--- title: "Sell The Rally. Wait For The Base. Long | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Saturday Donald Trump told Iran to get moving or there will be nothing left. Brent crude climbed 4 dollars over the weekend to 113. Bitcoin dropped 1300" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-18" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP41 # Sell the rally. Wait for the base. Long gamma day Trump rejected Iran ceasefire Saturday Brent climbed 4 dollars to 113 over the weekend * **8:43**listen * **1/5**graded at settlement * **Mon 18 May 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Sell the rally. Wait for the base. Long gamma day EP41, 18 May, 8:43 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:43 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 1/5 at settlement. **1/5**20% **The call.** Daily * **1**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **3**Miss Graded the next trading day, 19 May 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's split does not sum to the score denominator; both are shown as recorded. 1. **Partial**on flight-to-quality logic. P5 Tue close near 23,700 magnet TBD pending EP42 day. Calibration debt corridor too tight when Brent in escalation lane $110 plus. 2. **Partial**on flight-to-quality logic. P5 Tue close near 23,700 magnet TBD pending EP42 day. Calibration debt corridor too tight when Brent in escalation lane $110 plus. 3. **Partial**on flight-to-quality logic. P5 Tue close near 23,700 magnet TBD pending EP42 day. Calibration debt corridor too tight when Brent in escalation lane $110 plus. 4. **Partial**on flight-to-quality logic. P5 Tue close near 23,700 magnet TBD pending EP42 day. Calibration debt corridor too tight when Brent in escalation lane $110 plus. 5. **Partial**on flight-to-quality logic. P5 Tue close near 23,700 magnet TBD pending EP42 day. Calibration debt corridor too tight when Brent in escalation lane $110 plus. 6. **Partial**on flight-to-quality logic. P5 Tue close near 23,700 magnet TBD pending EP42 day. Calibration debt corridor too tight when Brent in escalation lane $110 plus. 7. **Partial**on flight-to-quality logic. P5 Tue close near 23,700 magnet TBD pending EP42 day. Calibration debt corridor too tight when Brent in escalation lane $110 plus. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[May 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-05/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live 2. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live 3. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live 4. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live 5. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live 6. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live 7. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live 8. **08**Tag: help the chain settleRupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live Cold open: the market changed over the weekend **95.96**Rupee held Saturday morning Donald Trump posted that Iran needs to, in his words, get moving, or there won't be anything left. Brent crude climbed 4 dollars over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped 1300 dollars. The rupee held at 95.96 only because Indian markets were shut. So Read the chapter Hook: what pro did on Friday **1,17,484**Track as Pro, bought **1,13,445**Same day, also bought On Friday something rare happened on the option chain. The biggest desk in the room, the one I track as Pro, bought 1,17,484 call contracts. Same desk, same day, also bought 1,13,445 put contracts. 2,30,000 fresh contracts in one session. On both sides. When a Read the chapter Tension: the weekend rollover **1.54**Nasdaq fell **78,030**Slid another dollars **23,561**GIFT Nifty trades Then the weekend happened. Saturday Trump rejected another Iran ceasefire round. By Sunday afternoon Brent crude touched 113 dollars a barrel. That is 4 dollars above where we closed Friday. WTI sits at 107. Brent at 113 means Indian oil companies pay more for Read the chapter Climax: the level that decides the day **23,561**Market opens **23,500**Points above **7.4**Strike, traders have bought **23,700**Defended level Here is the question that decides today's trade. The market opens at 23,561. About 60 points above 23,500. At the 23,500 strike, traders have bought 7.4 million put contracts for this week's expiry. That is the biggest single position on the entire chain. Read the chapter Resolution: the trade plan in three steps **80 points**Market opens **23,500**Let it test **23,700**Will come back toward **23,650**When it gets Plan for today. Three steps in order. Plain language. Step one. Do not chase the opening dip. The market opens 80 points red. Let it test 23,500. If 23,500 holds in the first 30 minutes, a bounce will come back toward 23,700. That is the magnet of the chain. Read the chapter What is working: what is not **0.34**Pharma went **0.25**Healthcare went **1.80**PSU Bank **1.79**Real estate Look where the money is hiding. Pharma went up 0.34 on Friday despite the broad sell off. Healthcare went up 0.25. FMCG up 0.54. Media up 1.98. Defensive sectors. Companies that earn even when the macro stays ugly. Look where the money is leaving. PSU Bank Read the chapter FII DII turn **1329 crore**Friday foreign investors bought **1959 crore**Domestic mutual funds sold One last data point and then we wrap. On Friday foreign investors bought 1329 crore of Indian shares in cash. After 5 sessions of selling that was the first positive print. Domestic mutual funds sold 1959 crore in the same session. The domestic side took some Read the chapter Tag: help the chain settle **23,700**Move back **8.30**Every trading day RupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. Today is the day Pro paid for on Friday. Do not chase the open. Sell the bounce. Wait for the base. Go long for the move back to Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the market changed over the weekend Saturday morning Donald Trump posted that Iran needs to, in his words, get moving, or there won't be anything left. Brent crude climbed 4 dollars over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped 1300 dollars. The rupee held at 95.96 only because Indian markets were shut. So the market we left on Friday is not the market we open today. This is The Tanmay Edge. ### *02*Hook: what pro did on Friday On Friday something rare happened on the option chain. The biggest desk in the room, the one I track as Pro, bought 1,17,484 call contracts. Same desk, same day, also bought 1,13,445 put contracts. 2,30,000 fresh contracts in one session. On both sides. When a desk pays money for upside and downside at the same time, it is not predicting which way the market goes. It is paying to be in the room when the market moves. Either way. Pro was telling us on Friday evening that this week is not going to sit quietly. Today is the day they paid for. ### *03*Tension: the weekend rollover Then the weekend happened. Saturday Trump rejected another Iran ceasefire round. By Sunday afternoon Brent crude touched 113 dollars a barrel. That is 4 dollars above where we closed Friday. WTI sits at 107. Brent at 113 means Indian oil companies pay more for every barrel they import. The rupee weakens because India sends more dollars out to pay for that oil. The rupee already touched 96 against the dollar on Friday for the first time on record. Across the Pacific, Wall Street had a bad Friday too. The S and P 500 fell 1.24 percent in one session. The Nasdaq fell 1.54. Both indexes were at all time highs on Thursday evening. The Trump Xi summit produced no deal. Tech stocks bled into Friday close. Over the weekend Bitcoin slid another 1300 dollars to 78,030. Ethereum cracked to 2177. The 10 month low. The picture is unchanged in one sentence. Risk is leaking out of every asset that ran up in April. This morning GIFT Nifty trades at 23,561. Down 146 points. Down 0.62 percent. We open about 80 points below where we closed Friday. ### *04*Climax: the level that decides the day Here is the question that decides today's trade. The market opens at 23,561. About 60 points above 23,500. At the 23,500 strike, traders have bought 7.4 million put contracts for this week's expiry. That is the biggest single position on the entire chain. Translation. A lot of people have paid a lot of money to be protected if the market falls to 23,500. If the market goes there today, the sellers of those puts have to defend the level. Sometimes that defence works. Sometimes it breaks. That is question number one. Does 23,500 hold in the first hour, or does it crack. Now tomorrow. Tuesday is Nifty weekly expiry. On expiry day the market usually drifts to the level where most option sellers walk away with the money. That level for this week is 23,700. So today the market opens at 23,561, with 23,500 below it as a defended level, and 23,700 above it as the magnet for tomorrow's close. That gives us a corridor. 23,500 to 23,700. 200 points wide. Today moves inside that corridor. Or it breaks it. The Friday option market readiness reading was 15.01 percent. By 8 in the morning today that reading jumped to 17.78. The option market expanded 18 percent overnight without a single share trading. That is the movement Pro paid for. Today is not a sit and wait day. Today is a movement day. ### *05*Resolution: the trade plan in three steps Plan for today. Three steps in order. Plain language. Step one. Do not chase the opening dip. The market opens 80 points red. Let it test 23,500. If 23,500 holds in the first 30 minutes, a bounce will come back toward 23,700. That is the magnet of the chain. Step two. Sell the bounce when it gets to 23,650 or 23,700. Do not buy into strength. The chain wants 23,700 by tomorrow afternoon but Pro has paid for movement on the way there. Sell the rally and wait for the second leg down. Step three. Wait for a base to form. It will print somewhere between 23,400 and 23,550 depending on whether 23,500 cracked. Once that base holds for 15 to 20 minutes, go long. Target the same 23,700 magnet. That is where Tuesday wants to close. Stop loss tight under the base. If 23,500 breaks and stays broken, the next level down is 23,000. That is a 500 point air pocket. A simpler version for the smaller account. Buy a 23,500 put at 103 rupees. Buy a 23,800 call at 87 rupees. Total cost 190 rupees per unit. If the market goes below 23,310 today, the put pays. If the market goes above 23,990 today, the call pays. If both happen today, both pay. That structure costs less than the price of a single share of most Nifty constituents. Do not sell options today. The desks that paid for movement on Friday are sitting on the other side of every option seller this morning. Time value will bleed slower than the price moves. The sellers lose first. ### *06*What is working: what is not Look where the money is hiding. Pharma went up 0.34 on Friday despite the broad sell off. Healthcare went up 0.25. FMCG up 0.54. Media up 1.98. Defensive sectors. Companies that earn even when the macro stays ugly. Look where the money is leaving. PSU Bank down 1.80 on RBI broker rules plus higher bond yields. Real estate down 1.79. Metal down 1.93 because China sentiment turned negative over the weekend. Oil companies down 1.67 because higher Brent compresses their refining margin if they cannot pass the cost to the pump. Stay with the defensives this week. Stay away from rate sensitive names. Do not buy the dip in metal until China sentiment turns. One catalyst today. Indian Oil Corporation reports its annual results post close. Watch how the stock reacts at the open. Refining margin commentary will be the tell for the rest of the OMC pack this week. One product launch today. NSE starts trading Electronic Gold Receipts. Day 1. Watch the volume. If retail picks it up, MCX silver and gold open interest will reshape over the next two weeks. ### *07*FII DII turn One last data point and then we wrap. On Friday foreign investors bought 1329 crore of Indian shares in cash. After 5 sessions of selling that was the first positive print. Domestic mutual funds sold 1959 crore in the same session. The domestic side took some profit while foreigners covered short positions. Year to date the domestic mutual fund flow has overtaken the foreign investor outflow for the first time this year. That is the structural backstop holding the market up while Brent and the rupee fight on the surface. ### *08*Tag: help the chain settle RupeeCase Nifty 10 absorbs this kind of week. The portfolio holds through Pro's movement days. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. Today is the day Pro paid for on Friday. Do not chase the open. Sell the bounce. Wait for the base. Go long for the move back to 23,700. Tomorrow is expiry. The chain wants to settle at 23,700. Help it. This was The Tanmay Edge. New episode every trading day at 8.30 AM IST. Streaming free on rupeecase dot com. Also on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube. Like, subscribe, share. Back tomorrow with the expiry read. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Trump rejected Iran ceasefire Saturday Brent climbed 4 dollars to 113 over the weekend * *02*Bitcoin dropped 1300 dollars to 78,030 Ethereum cracked to 2177 10 month low * *03*Rupee touched 96 against the dollar Friday first time on record * *04*S and P 500 minus 1.24 percent Nasdaq minus 1.54 one day after all time high close * *05*GIFT Nifty 23,561 minus 146 points minus 0.62 percent at 8 AM IST * *06*Pro bought 1,17,484 call contracts and 1,13,445 put contracts on Friday in one session * *07*2,30,000 fresh contracts on both sides means Pro paid for movement either way * *08*23,500 holds 7.4 million put contracts the biggest single position on the chain * *09*23,700 is the Tuesday expiry magnet where most option sellers keep the money * *10*Today's corridor 23,500 to 23,700 a 200 point band * *11*Option market readiness 15.01 Friday to 17.78 Monday morning plus 18 percent overnight * *12*Step 1 do not chase the open let 23,500 test in the first 30 minutes * *13*Step 2 sell the bounce at 23,650 or 23,700 do not buy strength * *14*Step 3 wait for a base 23,400 to 23,550 then go long to 23,700 * *15*If 23,500 breaks and stays broken next level down 23,000 a 500 point air pocket * *16*Small account trade buy 23,500 PE at 103 plus 23,800 CE at 87 total 190 rupees * *17*Pharma plus 0.34 Healthcare plus 0.25 FMCG plus 0.54 Media plus 1.98 on Friday * *18*PSU Bank minus 1.80 Real Estate minus 1.79 Metal minus 1.93 Oil minus 1.67 * *19*FII plus 1329 crore Friday first positive print after 5 selling sessions DII minus 1959 crore * *20*IOC annual results post close NSE Electronic Gold Receipts launch Day 1 watch volume Show all 20 05In his words The market we left on Friday is not the market we open today. When a desk pays money for upside and downside at the same time, it is not predicting which way the market goes. It is paying to be in the room when the market moves. Risk is leaking out of every asset that ran up in April. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,293 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning guys. Saturday morning, Donald Trump posted that Iran needs to, in his own words, get moving or there won't be anything left. Brent crude climbed $4 over the weekend. Bitcoin dropped $1,300. The rupee held just below that 96 mark only because Indian markets were shut. So the markets we left on Friday is not the same market we are going to see today's opening at. This is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 41. Let's go. On Friday, something rare happened on the option chain. The biggest desk in the room, the one I track as pro, bought 1,17,000 call contracts. Same desk, same day, also bought 1,13,000 put contracts. 2,30,000 fresh contracts added in one session, both on the long side. When a desk pays more money for upside and downside, at the same time, it is not predicting which way the market goes. It is paying to be in the room when the market moves either way. Pro was telling us on Friday evening that the week is not going to be silent. Today is the day they get paid for. Then the weekend happened. Saturday, Trump rejected another Iran ceasefire round. By Sunday afternoon, Brent had touched almost $113 a barrel. That is $4 above we closed on Friday. WTI sits at around $107 right now. Brent at 113 means that Indian companies are going to pay more for every barrel they import. The rupee weakens because India spends more dollars out to pay for that oil. The rupee already has touched 96 against the dollar on Friday for the first time in record. Across the Pacific, Wall Street had a bad Friday too. 24% in one session. 54%. Both indices at all-time highs on Thursday evening. The Trump-Xi summit produced no deal. Tech stocks bled on Friday's close. Over the weekend, Bitcoin also slid $1,300 to $78,000. Ethereum cracked to $2,177, the 10-month low that we are seeing. The picture is unchanged in one sentence. Risk is leaking out of every asset that ran up in April. 62%. We opened around 80 points below where we closed on Friday. But here's the question that decides today's trade. The market opens at 23,561, above 60 points above 23,500 mark. 4 million put contracts for this week expiry. That is the biggest single position on the entire chain. Just to put it in perspective, a lot of people have paid a lot of money to be protected if the market falls to 23,500. If the market goes there today, the sellers of those puts have to defend that level. Sometimes that defense works, sometimes it breaks. That is the question number one. Does 23,500 hold in the first hour or does it crack in the first hour? Now tomorrow, Tuesday is Nifty's weekly expiry. On expiry day, the market usually drifts to the level where most option sellers walk away with the money. That level for this week is at 23,700. So today the market opens at 23,560 with 23,500 below it as a defended level and 23,700 above it as the magnet for tomorrow's close. That gives us a corridor of 23,500 to 700, a 200 point width that we are going to see. Today's move inside that corridor or does it break it? 01. 5. The option market expanded and 18% increase will happen in share trading that is vol expansion pros have paid for today. Today is not sit and wait day. Today is a movement day. So the plan for today, three steps in order, simply follow these. Step one, do not chase the opening dip. The market opens 80 points into red. Let it test 23,500. If 23,500 holds in the first 30 minutes, a bounce will come back towards that 23,600-700 zone. That is the magnet of the chain. Step 2, sell the bounce when it comes to 650-700 levels. Do not buy into the strength. The chain wants 23,700 by tomorrow afternoon but pro has paid for the movement on the way there. Sell the rally and wait for the second leg down. Step 3, wait for the base to form. It will print somewhere between 23,400 to 500 depending on whether we crack 23,500 easily. Once that base holds for 15 to 20 minutes on a closing basis, go long. Target the same 23,700, that is what we are playing for. That is where Tuesday we want the close to be. Stop loss is tight under the base. If 23,500 breaks and stays broken, the next level down is deep. That is 23,000. Watch for it. That is a 500-point air pocket. A simpler version for smaller accounts is buy a 23,500 put and buy a 23,800 call. That is a strangle. The total cost is roughly 190 rupees. If the market goes below 23,300, the put pays handsomely. If the market goes around 24,000, the call pays up. If both happens today, both pay. That structure costs less than the price of a single share of most Nifty constituents. Do not sell options today in the first half. The desks that paid for the movement on Friday are sitting on the other side of every option seller this morning. Time value will bleed slower than the price moves. The sellers will lose first. Look where the money is hiding. 34% on Friday despite the broader sell-off. 25%. 4%. 98%. Defensive sectors are moving up. Companies that earn even when the macro stays ugly, that is where the money is going in. Look where the money is leaving. 8%, on RBI broker rules plus higher bond yields. 8%. 93% because China's sentiment turned negative over the weekend. 67%. Higher Brent compresses their refining margin if they cannot pass on the cost to pump it. Stay with the defensives this week guys. Stay away from rate sensitive names. Do not buy the dip in the metal until China sentiment turns positive. One catalyst for today will be IOC. Reports its annual results post close. Watch the close how the stock reacts at opening. Refining margin commentary will tell us for the rest of the OMC pack as well. One product launch today. NSE starts EGR receipts on day 1. Watch the volume. If retail picks it up, MCX silver and gold open interest will reshape over the next 2 weeks. One last data point until we wrap up. On Friday, foreign investors bought 1,330 crore of Indian shares in cash market. After 5 sessions of selling, that was the first positive print. Domestic mutual funds sold around 1,959 crores in the same session. The domestic side took some profit while foreigners covered the short positions. Year to date, the domestic mutual fund flow has overtaken the FII outflow for the first time this year. That is a structural backstop holding the market up while the Brent and the rupee fight on the surface. RupeeCase Nifty absorbs these kind of weeks. The portfolio holds through pro movements. com. Today is what pro paid for on Friday. Do not chase the open. Sell the bounce. Wait for the base. Go long for the moves towards that 23,700. That is the pin we are expecting for tomorrow's expiry. The chain wants to settle at 23,700. Help it or see it. Watch and see it getting break. This was the Tanmay Edge guys. If it added any value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. 30am in the morning. com. Also on Apple Podcast, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube as well. Like, subscribe and share to your friends. We'll be back tomorrow with my expiry date. Have a happy trading Monday guys and a safe expiry as well. Questions ## EP41, in plain words. What does EP41 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP41, Monday 18 May 2026, 8:43, in 8 chapters: Cold open: the market changed over the weekend; Hook: what pro did on Friday; Tension: the weekend rollover; Climax: the level that decides the day; Resolution: the trade plan in three steps; What is working: what is not; FII DII turn; Tag: help the chain settle. How did the calls in EP41 score?Grade 1/5 (20 percent): 1 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 3 miss. Graded the next trading day, 19 May 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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