--- title: "Sensex Expiry Day, And The Big Money Is | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Today the Sensex week settles | expiry day | and by this afternoon every Sensex option either pays off or expires worthless. That's job one." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-04" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP53 # Sensex expiry day, and the big money is short Sensex weekly expiry today, every option settles by this afternoon * **8:47**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Thu 4 Jun 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Sensex expiry day, and the big money is short EP53, 4 Jun, 8:47 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:47 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** Sensex Expiry Day * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 5 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. This grade was revised after a call resolved later; the final grade is shown. 1. **Miss**long the strangle into the decision lost when expiry crushed the volatility gauge to 15.89. 2. **Miss**long the strangle into the decision lost when expiry crushed the volatility gauge to 15.89. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[June 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-06/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red 2. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red 3. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red 4. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red 5. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red 6. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red 7. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red 8. **08**The world and the shadow: crude cools intoThe world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red Cold open: expiry today, the rate call tomorrow A very good morning, guys. Today is the day the Sensex week settles. Expiry day. By this afternoon every Sensex option on the board either pays off or expires worthless, and the market spends the whole session fighting over exactly where that line gets drawn. That is job number one today. Sitting one day behind it, like a shadow, is the Reserve Bank's rate verdict tomorrow morning. So today you trade the expiry, but Read the chapter The Sensex: boxed between 74,000 and 75,000 **74,000**Bets is parked **75,000**Heaviest upside lid **650 points**Pricing move **74,300**Magnet today sits Start with today's battlefield, the Sensex, because it expires in a few hours. The range is clear. 74,000 on the downside, 75,000 on the upside, about a thousand points apart. The heaviest pile of downside bets is parked at 74,000, the heaviest upside lid at Read the chapter The warning: Sensex options die into the close One warning if you are trading Sensex options today. They die this afternoon. The volatility baked into them collapses into the close. So if you buy a Sensex option for direction and the market just sits, which is the base case, you can lose half your premium to time decay alone, without the market moving a single point your way. On expiry, in a quiet tape, the option seller wins. Respect that. Read the chapter The Nifty: the cleaner trade carrying tomorrow **23,405**Nifty closed **375 points**Weekly move **22,940**Band of roughly **95 points**Hard lid now Now the Nifty, which is the cleaner trade, because it is still carrying tomorrow's event in its price. Nifty closed at 23,405. The option market is pricing a weekly move of about 375 points, which stretches to a band of roughly 22,940 on the downside to 23,875 Read the chapter The plan: buy dips, sell rallies, stay long volatility **23,450**You are back above **23,500**Every push **23,200**Next stop **23,000**Next stop Here is the plan in plain terms. While 23,300 holds on a closing basis, you buy the dips. The zone is 23,300 to 23,330, stop just under 23,250. But you only trust the upside once you are back above 23,450. Until then, every push into 23,500 is a sell on rise Read the chapter The standoff: foreigners short, homes buying **2,59,253**Now net short **29,000**Piled on almost **1,96,000**Net long, almost The positioning underneath tells you why everyone is cautious. In the index futures, foreign investors are now net short 2,59,253 contracts, and they piled on almost 29,000 fresh shorts just yesterday. That is their most defensive stance all week, built Read the chapter EP52 graded: three of five, IT was the miss **5336 crore**Foreigners sold another **5510 crore**Own institutions bought **5 percent**Sector fell more **7.02**Yields held The cash market agrees. Foreigners sold another 5336 crore yesterday on the NSE, but our own institutions bought 5510 crore, their sixth straight day of buying. That domestic wall is the whole reason Wednesday held. Because Wednesday was ugly under the hood. Read the chapter The world and the shadow: crude cools into the RBI **2 percent**Red, Japan down nearly **7.02**Year bond steady **70,000**Even Bitcoin slipped **5.25 percent**Hold the rate The world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red, Japan down nearly 2 percent, Korea down 2, America closed lower overnight. The reason the mood soured this week is crude, renewed US and Iran tensions Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: expiry today, the rate call tomorrow A very good morning, guys. Today is the day the Sensex week settles. Expiry day. By this afternoon every Sensex option on the board either pays off or expires worthless, and the market spends the whole session fighting over exactly where that line gets drawn. That is job number one today. Sitting one day behind it, like a shadow, is the Reserve Bank's rate verdict tomorrow morning. So today you trade the expiry, but you trade it knowing nobody wants to carry a big bet into that decision. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 53. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. ### *02*The Sensex: boxed between 74,000 and 75,000 Start with today's battlefield, the Sensex, because it expires in a few hours. The range is clear. 74,000 on the downside, 75,000 on the upside, about a thousand points apart. The heaviest pile of downside bets is parked at 74,000, the heaviest upside lid at 75,000. The option market is pricing a move of about 650 points for the day. That is the straddle, what you pay to bet on a move either way. And on expiry, price tends to get dragged toward the middle, toward the level where the largest number of option buyers walk away with nothing. That magnet today sits around 74,300 to 74,500. So the base case is a grind back toward that middle and a settle, with almost no change overnight, unless something forces it out of the range. ### *03*The warning: Sensex options die into the close One warning if you are trading Sensex options today. They die this afternoon. The volatility baked into them collapses into the close. So if you buy a Sensex option for direction and the market just sits, which is the base case, you can lose half your premium to time decay alone, without the market moving a single point your way. On expiry, in a quiet tape, the option seller wins. Respect that. ### *04*The Nifty: the cleaner trade carrying tomorrow Now the Nifty, which is the cleaner trade, because it is still carrying tomorrow's event in its price. Nifty closed at 23,405. The option market is pricing a weekly move of about 375 points, which stretches to a band of roughly 22,940 on the downside to 23,875 on the upside. Inside that, three levels run your day. 23,300 is the support, the heaviest stack of downside protection sits there and buyers have defended it. 23,500 is the resistance, and yesterday a massive wall of fresh upside bets landed at exactly that strike, almost 3 million contracts in a single day. That is a hard lid now, about 95 points above us. And 23,450 is the line in between. Below 23,450 moves get amplified, the tape is fast and twitchy. Above 23,450 it calms and drifts. We are sitting at 23,405, just below it, so expect it jumpy until the buyers take 23,450 back. ### *05*The plan: buy dips, sell rallies, stay long volatility Here is the plan in plain terms. While 23,300 holds on a closing basis, you buy the dips. The zone is 23,300 to 23,330, stop just under 23,250. But you only trust the upside once you are back above 23,450. Until then, every push into 23,500 is a sell on rise, a place to book, not chase. Lose 23,300 on a close and the next stop is 23,200, then 23,000. That is your tell the market is getting scared and pre positioning for a bad rate call. And the trade that is already paying. A couple of sessions ago I told you this was a long volatility setup, buy the strangle into the event, do not sell your options. India VIX closed at 16.28, up 6 percent in a single day. If you were long that volatility, you are already paid. Volatility stays bid right up until a big event, then collapses the moment it passes. Tomorrow is that event. So on the Nifty you stay long volatility, or you stay flat. You do not sell Nifty premium the day before the central bank speaks. ### *06*The standoff: foreigners short, homes buying The positioning underneath tells you why everyone is cautious. In the index futures, foreign investors are now net short 2,59,253 contracts, and they piled on almost 29,000 fresh shorts just yesterday. That is their most defensive stance all week, built deliberately, right before the rate decision. On the other side, the retail crowd is net long, almost 1,96,000 contracts. The professionals are slightly long and busy writing options, plenty of calls written and puts bought. So big foreign money short and hedged, the small trader long against them, into the biggest event of the week. When the smart money pays up for protection and the crowd leans the other way, you respect the protection. ### *07*EP52 graded: three of five, IT was the miss The cash market agrees. Foreigners sold another 5336 crore yesterday on the NSE, but our own institutions bought 5510 crore, their sixth straight day of buying. That domestic wall is the whole reason Wednesday held. Because Wednesday was ugly under the hood. The IT sector fell more than 5 percent, led lower by its heavyweight TCS, and yet the index barely moved. The banks rotated up and caught it. Rotation, not collapse. Quick scorecard on yesterday's five calls. Three landed. 74,000 held, crude stayed under 97, yields held at 7.02. The miss was IT, which I said would lead and instead led the fall. Owned. ### *08*The world and the shadow: crude cools into the RBI The world this morning, fast. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red, Japan down nearly 2 percent, Korea down 2, America closed lower overnight. The reason the mood soured this week is crude, renewed US and Iran tensions spiked oil toward 98 on Brent. But here is the relief, it has cooled this morning, back to 96 and change, under 97. Gold is firm at 4466, the rupee at 95.71, the 10 year bond steady at 7.02, and even Bitcoin slipped under 70,000. The two things that could have boxed in the Reserve Bank, runaway crude and spiking yields, have both gone quiet overnight. Which brings us back to the shadow, the RBI tomorrow. The meeting started Wednesday. The market expects the bank to hold the rate at 5.25 percent, but with a careful, watchful tone, given the oil shock and the weak rupee. That is the wait. That is why nobody is swinging big size today. So your Thursday in one breath. Today is expiry, the Sensex settles between 74,000 and 75,000 dragging toward the 74,300 to 74,500 middle, and you do not buy Sensex options for direction into the volatility crush. On the Nifty, buy dips while 23,300 holds, only trust upside above 23,450, sell into 23,500, and stay long volatility into the verdict. My tag for the day, expiry settle, range bound, long volatility, support 23,300, resistance 23,500, conviction capped until the rate call. 04Key takeaways ## 19 things to carry into the session. * *01*Sensex weekly expiry today, every option settles by this afternoon * *02*Sensex range 74,000 downside to 75,000 upside, about 1000 points wide * *03*Sensex straddle pricing about 650 points for the day * *04*Sensex magnet 74,300 to 74,500, base case grind to the middle and settle * *05*Sensex options bleed half their premium to time decay in a quiet tape * *06*Nifty weekly move priced about 375 points, band 22,940 to 23,875 * *07*23,300 support, heaviest downside protection sits there * *08*23,500 resistance, almost 3 million fresh upside contracts in a single day * *09*23,450 is the line, below it moves amplify above it the tape calms * *10*Plan buy dips 23,300 to 23,330 stop under 23,250 * *11*Trust upside only back above 23,450, sell into 23,500 * *12*Lose 23,300 on close next stops 23,200 then 23,000 * *13*India VIX 16.28 up 6 percent in a day, stay long volatility into the event * *14*FII net short 2,59,253 index futures, added almost 29,000 fresh shorts * *15*Retail net long almost 1,96,000, pros slightly long writing calls buying puts * *16*FII sold 5336 crore cash, DII bought 5510 crore sixth straight day * *17*IT fell more than 5 percent led by TCS, banks rotated up index barely moved * *18*EP52 graded three of five, 74,000 held crude under 97 yields 7.02 hit, IT miss * *19*GIFT Nifty 23,313 down about 90, Brent under 97, gold 4466, rupee 95.71, 10Y 7.02, repo hold 5.25 expected Show all 19 05In his words Today you trade the expiry, but you trade it knowing nobody wants to carry a big bet into that decision. On expiry, in a quiet tape, the option seller wins. Respect that. You do not sell Nifty premium the day before the central bank speaks. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,254 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. Today is the Sensex weekly expiry. By this afternoon, every Sensex option on the board either pays off or expires worthless, and the market spends the 375 minutes fighting over exactly where that line gets drawn. That is job number one for today. And sitting one day behind it, like a shadow, is the RBI's rate verdict tomorrow morning. So today you trade the expiry, but you trade it knowing nobody wants to carry a big bet into tomorrow's decision. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 53. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Let's start with today's battlefield, the Sensex, because it expires in the next few hours. The range is extremely clear, 74,000 on the downside and 75,000 on the upside, about a thousand points apart. The heaviest pile of downside bets is parked at 74000, the heaviest upside resistance at 75,000. The options market is pricing a move of around 650 points for the day, that's the straddle, what you pay to bet on a move either way. And here's the thing about expiry: price tends to get tracked towards the middle, towards the level where the largest number of option buyers walk away with nothing. That magnet today sits around 74,300 to 74,500. So my base case for the Sensex is a grind back towards that middle and a settle, with almost negligible change overnight, unless something forces it out of that range. One warning, guys, if you are trading Sensex options today, they die this afternoon. The volatility baked into them collapses into the close. So if you buy a Sensex option for direction and the market just sits there, which is the base case, you can lose half of your premium to time decay alone, without the market moving a single point your way. On expiry, in a quiet tape, the option seller wins. Respect that, and remember that today as well. So now the Nifty, which is the cleaner trade, because the Nifty is still carrying tomorrow's event in its price. Nifty closed at 23,405. The options market is pricing a weekly move of around 375 points, which stretches to a band of roughly 22,940 on the downside and 23,875 on the upside. Inside, three levels run your day. 23,300 is the support to look for, the heaviest stack of downside protection sits there and buyers will defend it. 23,500 is the resistance, yesterday a massive wall of fresh upside bets landed at exactly that strike, almost 3 million contracts in a single day. That's a hard lid now, about 95 points above us. And between them, at 23450, is the flip level. Below 23450, moves get amplified, the tape is fast and twitchy. Above 23450, it is calm and drifts. We are sitting at 23405, just below the flip. So expect it jumpy until the buyers take back 23,450 on the upside. So here's the plan in plain terms. While 23,300 holds on a closing basis, you buy the dips, the zone is 23,300 to 23330, stop just under 23250, so if 23,250 breaches you're out. But you only trust the upside once we are back above 23,300 and cross 23,450. Until then, every push into 23,500 is a sell-on-the-rise, remember that, a place to book, not chase. Lose 23,300 on the close and the next stop directly is 23200, and 23000, yes, 23,000 is a likelihood, and that's your tell the market is getting scared and pre-positioning for a bad rate call tomorrow. Now the trade that is already paying up. A couple of sessions ago, I told you this was a long-volatility setup, buy the strangle into the event, don't sell your options. 28, up six percent in a single day. If you're long that volatility, you are already paid. And it keeps working for one reason: volatility stays bid right up until the big event, and then crushes the moment it passes by. Tomorrow is that event. So on the Nifty, you stay long volatility or you stay flat, you do not sell Nifty premium the day before the central bank is going to speak. And the positioning underneath tells you why everyone is cautious. In the index futures, FIIs are now net short 2,60,000 contracts, and they piled almost 29,000 fresh shorts yesterday itself. That's their most defensive stance all week, built deliberately right before the rate decision. On the other side, the retail crowd is net long, almost 1,96,000 contracts. The professionals are slightly long and busy writing options, pros are long, but they have written a huge amount of calls and bought puts. So big foreign money short and hedged, the small trader long against them, into the biggest event of the week. When the smart money pays up for protection and the crowd leans the other way, you respect the protection. The cash market also agrees, guys. FIIs sold another 5336 crore of cash yesterday, but our institutions bought 5510 crore. The domestic wall is the reason Wednesday held. Because Wednesday was ugly under the hood, the IT sector fell more than 5% yesterday, led lower by its heavyweight TCS, and yet the index barely moved. The banks rotated up, banks helped it. Rotation was the reason, not collapse. Quick scorecard on yesterday's five calls: three landed. 74,000 held. Crude stayed under 97. 02. The miss was IT, which I said would lead and instead led the fall. Now I am owning it. Now the world this morning is showing something different. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23313, about 90 points lower. Asia is red, Japan down nearly 2%, Korea is down 2%, America closed lower overnight. The reason the mood soured this week is crude, renewed US and Iran tensions spiked oil towards 98 on Brent. But here's the relief: it has cooled this morning, back to 96 levels and change, under 97. Gold is firm at 4466. 71. 02. Even Bitcoin, for the risk crowd, slipped under 70,000. So the two things that could have boxed in the RBI, runaway crude prices, spiking yields, have both gone quiet overnight. Which brings us back to the shadow, the RBI tomorrow. The meeting started yesterday itself. 25%, but with a careful, watchful tone, given the oil shock and a weak rupee. That's the wait. That's why nobody is swinging big size today. And so here's your Thursday in one breath. Today is expiry, the Sensex pins between 74,000 and 75000, dragging towards 74,300 to 74500, your pin strike that we're focusing on. You don't buy Sensex options for direction into the vol crush that is going to happen. On the Nifty, buy the dips while 23,300 holds, only trust the upside if we close above 23450, the flip level, sell into 23500, and stay long volatility into tomorrow's open. The foreigners are short, the locals are buying, and the whole market is settling its week with one eye on the RBI's policy tomorrow. My tag for the day: expiry pin, range-bound, long volatility, support around 23300, resistance around 23500, conviction capped until the rate call. If I gave you a cleaner plan for today, then share it with one trader friend who needs this plan as well. com. And I am waiting for your reviews, they tell me what's landing and what isn't. This has been The Tanmay Edge. I'm Tanmay Kurtkoti. I'll see you tomorrow, before the bell, for the RBI. Once again, have a happy expiry, guys. Questions ## EP53, in plain words. What does EP53 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP53, Thursday 4 Jun 2026, 8:47, in 8 chapters: Cold open: expiry today, the rate call tomorrow; The Sensex: boxed between 74,000 and 75,000; The warning: Sensex options die into the close; The Nifty: the cleaner trade carrying tomorrow; The plan: buy dips, sell rallies, stay long volatility; The standoff: foreigners short, homes buying; EP52 graded: three of five, IT was the miss; The world and the shadow: crude cools into the RBI. How did the calls in EP53 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 5 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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