--- title: "Expiry Gaps Down Onto The Cushion. 73,500 | The Tanmay Edge" description: "At 3:30 on Wednesday the Sensex settled just 17 points from 74,000, the most loaded strike on its board, with its own weekly expiry due this morning. A" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-11" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP58 # Expiry gaps down onto the cushion. 73,500 decides Nifty closed 23,215 down 27, Sensex closed 73,983 up 64 * **10:09**listen * **3.5/4**graded at settlement * **Thu 11 Jun 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Expiry gaps down onto the cushion. 73,500 decides EP58, 11 Jun, 10:09 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:09 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 3.5/4 at settlement. **3.5/4**88% **The call.** Sensex Weekly Expiry 0DTE * **3**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded the next trading day, 12 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Partial**the cushion magnet call, 73,500 held its first test by 19 points but 73,900 was never reclaimed in the window. Two conditionals never triggered. Script graded it three and a half of four gradeable. 2. **Partial**the cushion magnet call, 73,500 held its first test by 19 points but 73,900 was never reclaimed in the window. Two conditionals never triggered. Script graded it three and a half of four gradeable. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[June 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-06/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is 2. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is 3. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is 4. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is 5. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is 6. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is 7. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is 8. **08**Education and risk: patience is the positionYesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is Cold open: a bullseye, then somebody moved the table **17 points**Yesterday the Sensex settled **74,000**Sensex settled points **500 points**Expiry day opens A very good morning, guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex settled 17 points from 74,000, the most loaded strike on its board, with its own expiry this morning. A bullseye for the option sellers. And then, overnight, somebody moved the table. Wall Street's tech Read the chapter Scorecard: eP57 graded 3.5 of 4 **3.5**Episode graded **17 points**Expiry pin call landed **23,200**Points from the bullseye Episode 57 graded 3.5 out of 4 gradeable calls. The expiry pin call landed 17 points from the bullseye, 23,200 held, and the premium sellers got paid. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com. Read the chapter The tape: two markets wearing one index **23,215**Nifty closed **73,983**Sensex closed **1.1**Half percent, smallcaps **1.7**Energy down metal Nifty closed 23,215, down 27, basically flat. Sensex closed 73,983, up 64. Boring, right? Look underneath. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 16 rose and 34 fell. The midcap index dropped one and a half percent, smallcaps 1.1. Media down 2.4 percent, energy down 2, metal Read the chapter The ceiling: 80 lakh contracts stacked in one day **74,613**O'clock, the Sensex touched **80 lakh**Added nearly **60 lakh**Alone now holds The intraday shape tells you who is in charge. We rallied to 23,425 by two o'clock, the Sensex touched 74,613, and then the last ninety minutes got sold straight into the close. The fresh options data explains it. While we rallied, the call sellers were Read the chapter The desks: they blinked. Barely. **2,72,000**Day four, still **1919 crore**Sold another **2950 crore**Domestic institutions bought **22,000**Futures longs Did the foreign desk finally cover the mountain short? They blinked. Barely. Out of 2,77,000 contracts net short in index futures, they covered about 5000. Less than two percent. Day four, still 2,72,000 short, still loaded with protective puts, still short Read the chapter Expiry board: cushion 73,500, switch 73,900, magnet 74,000 **23,112**Market screen slid **23,050**Nifty open **165 points**Nifty open near roughly **73,450**Sensex open The pre market screen slid from 23,112 to about 23,043 in half an hour, pointing to a Nifty open near 23,050, roughly 165 points down, and a Sensex open around 73,450 to 73,500. On the Sensex expiry board, 73,500 holds nearly 16 lakh puts, the writers added Read the chapter The plan: the first 30 minutes decide everything **73,900**Test and we reclaim **74,000**Drift goes home toward **73,000**Trapdoor is open **7.7**Where retail's If 73,500 holds the opening test and we reclaim 73,900 inside that window, the day flips back to magnet mode and the drift goes home toward 74,000 into the close. That is where the premium sellers eat. If 73,500 breaks and stays broken for half an hour, do not Read the chapter Education and risk: patience is the position **74,000**Money straddle **556 points**Straddle at costs **8 percent**Implied volatility jumped nearly **95.27**Rupee is fine Yesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is rising, not falling. The at the money straddle at 74,000 costs about 556 points, and its implied volatility jumped nearly 8 percent into the close. The Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: a bullseye, then somebody moved the table A very good morning, guys. At 3:30 yesterday the Sensex settled 17 points from 74,000, the most loaded strike on its board, with its own expiry this morning. A bullseye for the option sellers. And then, overnight, somebody moved the table. Wall Street's tech wreck ran a second day, and our pre market screen has been sliding all morning. Expiry day opens 500 points below the magnet. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 58. ### *02*Scorecard: eP57 graded 3.5 of 4 Episode 57 graded 3.5 out of 4 gradeable calls. The expiry pin call landed 17 points from the bullseye, 23,200 held, and the premium sellers got paid. Full scorecard on rupeecase.com. ### *03*The tape: two markets wearing one index Nifty closed 23,215, down 27, basically flat. Sensex closed 73,983, up 64. Boring, right? Look underneath. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 16 rose and 34 fell. The midcap index dropped one and a half percent, smallcaps 1.1. Media down 2.4 percent, energy down 2, metal down 1.7, and the PSU banks that ripped 3.6 on Tuesday gave back 1.4. So what was green? FMCG, up one percent. Hindustan Unilever, ITC, and the big private banks, Axis, Kotak, ICICI, HDFC. That is not buying, that is hiding. Money spent Wednesday rotating into the most defensive corner of the market while the index stood still. ### *04*The ceiling: 80 lakh contracts stacked in one day The intraday shape tells you who is in charge. We rallied to 23,425 by two o'clock, the Sensex touched 74,613, and then the last ninety minutes got sold straight into the close. The fresh options data explains it. While we rallied, the call sellers were stacking the ceiling: at 23,300, 23,400 and 23,500 they added nearly 80 lakh contracts in one day. 23,400 alone now holds 60 lakh, the biggest single build on the Nifty board. The market walked into that ceiling at 23,425 and the sellers slammed the window shut. ### *05*The desks: they blinked. Barely. Did the foreign desk finally cover the mountain short? They blinked. Barely. Out of 2,77,000 contracts net short in index futures, they covered about 5000. Less than two percent. Day four, still 2,72,000 short, still loaded with protective puts, still short calls. Three legs, all pointing down, unmoved. And they sold another 1919 crore of cash stock on top. Against them, the domestic institutions bought 2950 crore, the eleventh straight buying day. The proprietary desks halved their futures longs from 22,000 to 12,000 but kept options on both sides, paid if the market moves big either way. And retail clients are still long 2 lakh futures and short nearly 7.7 lakh puts. ### *06*Expiry board: cushion 73,500, switch 73,900, magnet 74,000 The pre market screen slid from 23,112 to about 23,043 in half an hour, pointing to a Nifty open near 23,050, roughly 165 points down, and a Sensex open around 73,450 to 73,500. On the Sensex expiry board, 73,500 holds nearly 16 lakh puts, the writers added over 8 lakh of those just yesterday. That is the cushion, and we are opening right on top of it. The ceiling has moved up, 74,500 holds 18 lakh calls and 75,000 holds 23 lakh, the biggest wall on the board. Below us, 73,000 holds nearly 19 lakh puts, almost 10 lakh added in a single session. Somebody spent Wednesday buying insurance a thousand points below the close. One more level, the most important one. The switch sits near 73,900. Above it the options machinery absorbs moves and drags price back toward the 74,000 magnet. Below it, the same machinery speeds the move up. We are opening below the switch. That is exactly what makes today dangerous. ### *07*The plan: the first 30 minutes decide everything If 73,500 holds the opening test and we reclaim 73,900 inside that window, the day flips back to magnet mode and the drift goes home toward 74,000 into the close. That is where the premium sellers eat. If 73,500 breaks and stays broken for half an hour, do not argue with it, the trapdoor is open and 73,000 comes fast, and that is where retail's 7.7 lakh written puts start burning. On Nifty, same logic, one floor lower. 23,000 carries 46 lakh puts, the foundation of the whole structure, and I expect it to hold a first test. Only back above 23,200 does the old range resume. The ceiling at 23,300 to 23,500 is freshly cemented, sell the rises into it. Long trades only above 74,000 on the Sensex, only above 23,200 on Nifty. Below those, rallies are for selling, not for chasing. ### *08*Education and risk: patience is the position Yesterday volatility was crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is rising, not falling. The at the money straddle at 74,000 costs about 556 points, and its implied volatility jumped nearly 8 percent into the close. The market is paying up for protection on expiry morning, which it almost never does when it expects a quiet pin. So do not sell premium blind at the open. A gap through your strike on expiry day can take away in one hour what took weeks to collect. Let the first half hour pick the side. The honest risk sits outside the chain. Brent at 94 and a quarter, up more than a percent, the ceasefire discount leaking out drop by drop. The rupee is fine at 95.27 for now. But if Brent pushes through 96, the whole bank led story from Tuesday reverses, and no support level argues with oil. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty closed 23,215 down 27, Sensex closed 73,983 up 64 * *02*16 of 50 Nifty stocks rose, 34 fell, midcaps lost 1.5 percent * *03*Media down 2.4, energy down 2, metal down 1.7, PSU banks gave back 1.4 * *04*FMCG up 1 percent, the only green corner, HUL ITC and private banks * *05*Intraday high 23,425 at 2 pm, Sensex touched 74,613, last 90 minutes sold * *06*Call sellers added nearly 80 lakh contracts at 23,300 23,400 23,500 in one day * *07*23,400 alone holds 60 lakh contracts, biggest single build on the Nifty board * *08*FII covered about 5000 of 2,77,000 short index futures, under 2 percent, day 4 * *09*FII sold 1919 crore cash, DII bought 2950 crore, 11th straight buying day * *10*Pro desks halved futures longs 22,000 to 12,000, options on both sides * *11*Clients long 2 lakh futures, short nearly 7.7 lakh puts * *12*Pre market screen slid 23,112 to 23,043, Nifty open near 23,050, gap of about 165 points * *13*Sensex opens 73,450 to 73,500, right on the 73,500 cushion of 16 lakh puts * *14*73,000 holds 19 lakh puts, almost 10 lakh added in one session * *15*Ceiling 74,500 holds 18 lakh calls, 75,000 holds 23 lakh, biggest wall * *16*Switch level 73,900, opening below it means moves get amplified not absorbed * *17*74,000 straddle near 556 points, expiry IV jumped nearly 8 percent into close * *18*Nifty floor 23,000 with 46 lakh puts, line 23,200, ceiling 23,300 to 23,500 * *19*Brent 94.25 up over 1 percent, rupee 95.27, Brent above 96 reverses the bank trade * *20*Longs only above 74,000 on Sensex and 23,200 on Nifty Show all 20 05In his words A bullseye for the option sellers. And then, overnight, somebody moved the table. That is not buying, that is hiding. The market walked into that ceiling at 23,425 and the sellers slammed the window shut. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,233 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. Yesterday at 3:30, Sensex closed at 17 points above that 74,000 mark, the most loaded strike on the option chain, with its own expiry today. A bullseye for option sellers. And then overnight, somebody moved the table. Wall Street tech wreck ran a second day, and our pre-market screen has been bleeding all morning. Expiry day opens 500 points below the magnet. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 58. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So, quick scorecard before we proceed. 5 out of 4 gradable calls. The expiry pin call landed 17 points from the bullseye. 23,200 held and premium sellers got paid. com. Now, Wednesday's tape. Yesterday, because two markets were wearing one index, Nifty closed 23,215, down 27 points, basically flat, whereas Sensex closed 73,983, up 64 points. Boring, all looks like. Out of 50 Nifty stocks, 16 rose and 34 fell. 4% down. FMCG up 1%. Hindustan Unilever, ITC and the big private banks, Axis, Kotak, ICICI, HDFC. That is not the buying. That is the hiding. Money spent Wednesday rotating into the most defensive corners of the market while the index stayed flat. And the intraday shape tells you who is in charge. We rallied to 23,425 by two o'clock, the Sensex had almost touched 74,613, and then the last 90 minutes got sold straight into the close. The fresh options data explains it. While we rallied, the call sellers were stacking the ceiling at 23,300, 23,400 and 23,500. They added nearly 80 lakh contracts in one day. 23,400 alone now holds 60 lakh contracts, the biggest single build-up on the Nifty option chain. The market walked into that resistance at 23,425 and the sellers slammed the window shut. Now the twist I promised you yesterday. Did the FII desks finally cover the mountain short, or did they blink? Out of 2,77,000 contracts net short on index, they covered about 5,000. Less than 2%. Day 4, still holding 2,72,000 short index futures, still loaded with protective puts and still selling those calls. Three legs all pointing towards a down move, and they haven't changed their stance. And they sold another 1,919 crore of cash on top of that. Against them, the DIIs bought 2,950 crore of cash. And the Pros, the proprietary desk, the smartest money in the room, halved their futures longs from twenty-two thousand to twelve thousand, but still twelve thousand futures contracts are long. And they have bought options on both the ends, calls as well as puts, meaning they get paid if the market moves big either way. They just stopped betting on which direction the market would move. And the retail clients, they are on the opposite side. 7 lakh puts. Hold that number in your head until I give you the downside level. So, here is the expiry day prep today. The pre-market screen slid from 23,112 to about 23,043 in half an hour this morning, pointing to a Nifty open nearly towards that 23,000 strike, 23,050 is where we should open, and Sensex opens around 73,450 to 73,500. Now pulling up the expiry chain. 73,500 holds nearly 16 lakh puts, and the writers have added over 8 lakh of those just yesterday. That is the cushion, and we are opening right on top of it. The resistance has moved up: 74,500 holds 18 lakh contracts and 75,000 holds around 23 lakh contracts. And below 73,500 is 73,000, which holds nearly 19 lakh puts, almost 10 lakh added in a single session. Read that again. Somebody spent Wednesday buying insurance 1,000 points below the close. So 73,000 strike is what we are looking for. One more level, guys, the most important one. The gamma flip level, or the switch level: 73,900. In plain words, above that level the option machinery absorbs moves and drags price towards that 74,000 magnet. Below it, the same machinery speeds up the move instead of slowing it down. We are opening below that level. That is exactly what makes today extremely dangerous. So the plan is twofold, guys. The first is, what we are going to do is watch for 30 minutes after the market opens. If 73,500 holds the opening test and we reclaim 73,600, then 73,900 plays inside that window, the day flips back to the magnet mode and the drift goes home towards 74,000 into the close. That is where premium sellers eat that 74,000 straddle out. If 73,500 breaks and stays broken for half an hour, do not try to defend it. The trapdoor is open and 73,000 would come extremely fast. 7 lakh written puts start burning. On Nifty, it is the same logic. So, 23,000 carries 46 lakh puts, the foundation of the whole structure, and I expect it to hold for the first test. Only back above 23,200 does the old range resume. The resistance is at 23,300 and 23,500, that is the range we are talking about, which is freshly cemented, so sell on rise continues. And the long trades only start above 74,000 on Sensex and 23,200 on Nifty. Below those, rallies are for selling and not for chasing. Now today's lesson, guys, because it is the opposite of yesterday. Yesterday volatility had crushed and I told you to sell the calm. This morning the expiry option price is rising, not falling. The ATM straddle is trading around 556 points on Sensex and its IV jumped nearly 8% into the close. The market is paying up for protection on expiry, which it almost never does when it expects a quiet pin. So do not sell premium blindly at the open. A gap through your strike on expiry day can take away in one hour what you collected in weeks. Let the first half pick the side. If the cushion holds, the second half of the day is where the pin trade and the premium selling should happen. This morning, patience is the key, guys. So the honest risk sits outside our chain as well. Crude is creeping back. Iran war tensions are back again. 25 this morning, up more than a percent, the ceasefire discount leaking out drop by drop. 27 for now. But if Brent pushes through 96, the whole bank-led story from Tuesday reverses, and no support level argues with oil. That is the gate I am watching before the levels pan in today. So the day in one breath, guys. Expiry gaps down onto the cushion. 73,500 holds and 73,900 gets reclaimed extremely fast, we drift home near 74,000 and the sellers win again. 73,500 breaks down for the first 30 minutes, 73,000 is where we are heading. Nifty floor is 23,000 and the resistance is 23,200. The cap is at 23,400. The FIIs covered just 2% and kept 98% of their short position. Call it the 73,500 decision line. Trade that level, not the opinion. So this is The Tanmay Edge, guys. If this helped you see the tape more clearly, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. Hit subscribe so you never miss a podcast update every morning. com and on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, every trading morning at 8:30. And leave me a rating, guys, I read every single one of them. I am waiting for your reviews. Have a happy trading expiry, and see you all once again tomorrow. Questions ## EP58, in plain words. What does EP58 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP58, Thursday 11 Jun 2026, 10:09, in 8 chapters: Cold open: a bullseye, then somebody moved the table; Scorecard: eP57 graded 3.5 of 4; The tape: two markets wearing one index; The ceiling: 80 lakh contracts stacked in one day; The desks: they blinked. Barely.; Expiry board: cushion 73,500, switch 73,900, magnet 74,000; The plan: the first 30 minutes decide everything; Education and risk: patience is the position. How did the calls in EP58 score?Grade 3.5/4 (88 percent): 3 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 12 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [StrategyMidcap strategyNifty Midcap 150, 20 stocks, every 2 weeks](/strategies/midcap) * [StrategyEnergy Basket strategyCNX Energy, 10 stocks, every week](/strategies/energy-basket) * [Free module 1.3Indices & Benchmarks13 min read](/learn/path-1/module-1-3-indices-and-benchmarks) * [Free module 3.1The Momentum Factor11 min read](/learn/path-3/module-3-1-momentum-factor-deep-dive) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup) [Join the WhatsApp group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7) [One form, one group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7)Scan with your phone camera 07Read next ## Behind the calls. [Learn, module 2.3Risk Metrics That MatterEvery strategy shows you a CAGR. Fewer show you the drawdown. Almost none explain what the Sharpe ratio actually means.Intermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-2/module-2-3-risk-metrics-that-matter)[Learn, module 6.6Derivatives: Futures and Options for the Systematic InvestorThe F&O market in India is one of the largest derivatives markets in the world by volume. Most retail participants loseIntermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-6/module-6-6-derivatives-futures-options) [StrategyMidcap Smallcap40 stocks, fortnightly rotation. Momentum on the NSE Universe under 2000.Model, back tested CAGR 42.6%, as of 27 Apr 2026. Risk Moderately High.](/strategies/midcap-smallcap) Share [X](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=Expiry%20gaps%20down%20onto%20the%20cushion.%2073%2C500%20decides%20%7C%20The%20Tanmay%20Edge%20EP58&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-06-11) [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-06-11) Copy link [All episodes](/podcast/) Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.