--- title: "Brent Below 100. FII Blinked. Monthly | The Tanmay Edge" description: "The foreign desk is covering. Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures and 94,113 short calls in one session. After six straight weeks of stacking that short" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-25" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP46 # Brent below 100. FII blinked. Monthly expiry tomorrow FII Friday trimmed 6198 short futures and 94,113 short calls first crack in six weeks of stacking * **8:46**listen * **2/5**graded at settlement * **Mon 25 May 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Brent below 100. FII blinked. Monthly expiry tomorrow EP46, 25 May, 8:46 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:46 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 2/5 at settlement. **2/5**40% **The call.** Pre-Monthly * **2**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **3**Miss Graded the next trading day, 26 May 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Miss**the close-band 23,750 to 23,900 slipped 13.70 high (23,913.70), the high-band 24,050 was breached by 39.80 (24,089.80), and Bank Nifty closed 55,090 far above the 53,900 to 54,200 band. Direction mixed, levels tight, BhavCopy verified. 2. **Miss**the close-band 23,750 to 23,900 slipped 13.70 high (23,913.70), the high-band 24,050 was breached by 39.80 (24,089.80), and Bank Nifty closed 55,090 far above the 53,900 to 54,200 band. Direction mixed, levels tight, BhavCopy verified. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[May 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-05/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger 2. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger 3. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger 4. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger 5. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger 6. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger 7. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger 8. **08**CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday readFriday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger Cold open: FII first crack in six weeks **94,113**Short futures contracts So I am sitting here Monday morning at 8 AM and I am going to start with the part nobody on Twitter is saying out loud. The foreign desk is covering. Not all at once. Not yet. But Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures contracts and 94,113 short calls in one Read the chapter Segment 1: pro paid both sides in record size **1,50,735**Same session they added **23,650**Caught the bounce And while the foreign desk was quietly covering, the professional desk did something I have never seen them do this size in a single session. They added 1,86,102 long calls. And on the same session they added 1,50,735 long puts. Both sides. Not one or the Read the chapter Segment 2: Brent below 100 and the peace pivot came back **99.03**Brent crude **95.69**Opened this morning **96.20**Friday close **99.01**Dollar Index slid Now the macro. Brent crude is at 99.03 this morning. Down 4.36 percent overnight. Below 100 for the first time in this oil cycle. WTI is at 92.24. Down 4.51 percent. The peace pivot that died on Wednesday came back to life on Sunday night. Trump apparently Read the chapter Segment 3: Asia ripping and US at three ATHs **0.85**Hang Seng **23,958**GIFT Nifty **23,719**Nifty cash close Asia is ripping. Nikkei at 65,192. Up 1853 points. Up 2.93 percent. New all time high. Hang Seng up 0.85. Taiwan up 2.82. Shanghai up 0.60. Four for four Asian green. US Friday closed at fresh highs. Dow 50,914. S and P 7473. Nasdaq 26,343. Three indices. Read the chapter Segment 4: Friday chain locked the magnet at 23,750 **23,700**Call sellers **27 lakh**Call sellers at unwound **23,800**Call sellers **12 lakh**Call sellers at unwound Friday the 26 May options chain on Nifty did three things that all point the same way. The call sellers at 23,700 unwound 27 lakh contracts in one session. The call sellers at 23,800 unwound 12 lakh. Almost no resistance left between the open and 24,000. On Read the chapter Segment 5: Monday trade plan and the 3 to 1 hedge **23,958**If GIFT **9.15**If GIFT holds **240 points**Open you are already **23,800**Buy zone Today is Monday. Tomorrow is Tuesday monthly expiry. We have one full session to position. Do not chase the gap up open. If GIFT 23,958 holds at 9.15 AM open you are already 240 points above Friday close. The first move is almost always a fade by the writers. Read the chapter Segment 6: RBI swap Tuesday and the cash flow floor **4440 crore**Foreign desk sold **6003 crore**Domestic mutual funds bought **135 percent**Domestic absorbed One thing to watch by 11 AM. The RBI 5 billion dollar buy-sell swap auction lands tomorrow on the same day as the three expiries. RBI is putting dollars into the system on the same Tuesday that decides where Nifty monthly settles, where Bank Nifty first Read the chapter CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday read **23,671**Caught the dip **96.20**Rupee gate held **23,900**Misses were the above **14.84**Volatility moved Friday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger never fired. The 96.30 rupee gate held at 96.20 close. Three out of five testable calls hit. The two misses were the above 23,900 path and the hedge Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: FII first crack in six weeks So I am sitting here Monday morning at 8 AM and I am going to start with the part nobody on Twitter is saying out loud. The foreign desk is covering. Not all at once. Not yet. But Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures contracts and 94,113 short calls in one session. After six straight weeks of stacking that short higher every Tuesday and Thursday. The first crack in a wall takes 10 minutes to make. The first crack in a position takes six weeks. Friday was the first crack. This is The Tanmay Edge. Episode 46. Season 2. ### *02*Segment 1: pro paid both sides in record size And while the foreign desk was quietly covering, the professional desk did something I have never seen them do this size in a single session. They added 1,86,102 long calls. And on the same session they added 1,50,735 long puts. Both sides. Not one or the other. Both. That is a desk paying for movement to come. Not direction. Movement. They are telling you Tuesday is going to move. They are not telling you which way. This pattern has now repeated five times in the May series. EP41 it caught the V at 23,317. EP42 it caught the bounce to 23,650. EP43 the day before Sensex weekly. EP44 the Brent crack open. And Friday it stacks the biggest version of all five before monthly settlement. When the same desk repeats the same setup five times and gets paid four times, you stop calling it coincidence. ### *03*Segment 2: Brent below 100 and the peace pivot came back Now the macro. Brent crude is at 99.03 this morning. Down 4.36 percent overnight. Below 100 for the first time in this oil cycle. WTI is at 92.24. Down 4.51 percent. The peace pivot that died on Wednesday came back to life on Sunday night. Trump apparently said the Iran war is in its final stages over the weekend. The market read it. Oil cracked. The rupee strengthened. USDINR opened this morning at 95.69. Friday close was 96.20. The rupee gained 51 paise overnight on a Sunday. That does not happen unless something structural moved. Gold ticked up to 4561 dollars. Dollar Index slid to 99.01. US 10 year yield dipped to 4.56. India 10 year 7.09. Every macro instrument on my screen is telling you the same story. The escalation lane is empty. ### *04*Segment 3: Asia ripping and US at three ATHs Asia is ripping. Nikkei at 65,192. Up 1853 points. Up 2.93 percent. New all time high. Hang Seng up 0.85. Taiwan up 2.82. Shanghai up 0.60. Four for four Asian green. US Friday closed at fresh highs. Dow 50,914. S and P 7473. Nasdaq 26,343. Three indices. Three all time highs. Eight week win streak on the S and P. Last time we had an eight week streak was December 2023. GIFT Nifty is at 23,958 at 8 AM. That is 267 points above Friday's Nifty cash close of 23,719. A 1.11 percent gap up. That is a big gap up. Big gap ups get faded by the writers in the first hour. Almost every time. The setup tells you to wait. ### *05*Segment 4: Friday chain locked the magnet at 23,750 Friday the 26 May options chain on Nifty did three things that all point the same way. The call sellers at 23,700 unwound 27 lakh contracts in one session. The call sellers at 23,800 unwound 12 lakh. Almost no resistance left between the open and 24,000. On the put side, the put sellers stacked 13 lakh fresh contracts at 23,500. They stacked 18 lakh at 23,750. They stacked 10 lakh at 23,800. The biggest single session put stack of the May series is at 23,750. Sellers are leaving the upside. Sellers are defending the downside. Between 23,500 and 23,800, the institutions have planted a support shelf. Above 23,800 the road is open to 24,000 because the 24,000 strike is the ceiling, sitting at 1.27 crore contracts. The magnet for Tuesday close is between 23,750 and 23,800. Straddle at 23,700 implies 283 points either side. Range 23,436 to 23,982. ### *06*Segment 5: Monday trade plan and the 3 to 1 hedge Today is Monday. Tomorrow is Tuesday monthly expiry. We have one full session to position. Do not chase the gap up open. If GIFT 23,958 holds at 9.15 AM open you are already 240 points above Friday close. The first move is almost always a fade by the writers. Wait. The buy zone is 23,800 to 23,900 on the pullback. If we touch 23,850 in the first hour you are at the magnet. That is your level. Above 24,000 today we take some off. Below 23,700 we re-read. Below 23,500 we stand down. On Sensex Friday close 75,415, GIFT implied open around 76,200. Pullback zone 75,800 to 76,000. Above 76,500 trim into Wednesday's weekly. Below 75,000 stand down. Hedge today is the 23,500 monthly put. India VIX closed Friday at 17.82. That is up from 14.84 last week when the hedge was 4 to 1. At 17.82 the same put costs around 55 to 60 rupees. The math is now closer to 3 to 1. The 23,400 weekly put at 30 rupees does the same job for half the cost with a thinner cushion. ### *07*Segment 6: RBI swap Tuesday and the cash flow floor One thing to watch by 11 AM. The RBI 5 billion dollar buy-sell swap auction lands tomorrow on the same day as the three expiries. RBI is putting dollars into the system on the same Tuesday that decides where Nifty monthly settles, where Bank Nifty first monthly under the new last Tuesday rule settles, and where the weekly Nifty settles. That is not random scheduling. They are giving the rupee a cushion into the supply event. If USDINR holds below 96 by Tuesday close, the dollar swap worked. If it does not, that becomes Wednesday's story. Cash flows Friday. Foreign desk sold 4440 crore. Domestic mutual funds bought 6003 crore. Domestic absorbed 135 percent of foreign selling. Tenth session in a row of net domestic buying through foreign selling. The pattern is intact. The flows are not the news. The flows are the floor. ### *08*CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday read Friday's grade. The 23,600 to 23,700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. The Sensex 74,900 stand-down trigger never fired. The 96.30 rupee gate held at 96.20 close. Three out of five testable calls hit. The two misses were the above 23,900 path and the hedge math, which got more expensive as volatility moved from 14.84 to 17.82. Direction right. Levels right. Volatility regime miscalibrated. If you want to follow the live calls and the strategy book, RupeeCase Nifty just rebalanced this morning. Ten new names. Day one alpha number prints by Tuesday close. Streaming free on rupeecase.com. Have a great Monday guys. Buy the dip. Watch the magnet by Tuesday close. This is The Tanmay Edge. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*FII Friday trimmed 6198 short futures and 94,113 short calls first crack in six weeks of stacking * *02*Pro Friday added 1,86,102 long calls and 1,50,735 long puts both sides paying for movement * *03*Pattern repeated 5 times May series EP41 EP42 EP43 EP44 and Friday biggest stack of all five * *04*Brent crude 99.03 down 4.36 percent overnight below 100 first time this oil cycle * *05*WTI 92.24 down 4.51 percent peace pivot back on Trump Iran final-stages weekend post * *06*USDINR opened 95.69 down from 96.20 Friday close rupee gained 51 paise on a Sunday * *07*Gold 4561 dollars up 0.98 percent Dollar Index 99.01 US 10 year yield 4.56 * *08*Nikkei 65,192 up 2.93 percent new all time high Hang Seng 0.85 Taiwan 2.82 Shanghai 0.60 * *09*US Friday Dow 50,914 S and P 7473 Nasdaq 26,343 three all time highs eight week S and P streak * *10*GIFT Nifty 23,958 up 267 points 1.11 percent gap up biggest in 6 sessions * *11*Nifty 26 May chain 23,700 calls unwound 27 lakh 23,800 calls unwound 12 lakh * *12*Nifty 26 May chain 23,500 puts plus 13 lakh 23,750 puts plus 18 lakh 23,800 puts plus 10 lakh * *13*Biggest single session put stack of May series at 23,750 institutions defending downside * *14*Magnet for Tuesday close 23,750 to 23,800 straddle implies range 23,436 to 23,982 * *15*24,000 ceiling sits at 1.27 crore contracts open road between 23,800 and 24,000 * *16*Monday buy zone Nifty 23,800 to 23,900 Sensex 75,800 to 76,000 trim above 24,000 * *17*India VIX 17.82 up from 14.84 last week hedge math 3 to 1 versus 4 to 1 prior * *18*23,500 monthly put 55 to 60 rupees alternative 23,400 weekly put 30 rupees thinner cushion * *19*Tue 26 May stacks Nifty weekly plus Nifty monthly plus Bank Nifty monthly plus RBI 5 billion dollar swap * *20*FII cash Friday minus 4440 crore DII plus 6003 crore 135 percent absorption tenth session in a row Show all 20 05In his words The first crack in a wall takes 10 minutes to make. The first crack in a position takes six weeks. Both sides. Not one or the other. Both. That is a desk paying for movement, not direction. When the same desk repeats the same setup five times and gets paid four times, you stop calling it coincidence. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,232 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning guys. So I am sitting here on Monday morning at 8 AM and I am going to start with the part nobody on Twitter is saying out loud. The foreign desk is covering. Not all at once, not yet, but on Friday they trimmed 6198 short futures contracts, 94,000 short calls in one session. After 6 straight weeks of stacking the short higher every Tuesday and Thursday, the first crack in the wall takes 10 minutes to make. The first crack in position takes 6 weeks. Friday was that first crack and you are listening to the Tanmay Edge. Today is episode 46. Let's go. And while the foreign desk was quietly covering, the professional desk did something I have never seen them do this size in one single session. They added 1,86,102 long calls. And on the same session, they added 1,50,735 long puts. Both sides, no one direction or other. In the numbers that is the desk playing for the moment, not the direction yet. And moment they are telling you Tuesday is going to move. They are not telling you which way but the move is going to come in. The pattern has repeated five times in May series. Episode 41 caught it the V shape at 23,300. Episode 42 caught it from the bounce at 23,650. Episode 43 as well before Sensex weekly. Episode 44 caught it on Brent crackdown. And now Friday it stacks the biggest version of all five before the monthly settlement. When the same desk repeats the same setup five times and gets paid four times, you stop calling it a coincidence. You know what to do. And if you don't, listen to it and I'm going to explain what I'm going to take a trade on. Now the macros. 36%, below 100 for the first time in this oil cycle. 51%. The peace pivot that died on Wednesday came back on life on Sunday night. Trump apparently said the Iran war is in its final stages over the weekend. The market has read it. Oil has cracked. The rupee has strengthened as well. 69. 20. The rupee gained 51 paisa overnight on a Sunday. That does not happen unless something structurally moved. 98%. Safe haven unwind in reverse. 01. 56. 09. Every macro instrument on my screen this morning is telling you the same story. The escalation lane is empty. The peace lane is being repriced. And Asia? Asia is ripping up. 93%. New all-time high on Nikkei. 85%. 82%. 6%. 4 for 4 Asian Greens. US Friday closed at fresh highs. Dow and S&P and Nasdaq, all three indices, three at all-time highs. Eight weeks win streak on S&P. Last time we had an eight-week streak was December 2023. GIFT Nifty is up almost 267 points from Friday's close. Nifty's cash close was 23,719. 11 percent gap up. That is a big gap up in recent times. Big gap ups gets faded by writers in the first hour almost every time. The setup tells you to wait. Now let me walk you through what Friday's chain is saying about Tuesday's settlement, because if you do not read this before today's open you are going to be flying blindly. Friday, the 26 May option chain on Nifty did three things that all point the same way. The call sellers at 23,700 unwound 27 lakh contracts in one session. The call sellers at 23,800 unwound 12 lakh contracts. Almost no resistance left between the open and 24,000. On the put side, the put sellers stacked 13 lakh fresh contracts at 23,500. They stacked 18 lakh on 23,750. They stacked 10 lakh at 23,800. The biggest single session put stack on May series is at 23,750. Remember this. Read that one more time. Sellers are leaving the upside. Sellers are defending the downside. Between 23,500 and 23800, the institutions have planted different supports. 27 crore contracts of calls written over there. So the chain says the magnet for Tuesday's close is somewhere between 23,750 to 800. The implied move from the straddle at 23,700 is 283 points either side, which means the range is at 23,500 to 24,000 on the upside. The pin is in the upper half. The chain has a bullish lean. Now here is the trade for today. Today is Monday. Tomorrow is Tuesday monthly expiry. We have one full session to position ourselves. Do not chase the gap up open. 15 open, you are already 240 points above Friday's close. The first move is always a fade by the writers. Wait for it. The buy zone, 23,800 to 23,900 on the pullback. That is below the open, above Friday's close and inside the magnet. If we touch 23,815 first start, you are at the pin. That is your level to enter. Above 24000, today we take some off. 24,000 is the resistance and the ceiling becomes the resistance on the retest. Below 23700, today we re-read. Below 23500, we stand down and wait for Tuesday's open. But that I don't think is going to happen. On Sensex, the math is similar. Friday's close was 75,415. Opening implies a Sensex opening of around 76,200. The pullback zone is 75,800 to 76,000. Above 76,500 we take some profits off the table into Wednesday's expiry. Below 75,000 we stand down. That is the thing to remember. Hedge today is 23,500 put guys. 82. 84 last week when the hedge was 4 is to 1. 82 the same put costs 55 to 60 bucks. The 4 is to 1 math is now closer to 3 to 1. But still this is a good hedge but you are paying for higher volatility. If you want the cheaper hedge go to 23,400 weekly put at 30 rupees. Does the same job for half the cost and a thinner cushion. One thing to watch guys by 11 AM. The RBI 5 billion dollar buy-sell swap auction lands tomorrow on the same day as the expiry lands. RBI is putting dollars into the system on same Tuesday that decides where Nifty monthly expires, where Bank Nifty's first monthly under the new last Tuesday rule settles in, and where the weekly Nifty settles as well. That is not a random scheduling. They are giving the rupee a cushion into the supply event. If the INR holds below 96 by Tuesday's close, the dollar swap has worked. If it does not, that becomes Wednesday's story. Cash flow wise, Friday foreign desk sold around 4440 crores. Domestic mutual funds bought 6003 crores. Domestic absorbed 135% of foreign selling. 10th session in a row of net domestic buying through foreign selling. The pattern is intact. The flows are not the news. The flows are the floor. Two things before I sign off guys. Number one, Friday's grade. The 23,600-700 buy zone caught the dip at 23,671. 74,900 stand down trigger never fired. 20. 3 out of 5 testable calls hit. 84. Direction right, levels right, volatility regime miscalibrated. Number two. If you want to follow the live calls and the strategy book, RupeeCase Nifty is rebalancing this morning. 10 new names. Day one alpha number prints by Tuesday's close. com. Guys, have a great Monday. Buy the dip. Watch the magnet by Tuesday's close. This was the Tanmay Edge signing off. See you all once again on Tuesday morning. Questions ## EP46, in plain words. What does EP46 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP46, Monday 25 May 2026, 8:46, in 8 chapters: Cold open: FII first crack in six weeks; Segment 1: pro paid both sides in record size; Segment 2: Brent below 100 and the peace pivot came back; Segment 3: Asia ripping and US at three ATHs; Segment 4: Friday chain locked the magnet at 23,750; Segment 5: Monday trade plan and the 3 to 1 hedge; Segment 6: RBI swap Tuesday and the cash flow floor; CTA close: Friday grade and the Monday read. How did the calls in EP46 score?Grade 2/5 (40 percent): 2 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 3 miss. Graded the next trading day, 26 May 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.6Derivatives, Futures and Options for the Systematic Investor8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-6-derivatives-futures-options) * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [StrategyDynamic Asset Allocator strategyNifty Total Market plus debt and gold, 52 stocks, every 3 weeks](/strategies/dynamic-asset-allocator) * [Free module 7.2RBI and Monetary Policy11 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-2-rbi-monetary-policy) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. 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