--- title: "Expiry Day Special: One Box, Three Clocks | The Tanmay Edge" description: "One hundred episodes. One hundred trading mornings of reading the actual exchange data, taking a view on record, and grading it in public the next day." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-11" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP100 # Expiry day special: one box, three clocks 24,500 fortress vs 24,600 double Wall, straddle 146 to 80 by 3:15, buy dips with call spreads Episode 100 milestone 100 mornings of levels graded in public the next day * **11:32**listen * **3/5**graded at settlement * **Tue 11 Aug 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Expiry day special: one box, three clocks EP100, 11 Aug, 11:32 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes11:32 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 3/5 at settlement. **3/5**60% **The call.** Episode 100 Milestone On Weekly Expiry The 100 Point Box 24,500 Fortress 1.12 Cr Puts +39 L vs 24,600 Double Wall 1.46 Cr Calls 1.09 Cr Puts Max Pain 24,600 Straddle 146 PCR 0.73 To 0.85 Front IV Exploded 22 Percent Curve Inverted Theta Clock 146 To 80 By 3:15 Pro Long Vol 2.14 L Calls 0.72 L Puts FII 4 To 1 Hedged Long Cash +1,975 Cr Options +3,925 Cr DII First Sell 1,290 Cr Crowd Short 5.5 L Naked Puts Plan Buy Dips Stop Close Below 24,500 Call Spreads Not Naked Flat By 3:15 Do Not Trade The Indicative Print All Cap 596 Percent Net CAGR 47.43 * **2**Hit * **2**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 12 Aug 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's noteGraded Wed 12 Aug against the Tue expiry settlement 24,471. The trick question day. The 24,500 to 24,600 box broke at the floor inside the first 30 minutes and the pin never happened, settlement printed 128 points below the 24,600 max pain, the second pin failure in three expiries. What paid was the process, the oil conditional called the break before it happened, the below the fortress air to 24,400 mapped the 24,429 low to the point, the stop fired where it should, and the defined risk call spread capped the damage at 34 points while naked structures burned. Direction and pin missed, risk framework and conditionals hit. Three out of five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[August 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-08/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**The plan: spread the calls, leave theThe bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is 2. **07**The plan: spread the calls, leave theThe bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is 3. **07**The plan: spread the calls, leave theThe bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is 4. **07**The plan: spread the calls, leave theThe bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is 5. **07**The plan: spread the calls, leave theThe bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is 6. **07**The plan: spread the calls, leave theThe bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is 7. **07**The plan: spread the calls, leave theThe bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is Cold open: one hundred mornings, one hundred point box **24,500**Crore put support **24,600**Crore call resistance Today is extremely special, the 100th episode. 100 trading mornings, 100 data packs, 100 sets of levels graded in public the very next day, every single time. And today is the weekly expiry as well, where the options board has squeezed into a 100 point box. Read the chapter The milestone: the scorecard is the product **596 percent**Cap strategy, sits **49 percent**Inception against the benchmark's **47.43 percent**Benchmark's percent, CAGR When this started the idea was simple. Read the actual exchange data that gets published, take a view, put it on record, and grade it the next morning against the settlement. No hindsight, no deleting bad calls. 100 episodes later that scorecard is the Read the chapter The tape: two flips in two days is a pin, not a trend **24,583**Monday Nifty closed **13 points**Monday Nifty closed **24,511**Opened dipped to almost **24,550**Zone this podcast marked Monday Nifty closed 24,583, up 13 points. It opened 24,581, dipped to almost 24,511 in the first hour, and the dip got bought exactly in the zone this podcast marked, 24,550 to 24,500. It then spent the whole day pressed under 24,600, high 24,620, and could Read the chapter The board: fortress at 24,500, double Wall at 24,600 **24,600**Today's expiry sits **10 lakh**Monday against **0.73**PCR jumping **1.12**Puts now stack Max pain for today's expiry sits at 24,600 and we closed 16 points below it. Put writers added two crore contracts on Monday against just 10 lakh fresh calls, the PCR jumping from 0.73 to 0.85, the bullish side. At 24,500 the puts now stack 1.12 crore, 39 lakh Read the chapter The masterclass: three clocks **10 percent**Weekly priced today **22 percent**Front week IV exploded **12.2**One session **10.65 percent**Two, forward volatility, roughly Clock one, implied volatility. Friday the weekly priced today under 10 percent while the back weeks sat near 11, the boring expiry consensus. Episode 99 said do not join that trade. On Monday front week IV exploded 22 percent in one session, 10 to 12.2, and Read the chapter Positioning: long vol, hedged long, still naked **2.14**Proprietary traders are long **0.72**Lakh calls **4.3**Put book **2 lakh**Week's high, short The proprietary traders are long 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts, both sides, long volatility. They trimmed a little on Monday, booking the IV spike, not leaving the trade. The FIIs pushed their put book to 4.3 lakh contracts, the week's high, short 2 lakh Read the chapter The plan: spread the calls, leave the auction alone **24,500**Dips with close below **24,650**Call and sell **24,600**Break up through **24,700**Crore trapped calls cover The bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is expiry, execution matters more than direction, and naked longs bleed to nothing by 3:15. The tool is the call spread, buy the 24,500 call and sell the Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: one hundred mornings, one hundred point box Today is extremely special, the 100th episode. 100 trading mornings, 100 data packs, 100 sets of levels graded in public the very next day, every single time. And today is the weekly expiry as well, where the options board has squeezed into a 100 point box. 1.12 crore put support at 24,500. 1.46 crore call resistance at 24,600. Max pain sitting exactly in between, and a straddle that costs just 146 rupees. ### *02*The milestone: the scorecard is the product When this started the idea was simple. Read the actual exchange data that gets published, take a view, put it on record, and grade it the next morning against the settlement. No hindsight, no deleting bad calls. 100 episodes later that scorecard is the product, and it is on rupeecase.com. And the system behind this podcast, the RupeeCase All Cap strategy, sits at 596 percent net return since inception against the benchmark's 49 percent, a CAGR of 47.43 percent. That gap is not prediction, it is process. Thank you for those hundred mornings. Now let's earn the hundred and first. ### *03*The tape: two flips in two days is a pin, not a trend Monday Nifty closed 24,583, up 13 points. It opened 24,581, dipped to almost 24,511 in the first hour, and the dip got bought exactly in the zone this podcast marked, 24,550 to 24,500. It then spent the whole day pressed under 24,600, high 24,620, and could not close above it. Sensex added 43 at 78,542, the fear gauge up 1.4 percent to 12.33. The rotation flipped a second time in two sessions. Friday's wreckage led, Titan up 3.1, Bajaj Finance 1.9, Finserv 1.2, while Friday's heroes faded, State Bank down 2.2 and TCS down 0.8. PSU banks down 1.7, defence down 1. Two flips in two days is not a trend, that is money squaring itself under a pin. Breadth agreed, 25 up 23 down. ### *04*The board: fortress at 24,500, double Wall at 24,600 Max pain for today's expiry sits at 24,600 and we closed 16 points below it. Put writers added two crore contracts on Monday against just 10 lakh fresh calls, the PCR jumping from 0.73 to 0.85, the bullish side. At 24,500 the puts now stack 1.12 crore, 39 lakh added in one day, the biggest support on the board. At 24,600 sit 1.46 crore calls and almost 1.09 crore puts, both armies on the same strike. Above it, 1.09 crore calls at 24,700, 1.18 at 24,900, 1.29 at 25,000. Below the fortress, air until 24,400. The market has drawn a box of 24,500 to 24,600, and it expires today. ### *05*The masterclass: three clocks Clock one, implied volatility. Friday the weekly priced today under 10 percent while the back weeks sat near 11, the boring expiry consensus. Episode 99 said do not join that trade. On Monday front week IV exploded 22 percent in one session, 10 to 12.2, and the curve inverted, today now costs more than next month. Whoever sold volatility at Friday's prices financed that lesson. Clock two, forward volatility, roughly 10.65 percent between expiry one and two and 11 to the monthly, so the inversion is only in the front, the market fears today, not August. Clock three, the theta clock. The straddle closed around 146, opens around 120 to 125 on overnight decay, melts another 30 to 40 through the day, and by 3:15 should trade near 80 if we stay in the box. Then the last 15 minutes, the closing auction window, where the wildness now lives and volatility can come back from the dead in one print. The map in one line, decay from 9:15 to 3:15, danger from 3:15 to 3:30. ### *06*Positioning: long vol, hedged long, still naked The proprietary traders are long 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts, both sides, long volatility. They trimmed a little on Monday, booking the IV spike, not leaving the trade. The FIIs pushed their put book to 4.3 lakh contracts, the week's high, short 2 lakh calls, short 1.5 lakh index futures against 6.2 lakh long stock futures, a four to one hedged long. And in cash the roles reversed. FIIs bought 1975 crore on Monday, their biggest buy in weeks, plus 3925 crore into index options, while the DIIs sold 1290 crore, their first sell after absorbing 7000 crore plus all week. The FIIs are buying India and buying the insurance on it the same day. The crowd is still short 5.5 lakh puts naked, having covered just 14,000 contracts into expiry morning. ### *07*The plan: spread the calls, leave the auction alone The bias has not changed, buy on dips with a close below 24,500 as the stop for everything. But today is expiry, execution matters more than direction, and naked longs bleed to nothing by 3:15. The tool is the call spread, buy the 24,500 call and sell the 24,650 against it, or buy the 24,550 and sell the 24,700, one by two or two by three, so the writers' decay pays for the position all day. Pin at 24,600 and the spread finishes fat. Break up through 24,600 on a close and the 1.46 crore trapped calls cover, 24,700 comes first, the spread maxes out. Discipline, if 24,700 breaks and holds, cut the extra short leg without argument. Be flat everything before 3:15, the last 15 minutes belong to the auction, and rule number one from the last hundred episodes stands, do not trade the indicative print. Oil is the wild card, Brent 87.90 up almost 5 percent in two sessions, gold at a fresh record 4426, and if oil touches 90 the 24,500 fortress can break. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Episode 100 milestone 100 mornings of levels graded in public the next day * *02*All Cap strategy 596 percent net since inception vs benchmark 49 CAGR 47.43 * *03*The board squeezed into a 100 point box 24,500 to 24,600 expiring today * *04*Put support 1.12 crore at 24,500 with 39 lakh added in one day * *05*Call resistance 1.46 crore at 24,600 with 1.09 crore puts on the same strike * *06*Max pain 24,600 closed 16 points below it straddle just 146 * *07*Put writers added 2 crore contracts vs 10 lakh calls PCR 0.73 to 0.85 * *08*Above the wall 1.09 crore calls at 24,700 1.18 at 24,900 1.29 at 25,000 * *09*Monday dip to 24,511 bought exactly in the 24,550 to 24,500 zone called * *10*Front week IV exploded 22 percent in a session 10 to 12.2 the curve inverted * *11*Forward vol 10.65 then 11 percent the fear is only in the front week * *12*Theta clock 146 straddle opens 120 to 125 melts to about 80 by 3:15 * *13*Pros long 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts long vol booking the IV spike * *14*FII put book 4.3 lakh the weeks high 4 to 1 hedged long via 6.2 lakh stock futures * *15*FII cash bought 1975 crore biggest in weeks plus 3925 crore index options * *16*DII sold 1290 crore first sell after absorbing 7000 crore plus all week * *17*Crowd still short 5.5 lakh naked puts covered only 14,000 into expiry * *18*Brent 87.90 up 5 percent in two sessions gold record 4426 oil the wild card * *19*Plan buy dips stop close below 24,500 call spreads 24,500/24,650 or 24,550/24,700 * *20*Flat by 3:15 the last 15 minutes belong to the auction do not trade the indicative print Show all 20 05In his words 100 trading mornings, 100 data packs, 100 sets of levels graded in public the very next day, every single time. No hindsight, no deleting bad calls. 100 episodes later, that scorecard is the product. That gap is not prediction, it is a process. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,317 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. Today is extremely special, as we are recording this 100th episode. 100 trading mornings, 100 data packs, 100 sets of levels graded in public the very next day, every single time. And it has been difficult for me to get to it, but today we are marking the 100th episode. And today is the weekly expiry as well, where the options board has squeezed into a 100 point box. 12 crore put support at 24,500. 46 crore call resistance at 24,600. Max pain sitting exactly in between, and a straddle that costs just 146 rupees. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 100. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So before the numbers, guys, 30 seconds from me to you. When this started, the idea was simple. Read the actual exchange data that gets published, take a view, put it on record, and grade it the next morning against the settlement. No hindsight, no deleting bad calls. com. 43 percent. That gap is not prediction, it is a process that we have been following for so many years. Thank you for those hundred mornings. Now let's earn the hundred and first. So Monday, Nifty closed at 24,583, up 13 points. It opened at 24,581, dipped to almost 24,511 in the first hour, and the dip got bought exactly in the zone this podcast marked, 24,550 to 24,500. It then spent the whole day pressed under 24,600, a high of 24,620, and could not close above it. The Sensex added 43 points at 78,542. 33. And the rotation flipped for a second time in two sessions. 2 percent. 8 percent. Capital market names, realty, private banks all green. 7 percent, defence down one percent. So two flips in two days. It is not a trend, guys, that is money squaring itself under a pin. Breadth said the same thing, 25 up and 23 down on the Nifty. Which brings us to Friday's call. Episode 99 said buy the dip towards 24,550, even 24,500, stop on a close below 24,500, do not sell the volatility. The dip came at 24,500 and got bought to the point. The stop never came close. The upside trigger at 24,600 never fired. So I will take a 4 on 5 on episode 99. com. Now the board, because today is what the entire story is all about. Max pain for today's expiry is sitting at 24,600, that is the expected expiry that should happen at the pin, and we closed 16 points below it on Monday. Put writers added two crore contracts against just 10 lakh fresh calls. 85, that is a bit bullish. 12 crore, and 39 lakh of them added in one day. So 24,500 becomes the biggest support on the board. 09 crore puts, both armies on the same strike. 29 at 25,000. Below the fortress, air until 24,400. The market has drawn a box of around 24,500 to 24,600, and it expires today. Now the volatility masterclass I promised, because this is the special segment for episode 100, and it has three clocks in it. Remember it. Clock one, implied volatility. On Friday the weekly option priced today at under 10 percent while the back weeks sat at almost 11 percent. The market called this expiry boring. Episode 99 said do not join that trade, do not sell volatility. 2. The curve inverted. Today now costs more than the next month. The boring expiry consensus is dead, and whoever sold volatility at Friday's prices financed that lesson. Clock two, forward volatility. 65 percent between expiry one and expiry two, 11 percent between the next and the monthly. So the inversion is only in the front. Translation, the market fears today, especially the weekly expiry, not the August monthly expiries. And the third one, write this one down, guys, the theta clock. The straddle closed around 146, expected to open around 120 to 125, that is the overnight decay taken out at the bell. Through the day expect another 30 to 40 points to melt out, and by 3:15 the straddle should be trading somewhere around 80 bucks, like we saw last week, if we stay inside the box. And then comes the last 15 minutes, the closing auction window, the place where these last two weeks taught us the wildness now lives. That is where the volatility can come back from the dead in one print. So the map of the day in one line. Decay from 9:15 to 3:15, danger from 3:15 to 3:30. And who is holding what into this? I read the pros, or proprietary traders, then the FIIs, and then the retail crowd. 72 lakh puts, both sides, long volatility. They trimmed a little on Monday, that is them booking the IV spike, not leaving the trade. 2 lakh long stock futures. Remember this, they are long the stock futures and short on the index, so a four to one hedged long. And in cash the roles reversed for the week. FIIs bought 1,975 crore on Monday, their biggest buy in weeks, plus 3,925 crore into index options. The DIIs sold 1,290 crore in cash, their first sell after absorbing 7,000 crore plus all week. The FIIs are buying India and buying the insurance on it, on the same day. 5 lakh puts, naked. 67 lakh as of yesterday, into the expiry morning. And a quick word on the global markets. GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,605 as I record, basically flat, a quiet open. 3 percent. Asia is mixed and calm. The two live wires are elsewhere. 90, up almost 5 percent in two sessions, and gold printed a fresh all time record this morning at 4,426 dollars. 30. Oil at 88 is the wild card under this market, and keep a watch on it, because if oil rallies and we touch 90 dollars, we could see 24,500 getting broken as well. So here is the plan for episode 100, guys, and the bias has not changed. Buy on dips, with a close below 24,500 as the stop and exit for everything. But today is expiry, so execution matters more than the direction. Naked longs will bleed to nothing by 3:15, like we saw last week. Today the tool is the call spread, guys, not the naked option. Buy the 24,500 call and sell the 24,650 against it, or buy the 24,550 and sell the 24,700 call against it. The ratio can be one by two or two by three. You are buying the strikes below the resistance and selling the strikes the call writers own, so their decay pays for your position all day. If we pin at 24,600 the spread finishes fat and we get the max out of it, while the straddle buyers bleed. 46 crore trapped calls cover and 24,700 comes first, your spread maxes out. One discipline point, guys. The extra short leg is a bet on the resistance holding. If 24,700 breaks and holds, cut the extra leg without argument. And be flat everything before 3:15, because the last 15 minutes belong to the auction and we do not want to bet on it. And rule number one from the last hundred episodes stands, do not trade the indicative print. Have a great expiry, guys. One box, one support at 24,500, one double wall resistance at 24,600, one theta clock running till 3:15. Buy the dips, spread the calls, respect the stop, leave the auction alone. This was The Tanmay Edge, episode 100. If the podcast has ever paid you a single good trade, today is the day to share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. Give it a rating and review, and tell what the next 100 shows should look like. See you all tomorrow, once again, on episode 101. Questions ## EP100, in plain words. What does EP100 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP100, Tuesday 11 Aug 2026, 11:32, in 7 chapters: Cold open: one hundred mornings, one hundred point box; The milestone: the scorecard is the product; The tape: two flips in two days is a pin, not a trend; The board: fortress at 24,500, double Wall at 24,600; The masterclass: three clocks; Positioning: long vol, hedged long, still naked; The plan: spread the calls, leave the auction alone. How did the calls in EP100 score?Grade 3/5 (60 percent): 2 hit, 2 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 12 Aug 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [StrategyDynamic Asset Allocator strategyNifty Total Market plus debt and gold, 52 stocks, every 3 weeks](/strategies/dynamic-asset-allocator) * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [Free module 1.3Indices & Benchmarks13 min read](/learn/path-1/module-1-3-indices-and-benchmarks) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. 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