--- title: "Gaps Up Into The Ceiling. 23,500 Decides | The Tanmay Edge" description: "At 3:30 on Thursday the Sensex expiry settled at 73,832, after the 73,500 cushion held its first test by just 19 points. The board went quiet for the week." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-12" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP59 # Gaps up into the ceiling. 23,500 decides Sensex expiry settled 73,832, the 73,500 cushion held by 19 points at 73,519 * **11:02**listen * **2.5/5**graded at settlement * **Fri 12 Jun 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Gaps up into the ceiling. 23,500 decides EP59, 12 Jun, 11:02 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes11:02 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 2.5/5 at settlement. **2.5/5**50% **The call.** Post Expiry Gap Up * **1**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **2**Miss Graded the next trading day, 15 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's split does not sum to the score denominator; both are shown as recorded. 1. **Miss**the noon sell premium box, price squeezed out through 23,500 in the last 90 minutes though the VIX did crush to 14.72. Two conditionals on Brent and a sub 23,200 gap trap never triggered. On air called 3 of 5, data strict 2.5 of 5. The too aggressive cover number is the exact setup for EP60. 2. **Miss**the noon sell premium box, price squeezed out through 23,500 in the last 90 minutes though the VIX did crush to 14.72. Two conditionals on Brent and a sub 23,200 gap trap never triggered. On air called 3 of 5, data strict 2.5 of 5. The too aggressive cover number is the exact setup for EP60. 3. **Miss**the noon sell premium box, price squeezed out through 23,500 in the last 90 minutes though the VIX did crush to 14.72. Two conditionals on Brent and a sub 23,200 gap trap never triggered. On air called 3 of 5, data strict 2.5 of 5. The too aggressive cover number is the exact setup for EP60. 4. **Miss**the noon sell premium box, price squeezed out through 23,500 in the last 90 minutes though the VIX did crush to 14.72. Two conditionals on Brent and a sub 23,200 gap trap never triggered. On air called 3 of 5, data strict 2.5 of 5. The too aggressive cover number is the exact setup for EP60. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[June 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-06/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The 2. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The 3. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The 4. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The 5. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The 6. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The 7. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The 8. **08**Lesson and risk: the weekend math of aThe simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The Cold open: then, overnight, the world ripped **73,832**Sensex expiry settled **19 points**Cushion at held **250 points**Gap up of roughly **2,67,000**Open short A very good morning, guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex expiry settled at 73,832, the cushion at 73,500 held by 19 points, and the board went quiet for the week. Then, overnight, the world ripped. Korea up 7.77 percent in a single session. Japan up 3.8. The Read the chapter Scorecard: eP58 graded 3.5 of 4 **3.5**Episode graded **73,500**Gradeable calls **19 points**First test by exactly Episode 58 graded 3.5 out of 4 gradeable calls, the 73,500 cushion held its first test by exactly 19 points. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com. Read the chapter Thursday's tape: the cushion script, then the trap **73,519**Opened at tested **74,394**Tested held, climbed **560 points**Two hours got sold **73,832**Points, to settle Expiry day followed the cushion script. We opened at 73,616, tested 73,519, held, climbed to 74,394 by lunch, and then the last two hours got sold, 560 points, to settle at 73,832, between the cushion and the magnet. Nifty drew the same shape: low 23,072, high Read the chapter The desks: day five, tip toeing **2 percent**Contracts again **2,67,000**Stayed net short **2,77,000**Off their peak **10,000**Have released barely Same twist as all week, fifth day running. The foreign desk covered about 5000 contracts again, under 2 percent, and stayed net short 2,67,000 index futures. Off their peak of 2,77,000 on Monday they have released barely 10,000. That is not covering, that is Read the chapter Overnight: somebody flipped the table **2.54 percent**Stocks, bounced **7.77 percent**Seoul went vertical **3.8**Tokyo added **1.5**Hong Kong The Nasdaq, which spent two days wrecking our IT stocks, bounced 2.54 percent. Seoul went vertical, up 7.77 percent in one session. Tokyo added 3.8, Taiwan 2.6, Hong Kong 1.5. Crude cracked under 90, Brent at 89.25, the war premium fully unwound. And GIFT Read the chapter The board: a ceiling at 23,500, a springboard at 23,200 **23,400**Holds lakh contracts **23,500**Lakh contracts, holds **72 lakh**Whole board **23,100**Lakh fresh puts The sellers spent Wednesday and Thursday cementing a ceiling above us. At 23,200 they added 27 lakh fresh calls just yesterday. 23,300 holds 58 lakh contracts, 23,400 holds 54, and 23,500 is the biggest block on the whole board, 72 lakh written calls. The gap Read the chapter The plan: three steps **23,300**First minutes hold above **23,200**Hour back below **23,450**Open spikes straight **23,500**Spikes straight One, if the first 30 minutes hold above 23,300, you buy the dips, not the pops. Dips into 23,300 to 23,250 are the entries, the target is the 23,500 ceiling, and the trade is wrong the moment we spend half an hour back below 23,200. Two, if the open spikes Read the chapter Lesson and risk: the weekend math of a crowded short **301 points**Tuesday closed **2,67,000**Foreign desk is short **25,000**Real covering, more **23,400**Fuel above The simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The gap will fatten the call side at the open. Do not buy that excitement. If the box sets by noon, Friday afternoon belongs to the premium sellers Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: then, overnight, the world ripped A very good morning, guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex expiry settled at 73,832, the cushion at 73,500 held by 19 points, and the board went quiet for the week. Then, overnight, the world ripped. Korea up 7.77 percent in a single session. Japan up 3.8. The Nasdaq bounced two and a half percent. And GIFT Nifty is pointing at a gap up of roughly 250 points, straight into the ceiling our option sellers spent two days cementing. One desk walks into this open short 2,67,000 futures contracts, with a weekend to carry. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 59. ### *02*Scorecard: eP58 graded 3.5 of 4 Episode 58 graded 3.5 out of 4 gradeable calls, the 73,500 cushion held its first test by exactly 19 points. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com. ### *03*Thursday's tape: the cushion script, then the trap Expiry day followed the cushion script. We opened at 73,616, tested 73,519, held, climbed to 74,394 by lunch, and then the last two hours got sold, 560 points, to settle at 73,832, between the cushion and the magnet. Nifty drew the same shape: low 23,072, high 23,327, close 23,161, down 53. The index looks calm. Underneath, it was anything but. 992 stocks advanced, 2439 declined. IT dropped 1.6, Infosys down 2.7, because Wall Street's tech wreck was still echoing. Banks held flat, ICICI up 1.9, Media popped 1.8. The rupee slipped to 95.76, its weakest in over a year. Volatility slept through all of it, VIX at 15.6, dead flat. ### *04*The desks: day five, tip toeing Same twist as all week, fifth day running. The foreign desk covered about 5000 contracts again, under 2 percent, and stayed net short 2,67,000 index futures. Off their peak of 2,77,000 on Monday they have released barely 10,000. That is not covering, that is tip toeing. They sold another 2249 crore of cash stock on top. The domestic institutions bought 4365 crore against them, the twelfth straight buying day. The proprietary desks are nearly flat in futures, around 11,000 long, with options stacked on both sides, paid if the market moves big either way, no view on which. And retail is still long 2 lakh futures and short 7.7 lakh index puts. That is the table everyone left on Thursday evening. ### *05*Overnight: somebody flipped the table The Nasdaq, which spent two days wrecking our IT stocks, bounced 2.54 percent. Seoul went vertical, up 7.77 percent in one session. Tokyo added 3.8, Taiwan 2.6, Hong Kong 1.5. Crude cracked under 90, Brent at 89.25, the war premium fully unwound. And GIFT Nifty sits near 23,478 against our futures close of 23,200. That is a gap up of roughly 250 points, an open somewhere near 23,400. ### *06*The board: a ceiling at 23,500, a springboard at 23,200 The sellers spent Wednesday and Thursday cementing a ceiling above us. At 23,200 they added 27 lakh fresh calls just yesterday. 23,300 holds 58 lakh contracts, 23,400 holds 54, and 23,500 is the biggest block on the whole board, 72 lakh written calls. The gap clears the first two shelves and lands inside that ceiling. Underneath, the put writers marched up: 26 lakh fresh puts at 23,100 and 24 lakh at 23,000, which now holds 70 lakh, the foundation. The box reads 23,000 to 23,500, and the world just shoved us into its top floor. One line matters more than the rest: 23,200. That was the lid all week, and a gap through a lid turns it into a springboard. As long as we trade above 23,200, the options machinery absorbs moves and the day stays orderly. Back below it, the same machinery speeds the fall. And 23,500 is the test of the day, because 72 lakh written calls do not step aside politely on first knock. ### *07*The plan: three steps One, if the first 30 minutes hold above 23,300, you buy the dips, not the pops. Dips into 23,300 to 23,250 are the entries, the target is the 23,500 ceiling, and the trade is wrong the moment we spend half an hour back below 23,200. Two, if the open spikes straight into 23,450 to 23,500 in the first hour, that is where you sell the rise, because the sellers defend that block on first test. Chasing a breakout long? Only above 23,500, and only after it holds for a 15 to 30 minute window. Then 23,600 and 23,700 open up, with 60 lakh contracts parked at each. Three, if the gap fails and we close back under 23,200 for half an hour, the morning was a trap, and 23,100 then 23,000 come fast. ### *08*Lesson and risk: the weekend math of a crowded short The simpler trade sits in the option prices. The at the money straddle for Tuesday closed at 301 points. The gap will fatten the call side at the open. Do not buy that excitement. If the box sets by noon, Friday afternoon belongs to the premium sellers, because an option sold on Friday collects Saturday and Sunday for free. And the lesson. The foreign desk is short 2,67,000 index futures contracts. A 250 point gap against a short is marked to market tonight, the loss leaves their account this evening whether they exit or not. Hold through the weekend and Monday can gap again before they can react. Real covering, more than 25,000 contracts, is the tell, and it is fuel above 23,400. The honest risk is the gap itself. A 250 point gift at the open is also 250 points of air below your entry. Crude at 89 helps us. The rupee at 95.76 does not, the currency is not confirming the party. Respect both. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Sensex expiry settled 73,832, the 73,500 cushion held by 19 points at 73,519 * *02*Expiry day opened 73,616, lunch high 74,394, last 2 hours sold 560 points * *03*Nifty low 23,072, high 23,327, close 23,161 down 53 * *04*Breadth 992 advanced vs 2439 declined under a calm index * *05*IT down 1.6, Infosys down 2.7, banks flat, ICICI up 1.9, media up 1.8 * *06*Rupee 95.76 weakest in over a year, VIX dead flat 15.6 * *07*FII covered about 5000 day 5, still net short 2,67,000 index futures * *08*Off the 2,77,000 Monday peak barely 10,000 released * *09*FII sold 2249 crore cash, DII bought 4365 crore, 12th straight buying day * *10*Pro desks near flat at 11,000 long futures, options both sides * *11*Clients long 2 lakh futures, short 7.7 lakh index puts * *12*Overnight Korea up 7.77, Japan 3.8, Taiwan 2.6, Hong Kong 1.5, Nasdaq 2.54 * *13*Brent cracked under 90 to 89.25, war premium unwound * *14*GIFT 23,478 vs futures close 23,200, gap up about 250 points, open near 23,400 * *15*27 lakh fresh calls added at 23,200, 23,300 holds 58 lakh, 23,400 holds 54 lakh * *16*23,500 biggest block on the board with 72 lakh written calls * *17*Support 26 lakh fresh puts at 23,100, 23,000 now holds 70 lakh * *18*Springboard 23,200, orderly above it, amplified below it * *19*Plan: above 23,300 buy dips to 23,300 23,250, sell first rise into 23,450 23,500 * *20*Tuesday ATM straddle 301, box by noon = afternoon sell premium window, FII cover over 25,000 = fuel above 23,400 Show all 20 05In his words Then, overnight, the world ripped. That is not covering, that is tip toeing. A gap through a lid turns it into a springboard. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,345 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex expired and settled at 73,832. The cushion at 73,500 held by 19 points and the board went quiet for the week. Then overnight the world ripped. 7 percent in a single session. 8 percent. 5 percent. And GIFT Nifty is pointing towards a gap up of roughly 250 points, straight into our resistance. Our option sellers spent two days cementing that resistance. One desk walks into the open short of 2,67,000 contracts with a weekend carry. So this is the brief for today's episode. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 59. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So before we proceed guys, a quick scorecard about yesterday. 5 out of 4. 73,500 held, 73,900 was the expiry, it happened exactly over there. com. Now Thursday's tape, because it sets the trap for the week as well. Expiry day followed the cushion script. We opened at 73,616 yesterday, tested that 73,519, held that 73,500, and climbed to 74,394 by lunch. And then in the last 2 hours we got sold once again, 560 points, to settle at 73,832, because the cushion and the magnet was present. Nifty drew the same shape. Low of 23,072, high of 23,327, and close at 23,161, down just 53 points. The index looked completely calm. Underneath, it wasn't anything but. 992 stocks advanced, 2,439 declined. 7 percent, because Wall Street's tech wreck was still echoing. 8 percent positive. 76, its weakest over this last 10 days. 6, where the VIX is trading right now. But the same twist as all week, fifth day running into. The FIIs covered just about 5,000 contracts, under 2 percent, and stayed net short about 2,67,000 index futures, off their peak of 2,77,000 on Monday. They have just covered barely 10,000 contracts. They sold another 2,249 crore of cash on top of it yesterday as well, and the DIIs bought 4,365 crore cash against them. The proprietary desks are nearly flat in futures, around 11,000 long contracts they are holding, with options stacked on both sides, that is they are long calls, long puts, paid if the market moves big either way, no view on the direction. And the retail? 7 lakh index puts. That is the table everyone left on Thursday evening. But let's look at today. And overnight, what happened overnight? Somebody flipped it. 54 percent on back of Iran again closing its ceasefire. 7 percent in one session. 8 percent. 6 percent. 5 percent. Crude has cracked under 90. 25. The war premium fully unwound. And the GIFT Nifty sits comfortably at 23,478 against our futures close of 23,200. That is a gap up of roughly 250 points and an open somewhere near that 23,400 mark. Now let's lay the open on the options board and you see why today matters. The sellers spent Wednesday and Thursday cementing a resistance above us. At 23,200 they added 27 lakh fresh calls just yesterday. 23,300 holds 58 lakh contracts. 23,400 holds 54 lakh contracts. And 23,500, that is the biggest resistance, having 72 lakh call contracts written over there. The gap clears the first two levels easily and lands inside that ceiling. Underneath we have some support as well. 26 lakh fresh puts were present at 23,100, and 24 lakh fresh puts were present at 23,000 as well, which now holds a cumulative of 70 lakh written. So that is the support for sure. So the box they built for Tuesday's expiry, that is next week, was 23,000 to 23,500. The world has just shoved us, and we are opening towards the upper end of the box. One line matters more than the rest: 23,200. That was the flip level. A gap through a lid turns into a springboard. In plain words, as long as we trade above that 23,200 mark, the options machinery absorbs moves and the day stays orderly. Back below it, and the same machinery speeds the fall into a slowing and grinding down move. But currently we are staying above 23,200, and 23,500 is the test of the day, because 72 lakh contracts of calls have been written over there. So the plan is basically in three steps. One, if the first 30 minutes hold in above 23,300, you buy the dips, not the pop-up that is happening in the morning, but the dips towards that 23,300 mark are the entries. The target is easily 23,500, that is the ceiling. And the trade is wrong the moment we spend half an hour back below that 23,250 or 23,200 level. Two, if the open spikes straight into 23,450 to 23,500 in the first hour, that is where you sell the rise, sell the bounce, because the sellers will defend the first test of 23,500. Chasing the breakout long? Only if 23,500 is broken and it holds for 15 to 30 minutes, keep a watch on that. Then it is open till 23,700, with 60 lakh contracts parked over there. Three, if the gap fails and we close back under 23,200 for half an hour, the morning trap was set and we are back to that 23,000 grinding level. But that looks unlikely today. So the simpler trade sits in the option prices. The ATM straddle for Tuesday closed at almost 300 rupees, the call plus put together, the market's own price for the move. The gap will fatten up the call side at the open. Do not buy that excitement. If the box sets by noon, Friday afternoon belongs to premium sellers, because an option sold on Friday collects Saturday and Sunday's time value as well. So options lose a little value every day even when nothing happens, and the weekend is those two days where the quietness can come in. And today's lesson, the weekend math of a crowded short is what we are going to speak about. The foreign desk is short 2,67,000 index futures contracts. A 250 point gap up against a short is marked to market tonight. In plain words, the losses leave their account whether they exit or hold it. Hold through the weekend, and Monday can gap up again before they can react. That is why Friday's gap up against a crowded short is dangerous. The position bleeds today and exits are narrowly present. Real covering, more than 25,000 contracts, is what we are watching for today, and the fuel will happen if we stay above that 23,400 mark. And that is what the expectation is today, they will cover at least 25 to 30,000 contracts on today's trading day. Tonight's number will tell you what actually happens. The honest risk is the gap up itself. A 250 point gap at the open is also 250 points of air below your entry. Crude at 89 helps us a lot. 76 does not. The currency is not confirming the party. But let's look at how it opens at 9 AM. So Friday in one breath guys. The world has ripped up today morning. We open near 23,400, inside the resistance capped by 72 lakh calls that are present at 23,500, standing on a springboard above that 23,200 mark. Above 23,300, we buy the dips and sell them at 23,500. Above 23,500, we go heavily long towards that 23,700 and 24,000 mark. And the short desk starts bleeding at 9:15. Call it the 23,200 Springboard. 23,500 is the resistance. Trade the level, not the opinion. This was The Tanmay Edge, guys. If this helped you see the tape more clearly, share it with one person who trades and who needs it right now. Hit that subscribe button so you never miss a morning podcast, on Apple, Spotify or other streaming sites as well. com, where it goes live for the first session every trading morning at 8:30. And leave me a rating guys, I read every single one of them and I am waiting for your reviews. Have a great trading day and a very happy weekend. See you once again on Monday morning. Questions ## EP59, in plain words. What does EP59 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP59, Friday 12 Jun 2026, 11:02, in 8 chapters: Cold open: then, overnight, the world ripped; Scorecard: eP58 graded 3.5 of 4; Thursday's tape: the cushion script, then the trap; The desks: day five, tip toeing; Overnight: somebody flipped the table; The board: a ceiling at 23,500, a springboard at 23,200; The plan: three steps; Lesson and risk: the weekend math of a crowded short. How did the calls in EP59 score?Grade 2.5/5 (50 percent): 1 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 2 miss. Graded the next trading day, 15 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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