--- title: "The Crowd Rebuilt The Record, 6.08 Lakh | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Five days ago the crowd's record short put book burned in a two hundred point flush at 24,266. On Friday they rebuilt it, bigger: retail is now short 6." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-17" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP104 # The crowd rebuilt the record 6.08 lakh naked puts at the cheapest vol of the month, max pain holds 24,400 a fourth day, the machine rotates fresh Crowd naked put book at a record 6.08 lakh with 1.22 lakh added Friday * **8:39**listen * **2/5**graded at settlement * **Mon 17 Aug 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The crowd rebuilt the record EP104, 17 Aug, 8:39 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:39 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 2/5 at settlement. **2/5**40% **The call.** Rebalance Day The Crowd Rebuilt The Record 6.08 L Naked Puts +1.22 L On Friday At The Cheapest Premium Of The Month Pros Third Loop Long 1.37 L Calls 0.6 L Puts Vol Arc 10 To 12.2 To 9.9 To 9.4 To Almost 8 Straddle 168 Decay 20 To 30 Left FII 4.97 L Puts Short 1.77 L Fut Record Cash +508 Cr Options +5,589 Cr DII +356 Cr Chain Converging On 24,400 Support 24,300 1.02 Cr Base 24,000 1.14 Cr PCR 0.884 Plan Buy Dips 24,300 Stop Below 24,250 Reclaim 24,400 For 24,500 Watch Any Straddle Spike * **1**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **3**Miss Graded the next trading day, 18 Aug 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's noteGraded Tue 18 Aug against the Mon close 24,287. Buy on dips went wrong, the dip sliced through to 24,227 and the fifth straight lower close printed. What worked was the risk framework, the 24,300 stop and exit rule fired exactly where they should, and the flagged straddle spike arrived with IV jumping almost 25 percent in a session. Direction wrong, vol right. Two out of five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[August 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-08/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 6 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **06**The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spikeBuy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days 2. **06**The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spikeBuy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days 3. **06**The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spikeBuy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days 4. **06**The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spikeBuy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days 5. **06**The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spikeBuy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days 6. **06**The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spikeBuy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days Cold open: the crowd rebuilt the record **6.08**Day high and record **1.22**Added almost Today is Monday, GIFT Nifty is showing a flat to positive opening, and the crowd, the retail put book, is at a five day high and a record 6.08 lakh naked puts sold. A new record. And they added almost 1.22 lakh on Friday at the cheapest premium available all Read the chapter The tape: the magnet did its work **24,366**Nifty closed Friday **0.12 percent**Closed Friday **24,326**High and low **24,400**Exactly between Nifty closed Friday at 24,366, just 0.12 percent negative. The high and low was 24,326 to 24,431, exactly between that 24,400 magnet and the 24,300 low. So the grading for Friday's episode is 4 on 5. Both indices got a late cash hop as expected on a non expiry Read the chapter The pros: the third loop **1.37**Have now added **12.2**Been falling The pros flipped up. They have now added around 1.37 lakh calls and are holding around 0.6 lakh puts, so they are holding both calls and puts when volatility is low. This is the third loop they are running, buy the cheap volatility, sell it once the spike Read the chapter The institutions: both sides bought **4.97**Have bought in, holding **2.77**Futures short, and short **508 crore**Cash market they bought **5,589**Days they bought The FIIs have hit the max puts they have bought in, holding 4.97 lakh puts. Along with that they are 1.77 lakh futures short, and short 2.77 lakh calls. In the cash market they bought 508 crore, two of the three days they bought, and 5,589 crore into index Read the chapter The chain: everything converging on 24,400 **24 lakh**Crore, almost **1.14**Maximum support **24,200**Market going below **81 lakh**One crore mark The option chain is stable. 24,400 is still the magnet, so it should be at the centre of any trade. 24,300 has 1.02 crore, almost 24 lakh puts got added on Friday. 24,000 is the base with the maximum support, 1.14 crore puts written, though I do not see the Read the chapter The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spike **1.14**Base case **24,300**Buy dips toward **24,250**Zone, stop below **24,100**If breaks Buy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days, along with the insurance they are buying, and the DIIs are absorbing. 24,300 is the support, 24,000 the base case with 1.14 crore puts. So buy dips toward Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the crowd rebuilt the record Today is Monday, GIFT Nifty is showing a flat to positive opening, and the crowd, the retail put book, is at a five day high and a record 6.08 lakh naked puts sold. A new record. And they added almost 1.22 lakh on Friday at the cheapest premium available all month, when volatility is below that 10 mark. Everyone else is buying, and they are selling puts. That is what today's episode is all about. ### *02*The tape: the magnet did its work Nifty closed Friday at 24,366, just 0.12 percent negative. The high and low was 24,326 to 24,431, exactly between that 24,400 magnet and the 24,300 low. So the grading for Friday's episode is 4 on 5. Both indices got a late cash hop as expected on a non expiry day, where every cash session is showing some long positive bounce happening on the close. ### *03*The pros: the third loop The pros flipped up. They have now added around 1.37 lakh calls and are holding around 0.6 lakh puts, so they are holding both calls and puts when volatility is low. This is the third loop they are running, buy the cheap volatility, sell it once the spike happens, and buy it back again when it is cheap. Now you understand why they have gone long volatility today, because the volatility arc has been falling, from 10 to 12.2 to 9.9 to 9.4 to almost 8. That is the lowest we have seen. The Tuesday straddle is trading at 168, last close was around 140, so another 20 to 30 points of decay is left. Expiry movement has never been cheaper this cycle, one day before expiry. ### *04*The institutions: both sides bought The FIIs have hit the max puts they have bought in, holding 4.97 lakh puts. Along with that they are 1.77 lakh futures short, and short 2.77 lakh calls. In the cash market they bought 508 crore, two of the three days they bought, and 5,589 crore into index options. The DIIs also bought 356 crore, so both bought in. The FIIs are maintaining their hedge, long the stocks, short the index futures at a record high of 1.77 lakh, short calls and long puts. Keep an eye on that, because that is where the selling is coming from. And the retail crowd is trapped again with a record 6.08 lakh naked puts short, having sold almost 1.22 lakh on Friday. Five days after that record, and if the market breaks 24,300, they are cooked. ### *05*The chain: everything converging on 24,400 The option chain is stable. 24,400 is still the magnet, so it should be at the centre of any trade. 24,300 has 1.02 crore, almost 24 lakh puts got added on Friday. 24,000 is the base with the maximum support, 1.14 crore puts written, though I do not see the market going below 24,200. The 24,400 calls are the first resistance, just below the one crore mark at 81 lakh. 25,000 calls saw some covering but still hold around 1.13 crore. So resistance 24,400, support 24,300, PCR at 0.884, and the basis is around 80 points from weekly to monthly futures. Support is stacking up, resistance is just at the money, everything is converging on 24,400. And today is rebalance day on the RupeeCase All Cap, 50 stocks, two percent each, a CAGR of roughly 47 percent over five years. ### *06*The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spike Buy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of three days, along with the insurance they are buying, and the DIIs are absorbing. 24,300 is the support, 24,000 the base case with 1.14 crore puts. So buy dips toward the 24,300 zone, stop below 24,250. If 24,250 breaks then 24,100 and 24,000 can also get hit. Upside, reclaim 24,400 on a closing basis and the magnet can shift to 24,500 first. Rule number one today, volatility is extremely cheap, so if you are selling an intraday straddle keep a watch on any straddle spike. If the spike starts, get out immediately, do not wait for the premium to decay till 3:15. Globally, GIFT is negative 30 points opening around 24,400, the Nikkei at a record 68,739, Hong Kong up 1.35, gold at a record 4,400, Brent 88.84, the rupee 95.43. The sleeper to watch is Japanese yields, the 10 year rising to 2.93. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Crowd naked put book at a record 6.08 lakh with 1.22 lakh added Friday * *02*They sold it at the cheapest premium available all month vol below 10 * *03*Nifty closed 24,366 down 0.12 percent inside the 24,326 to 24,431 range * *04*The 24,400 magnet and 24,300 low framed the whole session * *05*Pros added about 1.37 lakh calls holding 0.6 lakh puts long vol both legs * *06*Third loop buy cheap vol sell the spike buy it back cheap again * *07*Vol arc falling 10 to 12.2 to 9.9 to 9.4 to almost 8 the lowest of the cycle * *08*Tuesday straddle 168 with another 20 to 30 points of decay left * *09*FII holding 4.97 lakh puts the max of the month * *10*FII short 1.77 lakh index futures a record high plus 2.77 lakh short calls * *11*FII bought 508 crore cash and 5,589 crore into index options DII added 356 crore * *12*24,400 magnet 24,300 support with 1.02 crore and 24 lakh added Friday * *13*24,000 base holds 1.14 crore puts the maximum support on the board * *14*24,400 calls first resistance at 81 lakh 25,000 calls still 1.13 crore * *15*PCR 0.884 basis about 80 points weekly to monthly futures * *16*Rebalance day on the All Cap 50 stocks 2 percent each CAGR roughly 47 percent * *17*Plan buy dips to 24,300 stop below 24,250 then 24,100 and 24,000 open up * *18*Reclaim 24,400 on a close and the magnet can shift to 24,500 * *19*Nikkei record 68,739 gold record 4,400 Brent 88.84 rupee 95.43 * *20*Sleeper to watch Japanese 10 year yields rising to 2.93 Show all 20 05In his words Everyone else is buying, and they are selling puts. This is the third loop they are doing. Expiry movement has never been cheaper this cycle. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 879 words, about 4 min to read A very good morning, guys. Today is Monday. 08 lakh naked puts they have sold. So, a new record. 22 lakh on Friday at the cheapest premium available all this month, when volatility is below that 10 mark. Everyone else is buying, and they are selling puts. And that is what today's episode is all about. So this is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 104. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. So let's go. So let's look at what happened on Friday. 12 percent negative. The high and low for Nifty was 24,326 to 24,431, exactly between that magnet of 24,400 and the low of 24,300. com and check it out. Both indices got a late cash hop on, as expected on a non expiry day, wherein every cash session is showing us some long positive bounce happening on every closing. Now let's look at the pros, the loop that happened. On the pros, they flipped up. So what does that mean? 6 lakh puts. So it means they are holding both calls and puts when the volatility is low. So this is the third loop they are doing, where they buy the cheap volatility, sell it once the spike happens, and again buy it back when the volatility is cheap. 4 to almost 8. So that is the lowest that we have seen. The Tuesday straddle is trading at 168. Last time we saw the closing happening around 140, so another 20 to 30 points of decay is left for today. Expiry movement has never been cheaper this cycle, one day before expiry. You can see it. And what are the FIIs doing? 97 lakh puts they are holding. 77 lakh futures short. 77 lakh short. And in the cash market they bought 508 crore, so two of the three days they bought it, and 5,589 crore into index options. The DIIs also bought 356 crore. So both FIIs and DIIs bought in. 77 lakh, and short calls and long puts. Keep an eye on that, because that is where the selling is coming from. And the retail, the crowd, is trapped again. 08 lakh naked puts short. 22 lakh puts on Friday. So five days after that record we are seeing this, and if the market breaks that 24,300, they are cooked. So keep a watch on the record flow of retail as well. And the option chain. The option chain is stable. 24,400 is still the magnet, which means that 24,400 should be still at the centre of any trade. 02 crore, almost 24 lakh puts got added on Friday. 14 crore puts that have been written. And 24,400 calls, if you look at it, has the first resistance, which is just below that one crore mark, at 81 lakh. 13 crore calls that have been written. 884. The basis is around 80 points from weekly to monthly futures. So support is stacking up, resistance is just at the money, everything is converging on 24,400. And today is the rebalance day on the RupeeCase All Cap as well. Last week we saw a nice pullback on the All Cap strategy, wherein the CAGR for it for the last five years is roughly around 47 percent. 50 stocks, two percent each, from the broader market, that is what the portfolio looks like. com and check it out. Some global data right now. GIFT Nifty is negative 30 points, opening around 24,400. The Nikkei is at a record 68,739. 35 percent. 17 percent. Gold is at its new record high of 4,400 and is trading strong. 84. 43. So a quite firm open into the magnet. 6 percent bounce that we have seen over there. Keep a watch on that. So the plan is pretty simple, guys. Buy on dips continues, unchanged for the whole month. FII cash buying has intensified, two of the three days they are buying, along with insurance they are buying, and the DIIs are absorbing. 14 crore puts. So buy on dips towards that 24,300 buy zone, stop below 24,250. That is your stop loss that should be taken out. If 24,250 breaks, then I think 24,100 and 24,000 can also get hit, so keep a watch on 24,250. Upside, reclaim 24,400 on a closing basis and we could see the magnet shifting to 24,500 first. So buy the dips, respect that 24,300 mark, and let the magnet do its work. Rule number one, guys. Today the volatility is extremely cheap, so if you are selling an intraday straddle, keep a watch on any straddle spike that is happening. If the spike starts to happen, get out of it immediately. Do not wait for the premiums to decay till 3:15. I do not know how the decay should work today. I think after today's morning gap up in the volatility, we should see some subsiding happening, and the straddle closing around 140 levels at today's close. So let's see it. But this was The Tanmay Edge, guys. You listened to episode 104. If you liked the episode, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. See you all tomorrow once again. Until then, have a happy Monday, and see you on tomorrow's expiry. Questions ## EP104, in plain words. What does EP104 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP104, Monday 17 Aug 2026, 8:39, in 6 chapters: Cold open: the crowd rebuilt the record; The tape: the magnet did its work; The pros: the third loop; The institutions: both sides bought; The chain: everything converging on 24,400; The plan: buy dips, watch the straddle spike. How did the calls in EP104 score?Grade 2/5 (40 percent): 1 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 3 miss. Graded the next trading day, 18 Aug 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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