--- title: "The Wall Fails Today. 24,500 Is Next | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Yesterday I called the pin at 24,000. Nifty closed 24,051. Inside the zone by 51 points. Today the wall fails. Brent cracked 5 dollars 73 cents overnight to" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-06" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP33 # The Wall fails today. 24,500 is next Brent Tue 113.76 Wed AM 108.03 = down 5 dollars 73 cents one session * **8:29**listen * **3/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 6 May 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The Wall fails today. 24,500 is next EP33, 6 May, 8:29 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:29 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 3/5 at settlement. **3/5**60% **The call.** Daily * **3**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **2**Miss Graded the next trading day, 7 May 2026, against NSE settlement. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[May 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-05/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buyBuy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 2. **07**Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buyBuy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 3. **07**Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buyBuy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 4. **07**Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buyBuy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 5. **07**Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buyBuy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 6. **07**Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buyBuy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 7. **07**Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buyBuy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop Cold open: maine bola tha. The pin held. The Wall fails today. **24,000**Wanted to settle **24,051**Nifty closed **51 points**Pin zone **193 points**Nifty just gapped Yesterday morning I told you the chain wanted to settle at 24,000. The street called it a top tell. I called it a pin trade. Nifty closed 24,051. Inside the pin zone by 51 points. Maine bola tha. But that is not the trade today. Last night while we were Read the chapter Global plus commodities: Brent cracked. Asia ripped. US tape green. **113.76**Tue settle **108.03**Wed AM **5.87 percent**KOSPI plus **0.68**Seng flipped green plus Three things changed overnight. One. Brent. Tue settle 113.76. Wed AM 108.03. That is 5 dollars 73 cents off in one session. WTI cracked too. Tue 104.79. Wed 100.62. The Hormuz tail just exhaled. Two. Asia ripped. KOSPI plus 5.87 percent. Korea was closed Read the chapter Pro three legs bullish: the Monday call write was a pin trade not distribution **19,394**Pro covered **39,440**Pro trimmed **24,051**Pin paid Pro yesterday went three legs bullish. Pro covered 19,394 of the short calls it had written Monday. Pro added 5634 fresh futures longs. Pro trimmed 39,440 long puts. Three legs all bullish into the close. Now layer the macro overnight. Brent down 5 dollars 73. Read the chapter FII three legs bearish: 93 percent of the bet was index options **20,918**FII wrote **31,059**FII stacked **70,135**April closed FII minus **51,063**DII plus FII did the opposite. FII added 5561 fresh index futures shorts. FII wrote 20,918 more short calls. FII stacked 31,059 more long puts. Three legs bearish. Cash tape. Tuesday FII sold 3621 Cr. DII bought 2603 Cr. April closed FII minus 70,135 Cr. DII plus Read the chapter Levels: magnet 24,000. Buy zone 24,100 to 24,200. Wall 24,300. Next stop 24,500. **7.22**Built plus **24,300**Major call wall above **17.42**India VIX 24,000 is the magnet. Where the put floor was built. Today the magnet becomes the floor. 24,100 to 24,200 is the buy zone. Any dip into here today is a gift. 24,300 was the hard wall yesterday. 12.61 million CE OI. Built plus 7.22 million Monday alone. Biggest Read the chapter Sectors plus screener: energy reversal. Reliance flips. Auto tailwind. **5.87**KOSPI plus **24,500**Running narrow leadership Sector tape Tuesday close. Strong Buy. Energy. Defence. Consumer Durables. Buy. IT mid pack. Real Estate. Auto. Mid Metals. Sell or Strong Sell. Pharma. Chemicals. Healthcare. Small Cap. Broad Market. Strong Sell combined. India VIX. Dollar Index tracker. Read the chapter Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buy dips with cheap hedge **24,500**Next stop **24,100**Any dips toward **24,200**Any dips toward **24,300**Nifty closes above Buy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 24,500. 24,000 acts as the good support. Any dips toward 24,100 to 24,200 can be bought into. That is the trade. If you bought hedge at IV 17 yesterday Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: maine bola tha. The pin held. The Wall fails today. Yesterday morning I told you the chain wanted to settle at 24,000. The street called it a top tell. I called it a pin trade. Nifty closed 24,051. Inside the pin zone by 51 points. Maine bola tha. But that is not the trade today. Last night while we were sleeping, the macro tail cracked. Brent fell 5 dollars 73 cents in one session. The 115 scrap pin trigger never fired. The 120 tail risk never fired. GIFT Nifty just gapped up 193 points to 24,303. The pin held yesterday. The wall fails today. ### *02*Global plus commodities: Brent cracked. Asia ripped. US tape green. Three things changed overnight. One. Brent. Tue settle 113.76. Wed AM 108.03. That is 5 dollars 73 cents off in one session. WTI cracked too. Tue 104.79. Wed 100.62. The Hormuz tail just exhaled. Two. Asia ripped. KOSPI plus 5.87 percent. Korea was closed Tuesday for Children's Day. They came back and bought every dip. Hang Seng flipped green plus 0.68. Taiwan plus 0.41. Shanghai plus 1.19. Jakarta plus 0.53. The cautious tone of Tuesday is gone. Three. US tape closed all green Tue. S&P 7259. Nasdaq 25,326. Dow futures 49,432. Three records back live overnight. GIFT Nifty 24,303. Implied gap above Tue close is plus 252 points. We are opening above the 24,300 wall before the bell rings. ### *03*Pro three legs bullish: the Monday call write was a pin trade not distribution Pro yesterday went three legs bullish. Pro covered 19,394 of the short calls it had written Monday. Pro added 5634 fresh futures longs. Pro trimmed 39,440 long puts. Three legs all bullish into the close. Now layer the macro overnight. Brent down 5 dollars 73. The downside hedge that Pro just trimmed gets even cheaper to leave off. Pro is walking into Wednesday with conviction long. This is the EP32 callback receipt. Tuesday morning I called the Monday Pro call write a pin trade not distribution. The street disagreed. In one session Pro covered the calls, added futures, trimmed puts. The pin paid at 24,051. Pro got more bullish on the close. ### *04*FII three legs bearish: 93 percent of the bet was index options FII did the opposite. FII added 5561 fresh index futures shorts. FII wrote 20,918 more short calls. FII stacked 31,059 more long puts. Three legs bearish. Cash tape. Tuesday FII sold 3621 Cr. DII bought 2603 Cr. April closed FII minus 70,135 Cr. DII plus 51,063 Cr. Same handoff. Foreign desk liquidating. Domestic desk swallowing. The headline number is the index option line. FII sold 27,166 Cr index options Tuesday alone. Out of 29,094 Cr total derivative loss. 93 percent of FII's bear bet yesterday was index options. Not futures. Not stocks. Index options. That is FII paying for protection. Not FII calling a crash. Client three legs same side as Pro. Long futures plus 1,41,704. Long calls plus 2,15,036. Short puts minus 6,44,326. The trap leg is the short puts. If we rip past 24,300 today, those short puts are free money for the client side. ### *05*Levels: magnet 24,000. Buy zone 24,100 to 24,200. Wall 24,300. Next stop 24,500. 24,000 is the magnet. Where the put floor was built. Today the magnet becomes the floor. 24,100 to 24,200 is the buy zone. Any dip into here today is a gift. 24,300 was the hard wall yesterday. 12.61 million CE OI. Built plus 7.22 million Monday alone. Biggest single day call OI build of the May series. Today the wall breaks. The writers either cover or eat it. 24,500 is the next stop. The major call wall above 24,300. Wing 23,800. Below the wing is the only place this thesis dies. We are 500 points above it. ATM straddle on the 8 May front weekly was 223 yesterday. With Brent down 5 and India VIX at 17.42, the hedge below us is cheap. 23,900 PE was around 50 rupees yesterday. At a Brent crack and a KOSPI plus 5, the same put loses bid in the first hour. ### *06*Sectors plus screener: energy reversal. Reliance flips. Auto tailwind. Sector tape Tuesday close. Strong Buy. Energy. Defence. Consumer Durables. Buy. IT mid pack. Real Estate. Auto. Mid Metals. Sell or Strong Sell. Pharma. Chemicals. Healthcare. Small Cap. Broad Market. Strong Sell combined. India VIX. Dollar Index tracker. Energy was Strong Buy yesterday on a 113 dollar Brent. Today Brent 108. The Strong Buy on Energy was setting up before the macro cracked. Sector reversal candidate. Watch oil marketing companies on the open. Watch refining margins. Auto held Buy. KOSPI plus 5.87 overnight is bullish for Indian auto exporters and the global supplier book. Two wheelers and four wheelers both have a tailwind today. Drag was Pharma plus Small Cap plus Broad Market. Watch if breadth catches up to the index today. If it does not we are running narrow leadership into 24,500. Narrow leadership is fine for a one day breakout. It is not fine for a sustained move. Reliance was Strong Sell on the screener Tuesday. With Brent crack today the Reliance read flips. ### *07*Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buy dips with cheap hedge Buy on dips. Continue with cheap hedges. We are breaking the 24,300 barrier today most likely. Next stop 24,500. 24,000 acts as the good support. Any dips toward 24,100 to 24,200 can be bought into. That is the trade. If you bought hedge at IV 17 yesterday, you are sitting in the cheapest insurance you will see this month. Do not lift it. The next 200 points up cost you nothing in theta because the hedge already paid. The next 200 points down protected by the put is free roll. Five predictions for today. One. Nifty closes above 24,300. The wall breaks. Two. Day high prints between 24,400 and 24,500. Three. India VIX stays inside 17 to 19. 10th straight sub 19 session. Four. Pro chain Wed open holds the call cover. No flip back to fresh shorts. Five. RupeeCase Nifty 10 Day 3 alpha holds vs Nifty. Grade by close. RupeeCase Nifty 10 rebalanced Monday. Day 1 alpha plus 33 bps. Day 2 was yesterday's red. Defensive in red two for two. Tracked live on rupeecase.com. 04Key takeaways ## 18 things to carry into the session. * *01*Brent Tue 113.76 Wed AM 108.03 = down 5 dollars 73 cents one session * *02*WTI Tue 104.79 Wed 100.62 = down 4 dollars 17 cents * *03*KOSPI plus 5.87 percent on Children's Day return * *04*Hang Seng plus 0.68 Taiwan plus 0.41 Shanghai plus 1.19 Jakarta plus 0.53 * *05*S&P 7259 Nasdaq 25,326 Dow futures 49,432 = three records overnight * *06*GIFT Nifty 24,303 implied gap plus 252 above Tue close 24,051 * *07*Pro Tue covered 19,394 short calls added 5634 futures longs trimmed 39,440 long puts * *08*FII Tue added 5561 futures shorts wrote 20,918 short calls stacked 31,059 long puts * *09*Cash Tue FII minus 3621 Cr DII plus 2603 Cr * *10*April cumulative FII minus 70,135 Cr DII plus 51,063 Cr * *11*FII derivatives total minus 29,094 Cr Tue index options 27,166 Cr = 93 percent * *12*Client futures plus 1,41,704 calls plus 2,15,036 puts minus 6,44,326 * *13*24,000 magnet floor 24,100 to 24,200 buy zone 24,300 wall 24,500 next stop * *14*24,300 wall built 12.61 million CE OI plus 7.22 million Monday alone * *15*ATM straddle 8 May 223 India VIX 17.42 23,900 PE 50 rupees * *16*23,800 wing 500 points below current price thesis dies only below * *17*VIX 9th straight sub 19 session * *18*RupeeCase Nifty 10 Day 1 alpha plus 33 bps Day 2 defensive in red Show all 18 05In his words The pin held yesterday. The wall fails today. The wall is not the wall anymore. 93 percent of FII's bear bet yesterday was index options. That is FII paying for protection. Not FII calling a crash. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,290 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning guys. Yesterday morning I told you the chain wanted to settle at 24,000. The street called it and I called it a pin trade. Nifty closed at 24,031 inside the pin zone by 31 points. Mene bola tha. But that is not the trade today because last night while we were sleeping the macro tail cracked. 73 in one session. The $115 scrap pin trigger never fired. The $120 tail risk never fired. And Gift Nifty just gapped up 193 points to 24,303. The pin held yesterday, the wall fails today. This is India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. This is the Tanmay Edge, Season 2, Episode 33. Let's go. So, global, let's look at some global cues. 76. 73 off in one session. WTI cracked too. 62. The Hormuz tale just exhaled. 2. Asia ripped. 87%. Korea was closed Tuesday for Children's Day. They came back and bought every dip. 68 % after two straight red sessions. 41%. 19%. 53%. The cautious tone of Tuesday is gone. 3. US tape closed all green. Tuesday, S&P 7259. NASDAQ 25,326. Dow futures 49,432. Three records back live overnight. Add it up, GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,303. Implied gap up above Tuesday's close in is almost plus 250 points. We are opening above the 24,300 wall before the bell rings. But here is what nobody is telling you. The wall is not the wall anymore. Pro yesterday went three legs bullish. Pro covered 19,394 of short calls it had written on Monday. Pro added 5,600 fresh futures long. Pro trimmed 40,000 long puts. Three legs all bullish into the close. Now, layer the macro overnight. 73. The downside hedge that the pro just trimmed gets even cheaper to leave off. Pro is walking into Wednesday with conviction long. FII did the opposite. FII added another 5,000 fresh index future shorts. FII wrote 20,000 more short calls. FII stacked 31,000 more long puts. Three legs, all three bearish. Then look at the cash tape. Tuesday, FII sold around 3621 crore cash. DII bought 2603 crore cash. April closed FII minus at 70,000 crore cash, whereas DII plus 51,000 crore cash. The same handoff foreign desk liquidating domestic desk is absorbing it. The headline number through though is the index option line. FII sold 27,000 crore index options on Tuesday alone out of a 29,000 crore total derivative loss. 93 % of FII's bear bet yesterday was index options, not futures, not stocks, only index options. That is, FII is paying for protection. That is, FII not calling a crash. Clients, three legs, same side as pros. Long futures, plus 1,41,000. Long calls, 2,15,000. Short put, 6,44,000. The trap leg is the short put. If we rip past 24,300 today, those short puts are free money for the client side. The same retail trap pays out for once. Two desks, same chain, opposite trade. Today the wall picks the winner and we'll see whether the clients and pros win or the FIIs win. So options is telling us a different story. 24,000 was the magnet where the put floor was built. Today the magnet becomes the floor once again. 24,100 to 200 is the buy zone and dip into year today is a gift. 24,300 was the hard wall yesterday. 61 million call OI built over there. 2 million on Monday alone. Biggest single day call OI built on the May series. Today the wall breaks or we are opening near the wall. The writers either cover it up or we see a mean reversion. But 24,500 is the next stop. The major call wall above 24,300. So, wing 23,800 below the wing is the only place that this thesis dies. We are 500 points above it. ATM straddle on 8th May, front weekly was trading at 223 yesterday. 42, the hedge below us is cheap. 23,900 put was around 50 rupees yesterday. At Brent crack and Kospi Plus, the same put in the first hour is going to cost you less than 20 rupees. Education first. The wall is not where the writers want to defend. The wall is where the writers wrote calls because that is the highest strike retail bought. When the macro tail breaks the cap, the wall is just a sticky paper line which is going to break in. Sector tape from Tuesday. So, energy, defense, consumer durables, all were strong buys. IT and real estate, auto and metals were also shining strong. On the sell side, we had pharma, chemicals, healthcare, small cap and some broader market indices. So, except for India VIX, everything is in neutral to buy zone. So, that's the read off. One, energy was a strong buy yesterday as well on a $113 Brent. Today, the Brent is at $108. The strong buy on energy was setting up the tone before the macro cracked. The sector reversal candidate. Watch oil marketing companies on open. Watch refining companies as well. Two, auto held. So overnight is bullish for Indian auto exporters and a global supplier book as well. So two-wheeler and four-wheelers both have a tailwind today that you have to keep a watch on. The drag was pharma plus small cap and some broader names. Watch if the breadth catches up to the index today. If it does not, we are running narrow leadership into 24,500. Narrow leadership is fine for one day breakout. It is not fine for a sustained up move. So keep a watch on the broader market if that catches up today as well. So Reliance is not picking up with Brent cracking today. The Reliance read flips. So watch the open print on Reliance and keep a track on Reliance as well. So my read, buy on dips continues with cheap hedges. We are breaking around that 24,300 barrier today. Most likely we are going to break out of it. Next stop is 24,500. 24,100 acts as a good support. 24,000 is already a good floor. So any dip towards 24,100 or 24,200 can be bought into. That is the trade for today. If you bought hedge at IVs of 17 yesterday, you are sitting in the cheapest insurance you will see this month. Do not lift it out. You cost nothing but you lose on the hedges which have been already paid off but it doesn't matter because hedge is what makes your portfolio strong. If you did not hedge today, then don't chase it. Today is wait day. Let the open print in. Let all the energy, pharma, Reliance, auto settle down then buy the dip around 24,100 or 200 with 23,900 as the hedge. That structure pays into 24,500. So today's calls for in one line. One Nifty closes about 24,300 the wall breaks clearly. Day high prints between 400 to 500. India VIX stays inside that 16 to 19 mark, 10 straight sessions sub that 19 levels. So Pro chain Pro's Wednesday open holds the call cover. No flip backs to shorts so no mean reversion where the pros will be playing. RupeeCase Nifty 10 day alpha holds on versus Nifty. So the data doesn't lie. And what we are looking into is that is the edge. If this added value guys into whatever you are doing, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now and subscribe it on Apple podcast and Spotify and give a five star if you like this as well. com as well. I am building RupeeCase, India's first systematic investing terminal. Link is present in the show notes. So you just got earlier guys. See you all once again on Sensex expiry. That is tomorrow. And a happy trading guys. Questions ## EP33, in plain words. What does EP33 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP33, Wednesday 6 May 2026, 8:29, in 7 chapters: Cold open: maine bola tha. The pin held. The Wall fails today.; Global plus commodities: Brent cracked. Asia ripped. US tape green.; Pro three legs bullish: the Monday call write was a pin trade not distribution; FII three legs bearish: 93 percent of the bet was index options; Levels: magnet 24,000. Buy zone 24,100 to 24,200. Wall 24,300. Next stop 24,500.; Sectors plus screener: energy reversal. Reliance flips. Auto tailwind.; Tanmay's read plus five predictions: buy dips with cheap hedge. How did the calls in EP33 score?Grade 3/5 (60 percent): 3 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 2 miss. Graded the next trading day, 7 May 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.6Derivatives, Futures and Options for the Systematic Investor8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-6-derivatives-futures-options) * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [Free module 3.1The Momentum Factor11 min read](/learn/path-3/module-3-1-momentum-factor-deep-dive) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. 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