--- title: "A Gap-Up Into Expiry Day: 24,000 Is the | The Tanmay Edge" description: "The Nifty reclaimed 24,000 at 24,006 | and this morning GIFT is pointing to a gap-up open near 24,150, a clear 150 points above the level that broke last" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-02" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP72 # A Gap-Up into expiry day: 24,000 is the floor, and the jobs report waits for tonight Nifty 24,005.85 plus 140.10 plus 0.59 percent reclaimed 24,000 * **10:31**listen * **7/8**graded at settlement * **Thu 2 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing A Gap-Up into expiry day: 24,000 is the floor, and the jobs report waits for tonight EP72, 2 Jul, 10:31 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:31 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 7/8 at settlement. **7/8**88% **The call.** Sensex Weekly Expiry Plus US Jobs Twin Catalyst 24,000 Floor * **7**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 3 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. 2. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. 3. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. 4. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. 5. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. 6. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. 7. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. 8. **Hit**crude benign and the rupee the watch item, WTI near 67.64 and the rupee firmed toward 95.08 the friendly branch. Seven hits zero partials one miss, the strongest grade in the recent trail, the lone miss the event premium volatility call on a day early jobs print. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**The plan: buy dips, respect the range, letWe are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the 2. **07**The plan: buy dips, respect the range, letWe are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the 3. **07**The plan: buy dips, respect the range, letWe are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the 4. **07**The plan: buy dips, respect the range, letWe are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the 5. **07**The plan: buy dips, respect the range, letWe are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the 6. **07**The plan: buy dips, respect the range, letWe are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the 7. **07**The plan: buy dips, respect the range, letWe are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the Cold open: the reclaim and a two catalyst day **24,000**Climbed back above **24,006**Closed there **150 points**Set to open clear Yesterday the market did the one thing everybody had stopped expecting. It climbed back above 24,000 and closed there at 24,006. The level that broke last week is back under our feet, and this morning we are set to open a clear 150 points higher. But do not Read the chapter Global and GIFT: tech soft, rupee weak on 95, a homegrown gap up **0.7 percent**Slipped again **3 percent**Heavy, Korea off nearly **4,050**Gold eased **139 points**GIFT Nifty Overnight the US gave us nothing. The Nasdaq slipped again, down about 0.7 percent, a second soft session for tech, the S&P eased, and only Dow futures held barely green. The tech tailwind has gone quiet two days running, and that matters because our own IT Read the chapter Two events one day: Sensex expiry by day, US jobs by night The first event is here at home. Today is Sensex weekly expiry. Those weekly bets settle this afternoon, and that pulls the index toward the levels where the most money is parked. The second is bigger, and it lands after we have gone home. Tonight the United States releases its monthly jobs report, a day early this month because Friday is a US holiday. That number sets what the US central bank does on interest rates Read the chapter The money: pros long and hedged, foreigners short, the crowd exposed **2.6**Deeper, now short **7 lakh**Pile of protection, nearly The professional desks came into July leaning up, and yesterday they pressed that bet harder. They are net long the market through futures and piled on a big stack of fresh upside bets. But the tell is that they kept their downside protection on at the same Read the chapter The levels: 24,000 the floor, 24,200 the cap, Sensex 77,000 the line **150 points**Floor we open **24,200**Line that matters **24,100**Pullback toward **24,050**Pullback toward or even Start with the Nifty. 24,000 has flipped its job, last week the resistance overhead, now the floor, and after the gap up a floor we open 150 points above. So the line that matters is 24,200, the next big cluster of selling bets, and we open right underneath Read the chapter The education: event premium The tape looks sleepy. The daily moves are tiny, the fear gauge is near its lows. Everything says calm. And yet the price of protection, buying an option to cover your downside, is holding firm. It is not as cheap as a sleepy tape says it should be. Why. Because of tonight's jobs number. When a known event sits on the calendar, the price of insurance stays propped up right until that event, because nobody can tell Read the chapter The plan: buy dips, respect the range, let tonight decide **24,000**Gapping up above **150 points**First green candle **24,100**Add on pullbacks toward **24,050**Pullbacks toward or even We are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the discipline, I am a buyer of dips, not a chaser of the gap. I do not buy the first green candle 150 points higher, I let the open settle and add on Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the reclaim and a two catalyst day Yesterday the market did the one thing everybody had stopped expecting. It climbed back above 24,000 and closed there at 24,006. The level that broke last week is back under our feet, and this morning we are set to open a clear 150 points higher. But do not get comfortable. Today two big events land on the very same day. One during our session, one after we close. And when two catalysts stack on top of each other, the market stops trusting the calm. ### *02*Global and GIFT: tech soft, rupee weak on 95, a homegrown gap up Overnight the US gave us nothing. The Nasdaq slipped again, down about 0.7 percent, a second soft session for tech, the S&P eased, and only Dow futures held barely green. The tech tailwind has gone quiet two days running, and that matters because our own IT pack is still the weakest link. Asia is split, Hong Kong firm but Japan, Taiwan and Korea heavy, Korea off nearly 3 percent. Crude keeps drifting lower, Brent near 71 dollars and US crude closer to 68 as the US and Iran keep talking. Gold eased to about 4,050. Here is the number to watch, the rupee. Yesterday it weakened to about 95 and a quarter, its softest close in a while, and it now sits right on top of the 95 line. And here is the setup, GIFT Nifty is up 139 points at 24,183, pointing to the Nifty opening near 24,150, a gap up of about 140 points. The US gave us nothing overnight yet we are gapping up anyway, so this move is homegrown. ### *03*Two events one day: Sensex expiry by day, US jobs by night The first event is here at home. Today is Sensex weekly expiry. Those weekly bets settle this afternoon, and that pulls the index toward the levels where the most money is parked. The second is bigger, and it lands after we have gone home. Tonight the United States releases its monthly jobs report, a day early this month because Friday is a US holiday. That number sets what the US central bank does on interest rates, and it moves the dollar, our rupee, and foreign flows into India. It drops after our close, so our session cannot see it. It can only brace for it. An expiry pulling us sideways by day, a coin flip hanging over tonight. Two hands on the wheel. ### *04*The money: pros long and hedged, foreigners short, the crowd exposed The professional desks came into July leaning up, and yesterday they pressed that bet harder. They are net long the market through futures and piled on a big stack of fresh upside bets. But the tell is that they kept their downside protection on at the same time. Long the market, and insured. That is a desk that wants higher but refuses to be caught naked into a jobs number. The foreign desks are still on the other side. They pushed their bet against the index a little deeper, now short about 2.6 lakh contracts, and stayed net sellers of stock. Leaning down, still defensive. And the everyday crowd is long the market and has sold a huge pile of protection, nearly 7 lakh contracts, to earn a little income. That works beautifully on a calm day. It is the exposed side if tonight's number goes the wrong way. ### *05*The levels: 24,000 the floor, 24,200 the cap, Sensex 77,000 the line Start with the Nifty. 24,000 has flipped its job, last week the resistance overhead, now the floor, and after the gap up a floor we open 150 points above. So the line that matters is 24,200, the next big cluster of selling bets, and we open right underneath it. A clean push through 24,200 needs a friendly jobs number, so that is a Friday story, not a today story. A pullback toward 24,100 or even 24,050 is a level to lean on, not to fear, as long as 24,000 holds on a close. Only a close back below 24,000 puts 23,900 and 23,800 back in play. Now the Sensex, because it is expiry day, and the gap up flips the story. It closed 76,922 but is set to open above 77,000, its biggest line, where the tape flips from choppy to calm. Hold above 77,000 and it turns from ceiling into floor, the settlement drifting toward 77,000 to 77,500. Slip under 77,000 and 76,500 comes into play. The fear gauge, the market's price of insurance, is still sitting low around 13. That matters for the plan. ### *06*The education: event premium The tape looks sleepy. The daily moves are tiny, the fear gauge is near its lows. Everything says calm. And yet the price of protection, buying an option to cover your downside, is holding firm. It is not as cheap as a sleepy tape says it should be. Why. Because of tonight's jobs number. When a known event sits on the calendar, the price of insurance stays propped up right until that event, because nobody can tell you which way it breaks. You are not paying for what the market is doing today, you are paying for what it might do the second that number prints. Then, the morning after, the mystery is gone and the air comes out of that insurance price fast. Traders call that the event letting go. So the practical edge. If you want a hedge, you buy it before the number while it is still reasonable, not in a panic after. And you do not sell your protection cheap the night before a jobs report, because you would be handing away insurance right when it is about to be needed. ### *07*The plan: buy dips, respect the range, let tonight decide We are gapping up above 24,000, so my base case is constructive, 24,000 is firmly the floor. But here is the discipline, I am a buyer of dips, not a chaser of the gap. I do not buy the first green candle 150 points higher, I let the open settle and add on pullbacks toward 24,100 or even 24,050, with 24,000 as my line in the sand. 24,200 is the cap. On the Sensex the whole game is one number, hold 77,000 and the expiry drifts toward 77,500, lose it and 76,500 is the net. And I am trading lighter, because the real move is not today, it is tonight's jobs number, and it plays out tomorrow. Today is the market holding its breath. So no chasing a breakout above 24,200, and I am keeping my cheap protection on, not selling it. My systematic read matches the split the tape keeps showing, constructive on the broad market, smaller names, autos, consumer goods and financials all strong, and cautious on IT nursing a fourth day down. If IT steadies we press 24,200, a fresh IT low caps us at 24,000. A gap up into a Sensex expiry, a jobs number waiting for tonight, and a rupee sitting weak on 95. That is a day to buy the dips, respect the range, keep your protection, and let tonight's number make the big call. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty 24,005.85 plus 140.10 plus 0.59 percent reclaimed 24,000 * *02*Sensex 76,922.64 plus 443.97 plus 0.58 percent closed just under 77,000 * *03*GIFT Nifty 24,183 plus 139 implied open near 24,150 a gap up about 150 * *04*Bank Nifty about 57,550 held 57,500 * *05*India VIX about 13.2 minus 3 percent still low no fear bid * *06*Breadth positive advancers 33 decliners 17 on the Nifty 50 * *07*Nifty IT minus 2 percent a 4th straight down day HCLTech minus 3.46 percent * *08*Realty FMCG Media Auto and PSU Bank led risk on * *09*Eternal plus 5.71 percent the top contributor * *10*FII cash net sellers DII net buyers a 4th straight session absorbing * *11*Pro index futures plus 11,647 long added about 73,000 long calls * *12*Pro long puts plus 1,66,489 long and hedged leaning up * *13*FII index futures net short 2,60,059 deepened three legs bearish * *14*Client short about 6,98,000 puts max bull and exposed * *15*Nifty 24,000 the floor 24,200 the cap next weekly Tuesday 7 July * *16*Sensex 77,000 the wall and gamma flip 77,500 next 76,500 the put base * *17*Brent about 71 WTI about 68 crude drifting lower * *18*Gold about 4050 rupee weak about 95.2 watch 95.5 * *19*US Nasdaq minus 0.7 percent tech soft a second day * *20*US June jobs report tonight a day early Friday is a US holiday Show all 20 05In his words The level that broke last week is back under our feet. The US gave us nothing overnight, yet we are gapping up anyway. This move is homegrown. An expiry pulling us sideways by day, a coin flip hanging over tonight. Two hands on the wheel. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,412 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the market did the one thing everybody had stopped expecting. It climbed back above 24,000 and closed there, at 24,006. The level that broke last week is back under our feet and this morning we are set to open a clear 150 points higher, on Sensex expiry. But don't get comfortable yet, because today two big events land on the very same day. One during our session, one after our close. And when two catalysts stack on top of each other, the market stops trusting the calm. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to Tanmay Kurtkoti, Season 2, Episode 72. Let's go. Starting with outside India. Overnight the US gave us nothing. 7 percent a second soft session for tech. The S&P eased a touch, and only Dow futures held barely green. So the tech tailwind has gone quiet two days running, and that matters, because our own IT pack is still the weakest link in the market. Asia this morning is split Hong Kong firm, but Japan, Taiwan and Korea are all heavy, with Korea off nearly 3 percent. Crude keeps drifting lower. Brent is near 71 dollars, the US crude close to 68, as the US and Iran keep talking. Cheap oil stays a quiet tailwind for us. Gold eased overnight, back to about 4,050. But here's the number I want you watching: the rupee. Yesterday it weakened it slid to about 95 and a quarter against the dollar, its softest close in a while, and it's now sitting right on top of that 95 line. A weak rupee is one of the things that keeps foreign money nervous, and a push toward 95 and a half, right into tonight's jobs number, is exactly what nobody wants to see. And now the number that sets up your whole morning: GIFT Nifty is up 140 points, trading around 24,183. Strip out the premium and that points to the Nifty opening near 24,150, a gap-up of roughly 140 points. So today we don't just hold above 24,000 we open a clear 140 points above it, right underneath the 24,200 resistance. And notice what that means: the US gave us nothing overnight, yet we are gapping up anyway. This move is our own market's doing, not an import. The question today isn't whether we get back to 24,000. It's whether we can hold this gap-up and take on the 24,200 level, with the jobs number waiting for tonight. So what are these two events? The first: today is Thursday, Sensex weekly expiry. The weekly bets on the Sensex settle this afternoon, and that pulls the index toward the level where most of the money is parked. The second is bigger, and it lands after we've gotten home. Tonight the United States releases its monthly jobs report and this month it lands a day early, on a Thursday, because Friday is a US holiday. That number decides what the US central bank does next with interest rates, and it moves everything: the dollar, our rupee, foreign flows into India. It drops after our market closes, which means today our session doesn't get to see it. It can only brace for it. That's the setup: an expiry that pulls us sideways during the day, and a coin-flip event hanging over tonight. Two hands on the wheel. Now the part that matters most: who actually moved the money. In the order that counts the pros came into July leaning up, and yesterday they pressed the bet harder. They are net long the market through futures, and they piled on a big stack of fresh upside bets on top of it. And this is the tell: they kept their downside protection on at the same time. Long the market, and insured via options. That's a desk that wants higher but refuses to be caught naked into a jobs number. 6 lakh contracts, and they stayed net sellers of stock in the cash market. Leaning down, still defensive. And the everyday crowd: long the market, and they've sold a huge pile of protection nearly 7 lakh contracts to earn a little income. That works beautifully on a calm day; it's the exposed side if tonight's number goes the wrong way. So the read is simple, guys: the pros are long but hedged, the foreigners are short, and the crowd is long and unprotected. The smart money is paying for the insurance. The crowd is selling it. Hold that thought. So where does that leave the levels? Starting with Nifty. 24,000 has flipped its job. Last week it was the resistance overhead; now it's the floor beneath us, so it acts as support and after today's gap-up, it's a support we're opening a full 150 points above. So the line that matters on the upside is 24,200, the next big cluster of selling bets in the OI. A clean push through 24,200 really needs a friendly jobs number, so that's more a Friday story than a today story. On the downside, this is exactly where buy-on-dips would work: a pullback toward 24,050 to 24,100 is a level to lean on, not to fear, as long as 24,000 holds on a closing basis that's your stop-loss level. Only a close back below 24,000 puts 23,800 back in the picture. Until then we are clear till 24,200. Now the Sensex, because today is weekly expiry, and the gap changes the whole story. Sensex closed at 76,922, just under that 77,000 mark, but this morning it's set to open above 77,000 and 77,000 is the big line. So open and hold above 77,000, and it turns from ceiling to support: the settlement gets pulled up toward that 77,200 to 77,500 zone, with 77,500 the next resistance overhead. Slip back below 77,000 and 76,700 to 76,500 is the support that comes into play. So the entire Sensex expiry today hinges on one question: does it hold above 77,000? If yes, we're having an expiry between 77,300 and 77,500. And remember the fear gauge the market's price of insurance it is still extremely low, that's VIX around 13. Remember that; it matters for today's plan, and I'll tell you why right now. So my plan for today is simple, guys. We are gapping up above 24,000, and 77,000 on Sensex, so my base case is constructive 77,000 is now firmly the support on Sensex, and 24,000 on Nifty. But here's the discipline: I am a buyer of dips, not a chaser of the gap. I don't buy the first green candle 150 points higher. I let the open settle, and I look to add on pullbacks that 24,050 to 24,100 level, and that's where the reward-to-risk lives. On Sensex I'd buy around that 77,100 to 77,300 mark, with 24,000 as my line in the sand and 77,000 for Sensex. 24,200 is the cap for the day. And on Sensex, hold above 77,000 and the expiry drifts toward that 77,300 to 500 mark; lose it and we'd see 76,700 is the net. I am trading lighter than usual here's why. The real move isn't today. It's tonight, when that jobs number hits, and it plays out tomorrow morning. Today's session is the market holding its breath. So I'm not chasing a breakout above 24,200 that decision belongs to tomorrow. And I am keeping my protection on, not selling it, because the insurance is priced for exactly this kind of event. My systematic read agrees with the split the tape keeps showing: constructive on the broader market the smaller names, auto, consumer goods, financials all strong and still cautious on IT, which is nursing a fourth day of losses and needs the bleeding to stop. If IT steadies today, we press 24,200. If it makes a fresh low, 24,000 is our support. One line to close this setup: a gap-up into a Sensex expiry, a jobs number waiting for tonight, and a rupee sitting weak on 95. So it's a day to buy on dips, respect the range, keep your protection on, and let tonight's number not today's tape dictate the big call. That's your edge for today, guys. If this added value, share it with the one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I'm building RupeeCase India's first systematic investing terminal, which outperformed once again yesterday as well. So you just got earlier, guys. See you all once again tomorrow. Have a very happy expiry. Questions ## EP72, in plain words. What does EP72 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP72, Thursday 2 Jul 2026, 10:31, in 7 chapters: Cold open: the reclaim and a two catalyst day; Global and GIFT: tech soft, rupee weak on 95, a homegrown gap up; Two events one day: Sensex expiry by day, US jobs by night; The money: pros long and hedged, foreigners short, the crowd exposed; The levels: 24,000 the floor, 24,200 the cap, Sensex 77,000 the line; The education: event premium; The plan: buy dips, respect the range, let tonight decide. How did the calls in EP72 score?Grade 7/8 (88 percent): 7 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 3 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.6Derivatives, Futures and Options for the Systematic Investor8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-6-derivatives-futures-options) * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [StrategyDynamic Asset Allocator strategyNifty Total Market plus debt and gold, 52 stocks, every 3 weeks](/strategies/dynamic-asset-allocator) * [Free module 7.2RBI and Monetary Policy11 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-2-rbi-monetary-policy) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup) [Join the WhatsApp group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7) [One form, one group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7)Scan with your phone camera 07Read next ## Behind the calls. [Learn, module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market LinkagesIndian equity markets don't operate in isolation. Every day, foreign money flows in or out, moves the rupee, and shiftsIntermediate, 10 min](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages)[Learn, module 2.3Risk Metrics That MatterEvery strategy shows you a CAGR. Fewer show you the drawdown. Almost none explain what the Sharpe ratio actually means.Intermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-2/module-2-3-risk-metrics-that-matter) [StrategyEnergy Basket10 stocks from CNX Energy, rotated weekly. The thematic satellite.Model, back tested CAGR 33.1%, as of 27 Apr 2026. Risk High.](/strategies/energy-basket) Share [X](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=A%20Gap-Up%20into%20expiry%20day%3A%2024%2C000%20is%20the%20floor%2C%20and%20the%20jobs%20report%20waits%20for%20tonight%20%7C%20The%20Tanmay%20Edge%20EP72&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-07-02) [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-07-02) Copy link [All episodes](/podcast/) Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.