--- title: "Crude Cracked. Asia Ripped. Today We Buy | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Sensex weekly expiry day and the overnight tape just rewrote the chart. Brent crashed from 109 to 105.73 in the evening session, a 5% crack in four hours. WTI" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-21" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP44 # Crude cracked. Asia ripped. Today we buy the dip Brent crude crashed 5 percent in four hours from 109 to 105.73 evening session * **8:03**listen * **4/6**graded at settlement * **Thu 21 May 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Crude cracked. Asia ripped. Today we buy the dip EP44, 21 May, 8:03 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:03 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/6 at settlement. **4/6**67% **The call.** Sensex Expiry * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **2**Miss Graded the next trading day, 22 May 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Miss**75,500 Sensex buy level missed by 600 pts (low 74,897), 24,000 next-leg path never activated. Direction right macro right levels tight but wrong direction at close. Sensex closed 75,193 Nifty 23,654 BankNifty 53,710. 2. **Miss**75,500 Sensex buy level missed by 600 pts (low 74,897), 24,000 next-leg path never activated. Direction right macro right levels tight but wrong direction at close. Sensex closed 75,193 Nifty 23,654 BankNifty 53,710. 3. **Miss**75,500 Sensex buy level missed by 600 pts (low 74,897), 24,000 next-leg path never activated. Direction right macro right levels tight but wrong direction at close. Sensex closed 75,193 Nifty 23,654 BankNifty 53,710. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[May 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-05/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. 2. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. 3. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. 4. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. 5. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. 6. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. 7. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. 8. **08**CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dipHave a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. Cold open: crude cracked and Asia ripped overnight **99.27**WTI broke and printed I am sitting here at 8 in the morning looking at the screen and I am going to be honest with you. I did not expect this. Yesterday at 5:30 when the market closed Brent was at 109. By 9:50 it was at 105.73. That is a 5 percent crack in four hours. WTI broke 100 Read the chapter Segment 1: what happened Wednesday under the surface **23,659**Nifty closed **75,388**Sensex closed **21,902**Flipped from being short **1,33,782**Tuesday to being long If you missed Wednesday you are going to misread today. Nifty closed 23,659. Sensex closed 75,388. Both green by a quarter percent. Boring on the surface. But under the surface something loud happened. The professional desks on the option chain did something Read the chapter Segment 2: the overnight confirmation tape **5 percent**Crude crashed **1.54**Nasdaq closed **1.36**Germany closed **4.67**Bond yield dropped Crude crashed 5 percent in the evening session. S and P 500 closed up 0.89. Nasdaq closed up 1.54. DAX in Germany closed up 1.36. Even the US 10 year bond yield dropped from 4.67 to 4.58. The bond market is also saying the pressure is releasing. GIFT Nifty Read the chapter Segment 3: third time this season and three reasons to buy the dip **6.80 percent**Three, KOSPI This is the third time this season we have seen this exact sequence. Episode 25. Episode 32. Now Episode 44. Each time the Pro desk flipped to long calls on a Wednesday and the market gave them the move within 36 hours. The first two times we faded the rally Read the chapter Segment 4: Sensex expiry day trade plan **75,900**If Sensex opens **75,800**Holds above **76,200**Calls Wednesday will defend **75,500**Slips back Today is Sensex weekly expiry. That makes the trade tactical. If Sensex opens around 75,900 and holds above 75,800 in the first 30 minutes the writers who got caught short calls Wednesday will defend 76,200 and the magnet shifts to 75,900. Sell premium near Read the chapter Segment 5: the one red chart and the rupee question **15 percent**Gold import duty **6 percent**Kalyan dropped **1,58,000**Buyer see if **96.82**Rupee closed One thing on my screen is red. Gold on MCX. Closed 1,60,042. Down 1.78 percent for the week. The government raised the gold import duty to 15 percent Tuesday night. Kalyan dropped 6 percent. Silver dropped 7. The whole jewellery basket is recalibrating. Watch Read the chapter Segment 6: tanmay's read **23,700**Watch on Sensex **24,000**Have clean run **53,500**Bank Nifty reclaiming Pro desk flipped bullish Wednesday. Overnight tape paid them off. Today is expiry day with a gap up open. Buy the dip. Not the open. The dip. Watch 75,500 on Sensex and 23,700 on Nifty for the level the buyers come back at. Above 23,900 we have a clean run at Read the chapter CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dip not the open Have a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. This is The Tanmay Edge. Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: crude cracked and Asia ripped overnight I am sitting here at 8 in the morning looking at the screen and I am going to be honest with you. I did not expect this. Yesterday at 5:30 when the market closed Brent was at 109. By 9:50 it was at 105.73. That is a 5 percent crack in four hours. WTI broke 100 and printed 99.27. Then I opened my laptop this morning and KOSPI is up 6.80 percent. Nikkei up 3.55. Taiwan up 3.38. Asia is completely ripping. This is The Tanmay Edge. Season 2 Episode 44. ### *02*Segment 1: what happened Wednesday under the surface If you missed Wednesday you are going to misread today. Nifty closed 23,659. Sensex closed 75,388. Both green by a quarter percent. Boring on the surface. But under the surface something loud happened. The professional desks on the option chain did something they have not done all season. They flipped from being short 21,902 call contracts Tuesday to being long 1,33,782 call contracts Wednesday. One session. A swing of 1,55,684 contracts. Which is a fancy way of saying the smartest seat in the room reversed direction overnight and bet the move was coming. And then the move came. ### *03*Segment 2: the overnight confirmation tape Crude crashed 5 percent in the evening session. S and P 500 closed up 0.89. Nasdaq closed up 1.54. DAX in Germany closed up 1.36. Even the US 10 year bond yield dropped from 4.67 to 4.58. The bond market is also saying the pressure is releasing. GIFT Nifty 23,807 at 7:50, up 142 points from Wednesday close. We are opening around 23,800. The question is not whether we open green. We are opening green. The question is what we do with the green. Wednesday they finally picked. The Pro desk added 2817 long futures contracts and reversed 1,55,684 contracts on calls. They paid for upside. The upside came overnight. ### *04*Segment 3: third time this season and three reasons to buy the dip This is the third time this season we have seen this exact sequence. Episode 25. Episode 32. Now Episode 44. Each time the Pro desk flipped to long calls on a Wednesday and the market gave them the move within 36 hours. The first two times we faded the rally into the wall. This time the play is different. Buy the dip. Not the open. Three reasons. One, Brent at 105 means the escalation premium just released. For two weeks every dip was bought by traders pricing crude back to 115. That bid lost its anchor. Two, global 10 year yields dropped together. India 7.10. Germany 3.09. Italy 3.84. UK 5.00. Big single day moves. When bond yields drop globally on the same day equity gets a tailwind. Three, KOSPI up 6.80 percent. South Korea is a leading indicator for global tech sentiment because Samsung and SK Hynix sit there. India IT does not lead this kind of move. India IT follows it. ### *05*Segment 4: Sensex expiry day trade plan Today is Sensex weekly expiry. That makes the trade tactical. If Sensex opens around 75,900 and holds above 75,800 in the first 30 minutes the writers who got caught short calls Wednesday will defend 76,200 and the magnet shifts to 75,900. Sell premium near 75,900 if you trade options. Exit by 14:30. Do not hold into the close. If Sensex opens 75,900 and slips back to 75,500 in the first hour the gift gets taken. 75,500 becomes the floor and 24,000 on Nifty becomes the next level on the right side of the chart. That is the dip you buy. Not the open. The dip. If you are watching cash and not options, same idea. Wait for the pullback. Do not chase the gap up. The gap up is the entry institutions already took. Your entry is the dip. Watch 75,500 on Sensex and 23,700 on Nifty for the level buyers come back at. Above 23,900 a clean run at 24,000 by next week. ### *06*Segment 5: the one red chart and the rupee question One thing on my screen is red. Gold on MCX. Closed 1,60,042. Down 1.78 percent for the week. The government raised the gold import duty to 15 percent Tuesday night. Kalyan dropped 6 percent. Silver dropped 7. The whole jewellery basket is recalibrating. Watch the gold names today. If you own jewellery stocks you are sitting in a duty trap. If you are a buyer see if 1,58,000 holds on gold or if we get a flush. The one thing that bothers me is USD INR. The rupee closed 96.82 yesterday. Just below the record. Did not weaken further overnight. Did not strengthen either. If Brent stays at 105 the rupee should strengthen this week. If it does not strengthen by Monday we have a problem. That means the dollar bid is structural not just oil driven. Cash flows Wednesday. Foreign desk sold 1597 crore. Domestic mutual funds bought 1963 crore. Third session in a row where domestic absorbed foreign selling completely. Domestic flows are the floor under this market right now. ### *07*Segment 6: tanmay's read Pro desk flipped bullish Wednesday. Overnight tape paid them off. Today is expiry day with a gap up open. Buy the dip. Not the open. The dip. Watch 75,500 on Sensex and 23,700 on Nifty for the level the buyers come back at. Above 23,900 we have a clean run at 24,000 by next week. Below 23,700 today we wait. We are still six sessions into a pattern where direction has been right and levels have been tight. Yesterday was the first time direction and levels both lined up. 4 out of 5 strict predictions hit. The one that missed was Bank Nifty reclaiming 53,500 which it did on the rally. The read is being graded honestly. RupeeCase Nifty is streaming free on rupeecase.com. The Day 6 alpha number prints today. ### *08*CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dip not the open Have a happy expiry guys. Buy the dip. Not the open. This is The Tanmay Edge. 04Key takeaways ## 22 things to carry into the session. * *01*Brent crude crashed 5 percent in four hours from 109 to 105.73 evening session * *02*WTI broke 100 and printed 99.27 confirming escalation lane release * *03*KOSPI ripped 6.80 percent Nikkei 3.55 Taiwan 3.38 synchronized Asia risk on * *04*Nasdaq closed up 1.54 percent S and P 0.89 DAX 1.36 risk on globally * *05*US 10 year yield dropped from 4.67 to 4.58 pressure releasing across the curve * *06*Germany 10 year 3.09 Italy 3.84 UK 5.00 India 7.10 yields fell together * *07*GIFT Nifty 23,807 up 142 points from Wednesday close opening around 23,800 * *08*Pro desk flipped from short 21,902 calls Tuesday to long 1,33,782 calls Wednesday * *09*Pro net call position swung 1,55,684 contracts in one session largest flip of S2 * *10*Pro added 2817 long futures contracts Wednesday paying for upside * *11*Nifty closed 23,659 plus 41 points Wednesday inside 23,500 floor 23,700 ceiling band * *12*Sensex closed 75,388 plus a quarter percent green Wednesday * *13*Wednesday third Pro Wednesday call flip of S2 after EP25 and EP32 both ran 36 hours higher * *14*Sensex expiry day open zone 75,800 to 75,900 magnet 75,900 sell premium exit 14:30 * *15*Sensex dip zone 75,500 buy zone with 24,000 Nifty as next chart level * *16*Nifty 23,700 the level buyers come back at above 23,900 clean run at 24,000 next week * *17*Gold MCX closed 1,60,042 down 1.78 percent for the week post 15 percent duty hike * *18*Kalyan stock dropped 6 percent silver dropped 7 percent jewellery basket recalibrating * *19*USD INR 96.82 just below record did not weaken overnight did not strengthen either * *20*FII cash Wednesday minus 1597 crore back to seller after Tue flip died * *21*DII cash Wednesday plus 1963 crore third session absorbing FII selling completely * *22*Direction right levels tight pattern 6 sessions running EP38 through EP43 Show all 22 05In his words I am sitting here at 8 in the morning looking at the screen and I am going to be honest with you. I did not expect this. The smartest seat in the room reversed direction overnight and bet the move was coming. And then the move came. This is the third time this season we have seen this exact sequence. Episode 25. Episode 32. Now Episode 44. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,242 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning guys. m. in the morning looking at the screen and I'm going to be honest with you. I did not expect this. Yesterday when the markets closed Brent was at 109. 73. That is a 5% crack in four hours. 27. Then I opened my laptop this morning and KOSPI is up by almost 7%. 55%. 38%. Asia is completely ripping. This is The Tanmay Edge. You're listening to Tanmay Kurtkoti, Season 2, Episode 44. Let's go. I want to start with what happened Wednesday. Because if you missed it, you're going to misread it today. Nifty closed at 23,659. Sensex closed at 75,388. Both green by a quarter percent. Boring on the surface level, but under the surface something loud happened. The professional desks on the option chain did something they have not done all the season. They flipped from being short 21,902 call contracts on Tuesday to being long 1,33,782 call contracts on Wednesday in one session. That is a swing of 1,55,000 contracts, which is fancy way of saying the smartest seat in the room reversed direction overnight and bet the move was coming in. And then the move came. Crude crashed 5% in the evening session. 89%. 54%. The European markets closed higher. 58, which means the bond market is also saying the pressure is releasing. Every chart on my screen this morning is green except for one and we will come to that as well. And about GIFT Nifty. GIFT Nifty is trading around 23,807. That is up by 142 points from yesterday's Nifty close, which means we are opening around 23,800 today. And if you are watching this morning the question is not whether we open green or not. We are opening green. The question is what do we do with the green. So here is what I am thinking. For the last three weeks I have been telling you the same story. The professional desk has been hedged. They have been buying puts. They have been holding futures long. They have been positioned for the moment on both directions. That is what we call long gamma or buying options or long IV. They paid for the moment. They did not pick a direction. They paid for the move. And the move also came in. Wednesday they finally picked. They added 2800 long futures contracts and they reversed 1 lakh 55,000 contracts on calls. They paid for upside and the upside came overnight in the form of Brent crashing and Asia markets ripping in. This is the third time this season we have seen this exact sequence. Episode 25. Episode 32. And now Episode 44. Each time the professional desks flipped to long calls on Wednesday and the market gave them the move within 36 hours. The first two times we faded the move. We sold the rally into the resistance or the wall. This time I am not fading it. I am buying the dip. And why I am changing the play. Three reasons. Number one. Brent at 105 is not just a number. That is an escalation lane releasing. For the last two weeks every dip in the market was bought by traders pricing in the chance that crude will bounce back to 115 to 120 dollars. That bid just lost its anchor. If you are short, you are now defending without the macro tail behind you. Number two. The 10 year yields. 10. 09. 84. UK dropped to below 5. These are big single day moves. When bond yields drop globally on the same day equity gets a tailwind. Cheaper money chases equities first. And number 3. 8%. Let me say that again. 8%. South Korea is a leading indicator for global tech sentiment because Samsung and SK Hynix sits there. 54% the same day, you are looking at a synchronized risk on signal. Indian IT does not lead this kind of move. Indian IT follows it. Now today is Sensex weekly expiry which makes the trade more tactical. Here is what I am watching for. If Sensex opens around 75,900 and supports 75,800 in the first 30 minutes, the writers who got caught in short calls on Wednesday are going to defend it and do some covering up to 76200, and the magnet for today shifts to 75,900 to 76,000. That is the writer's pin. Selling premium near 75,900 if you are an option trader and exit by afternoon. Do not hold into the close. The maths gets messy in the last closing hours. If Sensex opens up around 75,900 and slips backs to 75,500 in the first hour, the gift gets taken. The 75,500 level becomes the support and 24,000 on Nifty becomes the next thing on the right side of the chart. That is the dip you buy. Not the open. The dip. Remember this. And if you are not trading options, if you are just watching cash, same idea. Wait for the dip. Do not chase the gap up. The gap up is the entry for institutions which already took it. Your entry is the pullback you are looking for. Now I said one thing on my screen is red. That is gold on MCX. 7% for the week. And there's a reason. The government raised the gold import duty to 15% on Tuesday night. Kalyan stock dropped 6%, silver dropped 7%. The whole jewelry basket is recalibrating. Watch the gold names today as well. If you own jewelry stocks, you are sitting in a duty trap. If you are a buyer, this is the moment to see if 1,58,000 holds on gold, if we get a flush down. The one thing that bothers me is USD INR. 82 yesterday. That is just below the record. It did not weaken further overnight but it did not strengthen either. If Brent stays at 105 the rupee should strengthen this week. If it does not strengthen by Monday we have a problem because that means the dollar bid is structurally not just oil driven. Cash flows from yesterday show that the foreign desk sold 1597 crores. Domestic mutual funds bought almost 1963 crores. That is the third session in a row where domestics absorb foreign selling completely. The pattern is intact. Domestic flows are the support under this market right now and they have been there for weeks, months and years now. So the read this morning is straightforward. Pro desk flipped bullish on Wednesday. Overnight tape has paid them off. Today is expiry day with the gap up open. Buy the dip, not the open. The dip. Watch for 75,500 to 75,600 on Sensex and 23,600 to 23,700 on Nifty for the level the buyers come back at. About 23,900 we have clean run at 24,000 by next week. Below 23,700 today we wait. And before I sign off two reminders guys. Number one. We are still six sessions into the pattern where direction has been right and levels have been tight. Yesterday was the first time direction and levels both lined up. Four out of five strict predictions hit in. The one that missed was Bank Nifty reclaiming 53500, which it did on the rally. So the read being graded honestly. Number two. com. The day six alpha number prints today. So have a happy trading expiry guys. Buy the dip, not the open. This was The Tanmay Edge. See you all once again tomorrow. Questions ## EP44, in plain words. What does EP44 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP44, Thursday 21 May 2026, 8:03, in 8 chapters: Cold open: crude cracked and Asia ripped overnight; Segment 1: what happened Wednesday under the surface; Segment 2: the overnight confirmation tape; Segment 3: third time this season and three reasons to buy the dip; Segment 4: Sensex expiry day trade plan; Segment 5: the one red chart and the rupee question; Segment 6: tanmay's read; CTA close: have a happy expiry. Buy the dip not the open. How did the calls in EP44 score?Grade 4/6 (67 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 2 miss. Graded the next trading day, 22 May 2026, against NSE settlement. 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