at 92 Show all 20 05In his words The five days the market went up, crashed in one session. The staircase is now a trend. A sliding market beats a static magnet every time. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,146 words, about 5 min to read A very good morning, guys. 36 percent this morning. The five days the market went up, crashed in one session. 37 percent, minus 600 points off its record. 69 percent. 68, the weakest close ever. And our own tape walks in six days down continuously. This is the global morning, and this is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 106. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first, yesterday's expiry, guys. 55 percent, at the low of the day. A gap down open happened at 24,223, a high of 24,269, no recovery throughout the session, and the session printed the low. Six straight lower closes that we have seen, and the fall has started from 24,472 and now currently we are at 24,155. Minus 317 points in six sessions that we have seen. The staircase is now a trend, and it is happening, and we will see whether today also will close negative or not. The Sensex closed at 77,235, minus almost 500 points, also at its low. And the breadth for the Nifty was 10 up and 40 down. The settlement happened 195 points below the max pain. A sliding market beats a static magnet every time. 29 percent positive. 42 percent. So defence was positive, IT negative again, realty again negative. And the grade for yesterday's episode, it was a wrong, a second straight stop day. The spread entered at 140, 145, the hit happened immediately at 160, the loss was capped, but still the market drifted down and we hit that 24,150 mark. com. The two books that diverged, and that is where we are going to keep our focus on. The crowd, the clients, a fourth consecutive record naked put selling that we have seen. 97 lakh of naked put writing. 66 lakh fresh calls they bought. So clients are maximum bullish both directions. Six red days, they are facing the pain on the puts and they are shifting it lower and lower, and calls they are buying more and more and more. And the pros, or the proprietary desks, dumped the call leg. 71 lakh calls. Their first directional bearish lean of the month. All the cycle they traded volatility both sides. Yesterday they picked one side, that is the downward, and today we are going to see whether they book it or not. When the crowd shows no fear and the pros show their first sign of picking the direction, the second group is the one we lean into. So under the FIIs, the hedge keeps growing, the cash keeps buying, that is what we are seeing. 09 lakh in one day. 11 lakh long puts today. 94 lakh, a new cycle high. But in the cash market they are buying, in the stock futures they are buying. So in the cash they bought 1,652 crore yesterday, Tuesday. The DIIs bought 2,579 crore. So index options, also they bought 24,163, and that was washed out with the expiry. Four weeks, the same picture. The stock futures they are buying, index futures they are shorting, puts they are keeping as the hedge, and calls they are just barely short. So own the stock, hedge it in the insurance, that is what the trend is showing. And for today's board, what we are looking at is max pain still stands at 24,300 to 350, that is the level that I am seeing, 145 to 150 points above the spot. The magnet argues bounce for once, but we are not seeing that bounce happening towards that 24,300 to 350 zone. But call writers pressed again. 1 crore at 24,200 and 24,300 in one day. 5 lakh added, resistance present at 24,200. 21 crore. So that is the resistance you are seeing across the board, from 24,200 all the way till 24,500. 14 crore puts have been written, and between that it is thin air. So the battlefield for me, I can see, is 24,000 to 24,350, that is the zone that I am looking at. 82 and is showing a weak expiry, whereas the weekly straddle trades at 217 to 270. Front IV is just below that 10 mark, and the monthly basis is 75 positive points, so no panic in the futures we are seeing. And the Sensex, that is tomorrow's expiry, one day to go, and IV is building up. We are seeing 11 IV right now versus the Nifty's below 10. The auction premium returns. The straddle is roughly 659 points, 77,000 reference that I am looking at. The futures basis is 216. The rules never change, indicative is not the close. So the auction is going to play tomorrow once again. Till then, let's see how it happens. And the global markets. GIFT Nifty is currently trading at 24,214, plus almost 60 points. A bounce attempt open into the storm. 3 percent. 69 percent down. 88, a high of 92, and gold is bouncing again and trading around 4,357. 68. 71. So let's look at the All Cap strategy on RupeeCase as well. 55 percent. 34 percent alpha in one session. 08 since rebalance. Six red days on the index, the book is green. com has done for the All Cap strategy, you can have a look over there. And the plan for today is, after two days of stop losses, we don't change the side immediately. Smallest size we keep, and the level proves itself. So the market has been cracking down, but 24,000 is that level I am looking for. So 24,000 to 24,300 to 350 is that level I am seeing for. The bounce case is around 150 to 160 points. So I will keep my analysis centred around 24,300 to 24,250. So that is where I will keep getting some positive deltas on today. So the break case, Korea and oil, keep a watch on that. So oil is already at 92. The pros are short calls, so keep a watch over there as well. So if we see some unwinding happening on the client side, we could see that bounce happening. Until then the market is still bearish, the overall trend currently is in a bearish tone, whereas the volatility is rising, and keep a watch over there as well. So tomorrow is again Sensex expiry, and we have seen some fireworks over there. So sell the straddle on Sensex today with stop losses, and keep a watch, if the straddle keeps on rising, if it rises, get out of it once again. And if this added any help to you guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. And give it a rating or a review if you want to add something to the podcast. See you all once again tomorrow morning, on Sensex expiry. Until then, have a safe trading and a happy Wednesday, guys. Questions ## EP106, in plain words. What does EP106 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP106, Wednesday 19 Aug 2026, 10:34, in 7 chapters: Cold open: the morning korea broke; The tape: six straight lower closes; The two books that diverged: the crowd; The pros: first directional lean of the month; The FIIs: hedge growing, cash buying; The board: max pain above spot; The plan: smallest size, let the level prove itself. How did the calls in EP106 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded against the 20 Aug 2026 session. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [StrategyAllcap strategyNifty Total Market, 50 stocks, every 2 weeks](/strategies/allcap) * [Free module 1.3Indices & Benchmarks13 min read](/learn/path-1/module-1-3-indices-and-benchmarks) * [Free module 3.1The Momentum Factor11 min read](/learn/path-3/module-3-1-momentum-factor-deep-dive) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. 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