--- title: "From 24,000 To 23,500: Why The Reversal | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Three sessions ago, 24,000 was the resistance. Tuesday it became 23,500. Smart money does not slide a level 500 points lower in one session because they are" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-13" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP38 # From 24,000 to 23,500: why the reversal toward 24,000 is still coming Nifty cash Tue 12 May close 23,379.55 minus 1.83 percent * **8:55**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 13 May 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing From 24,000 to 23,500: why the reversal toward 24,000 is still coming EP38, 13 May, 8:55 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:55 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** Daily * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 14 May 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Hit**. P5 RC Nifty 10 +0.86 vs Nifty +0.21 alpha +0.65 2. **Hit**. P5 RC Nifty 10 +0.86 vs Nifty +0.21 alpha +0.65 3. **Hit**. P5 RC Nifty 10 +0.86 vs Nifty +0.21 alpha +0.65 4. **Hit**. P5 RC Nifty 10 +0.86 vs Nifty +0.21 alpha +0.65 [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[May 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-05/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on 2. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on 3. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on 4. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on 5. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on 6. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on 7. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on 8. **08**CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe.That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Cold open: the ceiling slid 500 points in one session **24,000**Three sessions ago **500 points**Traders just slid **23,500**Points lower Three sessions ago, 24,000 was the ceiling. Today that ceiling is gone. Professional traders just slid it 500 points lower to 23,500. And here is what nobody is saying. When smart money slides a level in one session, they are not predicting. They are reacting. Read the chapter Global + commodities: Brent cracked 107. Rupee 95.63 record. India decoupled. **23,436**GIFT Nifty **12 percent**Crude is up nearly **98.31**Dollar Index **95.50**Record low after breaking GIFT Nifty 23,436 flat at six AM but the macro lane just got hotter overnight. Brent crude crossed 107 dollars. Three sessions ago it was 95. Crude is up nearly 12 percent in two weeks. Trump rejected the Iran peace deal Sunday night and markets are still Read the chapter Pro . FII . Client: pro doubled the Wall at the old floor **22,977**Held futures at plus **30,428**Position flipped from minus **1,84,489**Minus Monday to minus **23,500**AFTER the floor Pro held futures at plus 22,977 contracts almost unchanged. But the call short position flipped from minus 30,428 Monday to minus 1,84,489 Tuesday. That is 1,54,061 more call shorts in one session. Pro doubled the wall AFTER the floor at 23,500 had already Read the chapter Levels in plain language: 23,500 sell zone, 23,200 to 23,300 buy zone, 23,000 deep floor **3.3**Pro stacked **23,500**Secondary ceiling if **4.6**Deep floor 23,500 is the new resistance. Pro stacked 3.3 million contracts of call shorts here. Until 23,500 breaks with volume AND conviction, do not chase rallies into it. 23,800 the secondary ceiling if 23,500 breaks. 23,300 to 23,400 the mid range. Mechanical chop. Read the chapter Screener + sectors: VIX 19.26, 24 BPS below the 19.50 regime gate **19.26**India VIX **3.83 percent**Tuesday close **19.50**Basis points below **4.11 percent**Realty minus India VIX 19.26 at Tuesday close up 3.83 percent in one session. Still 24 basis points below the 19.50 line tracked as the regime gate. If VIX closes above 19.50 today we move from elevated continuation to stress. That matters for premium sellers. Every Nifty Read the chapter Tanmay's read: buy dips with hedges toward 24,000. Hedges not optional. **52,632**FII cumulative outflow **7990 crore**DII absorbed **23,500**Buy zone exits **23,800**Runway opens The bleed is real but it is getting overdone. Three sessions down. FII cumulative outflow at 52,632 crore. DII absorbed 7990 crore Tuesday . the biggest single session of this run. When domestic institutions are buying this aggressively into foreign selling Read the chapter RupeeCase Nifty: alpha plus 0.80 Tuesday. Metals + energy absorbed the bleed. **0.82 percent**RupeeCase Nifty portfolio fell **1.62 percent**Tuesday while Nifty fell **0.80 percent**Alpha plus RupeeCase Nifty 10 portfolio fell 0.82 percent Tuesday while Nifty fell 1.62 percent. Alpha plus 0.80 percent. ONGC up 4.70. HINDALCO up 1.86. The metals and energy tilt absorbed the bleed. The defensive setup paid. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. The Read the chapter CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe. Stream live. That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I'm building RupeeCase . India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow. Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the ceiling slid 500 points in one session Three sessions ago, 24,000 was the ceiling. Today that ceiling is gone. Professional traders just slid it 500 points lower to 23,500. And here is what nobody is saying. When smart money slides a level in one session, they are not predicting. They are reacting. And what they are reacting to is buyers waiting underneath. This is The Tanmay Edge. Season two, episode 38. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. ### *02*Global + commodities: Brent cracked 107. Rupee 95.63 record. India decoupled. GIFT Nifty 23,436 flat at six AM but the macro lane just got hotter overnight. Brent crude crossed 107 dollars. Three sessions ago it was 95. Crude is up nearly 12 percent in two weeks. Trump rejected the Iran peace deal Sunday night and markets are still pricing it. Dollar Index 98.31 firm. Rupee 95.63 fresh record low after breaking 95.50 overnight, the exact trigger marked yesterday. S&P 500 7401 sitting near the 7413 record. India bleeding three sessions deep while the US prints all time highs. The decoupling story is real until crude breaks back below 103 or the rupee recovers below 95. ### *03*Pro . FII . Client: pro doubled the Wall at the old floor Pro held futures at plus 22,977 contracts almost unchanged. But the call short position flipped from minus 30,428 Monday to minus 1,84,489 Tuesday. That is 1,54,061 more call shorts in one session. Pro doubled the wall AFTER the floor at 23,500 had already broken. They also trimmed long put hedge from 2,49,074 to 1,86,337. Took some profit on the puts that paid Monday. Stayed long puts but less defensive. Translation . Pro thinks the move from here is sideways under 23,500 not a fresh leg down. FII covered some calls to minus 2,50,003 from minus 2,98,757 and added 63,354 more long puts. Client added 1,05,032 more long calls chasing the bounce. Still short 7,10,088 puts. Wrong side. Same trade as yesterday. Same losing trade. ### *04*Levels in plain language: 23,500 sell zone, 23,200 to 23,300 buy zone, 23,000 deep floor 23,500 is the new resistance. Pro stacked 3.3 million contracts of call shorts here. Until 23,500 breaks with volume AND conviction, do not chase rallies into it. 23,800 the secondary ceiling if 23,500 breaks. 23,300 to 23,400 the mid range. Mechanical chop. No edge. Stand down. 23,200 the first support test. If we trade below this WITH a hedge in place, we are in the buy zone. 23,000 the deep floor with 4.6 million put OI . heaviest single strike on the chain. 20 DMA broke yesterday which is why rallies feel weak. 50 DMA sits in the 23,500 to 23,600 zone exactly where Pro is selling. 100 DMA around 23,200 matches the buy zone. 200 DMA around 23,000 matches the deep floor. When the chart and the chain agree, the levels are real. ### *05*Screener + sectors: VIX 19.26, 24 BPS below the 19.50 regime gate India VIX 19.26 at Tuesday close up 3.83 percent in one session. Still 24 basis points below the 19.50 line tracked as the regime gate. If VIX closes above 19.50 today we move from elevated continuation to stress. That matters for premium sellers. Every Nifty bucket on Strong Sell on the screener. Banking, IT, Energy, Auto, Metal, FMCG all on sell. Only Pharma and Chemicals neutral. Broad weakness not stock specific. Worst hit Tuesday . Realty minus 4.11 percent. IT minus 3.73. Consumer Durables minus 3.59. Rupee at 95 killing IT margins again. Same playbook as 2022. But defensive commodity sectors held. Metal minus 0.35. Oil and Gas minus 0.40. PSU Banks minus 1.10. When the rupee weakens and crude rises, commodity exporters outperform. That is what played out. ### *06*Tanmay's read: buy dips with hedges toward 24,000. Hedges not optional. The bleed is real but it is getting overdone. Three sessions down. FII cumulative outflow at 52,632 crore. DII absorbed 7990 crore Tuesday . the biggest single session of this run. When domestic institutions are buying this aggressively into foreign selling, the floor is being built quietly even when the chart looks ugly. POV . buy on dips with hedges. Hedges are mandatory. Dips at 23,200 to 23,300 . the 100 DMA zone . and only with the 23,000 put long as the floor. Buy zone exits at 23,500. If 23,500 breaks with conviction the runway opens to 23,800 then 24,000. I expect a sharp reversal back toward 24,000 once this macro lane breaks. The trigger is Brent below 103 or the rupee back below 95. Either flips the tape. ### *07*RupeeCase Nifty: alpha plus 0.80 Tuesday. Metals + energy absorbed the bleed. RupeeCase Nifty 10 portfolio fell 0.82 percent Tuesday while Nifty fell 1.62 percent. Alpha plus 0.80 percent. ONGC up 4.70. HINDALCO up 1.86. The metals and energy tilt absorbed the bleed. The defensive setup paid. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. The lesson . you do not need to call the bottom. You need to size the buy, hedge the buy, and wait. Smart money does not chase. It positions. ### *08*CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe. Stream live. That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I'm building RupeeCase . India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow. 04Key takeaways ## 21 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty cash Tue 12 May close 23,379.55 minus 1.83 percent * *02*Sensex cash Tue 12 May close 74,559.24 minus 1.92 percent * *03*Brent crossed 107 dollars Wednesday open from 95 three sessions ago * *04*GIFT Nifty 23,436 flat at six AM Wednesday * *05*USD INR 95.63 fresh record low broke 95.50 trigger overnight * *06*India VIX 19.26 up 3.83 percent Tuesday close * *07*VIX 24 bps below the 19.50 regime gate watched today * *08*Pro net call OI flipped minus 30,428 Monday to minus 1,84,489 Tuesday * *09*Pro added 1,54,061 more call shorts in one session * *10*Pro trimmed long put hedge from 2,49,074 to 1,86,337 * *11*FII covered calls to minus 2,50,003 from minus 2,98,757 * *12*FII added 63,354 more long puts defensive expansion * *13*Client added 1,05,032 more long calls chasing the bounce * *14*FII cumulative outflow 52,632 crore * *15*DII Tuesday absorbed 7990 crore biggest single session of run * *16*23,500 new resistance 3.3 million call shorts stacked * *17*23,000 heaviest single put strike on chain 4.6 million OI * *18*Realty Tuesday minus 4.11 percent worst hit sector * *19*IT Tuesday minus 3.73 percent rupee at 95 killing margins * *20*RupeeCase Nifty Tue minus 0.82 vs Nifty minus 1.62 alpha plus 0.80 * *21*ONGC up 4.70 HINDALCO up 1.86 metals and energy tilt absorbed bleed Show all 21 05In his words Three sessions ago, 24,000 was the ceiling. Today that ceiling is gone. When smart money slides a level in one session, they are not predicting. They are reacting. Pro just doubled the wall AFTER the floor at 23,500 had already broken. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,225 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning guys. Three sessions ago, 24,000 was the ceiling. Today that ceiling is gone. Professional traders just moved it 500 points lower to 23,500. And here is what nobody is saying. When smart money slides a level down in one session, they are not predicting, they are reacting. And what they are reacting to is the buyers waiting underneath that. This is the Tanmay Edge, India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti, guys. Season 2, episode 38. Let's go. Gift Nifty is trading around 23,436 flat. But the macro lane just got hotter overnight. Brent crude crossed $107 yesterday. Three sessions ago, it was around $95. Crude is up nearly 12% in two weeks. The reason? Trump rejected the Iran peace deal on Sunday. Night market priced the news on Monday they are still pricing it. 31 is trading firmly. 50 overnight as well. That was the line I marked yesterday as the trigger. And US markets, S&P 500 at 7401, off the record highs of 7413. 7%. Europe was ready yesterday. Asia is mixed today. Nikkei is flat. 5%. India is bleeding three sessions deep while US sits on record highs. That's quite disturbing. The decoupling story is now real. Until the crude breaks back below $100 mark or rupee recovers below that 94000, we stay defensive. Now to the part that matters the most. What did the smart money actually do yesterday on Nifty's expiry? Pros, the professional trading desks, they held the futures position at plus 22,977 contracts, almost unchanged from Monday. But here is the move nobody thought about. Their call short position went from minus 30,000 on Monday to minus 1,84,000 on Tuesday. That is a 1,50,000 more call shorts in one session. Pro just doubled down on the resistance at 23,500 and they did it after the floor at 23,500 had already broken. They also trimmed their long puts hedges from 2,49,000 to 1,86,000. So the hedge has been reduced. They took some profit off the table. The puts had paid yesterday and they have booked the puts as well. Stayed long puts but less defensive than the day before. Translation, Pro thinks the move from here is more sideways under 23,500. Not a fresh leg down they are expecting. On the other hand, FIIs, the foreign institutional investors, they covered some calls down to minus 2,50,000 from almost 3,00,000. Added 63,000 more long puts, defensive but slowly shifting. And the clients, they added 1,00,000 more long calls. Chasing the falling knife, that is what they are doing. They are still short 7,00,000 puts on the wrong side and that trade can get trapped very easily. Same trade as yesterday, same losing trade is present today as well. The hierarchy is clear. FIIs are aligned defensive, not exactly short but on a defensive mode. Client is chasing. When this setup runs for three sessions in a row, the bounce that retail is buying eventually comes in but the way retail is positioned, they will never make a catch out of it. Let me give you the levels as well. 23,500 is the new resistance now guys. 3 million contracts of call shorts. When the market reaches 23,500 sellers show up. Until 23,500 breaks with volume and conviction you do not chase the rallies into it. And 23,800 that's the second resistance, after which we could see a 300 point rally. If 23,500 breaks this is the next resistance or the ceiling to watch for. On the downside, 23,300 to 400 is the mid-range mechanical choppy range where no edge is here. The markets would oscillate between this range so stand down on this range. Do not trade in this range. 23,200 the first support test. If we trade below this with a hedge already in place we are in the buy zone. Remember that. So 23,200 becomes the buy zone for today. 23,500 becomes the sell zone for today, but not without a hedge. 23,000 the deepest support that we saw last week. 6 million contracts. This is where the long-term buyers come back. Now the moving averages. The 20-day moving average just broke yesterday. That is why rallies feel weaker. The 50-day average sits around 23,500 to 600 zone. The same level where pros are trying to create resistance and selling right now. The 100-day average is around that buying zone of 23,200. That matches the support I just gave you. When the chart and the chain agree, the levels are real. Remember this guys. And the volatility. 26 at close yesterday, up nearly 4% in one single session. 50 mark that I track as a regime gate. 5 today, we move from elevated continuation to a stress level. That matters more for premiums as premiums could spike very easily. On the sectoral front, every Nifty bucket is showing a sell. So banking, IT, energy, auto, metals, FMCG, all are on the sell mode. Only pharma and chemicals are some sectors which are showing some kind of neutrality. That is broad based weakness, not a stock specific news. 5% down. The rupee at 95 is killing IT margins again. Same playbook as 2022 we are repeating. But the defensive sectors held. 35%. 4%. PSU banks at minus 1%. When the rupee weakens and the crude rises, commodity exporters and metals tends to outperform. That is what exactly has played out. The bleed is real but this is getting overdone. Three sessions down, FIIs cumulative outflow at 52,000 crores. DII has just absorbed almost 8000 crore of cash buying yesterday. The biggest single session in this May. When domestic institutions are buying this aggressively into foreign selling the floor is being quietly built up even when the chart looks ugly. So my POV stays the same. Buy on dips with the hedges and hedges are not optional guys. Yesterday you saw 23,700 and day before 23,800 put worked for us superbly. So the dips I want are 23,200 to 300 range. The 100-day average zone and only with the 23,000 put long as your floor. Buy zone exits at 23,500. If the resistance gets broken. If 23,500 doesn't break with conviction we have to sell and runway opens towards that 23,200 to 300 more. If 23,500 breaks with conviction then we have an open door towards 23,800 to 24,000. I expect a sharp reversal back towards 24,000 once the macro lane breaks. The trigger is Brent. And keep a watch on that also rupee as well. Because rupee once it cracks below 94, 94 we could see either of those flips on the tape. Now RupeeCase Nifty 10 my systematic portfolio. 62. 8 yesterday itself. 7. 86. The metals and energy tilt absorbed the bleed. The defensive setup paid. com. The lesson. You do not need to call it a bottom. You need to size the buys and buy it with hedge. Don't wait for it. Smart money does not chase. It positions itself for falls as well as some sharp reversals. That was your edge for today guys. If this added value share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com as well. I'm building RupeeCase, India's first systematic investing terminal. Link is present in the show notes. You just got earlier guys. See you all once again tomorrow on Sensex Expiry. Questions ## EP38, in plain words. What does EP38 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP38, Wednesday 13 May 2026, 8:55, in 8 chapters: Cold open: the ceiling slid 500 points in one session; Global + commodities: Brent cracked 107. Rupee 95.63 record. India decoupled.; Pro . FII . Client: pro doubled the Wall at the old floor; Levels in plain language: 23,500 sell zone, 23,200 to 23,300 buy zone, 23,000 deep floor; Screener + sectors: VIX 19.26, 24 BPS below the 19.50 regime gate; Tanmay's read: buy dips with hedges toward 24,000. Hedges not optional.; RupeeCase Nifty: alpha plus 0.80 Tuesday. Metals + energy absorbed the bleed.; CTA close: share with one trader. Subscribe. Stream live.. How did the calls in EP38 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 14 May 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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