--- title: "The Pros Picked A Side. The Fed Held. | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Yesterday the smartest desks in the market stopped hedging both ways and picked a side. For two sessions the pros had held a bet that just wanted a move, long" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-30" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP92 # The pros picked a side. The Fed held. Sensex expiry today Sensex closed 77,654 up 888 points up 1.16 percent Nifty 24,250 up 1.1 percent * **12:20**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Thu 30 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The pros picked a side. The Fed held. Sensex expiry today EP92, 30 Jul, 12:20 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes12:20 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** The Pros Picked A Side Fed Held Fifth Pause Sensex Expiry Sensex 77,654 Up 888 Nifty 24,250 VIX 12.01 Pro Long Calls 1,45,235 Short Puts 36,897 FII Covering Client Short Vol Cash Plus 2,982 Cr Straddle 435 Box 77,220 To 78,090 Call Wall 78,000 Put Floor 77,500 Max Pain 77,500 Gamma Flip 77,700 PCR 1.47 Pin Day Watch 77,700 Respect 78,000 Edu SEBI Closing Auction From 3 Aug * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 31 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's noteGraded Thu 30 Jul EOD. Sensex expiry settled 77,928.15, holding above 77,700 all session and drifting into the 78,000 lid on IT strength, exactly the hold 77,700 then 78,000 lid on IT path called. The pros long paid. The ding, a pin was called and the day delivered a plus 273 grind instead. Four out of five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do 2. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do 3. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do 4. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do 5. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do 6. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do 7. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do 8. **08**The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and ITThe plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do Cold open: the pros stopped hedging and picked a side **90,000**Added roughly Yesterday the sharpest desks in the market stopped hedging both ways and picked a side. For two sessions they had been long calls and long puts at the same time, a bet on a move with no direction. Yesterday they tore it up. They added roughly 90,000 calls in a Read the chapter The tape: a broad rally into the Fed **77,654**Sensex closed **888 points**Sensex closed **1.16 percent**Closed up points **0.79**Bank Nifty Sensex closed 77,654, up 888 points, up 1.16 percent, in a range of about 430 points. Nifty 24,250, up 1.1 percent. Bank Nifty up 0.79. And this was a broad rally, not a narrow one. On the wider market 542 stocks rose against 207 that fell, and the day before Read the chapter Positioning: pro long, FII covering, client short vol **1,45,235**Index calls net long **90,000**Tell, they added **36,897**Index puts net short **4,77,538**Long three ways This is the whole episode. From the official participant file, net contracts, in the order that matters, Pro first, then foreign funds, then the retail client. Pro index futures net long 5236, lifted from flat to long. Index calls net long 1,45,235, and there Read the chapter Cash and flows: the July selling Wall comes down **2982 crore**Market foreign funds bought **3893 crore**Turn, they sold **1711 crore**Too, index futures plus **8539 crore**Funds are now It was not just derivatives. In the cash market foreign funds bought 2982 crore, their biggest buy day in weeks, and look at the turn, they sold 3893 crore on the 24th, 1688 on the 27th, then bought 755 on the 28th and 2982 yesterday. Domestic funds added Read the chapter The overnight: Fed held, chips cooling **3.50**Non event, held **1.7**Percent, the Nasdaq **24,228**Roughly flat **100.92**Softer dollar On rates, a non event, held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, a fifth straight pause, exactly as priced. But Wall Street did not celebrate. The S&P fell 1.5 percent, the Nasdaq 1.7, because the story was never the Fed, it was the chips dragging US tech lower. Then this Read the chapter The vol crush: why sellers have the wind **12.01**Fear gauge **11.9**Weekly volatility read After an event this is the most important thing on the board. The fear gauge is 12.01, our own weekly volatility read around 11.9, both near multi week lows. Here is the mechanic. An option carries an event premium going into a known event like the Fed, and Read the chapter The expiry math: the 77,700 line **77,654**Spot closed **77,700**Money strike **77,220**Deviation, box **78,000**Wall by far Spot closed 77,654, the at the money strike is 77,700. The at the money straddle, the 77,700 call plus the 77,700 put, is about 435, the market's own one standard deviation, a box of about 77,220 on the downside to 78,090 on the upside. On the call side the Read the chapter The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and IT **77,700**Pin day, one number **78,000**Air carries you **77,000**Breaks do you get **77,500**Drift and pin between The plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do not chase into it. Below 77,700 the 77,500 magnet pulls first, the max pain and the put floor together, and only if that breaks do you get 77,000. Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the pros stopped hedging and picked a side Yesterday the sharpest desks in the market stopped hedging both ways and picked a side. For two sessions they had been long calls and long puts at the same time, a bet on a move with no direction. Yesterday they tore it up. They added roughly 90,000 calls in a single day and they flipped from long puts to short puts. That is not a bet on a move anymore. That is a bet up. The day before the Fed. And overnight, the Fed held, a fifth straight pause, no shock. So this morning that long is still live, and today, on Sensex expiry, it settles. This is episode 92. ### *02*The tape: a broad rally into the Fed Sensex closed 77,654, up 888 points, up 1.16 percent, in a range of about 430 points. Nifty 24,250, up 1.1 percent. Bank Nifty up 0.79. And this was a broad rally, not a narrow one. On the wider market 542 stocks rose against 207 that fell, and the day before that number was the other way around. Sector by sector the tech pack led, Teck up 2.47, IT up 2.4, Metal up 2.26, Telecom 1.7, FMCG 1.5, Healthcare 1.26. Only Auto and Realty closed a touch red. And the fear gauge, India VIX, fell to 12.01, down 4.4 percent, a multi week low, the day before a central bank decision. The market walked into the Fed calm. ### *03*Positioning: pro long, FII covering, client short vol This is the whole episode. From the official participant file, net contracts, in the order that matters, Pro first, then foreign funds, then the retail client. Pro index futures net long 5236, lifted from flat to long. Index calls net long 1,45,235, and there is the tell, they added about 90,000 in one day. Index puts net short 36,897, flipped from long puts to short puts. So Pro went long calls, sold puts, added futures, directional long three ways, with 4,77,538 long in stock futures. Foreign funds are still net short 1,94,818 index futures but lighter, they covered about 10,800. They covered nearly 89,000 short calls, trimmed about 44,000 of their long puts, and stayed long 6,26,378 stock futures, the long stock short index hedge intact. Every leg moved the constructive way. The client stayed net long 1,35,390 futures, dumped about 1,80,000 calls into the rally, and sat short 4,86,193 puts, still selling the insurance the pros are buying. ### *04*Cash and flows: the July selling Wall comes down It was not just derivatives. In the cash market foreign funds bought 2982 crore, their biggest buy day in weeks, and look at the turn, they sold 3893 crore on the 24th, 1688 on the 27th, then bought 755 on the 28th and 2982 yesterday. Domestic funds added another 998. The foreign derivatives book was green everywhere too, index futures plus 1711 crore, index options plus 6896, stock futures plus 3263. On the year, foreign funds are now only 8539 crore net sellers in cash, against domestics at plus 31,544. The wall of July selling is coming down. ### *05*The overnight: Fed held, chips cooling On rates, a non event, held at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, a fifth straight pause, exactly as priced. But Wall Street did not celebrate. The S&P fell 1.5 percent, the Nasdaq 1.7, because the story was never the Fed, it was the chips dragging US tech lower. Then this morning, the turn. Asia bounced. Korea's KOSPI, the market that broke two circuit breakers this week, is up 4.4 percent. Taiwan up 1.9. Japan up 1.7. The chip fire is cooling. GIFT Nifty is roughly flat at 24,228, a softer dollar at 100.92, Brent back under 90 at 89.4, gold up at 4083, the US 10 year at 4.68. The backdrop is quietly supportive. ### *06*The vol crush: why sellers have the wind After an event this is the most important thing on the board. The fear gauge is 12.01, our own weekly volatility read around 11.9, both near multi week lows. Here is the mechanic. An option carries an event premium going into a known event like the Fed, and the moment that event passes with no shock, the premium collapses regardless of direction. It is called an implied volatility crush. So today, with the Fed behind us, the options bleed toward intrinsic value, and the sellers of premium have the wind at their back, not the buyers. ### *07*The expiry math: the 77,700 line Spot closed 77,654, the at the money strike is 77,700. The at the money straddle, the 77,700 call plus the 77,700 put, is about 435, the market's own one standard deviation, a box of about 77,220 on the downside to 78,090 on the upside. On the call side the biggest wall by far is 78,000, about 18 lakh contracts, and they added over 6 lakh fresh calls there yesterday, that is the lid, then 78,200. On the put side the floor is 77,500, about 24 lakh puts, and the writers dumped over 22 lakh fresh puts there in a single session, funding that floor, then the deepest wall at 77,000. The put call ratio is 1.47, put heavy, which leans mildly bullish. Max pain sits at 77,500 and the gamma flip line is 77,700. ### *08*The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and IT The plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000, the lid, do not chase into it. Below 77,700 the 77,500 magnet pulls first, the max pain and the put floor together, and only if that breaks do you get 77,000. Base case, with a flat open and a quiet Fed, is a drift and a pin between 77,500 and 77,800. The tell is IT, the pros want 78,000 and the fuel is our own IT names catching the Asian chip bounce. Trade the level, not the move, because after a quiet Fed the volatility gets crushed, not expanded. One structural note, from the 3rd of August SEBI retires the 30 minute average close for every stock with futures and options. The close becomes a single auction price discovered between 3:15 and 3:35. Today is the last big expiry under the old rules. On yesterday's card, I said hold the 23,900 to 24,100 range into the Fed, the market broke out instead and closed 24,250, so roughly a 2.5 out of 5. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Sensex closed 77,654 up 888 points up 1.16 percent Nifty 24,250 up 1.1 percent * *02*Bank Nifty up 0.79 percent a broad rally 542 stocks up against 207 down * *03*Tech led up 2.47 percent IT up 2.4 Metal 2.26 only Auto and Realty closed red * *04*India VIX fell to 12.01 down 4.4 percent a multi week low into the Fed * *05*Pro index futures net long 5236 lifted from flat to long * *06*Pro calls net long 1,45,235 and added about 90,000 in a single day * *07*Pro puts net short 36,897 flipped from long puts to short puts a directional long * *08*Pro stock futures long 4,77,538 long three ways into the event * *09*FII index futures still net short 1,94,818 but covered about 10,800 on the day * *10*FII calls net short 1,58,213 covered nearly 89,000 short calls * *11*FII puts net long 4,77,176 trimmed 44,000 stock futures long 6,26,378 hedge intact * *12*Clients futures net long 1,35,390 calls just 8648 after dumping 1,80,000 into the rally * *13*Clients puts net short 4,86,193 still short vol selling the insurance the pros buy * *14*FII cash bought 2982 crore the biggest buy in weeks DII added 998 crore * *15*FII cash turn minus 3893 minus 1688 plus 755 plus 2982 over four sessions * *16*On the year FII net sellers only 8539 crore cash against DII plus 31,544 crore * *17*Fed held 3.50 to 3.75 percent a fifth straight pause S&P minus 1.5 Nasdaq minus 1.7 on chips * *18*Asia bounced KOSPI up 4.4 percent Taiwan 1.9 Japan 1.7 GIFT flat 24,228 * *19*Sensex ATM straddle about 435 the box 77,220 to 78,090 call wall 78,000 put floor 77,500 * *20*PCR 1.47 max pain 77,500 gamma flip 77,700 pin day watch 77,700 respect 78,000 Show all 20 05In his words That is not a bet on a move any more. That is a bet up. Two of the three desks leaned the same way, up, into a binary event. Still short volatility, still selling the insurance the pros are buying. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,480 words, about 7 min to read A very good morning guys. Yesterday the sharpest desks in the market stopped hedging both ways and picked a side. For two sessions there had been long calls and long puts at the same time, a bet on a move with no direction. Yesterday they tore it up. They added roughly 90,000 calls in a single day and they flipped from long puts to short puts. That is not a bet on a move anymore. That is a bet up. The day before the Fed. And overnight, the Fed held a fifth straight pause, no shock. So this morning that long is still live, and today, on Sensex expiry, it settles. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 92. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. This is a pre-market podcast. Let's go. So starting with the broader Sensex. 16 percent, in a range of about 430 points. 1 percent. 79. And this was a broad rally, not a narrow one. On the wider market 542 stocks rose against 207 that fell, and yesterday that number was the other way around. Sector by sector the tech pack led. 26 percent. Only Auto and Realty closed a touch red. 4 percent, a multi-week low that we are seeing the day before the central bank's decision. The market walked into the Fed with calmness. Now what happened on yesterday's close, the positioning, and this is the whole episode guys. Official participant open interest, net contracts, in the order that matters. Proprietary desks first, then the FIIs, and then the retail clients. So proprietary desks, index futures net long 5,236 contracts, they lifted from flat to long. Index calls net long 1,45,235, and there is a tell, they added about 90,000 of that in one day. Index puts net short 36,897, flipped from long puts to short puts. So the pro went long calls, sold puts, and added futures. Directionally they are long three ways. In stock futures they carry roughly 4,77,538 long. So let's move on to FIIs. FIIs index futures still net short 1,94,818, but lighter, they covered about 10,800 on that day. Index calls net short 1,58,213, they covered nearly 89,000 of those short calls. Index puts net long 4,77,176, but they trimmed about 44,000 of the downside. And in stock futures they are long 6,26,378 futures. That is a long-stock, short-index hedge, still intact. Every single leg moved the constructive way yesterday. And the clients, the crowd, index futures net long 1,35,390. Index calls long only 8,648, because they dumped about 1,80,000 calls into the rally and booked profit. Index puts net short 4,86,193. Still short volatility and still selling the insurance the pros are buying. One picture, pros long, FIIs covering, client short wall. Two of the three desks leaned the same way into a binary event. That was yesterday's Fed event. And it was not just derivatives. In the cash market, foreign funds bought 2,982 crore, their biggest buy in weeks. Look at the turn. They sold 3,893 crore on the 24th, 1,688 on the 27th, and then they bought 755 crore on the 28th, and yesterday 2,982 crore. Domestic funds added another 998 crore in the cash market. The FII derivative book was green everywhere too, index futures plus 1,711 crore, index options plus 6,896 crore, stock futures plus 3,263. On the year, foreign funds are now only 8,539 crore net sellers in the cash market against domestics at plus 31,544 crore. The wall of July selling is coming down. Overnight, then, the Fed on the rates, it was a non-event. 75 percent band, a fifth straight pause, exactly as priced. But Wall Street did not celebrate. 7 percent, because the story was never the Fed, it was still the chips dragging the US tech lower. For a moment the pros' crowded long book looked exposed. Then this morning, the turn. Asia bounced. 4 percent. 9 percent. 7 percent. The chip fire is cooling. GIFT Nifty is roughly flat, trading around 24,228, pointing to a calm open into the expiry. 68, and the backdrop is quietly supportive. Which brings us to volatility, and after an event this is the most important thing on the board. 9, both near multi-week lows. Here is the mechanic guys. An option carries an event premium going into a known event like the Fed, and the moment that event passes with no shock, the premium collapses regardless of the direction. It is called an implied volatility crush. So today, with the Fed behind us, the options bleed toward their intrinsic value, and the sellers of those premiums have the wind at their back, not the buyers. That is the difference between yesterday, when the crowd owned optionality into the event, and today, when it decays. Now the Sensex expiry math guys, because that is what is important today. Spot closed at 77,654, the at-the-money strike is 77,700. The at-the-money straddle, the combined price of the 77,700 call plus the 77,700 put, is about 435. That 435 is the market's own one standard deviation, the move it is pricing between now and the close, about 77,220 on the bottom side and around 78,090 on the upside. That is your box. Inside that box the open interest tells you whether the writers built their walls or resistances. On the call side the biggest resistance by far is the 78,000 strike, about 18 lakh contracts of call over there, and they added over 6 lakh fresh calls yesterday itself. That is the resistance. Above it, it is 78,200, that is the maximum level I am seeing for today. On the put side the floor or the support is 77,500. About 24 lakh puts have been added here and writers have dumped over 22 lakh in fresh puts in a single session, that was yesterday. They are funding that support, daring the market to break below it. Below it, it is the deepest support on the board, 77,000, about 25 lakh contracts. 47, put heavy, which leans mildly bullish, because writers are more comfortable selling downside here than selling upside. Two more numbers that decide the day guys. Max pain, the strike where most option buyers lose their premium and the writers profit the most, sits at 77,500, right on that put floor. And the gamma flip line, the line where market makers switch from amplifying moves to dampening them, is at 77,700, just above the spot. Below 77,700, dealers are short gamma and the moves get amplified. Remember this, if we are trading below 77,700 you would see that 200 point down move towards that 77,500. Reclaim and hold 77,700, gamma turns positive, moves get dampened, and the market pins. So the plan is simple guys. The plan is a pin day, one number, 77,700, remember this. Hold above it and the calmer air carries you to 78,000. So above 77,700, 78,000 is the pin level. Below 77,700, the magnet pulls towards that 77,500 level, the max pain and the put floor together, and only if that breaks you get 77,200. Base case, with a flat open and a quiet Fed, they want 78,000, and the pin can drip between 77,500 to 77,800. The fuel for that is our own IT names catching this morning's Asian chip bounce. If it lifts, the pros get paid and we press towards that 78,000 level. If it fades, then the 77,500 magnet wins. Trade the level, not the move, because 77,500 to 77,800 or 78,000 is your structure for today. One thing worth knowing guys, and it lands Monday. From the 3rd of August, SEBI retires the 30-minute average close for every stock that has futures and options. The close becomes a single auction price, discovered between 3:15 and 3:35, matched at one price with the most volume, with a random cutoff so nobody games the last second. Every expiry you have ever traded settled on that last half-hour average VWAP. From Monday it is an auction. Today is the last big expiry under the old rules. So from next week, watch the 3:15 to 3:40 window, that becomes the new pin zone. Scorecard on yesterday. I said hold the 23,900 to 24,100 range into the Fed. The market broke out instead, closed at 24,250, and the pros were the reason it ran. 5 out of 5. com. Have a happy expiry guys. The proprietary desks picked a side, the Fed is behind us, the chip fire is cooling, and today is the bet settlement day. Watch 77,700, respect 78,000, keep one eye on IT, and remember the close changes on Monday. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give a rating guys, and a review if you want to add something to the podcast. Questions ## EP92, in plain words. What does EP92 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP92, Thursday 30 Jul 2026, 12:20, in 8 chapters: Cold open: the pros stopped hedging and picked a side; The tape: a broad rally into the Fed; Positioning: pro long, FII covering, client short vol; Cash and flows: the July selling Wall comes down; The overnight: Fed held, chips cooling; The vol crush: why sellers have the wind; The expiry math: the 77,700 line; The plan: pin day, watch 77,700 and IT. How did the calls in EP92 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 31 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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