--- title: "The Close Was A Lie. The Futures Told The | The Tanmay Edge" description: "The number on your screen says the Nifty closed yesterday at 24,774, up 1.6 percent. That number is a mirage. The real market closed almost 190 points lower" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-04" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP95 # The close was a lie. The futures told the truth. Now it is expiry Published Nifty close 24,774 up 1.6 percent was a phantom the real close near 24,586 * **10:05**listen * **4.5/5**graded at settlement * **Tue 4 Aug 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The close was a lie. The futures told the truth. Now it is expiry EP95, 4 Aug, 10:05 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:05 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4.5/5 at settlement. **4.5/5**90% **The call.** The Glitch And The Pin Real Close 24,586 Not The 24,774 Phantom Four Proofs Tape Futures Minus 188 Sensex Constituents Weekly Expiry On The Real Level Max Pain 24,550 To 600 Call Wall 24,600 1.51 Cr PCR 1.57 Put Floor 24,200 24,000 FII Covered 22k Fut Shorts 56k Short Calls Cash +922 DII +1,571 Base Case Pin 24,550 To 600 Watch The 3:30 Auction On Settlement Day RBI Tomorrow Edu Trust Futures And Stocks Never The Headline * **4**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded against the 5 Aug 2026 session; on the public trail from 10 Aug 2026. The grader's noteGraded Tue 4 Aug EOD. The auction misfired a second day exactly as warned, this time on weekly expiry, settlement 24,614.90 spiking about 115 points above the 24,500 max pain where the real tape pinned near 24,466 to 24516, so straddle sellers were run over by the print. The same morning warning to watch the 3:30 settlement and keep positions light was the save. Vol woke, VIX 11.76 to 12.19. Four and a half. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[August 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-08/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 6 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **06**The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at theAt the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest 2. **06**The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at theAt the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest 3. **06**The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at theAt the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest 4. **06**The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at theAt the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest 5. **06**The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at theAt the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest 6. **06**The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at theAt the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest Cold open: the number on your screen is a mirage **24,774**Says Nifty closed **390 points**Nifty closed **190 points**Real market closed almost **24,586**Almost points lower A number on your screen says Nifty closed at 24,774, up 390 points, its best day in weeks. That number is a mirage. The real market closed almost 190 points lower, near 24,586, because yesterday was day one of the new single closing auction and on the very Read the chapter Four checks: proving the phantom print **24,580**Traded tight band **24,586**Expiry future closed **188 points**Expiry future closed full **24,774**Full points below One, the tape. The Nifty traded a tight band around 24,580 the entire session, the whole one and a half percent appeared in a single vertical candle at the bell, the high of the day was the close. Two, the futures. The expiry future closed 24,586, a full 188 Read the chapter The real tape: rotation, not a ramp **11.98**Gauge ticked The truth is 24,586, up about 0.83 percent, a good day wearing a fancy dress costume. The real story was rotation. Technology, the sector that dragged all last week, led, the IT index up 3 percent, TCS and Infosys both up three and a half as money rotated from Read the chapter Positioning: booked bets and constructive covering **22,000**Covering, buying back another **56,000**Futures and, the tell **922 crore**Bought stocks again **1571 crore**Domestics at almost Friday the pros were long volatility, both calls and puts, into the event. On the move they cashed part of it, cut the long puts hard and kept the long calls, tilting one side instead of two. The FIIs kept covering, buying back another 22,000 short futures Read the chapter The lesson: trust the futures and the stocks, never the headline **188 points**Seconds dragged the index **24,586**Grade your levels off **24,774**Levels off not From yesterday the exchange stopped averaging the last half hour and started holding a single auction close. The intent is fairer, but on day one the book was thin, there was no price band to catch a runaway, and a burst of orders in the final seconds dragged Read the chapter The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at the bell **24,586**Real level **24,550**Zone, max pain **24,200**Floor is stacked **1.57**PCR supportive At the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest resistance of the week by a mile is the 24,600 call, a mountain of open interest. Below, the put floor is stacked at 24,200 and 24,000, PCR supportive at 1.57. Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the number on your screen is a mirage A number on your screen says Nifty closed at 24,774, up 390 points, its best day in weeks. That number is a mirage. The real market closed almost 190 points lower, near 24,586, because yesterday was day one of the new single closing auction and on the very first day it misfired. A phantom spike printed in the last 60 seconds that the futures never believed, the Sensex never showed, and the stocks themselves never traded at. Today that ghost gets reset at the open, futures pointing to a gap down to around 24,630, straight back to reality. And the reality is a pin, because today is a weekly expiry and the real market is sitting right on top of max pain. The real question is whether the auction misfires again at 3:30, on the one day it must not, expiry settlement. ### *02*Four checks: proving the phantom print One, the tape. The Nifty traded a tight band around 24,580 the entire session, the whole one and a half percent appeared in a single vertical candle at the bell, the high of the day was the close. Two, the futures. The expiry future closed 24,586, a full 188 points below the 24,774 spot print, and one day before expiry a future cannot sit 188 under the index unless the index is wrong. Three, the Sensex, a different exchange with a normal close, finished up 0.7 percent and made its high at the open. 0.7 on the Sensex means about 0.8 on the Nifty, not 1.6. Four, the clincher, the stocks. Add up every Nifty stock at its official closing price and the index lands near 24,580, not 24,774. The headline does not match its own members. ### *03*The real tape: rotation, not a ramp The truth is 24,586, up about 0.83 percent, a good day wearing a fancy dress costume. The real story was rotation. Technology, the sector that dragged all last week, led, the IT index up 3 percent, TCS and Infosys both up three and a half as money rotated from the Bajaj twins into beaten down software. Bajaj Finance went flat. A healthy market rotates, it does not run on a single horse. Breadth was strong, 44 of the Nifty 50 higher. The one tell, the fear gauge ticked up to 11.98, its first uptick in days, as the tape itself smelled something odd in that closing price. ### *04*Positioning: booked bets and constructive covering Friday the pros were long volatility, both calls and puts, into the event. On the move they cashed part of it, cut the long puts hard and kept the long calls, tilting one side instead of two. The FIIs kept covering, buying back another 22,000 short futures and, the tell, 56,000 short calls, taking their foot off the very resistance they had been defending. They bought stocks again, 922 crore, alongside the domestics at almost 1571 crore, the second straight day both were buyers. Positioning is turning less defensive and nobody is pressing a short into the expiry. ### *05*The lesson: trust the futures and the stocks, never the headline From yesterday the exchange stopped averaging the last half hour and started holding a single auction close. The intent is fairer, but on day one the book was thin, there was no price band to catch a runaway, and a burst of orders in the final seconds dragged the index 188 points from where it actually traded. The durable rule, when an index headline does not agree with its own future and its own stocks, trust the futures and the stocks, never the headline. The index is a calculated number, it can misprint. A thousand real trades in the future and 50 constituents cannot all be wrong at once. Grade your levels off 24,586, not 24,774, and do not get trapped buying a breakout that never happened. ### *06*The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at the bell At the real level near 24,586 we sit inside the pin zone, max pain around 24,550 to 600. The biggest resistance of the week by a mile is the 24,600 call, a mountain of open interest. Below, the put floor is stacked at 24,200 and 24,000, PCR supportive at 1.57. Base case a pin expiry in the 24,550 to 600 zone. Above 24,600 with real buying the door opens to 24,700 and 24,750, losing 24,500 brings 24,400 then 24,200 into the picture. And the thing that matters more than any level is the close itself. Weekly options settle on the cash close, so if the auction misfires a second time at 3:30 the settlement could be distorted on exactly the strikes you trade. Keep positions light, treat the last minute as a wild card, and remember the real catalyst is tomorrow, the RBI at 10 am, consensus a hold at 5.25 percent, with the hawkish hold the only tail worth cheap protection. 04Key takeaways ## 17 things to carry into the session. * *01*Published Nifty close 24,774 up 1.6 percent was a phantom the real close near 24,586 * *02*The whole 1.5 percent appeared in one vertical candle at the bell high equals close * *03*Expiry future closed 24,586 a full 188 points below the spot print * *04*Sensex up only 0.7 percent with its high at the open not the bell * *05*Constituent check Reliance 0.86 HDFC Bank 0.65 ICICI 0.62 sums to about 24,580 * *06*Real day up about 0.83 percent a rotation day not a ramp * *07*IT index jumped 3 percent TCS and Infosys up 3.5 Bajaj Finance flat * *08*Breadth strong 44 of the Nifty 50 higher * *09*VIX ticked up to 11.98 first uptick in days the tape smelled the odd close * *10*Pros cashed the long vol bet cut puts hard kept calls * *11*FII covered 22,000 short futures and 56,000 short calls off the resistance * *12*FII cash bought 922 crore DII 1571 crore second straight day both buyers * *13*Max pain 24,550 to 600 the 24,600 call the biggest wall of the week * *14*Put floor 24,200 and 24,000 PCR supportive at 1.57 * *15*Pin base case 24,550 to 600 above 24,600 opens 24,700 losing 24,500 opens 24,400 * *16*Weekly options settle on the cash close the 3:30 auction is the wild card * *17*RBI tomorrow 10 am consensus hold 5.25 keep cheap protection for a hawkish hold Show all 17 05In his words I am going to tell you that the number is a mirage. One day before expiry a future cannot sit 188 points under the index unless the index is the one that is wrong. The headline does not match its own members. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,358 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. 6 percent, its best day in weeks. I am going to tell you that number is a mirage. The real market closed almost 190 points lower, near 24,586. Because yesterday was day one of the new single closing auction, and on the very first day it misfired. A phantom spike printed in the last 60 seconds that the futures never believed, the Sensex never showed, and the stocks themselves never traded at. Last episode I told you the first session under the new cash rule would be the noisiest, do not trust a strange close. Well, here is the strangest close of the year. Today that ghost gets reset at the open. Our futures are pointing to a gap down to around 24,630, straight back to reality. And the reality is a pin, because today is a weekly expiry and the real market is sitting right on top of max pain, under the same resistance that has capped it for a month. So the real question today is not up or down, it is whether the auction misfires again at 3:30, on the one day it must not, expiry settlement. And that is what today's episode is all about, guys. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 95. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me prove it, because it decides every level you trade this week, and I will use only official numbers, four checks. One, the tape. The Nifty traded in a tight band around 24,580 the entire session. The whole one and a half percent appeared in a single vertical candle at the bell. The high of the day was the close. Two, the futures. The Nifty future for today's expiry closed at 24,586, a full 188 points below that 24,774 spot print. One day before expiry a future cannot sit 188 points under the index unless the index is the one that is wrong. The future is the honest price, guys. 7 percent, and it made its high at the open, not at the closing bell. 6. And four, the clincher, the stocks themselves. 62. Add up every Nifty stock at its official closing price and the index lands near 24,580, not 24,774. The headline does not match its own members. 83 percent, a good day, but an ordinary one wearing a fancy dress costume, is what happened yesterday. The real story was rotation. The sector that dragged all last week, technology, was yesterday's leader. The IT index jumped 3 percent, TCS and Infosys both up three and a half, as the money that chased the Bajaj twins on Friday rotated straight into the beaten-down software names. Bajaj Finance, Friday's 8 percent star, went flat. That is a healthy market, it rotates, it does not run on a single horse. Breadth was strong, 44 of the Nifty 50 stocks higher. 98, its first uptick in days, as the tape itself smelled something odd in that closing price. So now the desks, and they quietly booked part of the bet. Friday the pros were long volatility, long both calls and puts into the event. Yesterday, on the move, they cashed some of it, they cut their long puts hard and kept the long calls, tilting one side instead of two. The FIIs did the constructive thing. They kept covering, buying back another 22,000 short futures, and the tell, buying back 56,000 of the short calls, taking their foot off the very resistance they had been defending. They bought stocks again, 922 crore, alongside the domestic institutions who bought almost 1,571 crore in the cash market, the second straight day both were buyers. So positioning is turning less defensive, the covering continues, and nobody is pressing a short into the expiry. Overnight sets up the unwind. American futures are mildly green, the Dow up a quarter percent, but Asia is soft again, Japan down half a percent, Korea and Hong Kong both red. So there is no overseas push, and our own futures sit at 24,631, a touch lower. Against yesterday's phantom 24,774 that is a gap down of about 140 points, but against the real 24,586 level it is almost flat to positive. Read that carefully, the market is not gapping down out of weakness, it is gapping down because yesterday's close was fake and this morning simply corrects it. 30, gold firm. Nothing in the macro is fighting the pin. So the lesson, and keep this for life. From yesterday, the exchange stopped averaging the last half hour and started holding a single auction closing price, one price discovered in a short window at the bell. The intent is fairer, but on day one the auction book was thin, there was no price band to catch a runaway, and a burst of orders in the final seconds dragged the index number 188 points away from where it actually traded. Here is the durable rule, guys. When an index headline does not agree with its own future and its own stocks, you trust the futures and the stocks, never the headline. The index is a calculated number, it can misprint. A thousand real trades in the future and the 50 constituents cannot all be wrong at once. So grade your levels off 24,586, not 24,774, and do not get trapped buying a breakout that never happened. So the plan, on today's weekly chain, and it is very simple. At the real level near 24,586 we are sitting inside the pin zone. Max pain is around 24,550 to 600. The biggest resistance of the week by a mile is the 24,600 call, a mountain of open interest, so that is the resistance the writers defend into the close. 57. Base case, a pin expiry in the 24,550 to 600 zone, the writers collect, the straddle bleeds. Above 24,600, held with real buying and not an auction trick, the door opens to 24,700, 24,750 easily. Losing 24,500 brings the market back to that 24,400 zone, and then 24,200 can also come into the picture. And the one thing that matters more than any level today is the close itself. So keep a very light position, guys. Weekly options settle on the cash close, so if the auction misfires a second time at half past three, the settlement price could be distorted on exactly the strikes you were trading. So 24,600, 24,700, trade the real level all day, and treat the last minute as a wild card until the exchange fixes it. And a bookend on the week, the real catalyst is not today, it is tomorrow. 25 percent. So that is why volatility is cheap and the pin is the best case, the market is pricing a non-event. The only tail, same as Monday, is a hawkish hold, a bank that holds the rate but sounds worried on inflation. Keep a little cheap protection into that, and let today's pin run its course. And a scorecard on yesterday, I will call it a four. com. So the plan, guys, is very simple. Check the open, see if 24,600 actually holds. If it holds, we are looking at 700 to 750 as the expiry. If it does not hold and we trade below 550 for more than 15 minutes, then 500 is your expiry pin. So keep a watch on the 24,500, 24,600 and 24,700 strikes, these are the strikes to watch for today, guys. So yesterday the screen lied and the future stole the truth, and the gap between them is the whole lesson, trust the tape, not the headline. Today reality opens near 24,586, on expiry, on the pin, with one wild card in the last minute, and that is the reason you do not trade in the last 30 minutes, guys, do not take heavy positions into the close. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, guys, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give it a rating, guys, and a review if you want to add something to the podcast. Questions ## EP95, in plain words. What does EP95 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP95, Tuesday 4 Aug 2026, 10:05, in 6 chapters: Cold open: the number on your screen is a mirage; Four checks: proving the phantom print; The real tape: rotation, not a ramp; Positioning: booked bets and constructive covering; The lesson: trust the futures and the stocks, never the headline; The plan: pin zone, with a wild card at the bell. How did the calls in EP95 score?Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded against the 5 Aug 2026 session. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 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