--- title: "Sensex Expiry, And The Fed Turned Hawkish. | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Four green days, a real breakout, and then the Fed turned hawkish overnight. On Thursday's episode of The Tanmay Edge we trade the collision." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-18" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP63 # Sensex expiry, and the Fed turned hawkish. 77,000 decides Sensex 77,155.62 plus 347.14 plus 0.45 percent fourth green day high 77,218.99 * **12:21**listen * **4.5/5**graded at settlement * **Thu 18 Jun 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Sensex expiry, and the Fed turned hawkish. 77,000 decides EP63, 18 Jun, 12:21 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes12:21 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4.5/5 at settlement. **4.5/5**90% **The call.** Sensex 0DTE Breakout Versus Hawkish Fed * **5**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded the next trading day, 19 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's split does not sum to the score denominator; both are shown as recorded. 1. **Hit**the macro cushion, India shrugged the hawkish Fed though the drag was IT not financials. Five hits and one partial, a clean read. 2. **Hit**the macro cushion, India shrugged the hawkish Fed though the drag was IT not financials. Five hits and one partial, a clean read. 3. **Hit**the macro cushion, India shrugged the hawkish Fed though the drag was IT not financials. Five hits and one partial, a clean read. 4. **Hit**the macro cushion, India shrugged the hawkish Fed though the drag was IT not financials. Five hits and one partial, a clean read. 5. **Hit**the macro cushion, India shrugged the hawkish Fed though the drag was IT not financials. Five hits and one partial, a clean read. 6. **Hit**the macro cushion, India shrugged the hawkish Fed though the drag was IT not financials. Five hits and one partial, a clean read. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[June 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-06/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money 2. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money 3. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money 4. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money 5. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money 6. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money 7. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money 8. **08**The plan and the grade: respect 77,000On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money Cold open: a real breakout meets a hawkish Fed **24,000**Times, Nifty closed above **77,000**Sensex pushed back A very good morning, guys. For four mornings I have come on here and told you this market wanted to go higher, and for four mornings it delivered. Yesterday it finally did the thing it had failed at five separate times, Nifty closed above 24,000, the wall Read the chapter The tape we are defending: Sensex 77,155, Nifty first close over 24,000 **77,155**Sensex closed **347 points**Sensex closed **77,219**After tagging high **24,085**Added to close The Sensex closed 77,155, up 347 points, its fourth straight green day, after tagging a high of 77,219. Nifty added 96 to close at 24,085, its first ever close above 24,000 after five rejections, thirty two stocks up and eighteen down. The leadership was broad Read the chapter The overhang: Fed held but turned hawkish, India shrugs **24,057**Nifty is trading **28 points**Trading near barely Overnight the Federal Reserve held its rate, that part was expected. The surprise was the tone. The dot plot, the officials' own forecast of where rates go, shifted up to point at a hike this year, and the language about future cuts was stripped out. This was Read the chapter Reading the Sensex 0DTE chain: 77,000 floor, 77,500 roof **77,000**Hold, piled **21 lakh**Day, taking it past **77,500**Heaviest fresh calls **8 lakh**Fresh calls at almost The Sensex settles this afternoon, so let me read you the chain, the open interest, where the big money parked. Two things happened yesterday. First, the put writers, the people betting we hold, piled in at 77,000, they added almost 17 and a half lakh Read the chapter The size of the move: straddle 470, both bands agree **76,690**Straddle implied band runs **77,625**Implied band runs **1.25**Straddle and multiplies **76,570**Points, band Now the size of today's move, two ways, because they should agree. The at the money straddle, the price of buying both the call and the put at 77,200, is about 470 points, the market's own quote for the day's range. Lay it on the close and the straddle implied Read the chapter The gamma switch: 77,300 is the number today **77,250**Positive right **77,300**Positive right **77,500**Pinning the tape toward **24,085**Nifty, which closed Here is the piece most people skip, the gamma, which tells you how the day moves, not just where. When the big dealers' gamma is negative they amplify the tape, they sell into weakness and buy into strength, so moves feed on themselves and the day whips. When Read the chapter Positioning: foreign short versus retail long across 77,000 **179 crore**Third straight day, small **1703 crore**Domestic funds bought **2.25**Still net short **77,000**Hawkish Fed cracks Underneath all of it, the positioning is the twist. The foreign desk bought cash for a third straight day, a small 179 crore, and the domestic funds bought 1703 crore. But in the index futures, the foreign desk is still net short about 2.25 lakh contracts Read the chapter The plan and the grade: respect 77,000, reclaim 77,300, size down **77,000**While we hold **77,500**Opens run **76,500**Pocket straight **24,000**Above the switch On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money floor, the bias stays up, and a reclaim of 77,250 to 77,300 flips the dealers to pinning and opens a run at 77,500. Lose 77,000, and because we are in Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: a real breakout meets a hawkish Fed A very good morning, guys. For four mornings I have come on here and told you this market wanted to go higher, and for four mornings it delivered. Yesterday it finally did the thing it had failed at five separate times, Nifty closed above 24,000, the wall became a floor, and the Sensex pushed back over 77,000. A clean breakout. And then, the moment we went home, the cloud we had been trading under broke. The United States Federal Reserve held rates but turned hawkish, its new projections now point to a rate hike this year instead of a cut, and Wall Street faded on it. So we walk into Sensex expiry day holding a fresh breakout in one hand and a hawkish Fed in the other. Today the option chain tells us which one wins. ### *02*The tape we are defending: Sensex 77,155, Nifty first close over 24,000 The Sensex closed 77,155, up 347 points, its fourth straight green day, after tagging a high of 77,219. Nifty added 96 to close at 24,085, its first ever close above 24,000 after five rejections, thirty two stocks up and eighteen down. The leadership was broad and cyclical, Trent up 7 percent, Bharat Electronics up 3, the IT pack with Infosys, Tech Mahindra and TCS, plus Tata Steel, Bharti, Sun Pharma, Titan and State Bank all green. The drag was the private financials, Axis, Kotak and the Bajaj twins all in the red. Metals, defence, IT and energy leading, the lenders holding it back, hold that shape. ### *03*The overhang: Fed held but turned hawkish, India shrugs Overnight the Federal Reserve held its rate, that part was expected. The surprise was the tone. The dot plot, the officials' own forecast of where rates go, shifted up to point at a hike this year, and the language about future cuts was stripped out. This was Chair Warsh's first meeting and he set a hawkish marker. Wall Street faded on it, the S&P and the Nasdaq both red, the two year yield up, the dollar firmer. And yet here is the first tell, our own market is shrugging it off. GIFT Nifty is trading near 24,057, barely 28 points soft, pointing to a flat open and not a gap down, the morning after a hawkish Fed. The reason sits in the commodity screen, Brent crude at 78 and a half dollars, a three month low and a fourth straight down session. Cheap oil and a firm rupee near 94 and a half are the cushion under this breakout. ### *04*Reading the Sensex 0DTE chain: 77,000 floor, 77,500 roof The Sensex settles this afternoon, so let me read you the chain, the open interest, where the big money parked. Two things happened yesterday. First, the put writers, the people betting we hold, piled in at 77,000, they added almost 17 and a half lakh contracts at that one strike in a single day, taking it past 21 lakh, the single heaviest block near the money. That is your floor, and it was built yesterday, not last week, so it is fresh conviction money. Below it, 76,500 and 76,000 hold the next put walls, each above 21 lakh. Second, the call writers stacked their heaviest fresh calls at 77,500, almost 8 lakh added, taking it past 15 and a half lakh, the heaviest near money resistance. There is bigger standing call open interest further out at 78,000, but that is a wall for another week, not a number that pins a 0DTE today. So the chain draws the box, support at 77,000 with fresh money, resistance at 77,500, and the put call ratio across the Sensex chain is 1.35, leaning bullish. ### *05*The size of the move: straddle 470, both bands agree Now the size of today's move, two ways, because they should agree. The at the money straddle, the price of buying both the call and the put at 77,200, is about 470 points, the market's own quote for the day's range. Lay it on the close and the straddle implied band runs 76,690 to 77,625. The second method, the one standard deviation range, takes that straddle and multiplies by 1.25 for about 585 points, a band of 76,570 to 77,740. Two methods, two bands that bracket each other, and notice the floors of both land right on the 77,000 and 76,500 put support, and the roofs land on the 77,500 call wall. The math and the positioning are telling you the same thing, this expiry should resolve between roughly 76,600 and 77,650 unless something snaps it. ### *06*The gamma switch: 77,300 is the number today Here is the piece most people skip, the gamma, which tells you how the day moves, not just where. When the big dealers' gamma is negative they amplify the tape, they sell into weakness and buy into strength, so moves feed on themselves and the day whips. When it is positive they pin the tape and the swings die. On the Sensex that gamma flips from negative to positive right around 77,250 to 77,300, call it the switch. We closed at 77,155, below the switch, in amplified territory. That is important, on a 0DTE expiry below the switch a push lower can run, it does not gently pin. Only if we reclaim 77,300 do the dealers flip to pinning the tape toward 77,500. Contrast that with the Nifty, which closed at 24,085, above its own switch near 24,050, so the Nifty is in the calm pinned zone today while the Sensex, the index that actually expires, is in the jumpy amplified one. That single line, 77,300, is the most important number on your screen today. ### *07*Positioning: foreign short versus retail long across 77,000 Underneath all of it, the positioning is the twist. The foreign desk bought cash for a third straight day, a small 179 crore, and the domestic funds bought 1703 crore. But in the index futures, the foreign desk is still net short about 2.25 lakh contracts, they trimmed it by barely 5000 yesterday. A market made a fresh breakout while its biggest player stayed short. If 77,000 holds today, that short is squeeze fuel, they get forced to buy. If the hawkish Fed cracks 77,000, the short was right all along. The retail crowd is net long about 1.57 lakh contracts, the proprietary desks are flat, so the whole day is foreign short versus retail long across that 77,000 line. ### *08*The plan and the grade: respect 77,000, reclaim 77,300, size down On a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch it is disciplined, not brave. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money floor, the bias stays up, and a reclaim of 77,250 to 77,300 flips the dealers to pinning and opens a run at 77,500. Lose 77,000, and because we are in amplified territory, there is an air pocket straight down to 76,500. On the Nifty we are above the switch, so 24,000 has flipped from ceiling to support, buy the dip toward 24,000, the straddle frames 23,790 to 24,380, take something off into 24,200, and the long is wrong only below 23,950. Size everything down, it is expiry and the Fed just turned. India VIX is back near 13 and a half and the Sensex implied volatility was crushed almost 9 percent, and cheap premium on a 0DTE looks like a free lunch. It is not, we are below the switch where a single headline can whip the tape. Do not sell naked premium into this expiry, and do not chase the opening gap. Cheap oil is the cushion, the hawkish Fed is the risk. Episode 62 graded 4.5 out of 5, another clean read, full scorecard on rupeecase.com. Trade the level, not the opinion. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Sensex 77,155.62 plus 347.14 plus 0.45 percent fourth green day high 77,218.99 * *02*Nifty 24,085.70 plus 96.55 plus 0.40 percent first ever close above 24,000 adv 32 dec 18 * *03*Leaders TRENT plus 7.06 BEL plus 3.06 INFY plus 1.29 TCS plus 1.08 SBIN plus 1.03 * *04*Laggards private financials BAJAJFINSV minus 1.22 AXISBANK minus 1.09 KOTAKBANK minus 0.88 * *05*Fed held 3.50 to 3.75 percent hawkish dot plot flags a 2026 hike cut bias removed * *06*Warsh first meeting US faded Dow S&P Nasdaq red two year yield up DXY 100.29 * *07*GIFT 24,057 about 28 soft flat open the morning after a hawkish Fed * *08*Brent 78.42 three month low fourth down day WTI 75.48 rupee about 94.4 Gold 4322 * *09*Sensex 77,000 put OI past 21 lakh plus 17.5 lakh fresh single heaviest block * *10*Sensex put walls 76,500 and 76,000 each above 21 lakh * *11*Sensex 77,500 call OI past 15.5 lakh plus 8 lakh fresh heaviest near money resistance * *12*Sensex chain PCR 1.35 leaning bullish more support writers than breakdown * *13*Sensex ATM straddle 470 band 76,690 to 77,625 * *14*One SD envelope about 585 band 76,570 to 77,740 both methods agree * *15*Sensex gamma switch 77,250 to 77,300 spot 77,155 below it amplified * *16*Nifty closed 24,085 above its switch near 24,050 pinned 24,000 now support * *17*Nifty 24,000 max put OI 82.9 lakh and max call OI 67 lakh PCR 1.07 * *18*Nifty straddle 295 band 23,790 to 24,380 take off 24,200 invalid below 23,950 * *19*FII cash plus 178.75 crore third buy day still net short about 2.25 lakh futures trimmed only 5000 * *20*DII plus 1702.64 crore Client net long 1.57 lakh Pro flat India VIX near 13.5 Show all 20 05In his words We walk into Sensex expiry day holding a fresh breakout in one hand and a hawkish Fed in the other. Today the option chain tells us which one wins. Nifty closed above 24,000, the wall became a floor, and the Sensex pushed back over 77,000. A clean breakout. That is your floor, and it was built yesterday, not last week, so it is fresh conviction money. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,625 words, about 7 min to read It's 8:30 AM, guys. Four mornings I have come on here and told you this market wanted to go higher, and for four mornings it had delivered perfectly. Yesterday it finally did the thing it had failed at five separate times. Nifty closed above 24,000, the resistance became the support, and the Sensex pushed back over 77,000. A clean breakout. And then, the moment we went home, the cloud we had been trading under broke. The United States Federal Reserve held rates but turned hawkish, its new projections now point to a rate hike this year instead of a cut, and Wall Street faded on it. So we walk into Sensex expiry holding a fresh breakout in one hand and a hawkish Fed in the other. Today, the option chain tells us which one wins. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 63. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Let's start with the tape we are defending. The Sensex closed at 77,155, up 347 points, its fourth straight green day, after tagging a high of 77,219. Nifty added 96 to close at 24,085, its first ever close above 24,000 after five rejections, 32 stocks up and 18 down. The leadership was broad and cyclical. Trent was up 7%, Bharat Electronics up 3%, the IT pack with Infosys, Tech Mahindra and TCS, plus Tata Steel, Bharti, Sun Pharma, Titan, State Bank all green. The drag was the private financials, Axis, Kotak and the Bajaj twins all in red. Metals, defence, IT and energy leading, the lenders holding it back. Hold that shape in your mind. Now the overhang. Overnight the Federal Reserve held its rate, that part was expected. The surprise was the tone. The dot plot, which is the officials' own forecast of where rates go, shifted up to point at a hike this year, and the language about future cuts was stripped out. This was the Chair's first meeting, and he set a hawkish marker. Wall Street faded on it, the S&P and the Nasdaq both ended in red, the two-year government yield is up, the dollar is firmer. And yet here is the first tell, our own market is shrugging it off. GIFT Nifty is trading near 24,057, barely 24 points soft, pointing to a flat open, not a gap down, the morning after a hawkish Fed read. The reason sits in the commodity screen. 50, a three-month low and a fourth straight down session with the US-Iran deal due on Friday. Cheap oil and a firm rupee near 94 and a half are the cushion under this breakout. Now the part that decides today, because the Sensex settles this afternoon. So let me actually read you the chain, the open interest, where the big money has parked up and what it implies. Two things happened yesterday, guys. First, the put writers, the people who sell puts because they are betting we hold, piled in at 77,000. They added almost 17 and a half lakh contracts at one strike in a single day, taking the total past 21 lakh, the single heaviest block near the ATM. That is your support, and remember, it was built yesterday, not last week, so it is fresh conviction money. Below it, 76,500 and 76,000 hold the next support walls, each about 21 lakh. Second, the call writers, the people betting we will stall, stacked their heaviest fresh calls at 77,500, almost 8 lakh added over there, taking it past 15 and a half lakh on the total, the heaviest near-ATM call. And yes, there is bigger standing call open interest further out at 78,000, but that is the resistance for another week, not the number that pins on a 0DTE. So the chain itself draws the box, support at 77,000 with fresh money, resistance at 77,500, and the whole structure is still leaning bullish. 35, meaning more writers are betting on support than on a breakdown. So now the size of today's move, and I'll give it to you in two ways, because they should agree with each other. The ATM straddle, the price of buying both the call and the put together at 77,200, is about 470 points. That is the market's own quote for the day's range. Lay it on the close and the straddle-implied band runs 76,690 on the downside to 77,625 on the upside. Now the second method, the one-standard-deviation statistical envelope, takes the straddle and you get about 585 points, which gives us a band of 76,570 to 77,740. Two methods, two bands that bracket each other, and notice the floor of both land on that 77,000 mark and the 76,500 support, and the roof lands on the 77,500 wall. So the math and the positioning are telling you the same thing, the expiry should resolve between roughly 76,700 and 77,500 unless something snaps it. And here is the piece most people skip, the gamma, which tells you how the day moves, not just where. Think of the big option dealers. Where their gamma is negative, they amplify the tape, they sell into weakness and buy into strength, so moves feed on themselves and the day trends and whips. When it is positive they do the opposite, they pin the tape and the swings die. On the Sensex, the gamma flip level, the hinge, stands at around 77,300. We closed at 77,155, which means we are sitting below the gamma flip level, in negative-gamma territory. That is important on a 0DTE, because below the switch a push lower can run, it can amplify. So only if we reclaim 77,300 do the dealers flip to pin the tape towards that 77,500 mark, else we are going down. And contrast that with the Nifty, which closed at 24,085, above its own gamma flip level that stands around 24,050. So Nifty is in the calm, pinned zone today while the Sensex, the index that actually expires, is in the jumpy, amplified one. That single line, 77,300, is the most important number on your screen today. Underneath all of it, the positioning is the twist. The FII bought cash for the third straight day, a small 179 crore, and the DII bought around 1,700 crore. But in the index futures, the FII is still net short around 2,25,000 contracts. They trimmed it barely by 5,000. A market made a fresh breakout while its biggest player who is short is still holding it. If 77,000 holds today, that short is squeeze fuel. The retail crowd is net long, about 1,57,000 contracts. The proprietary desks are flat. So the whole day is foreign shorts versus retail long across the 77,000 line. So here is the plan, guys, and on a 0DTE expiry sitting below the switch, it is disciplined, not a brave move that we are going to play. While we hold 77,000, the fresh money, the bias stays up, and a reclaim above 77,250 to 77,300, the switch level, flips the dealers to pinning and opens a run towards that 77,500 mark. Lose that 77,000, and because we are in amplified territory, there is an air-pocket straight down to that 76,700 mark first and then 76,500, the next support on the option chain. On the Nifty, we are above the switch, so 24,000 has genuinely flipped from a ceiling to support. If we fall below 24,000, buy that dip towards it, the straddle there frames a band of 23,800 on the downside, that is where the market should take support, to 24,380. Take something off towards that 24,200 to 24,250 range, and the long is wrong only below that 23,900 mark. And size everything down, guys, it is expiry, the Fed has turned, and below the switch the open will be jumpy, there will be sharp moves. The simpler trade is a caution about that low volatility. 5 level, the Sensex implied volatility was also crushed 9% yesterday, and cheap premium on a 0DTE looks like a free lunch. It is not. We are below that gamma switch, which is exactly where a single headline can whip the tape and turn a sold option against you in minutes. So do not sell naked premium into the expiry, and do not chase the opening gap in the first 15 to 30 minutes, let 77,000 or 77,300 prove itself first. So, Thursday in one breath, guys. We hold a real breakout, Nifty over 24,000 and Sensex over 77,000, but the Fed has turned hawkish and today the Sensex expires. The chain draws it cleanly, a support stands at 77,000 with 17 and a half lakh fresh puts, a resistance stands at 77,500 with 8 lakh of fresh calls, and a switch level, a level to watch for, is 77,300. The expected band is 76,600 to 77,650, and the foreign desk is still short into it, so watch that level as well. Below the switch the moves amplify, so respect 77,000, reclaim above 77,250 to 77,300 for the upside, and lose 77,000 and 76,650 to 76,700 is coming very fast. Cheap oil is the cushion, the hawkish Fed is the risk. Call it the Breakout Versus The Fed, below the level. com. Trade the level, not the opinion. So this was The Tanmay Edge. If this helped you guys read the tape and the expiry trading day more clearly, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. Hit that subscribe so you never miss a morning. com, and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music and elsewhere, every trading morning at 8:30. And leave me a rating, guys, I read every single one of them. I'm waiting for your reviews. Have a great trading day, guys, and a happy expiry. See you once again tomorrow. Questions ## EP63, in plain words. What does EP63 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP63, Thursday 18 Jun 2026, 12:21, in 8 chapters: Cold open: a real breakout meets a hawkish Fed; The tape we are defending: Sensex 77,155, Nifty first close over 24,000; The overhang: Fed held but turned hawkish, India shrugs; Reading the Sensex 0DTE chain: 77,000 floor, 77,500 roof; The size of the move: straddle 470, both bands agree; The gamma switch: 77,300 is the number today; Positioning: foreign short versus retail long across 77,000; The plan and the grade: respect 77,000, reclaim 77,300, size down. How did the calls in EP63 score?Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 5 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 19 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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