--- title: "Sensex Expiry Tomorrow. The Fed Tonight. | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Yesterday the number everyone watched finally gave way. 24,000. Four times this market ran at it and four times it got thrown back. On the fifth try Nifty" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-17" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP62 # Sensex expiry tomorrow. The Fed tonight. 24,000 held Nifty 23,989.15 plus 135.25 plus 0.57 percent * **10:46**listen * **4.5/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 17 Jun 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Sensex expiry tomorrow. The Fed tonight. 24,000 held EP62, 17 Jun, 10:46 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:46 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4.5/5 at settlement. **4.5/5**90% **The call.** Sensex Expiry Setup Fed Night * **4**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded the next trading day, 18 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Hit**the sectors call, IT and defence led with TRENT and BEL while private financials AXIS KOTAK and the Bajaj twins dragged. The Fed risk line scores N A, it was an overnight overhang not a measurable intraday call. Four hits and one partial equals 4.5 out of 5, another clean read. 2. **Hit**the sectors call, IT and defence led with TRENT and BEL while private financials AXIS KOTAK and the Bajaj twins dragged. The Fed risk line scores N A, it was an overnight overhang not a measurable intraday call. Four hits and one partial equals 4.5 out of 5, another clean read. 3. **Hit**the sectors call, IT and defence led with TRENT and BEL while private financials AXIS KOTAK and the Bajaj twins dragged. The Fed risk line scores N A, it was an overnight overhang not a measurable intraday call. Four hits and one partial equals 4.5 out of 5, another clean read. 4. **Hit**the sectors call, IT and defence led with TRENT and BEL while private financials AXIS KOTAK and the Bajaj twins dragged. The Fed risk line scores N A, it was an overnight overhang not a measurable intraday call. Four hits and one partial equals 4.5 out of 5, another clean read. 5. **Hit**the sectors call, IT and defence led with TRENT and BEL while private financials AXIS KOTAK and the Bajaj twins dragged. The Fed risk line scores N A, it was an overnight overhang not a measurable intraday call. Four hits and one partial equals 4.5 out of 5, another clean read. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[June 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-06/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 2. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 3. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 4. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 5. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 6. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 7. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 8. **08**The plan and the grade: buy dips, size downThe plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to Cold open: 24,000 finally held on the fifth try **24,002**Try Nifty pushed A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the number everyone was watching finally gave way. 24,000. Four times this market had run at it and four times it got thrown back. On the fifth try Nifty pushed to 24,002 and, for the first time, it did not run away, it Read the chapter Yesterday's tape: IT leadership flipped, Sensex up 544 **76,808**Sensex closed **544 points**Sensex closed **3.6 percent**First, HCL Tech **23,989**Same wave The Sensex closed 76,808, up 544 points, three quarters of a percent, and the leadership flipped hard. The IT pack, dead last on Monday, was suddenly first, HCL Tech up 3.6 percent, dragging the index up alongside the heavyweight financials and Reliance. Nifty Read the chapter The Sensex expiry box: 76,500 floor, 77,000 roof **76,808**Market is sitting **76,500**Heaviest support **9.5**Piled almost **77,000**Writers sit thickest Here is the Sensex expiry picture, and it is a textbook pinning setup. The market is sitting at 76,808 and the option writers have drawn a clean box around it. Below us, the put writers, the people betting we hold, have stacked their heaviest support at Read the chapter The two numbers for tomorrow: straddle 645, hinge 76,850 **76,160**Implied band runs roughly **77,450**Band runs roughly **660 points**Identical envelope **76,850**Gamma flip The at the money straddle on the Sensex, the market's own price tag for the move, is about 645 points. Lay that on the close and the straddle implied band runs roughly 76,160 to 77,450, that is where the option market expects this to settle by expiry. Run the Read the chapter Nifty on the magnet: 24,000 both Wall and floor **24,000**Sit on one brick **65 lakh**Same strike **54 lakh**Strike, lakh calls **1.03**Put call ratio On the next weekly both walls sit on one brick, 24,000, the heaviest written calls and the heaviest written puts in the whole market piled on the same strike, 65 lakh calls and 54 lakh puts. When one number is both the biggest resistance and the biggest Read the chapter Positioning: FII buys cash but stays short futures **384 crore**Day in cash, another **2.3**Still short roughly **1152 crore**Domestic funds sold The positioning underneath says the trend is still up. The foreign desk bought a second straight day in cash, another 384 crore, after two full weeks as the only seller in the building. But here is the part most people miss, in the futures that same desk is Read the chapter Overnight and sectors: Nasdaq red, watch IT first **1.15 percent**Slept, the Nasdaq fell **94.56**Rupee is firm **24,009**Flat open right The overnight tape is the complication. The same Wall Street that lifted us turned around while we slept, the Nasdaq fell 1.15 percent, the S&P slipped half a percent, both rolling over ahead of tonight's Fed. So the IT pack that did all the heavy lifting Read the chapter The plan and the grade: buy dips, size down into the Fed **76,500**Sensex, the box **76,900**Expiry, clean move **77,000**Clean move over opens **77,500**Opens and squeeze toward The plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 77,000 and the hinge is 76,850. While we hold above 76,500 the bias is up into expiry, a clean move over 76,900 opens 77,000 and a squeeze toward 77,500. Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: 24,000 finally held on the fifth try A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the number everyone was watching finally gave way. 24,000. Four times this market had run at it and four times it got thrown back. On the fifth try Nifty pushed to 24,002 and, for the first time, it did not run away, it closed on the number at 23,989. A foothold, at last. But park that win for a second, because the real action is the next two sunrises. Tonight, after we have gone home, the United States Federal Reserve sets interest rates. And tomorrow the Sensex expires. So today is not the main event, today is the setup, the quiet board you arrange your pieces on before the storm. ### *02*Yesterday's tape: IT leadership flipped, Sensex up 544 The Sensex closed 76,808, up 544 points, three quarters of a percent, and the leadership flipped hard. The IT pack, dead last on Monday, was suddenly first, HCL Tech up 3.6 percent, dragging the index up alongside the heavyweight financials and Reliance. Nifty rode the same wave to 23,989, up 135 points, thirty stocks up and twenty down, powered by Wall Street's Monday surge finally washing onto our screens. That tape built the board for the Sensex expiry. ### *03*The Sensex expiry box: 76,500 floor, 77,000 roof Here is the Sensex expiry picture, and it is a textbook pinning setup. The market is sitting at 76,808 and the option writers have drawn a clean box around it. Below us, the put writers, the people betting we hold, have stacked their heaviest support at 76,500, the single biggest block on the board, and they piled almost 9.5 lakh fresh contracts onto it yesterday alone. That is a floor with conviction. Above us, the call writers sit thickest at 77,000 and then 77,500. So the expiry box is 76,500 on the floor, 77,000 on the roof. The put call ratio for the whole Sensex chain is 1.44, a bullish tilt, more put writers than call writers means the bigger money is betting on support, not breakdown. ### *04*The two numbers for tomorrow: straddle 645, hinge 76,850 The at the money straddle on the Sensex, the market's own price tag for the move, is about 645 points. Lay that on the close and the straddle implied band runs roughly 76,160 to 77,450, that is where the option market expects this to settle by expiry. Run the one standard deviation math on the volatility and you get almost the identical envelope, about 660 points either side. Two different methods, same answer, and that agreement is what gives the level confidence. Inside that band sits the switch, the gamma flip, near 76,850, just above where we closed. Below that line the big desks amplify every move, a push lower feeds on itself. Above it they flip to pinning the tape and the swings die down. We closed at 76,808, sitting right under the hinge. ### *05*Nifty on the magnet: 24,000 both Wall and floor On the next weekly both walls sit on one brick, 24,000, the heaviest written calls and the heaviest written puts in the whole market piled on the same strike, 65 lakh calls and 54 lakh puts. When one number is both the biggest resistance and the biggest support, the desks expect it to behave like a magnet. The put call ratio is 1.03, dead neutral, the straddle about 326, a band of 23,663 to 24,315, and the gamma flip sits right at 24,000 too, exactly where we are standing. So both of our indices are balanced on their hinges into a Fed night. That is not a coincidence. That is a market holding its breath. ### *06*Positioning: FII buys cash but stays short futures The positioning underneath says the trend is still up. The foreign desk bought a second straight day in cash, another 384 crore, after two full weeks as the only seller in the building. But here is the part most people miss, in the futures that same desk is still short roughly 2.3 lakh index contracts. They are buying shares and still holding a big short. The cover is real but unfinished, and an unfinished short underneath a market is exactly the fuel that powers the next leg if these walls give way. The domestic funds sold 1152 crore, and the retail crowd is sitting net long. ### *07*Overnight and sectors: Nasdaq red, watch IT first The overnight tape is the complication. The same Wall Street that lifted us turned around while we slept, the Nasdaq fell 1.15 percent, the S&P slipped half a percent, both rolling over ahead of tonight's Fed. So the IT pack that did all the heavy lifting yesterday is staring at a red overnight, and that is your first tell at the open. Everything else is friendly, Brent crude slid to 79 dollars, the rupee is firm at 94.56, and GIFT Nifty points to a flat open right at 24,009. So the sectors are clear. IT is yesterday's leader and tonight's question mark, watch HCL Tech and TCS in the first hour. The financials, the Bajaj twins and the private banks, need to hold for any push higher. On the weak side autos, metals and PSU banks lagged, so Maruti, Tata Steel and State Bank are where the leak shows first if the tape rolls over. ### *08*The plan and the grade: buy dips, size down into the Fed The plan today is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the box is 76,500 to 77,000 and the hinge is 76,850. While we hold above 76,500 the bias is up into expiry, a clean move over 76,900 opens 77,000 and a squeeze toward 77,500. Lose 76,500 and support breaks toward 76,000. On the Nifty, do not chase 24,000, we are right on the flip, buy the dip into 23,900 down to 23,800 while it holds, take something off into 24,100 then 24,200, and the long idea is wrong only below 23,650. The simpler trade is a warning about volatility. India VIX collapsed almost 7 percent to 13.36, and cheap premium on a Fed day is not a free lunch, it is cheap because the move happens tonight, after the bell, when you cannot trade it. Do not sell naked premium into a central bank, and do not buy the breakout before the event that decides it. Episode 61 graded 4.5 out of 5, one of our cleanest reads, full scorecard on rupeecase.com. Trade the level, not the opinion. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty 23,989.15 plus 135.25 plus 0.57 percent * *02*Open 23,923.90 high 24,002.60 low 23,888.20 adv 30 dec 20 * *03*Closed on 24,000 for the first time after four rejections * *04*Sensex 76,808.48 plus 544.15 plus 0.71 percent high 76,846.74 * *05*IT pack flipped from worst Monday to first HCLTECH plus 3.6 percent * *06*India VIX 13.36 down 6.89 percent * *07*Sensex expiry box 76,500 floor 77,000 roof hinge 76,850 * *08*Sensex 76,500 put max OI 15,33,940 plus 9,52,200 fresh * *09*Sensex calls 77,000 8,61,660 and 77,500 7,91,220 * *10*Sensex PCR 1.44 put OI 2,71,25,660 call OI 1,88,53,320 * *11*Sensex straddle 645 band 76,160 to 77,450 * *12*One SD envelope about 660 either side agrees with the straddle * *13*Nifty 24,000 max call OI 65 lakh and max put OI 54 lakh same strike * *14*Nifty PCR 1.03 straddle 326 band 23,663 to 24,315 * *15*Nifty gamma flip at 24,000 thirty June future 24,001 basis plus 12 * *16*FII cash plus 383.79 crore second straight buy day * *17*FII still net short about 2.30 lakh index futures long 39,125 short 2,68,725 * *18*DII sold 1151.67 crore Client net long plus 1.63 lakh * *19*Nasdaq down 1.15 percent S&P down 0.57 percent rolled over pre Fed * *20*GIFT 24,009.50 Brent 79.01 WTI 76.09 rupee 94.56 Gold 4340 Show all 20 05In his words On the fifth try Nifty pushed to 24,002 and, for the first time, it did not run away, it closed on the number at 23,989. A foothold, at last. So today is not the main event, today is the setup, the quiet board you arrange your pieces on before the storm. When one number is both the biggest resistance and the biggest support, the desks expect it to behave like a magnet. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,326 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. Yesterday the number everyone was watching finally gave way. 24,000. Four times this market had run at it and four times it had been thrown back. On the fifth try Nifty pushed to 24,002 and, for the first time, it did not run away, it closed on the number at 23989, at last. Park that win for a second, because the real action is the next two sunrises. Tonight, after we have gone home, the United States Federal Reserve sets interest rates, and tomorrow the Sensex expiry is there. So today is not the main event. Today is the setup, the setup that is going to happen for tomorrow, the quiet board you arrange your pieces on before the storm begins. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 62. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Let's start with yesterday's tape, because it built the board for the Sensex expiry that is happening tomorrow. The Sensex closed at 76808, up 544 points, and the leadership flipped hard. 6 percent, dragging the index up alongside the heavyweight financials and Reliance. Nifty rode the same wave, 23989, up 135 points, 30 stocks up and 20 down, powered by Wall Street's Monday surge finally washing onto our screens. Now let's read the expiry board it left behind. So here is the Sensex expiry picture, we are going to see a pinning setup tomorrow. The market is sitting at 76,808 and the option writers have drawn a clean box around it. Below us, the put writers, the people betting we hold, have stacked their heaviest support at 76,500. 5 lakh fresh contracts onto it yesterday alone. That is the floor with conviction. Above us, the call writers, the people betting we stall or we don't go higher than that, are standing at 77,000 and 77,500. So the expiry box is 76,500 on the support side, 77,000 on the upside. 44, and that is a bullish tilt. More put writers than call writers means the bigger money is betting on support, not the breakdown. Now the two numbers that matter most for tomorrow's expiry. The at-the-money straddle on the Sensex, the market's own price tag for the move, is about 645 points. The band runs roughly 76,100 on the downside to 77,500 on the upside, that is where the option market expects the settlement to happen. Run the one-standard-deviation math on the volatility and you get an almost identical envelope, about 660 points either side. Two different methods, same answer, and that agreement is what gives the level confidence. And inside that band sits the switch, the gamma flip level, near 76,850. That is the level you have to watch, just above where we closed. Below that line the big desks amplify every move, a push lower feeds on itself, so any drop below 76,850 should be a trending move, and the move should take support around 76,500 with fresh conviction, 77,000 on the upside. So now the Nifty, quickly, because it sets the tone even without an expiry. On the next weekly both walls sit on one brick, 24000, the heaviest calls and the heaviest puts in the whole market piled on the same strike, 65 lakh of calls and 54 lakh of puts. When one number is both the biggest resistance and the biggest support, the desks expect it to behave like a magnet. 03, almost neutral. The straddle is about 326, a band of 23,663 on the downside to 24,300 on the upside, and the gamma flip level sits at 24000, exactly where we are opening. So both our indices are balanced on their hinges into the Fed night. That is not a coincidence. That is a market holding its breath. The positioning underneath says the trend is still up, we are still on buy-on-dips. The foreign desk bought a second straight day in cash, another 384 crore, after two full weeks as the only seller in the building. 3 lakh index contracts. They are buying shares and still holding a big short. The cover is real but unfinished, and an unfinished short underneath a market is exactly the fuel that powers the next leg if these walls give way. The domestic funds sold 1152 crore, and the retail crowd is sitting net long. The overnight tape is the complication. 15 percent, the S&P slipped half a percent, both rolling over ahead of tonight's Fed move. So the IT pack that did all the heavy lifting yesterday is staring at a red overnight, and that is your first tell at the open. 56, and GIFT Nifty points to a flat open right now at 24009, sitting on that round number. So the sectors to watch today are clear. First, IT, yesterday's leader and tonight's question mark. With the Nasdaq red overnight, if our IT names hand back gains the whole index loses its engine, so watch HCL Tech and TCS in the first hour. Second, the financials, because those are the leaders, Bajaj twins and the private banks, they are the real weights in both indices and they need to hold for any push higher. Third, on the weak side, the sectors that lagged yesterday, autos, metals and PSU banks, Maruti, Tata Steel and State Bank were all red, so that is where the leak shows up first if the tape rolls over. So here is the plan, and today it is patient and small, because the events are not today. On the Sensex, the expiry box is 76,500 to 77,000 and the hinge is 76850, that is the gamma flip. While we hold above 76,500 the bias is up into the expiry, and a clean move over 76,900 opens the door to 77,000 and 77,500. Lose 76500, the floor with all the fresh put writing, and the support breaks towards that 76,100 to 76,200 mark. On the Nifty, do not chase 24000, we are right on the flip where the tape whips both ways. Instead, buy the dip into 23,900 down towards 23,800 while it holds, take something off into 24,100 to 24150, because after that we would directly see 24,500. The long idea is wrong only below 23,650; till then we hold the buy-on-dip strategy. And size everything down, because there is a Fed at midnight and a Sensex expiry at sunrise. The simpler trade is really a warning about volatility. 36, and cheap premium on a Fed day looks like a free lunch. It is not. It is cheap because the move everyone is waiting for happens tonight, after the bell, when you cannot trade. Do not sell naked premium into a central bank, and do not buy the breakout before the event that decides it. Let tonight happen first, then trade tomorrow's expiry with the answer in hand. The honest risk is the Fed and the IT pack. If Wall Street's overnight rollover carries into our session and IT stalls, 24,000 caps and 24,100 becomes the first resistance. A market balanced on two pivots into one big night. Respect it. So, Wednesday in one breath, guys. Nifty finally closed on 24,000 instead of running from it, the foreign buyer is back but still short underneath, and both indices are coiled on their gamma flip levels, the Fed tonight tells the tale for tomorrow's expiry. The Sensex box is clear, 76,500 to 77500, hinge at 76,850. For Nifty it is 24,000 with support around 23,900. 5 out of 5, one of the cleanest reads. com. If this helped you read the tape more clearly, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. Hit that subscribe button so you never miss a morning. com, and on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. And leave a rating, guys, I read every single one of them. I am waiting for your reviews. Have a great trading day, guys, and see you all once again tomorrow at the Sensex expiry. Bye. Questions ## EP62, in plain words. What does EP62 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP62, Wednesday 17 Jun 2026, 10:46, in 8 chapters: Cold open: 24,000 finally held on the fifth try; Yesterday's tape: IT leadership flipped, Sensex up 544; The Sensex expiry box: 76,500 floor, 77,000 roof; The two numbers for tomorrow: straddle 645, hinge 76,850; Nifty on the magnet: 24,000 both Wall and floor; Positioning: FII buys cash but stays short futures; Overnight and sectors: Nasdaq red, watch IT first; The plan and the grade: buy dips, size down into the Fed. How did the calls in EP62 score?Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 18 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. 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