--- title: "The Wing Paid. Asia Came In Hot. Tuesday | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Three days off the screen. The 76,750 PE wing under Thursday's short straddle paid 492 points intrinsic at the intraday low and expired worthless at close." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-04" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP31 # The wing paid. Asia came in hot. Tuesday pins the range Three days off, Maharashtra Day Friday plus weekend, Monday tape hot * **9:44**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Mon 4 May 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The wing paid. Asia came in hot. Tuesday pins the range EP31, 4 May, 9:44 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes9:44 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** Daily * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 5 May 2026, against NSE settlement. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[May 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-05/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**Today's plan + sign off: pin trade livesBottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy 2. **07**Today's plan + sign off: pin trade livesBottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy 3. **07**Today's plan + sign off: pin trade livesBottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy 4. **07**Today's plan + sign off: pin trade livesBottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy 5. **07**Today's plan + sign off: pin trade livesBottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy 6. **07**Today's plan + sign off: pin trade livesBottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy 7. **07**Today's plan + sign off: pin trade livesBottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy Cold open: three days off, tape came in hot **24,239**GIFT Nifty plus **3.93 percent**KOSPI plus **4.02 percent**Taiwan plus You just got earlier. Three days off the screen. Maharashtra Day Friday. Saturday. Sunday. Monday morning live and the tape is hot. GIFT Nifty plus 92 at 24,239. KOSPI plus 3.93 percent. Taiwan plus 4.02 percent. Brent backed off the Hormuz peak. 121 Thursday. Read the chapter Global + commodities: risk on, Brent cooling **0.89**Nasdaq plus **3.93**KOSPI plus **40,489**Taiwan Weighted **4.02**Taiwan Weighted plus Start with the macro tape because that is what gapped while we were off the screen. US Friday. Nasdaq plus 0.89. S&P 500 plus 0.29. Dow Futures flat. Tech led, risk on into the weekend. Asia delivered Monday. KOSPI 6858 plus 3.93. Taiwan Weighted 40,489 plus Read the chapter Bonds, rupee, crypto: risk on across asset classes **98.20**Dollar Index **94.91**INR fix Thursday **95.34**Intraday print **95.50**Scaffold floor Gold 4594 down 0.38. Very bearish technical. As crude eases, the macro hedge bid eases too. Dollar Index 98.20 firm. USD INR fix Thursday at 94.91. Intraday print 95.34. The all time low held. Scaffold floor was 95.50. We are below it. Rupee is stable enough. Read the chapter Pro FII client: pro long synthetic, FII covering, client trapped **1,42,365**Pro index futures plus **94,000**Wednesday plus **92,567**Pro index calls plus **66,452**Wednesday plus Participant data locked from Thursday April 30 close. Pro first because Pro flips first. Pro index futures plus 1,42,365 long. Structural long. Up from Wednesday plus 94,000. Pro deepened the bull bet despite the Hormuz panic intraday. Pro index calls plus Read the chapter Levels + 5 prediction set: 24,000 magnet, 24,200 Wall **23,997.55**Thursday close **24,200**Implies open **460 points**Plus or minus **24,000**Nifty settles Levels for Monday. Floor 23,800. Thursday low. Magnet 24,000. Thursday close 23,997.55. Four points off the level. Walls 24,200 and 24,300. GIFT plus 92 implies open in the 24,200 zone. We are opening at the ceiling of the pin band, not at the magnet. Tuesday Read the chapter Education: the wing that paid, then expired **77,300**Sold at the Sensex **596.85**Sensex strike **76,800**Put wing **77,254**Sensex opened This is the trade I want you to remember from EP30. Thursday a short straddle was sold at the Sensex 77,300 strike for 596.85 total premium. Call plus put combined. With it a long put wing at the 76,800 strike was bought as protection. Sensex opened 77,254. Read the chapter Today's plan + sign off: pin trade lives into Tuesday **24,200**Gap up open **24,300**Fade extension above **24,000**Buy dips **23,900**Put side Bottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy dips down to 24,000. Floor 23,800 is the no break level. Tuesday is the expiry. Pin trade lives. Structure is straddle sell on the magnet 24,000. Wing Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: three days off, tape came in hot You just got earlier. Three days off the screen. Maharashtra Day Friday. Saturday. Sunday. Monday morning live and the tape is hot. GIFT Nifty plus 92 at 24,239. KOSPI plus 3.93 percent. Taiwan plus 4.02 percent. Brent backed off the Hormuz peak. 121 Thursday. 108 live now. This is Episode 31 of Season 2. Today is the wing paid recap and the Tuesday pins the range setup. ### *02*Global + commodities: risk on, Brent cooling Start with the macro tape because that is what gapped while we were off the screen. US Friday. Nasdaq plus 0.89. S&P 500 plus 0.29. Dow Futures flat. Tech led, risk on into the weekend. Asia delivered Monday. KOSPI 6858 plus 3.93. Taiwan Weighted 40,489 plus 4.02. Hang Seng 26,184 plus 1.58. Nikkei flat to up on Japan holiday tail. China onshore closed for May Day. Jakarta plus 1.53. Region opened risk on after the three day Western chop. DAX Thursday plus 1.39 leading. FTSE flat. CAC red. DAX leadership confirms risk on. Now commodities. Brent live 108.24, up 7 cents on the day but down about 13 dollars from the Thursday intraday peak of 121 to 122. Iran proposed peace talks Friday. That is the cooling catalyst. WTI 101.79. MCX Crude 9652 down 2.18 on Friday. The Hormuz tail is bleeding off, not extending. EP30 branch trigger was Brent above 125 by Monday EOD. We are 17 dollars below it. Branch trigger unfired. ### *03*Bonds, rupee, crypto: risk on across asset classes Gold 4594 down 0.38. Very bearish technical. As crude eases, the macro hedge bid eases too. Dollar Index 98.20 firm. USD INR fix Thursday at 94.91. Intraday print 95.34. The all time low held. Scaffold floor was 95.50. We are below it. Rupee is stable enough. India 10 year 7.06 percent above the 7 mark. Rate stress is real. US 10 year 4.38. Japan 10 year 2.51. No flight to safety bid. Bitcoin reclaimed 77,000. Ethereum at 2300. ETF inflows 1.9 billion in April. Risk on across asset classes. ### *04*Pro FII client: pro long synthetic, FII covering, client trapped Participant data locked from Thursday April 30 close. Pro first because Pro flips first. Pro index futures plus 1,42,365 long. Structural long. Up from Wednesday plus 94,000. Pro deepened the bull bet despite the Hormuz panic intraday. Pro index calls plus 92,567. Up from Wednesday plus 66,452. 26,000 fresh long calls Thursday. The Pro reset we called on EP29 went deeper, not lighter. Pro index puts plus 2,99,119. Hedge intact. Structure is long futures plus long calls plus long puts. Synthetic straddle on directional long. Betting on movement either way while keeping bullish delta. FII index futures minus 1,71,608. Covering grind continues. Peak short minus 2,88,354 on April 13. About 1,17,000 contracts covered over 13 sessions. Pace dropped from the 87,000 single day record on April 15 to roughly 5000 a day now. Panic phase done. Structural grind active. April cash. FII minus 70,135 crore sold. DII plus 51,063 crore bought. Net FII index futures plus 3876 crore positive. FIIs sold cash but bought index futures. Rotation, not panic. April 30 daily FII cash minus 8048. DII plus 3487. Heavier sell day on the Hormuz tape but the month total still squares. Client max bullish getting trapped tighter. Long calls flipped negative 1,36,814. Short calls now. Short puts at minus 7,17,562. Retail still selling vol short the tail. FII pair ratio. Stock long 8,29,964 versus index short 1,71,608. 4.83 to 1. Index short is portfolio insurance, not a directional bear call. Hedge, not crash. ### *05*Levels + 5 prediction set: 24,000 magnet, 24,200 Wall Levels for Monday. Floor 23,800. Thursday low. Magnet 24,000. Thursday close 23,997.55. Four points off the level. Walls 24,200 and 24,300. GIFT plus 92 implies open in the 24,200 zone. We are opening at the ceiling of the pin band, not at the magnet. Tuesday is Nifty weekly expiry. The 5 May chain implied move is plus or minus 460 points. IV at 15.29. Cheapest front weekly of Season 2. Five predictions for Monday settle. Locking now. Grade Monday EOD. One. Nifty settles in the 24,000 to 24,200 zone. Probability 55 percent. Magnet pull is strong. Two. Floor 23,800 holds. No fresh break. Three. India VIX stays in the 17 to 20 band. No panic spike above 22. Four. Pro index calls remain net long. No flip back short. Five. Brent does not exceed 125 by Monday EOD IST. Branch trigger. If Brent rips above 125, scrap pin thesis. Fade to 23,700 to 23,800. Scale wings. ### *06*Education: the wing that paid, then expired This is the trade I want you to remember from EP30. Thursday a short straddle was sold at the Sensex 77,300 strike for 596.85 total premium. Call plus put combined. With it a long put wing at the 76,800 strike was bought as protection. Sensex opened 77,254. Sold off to a low of 76,258. Closed 76,913. At the low the 76,800 PE wing printed 492 points of intrinsic value. The hedge paid. At the close the wing was 463 points out of the money. It expired worthless. The straddle writer kept 210 net premium. The naked short straddle writer collects the same 210 on a quiet day. But on this day gets blown out as Sensex ran 490 points against them. The wing did not exist for the naked seller. Cost of the wing was 35 points. That is the rent on the insurance. Implied vol at 15.52 on Thursday. Deep sell vol regime. In a 25 IV regime the same wing would cost 150 plus. Three to four times the rent. The lesson is timing. Cheap IV regime is when you load on hedges. Not when you remove them. The wing does not always pay. But when it does, like Thursday, it pays the entire tail. Lets you stay in your structural trade without panicking out at the low. Hedge when boring, not scared. EP28 lesson. Demonstrated live two sessions later. ### *07*Today's plan + sign off: pin trade lives into Tuesday Bottom line for Monday. Gap up open near 24,200 is the zone. Fade extension above 24,300 to book longs. Buy dips down to 24,000. Floor 23,800 is the no break level. Tuesday is the expiry. Pin trade lives. Structure is straddle sell on the magnet 24,000. Wing protection on the put side at 23,900 or 24,000. IV is cheap. Wing rent is small. April closed plus 8 percent. Sell in May is the seasonal frame everyone is reaching for. We test it Tuesday with the chain stacked. If 24,000 holds, the pin holds and May series carries forward. If Brent rips back to 125 you scrap everything. The market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look. Streaming live on rupeecase.com. India's first systematic investing terminal that I am building. RupeeCase rebalance happens today. EP32 Tuesday will cover the new lineup alongside the weekly expiry pin grade. You just got earlier. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Three days off, Maharashtra Day Friday plus weekend, Monday tape hot * *02*GIFT Nifty plus 92 at 24,239, open in the 24,200 ceiling zone * *03*KOSPI plus 3.93, Taiwan plus 4.02, Hang Seng plus 1.58, Asia risk on * *04*Brent 108.24, down 13 dollars from Thursday peak of 121 to 122 * *05*EP30 branch trigger Brent above 125 by Monday EOD, unfired by 17 dollars * *06*MCX Crude 9652 down 2.18, WTI 101.79, Gold 4594 down 0.38 * *07*Pro index futures plus 1,42,365, up from Wed plus 94,000, structural long * *08*Pro index calls plus 92,567, 26,000 fresh long calls added Thursday * *09*Pro index puts plus 2,99,119, hedge intact, synthetic long straddle * *10*FII index futures minus 1,71,608, 1,17,000 contracts covered over 13 sessions * *11*FII April cash minus 70,135 Cr, DII plus 51,063 Cr, net FII fut plus 3876 Cr * *12*Client short puts minus 7,17,562, long calls flipped to minus 1,36,814, trap loaded * *13*FII pair ratio 4.83 to 1, stock long 8,29,964 vs index short 1,71,608 * *14*5 May chain implied move plus or minus 460 points, IV 15.29 cheapest front weekly S2 * *15*Floor 23,800, Magnet 24,000, Walls 24,200 and 24,300 * *16*Sensex 76,800 PE wing under 77,300 straddle paid 492 points at low, expired worthless * *17*Wing rent 35 points at IV 15.52, 25 IV regime same wing 150 plus, 3 to 4x rent * *18*Tuesday Nifty weekly expiry, pin trade live, straddle sell 24,000 wing 23,800 * *19*April closed plus 8 percent, sell in May framing tested Tuesday with chain stacked * *20*RupeeCase rebalance today, EP32 covers new lineup plus expiry pin grade Show all 20 05In his words Three days off the screen. Monday morning live and the tape is hot. Brent backed off the Hormuz peak. 121 Thursday. 108 live now. Branch trigger unfired. Long futures plus long calls plus long puts. Synthetic straddle on directional long. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,102 words, about 5 min to read You just got earlier guys. Three days off the screen, Maharashtra Day, Friday holiday, Saturday and then Sunday. Monday morning live and the tape is extremely hot right now. Gift Nifty plus 92 at 24,239. 93%. Taiwan plus 4%. Brent backed off the Hormuz peak 121 on Thursday and is currently at 108 right now. This is Tanmay Edge, episode 31 of season 2. I am Tanmay Kurtagoti. Today is wing paid recap and Tuesday pins the range setup. Let's get into it. US Friday closed. 89%. 29%. Dow futures was flat. Tech red led the rally on Friday. Risk on into the weekend. That setup was Asia's pre -market opening. And then Asia today morning delivered. 93%. Taiwan is up by 4%. 58%. Nikkei flat on the holiday tail. China onshore closed for May Day. 53%. The whole region opened risk on after the three -day western chop. Europe on Thursday was very bullish. 39 % up. Leadership confirms risk on. Now commodities. This is where episode 30 thesis break healed. 24, up 7 cents on the day, but down about $13 from the Thursday's intraday peak of 121. Iran proposed peace talks on Friday. That is the cooling catalyst. 79. 52, down 2. 38. Very bearish technically. As crude eases, the macro hedge bid eases too. Dollar index below that 9850 mark, trading at 9820. USDINR is trading at 9491. Intraday print on Thursday was 9534. So some cool off over there. The all -time low held. So we are below it. Rupee is stable enough. 06 % yield, above that 7 % mark. Rate stress is real. 38. 51. No fight to safety bed over there. 9 billion in april risk on across asset classes is going on now the participant data locked from thursday's close pro first because pro flips first pro index futures came in long at plus 1 lap 42 365 into thursday's close this is structurally long up from wednesday's plus of 94 000 that we saw so pro depend the bull but despite the hormones panic intraday pro index calls plus 92 000 depend from wednesday's 66 000 26 000 fresh long calls added by pros so the pros reset that we called on episode 29 went deeper not lighter pro index put plus 2 lakh 99 000 hedge is intact so the structure is long futures plus long calls plus long puts synthetic straddle on directional long betting on the movement either way while keeping the bullish deltas on the book so fis if you look at futures at minus one lakh seventy one thousand covering is continuing from a peak minus of two lakh eighty eight thousand on april thirteenth to current one lakh seventy one thousand six zero eight about one lakh seventeen thousand contracts covered over thirteen sessions pace dropped from eighty seven thousand in a single day record closing to five thousand a day now that is what we are seeing panic phase done structural grind active So FIIs April month cash minus 70,000 crore sold. DIs bought 51,000 crores. Net FII index futures plus 3876 crore positive. So FIIs sold cash but bought index futures. Rotation not panic. April 30th daily FIIs cash 8000 they sold and DIs they bought around 3487 crore. Heavier sell day on Hormuz day but the month total still squares. Client side, they are max bullish getting trapped tighter. Long calls flipped negative 1,36,814. They flipped short calls. Short puts at minus 7,17,562. Short puts, massive long calls trimmed equals retail still selling wall. Collecting premium short, shorting the tails. 8321. Long the stock book by 8,29,964 contracts. That's almost 8,30,000 contracts. And short the index by 1,71,608 contracts. That's 4 is to 1 pair. LCU index short in the portfolio insurance. Not a directional bear call. Hedge not crash. Levels for today. 55 four points of the levels walls at 24 200 and 300. Give plus 92 implies in the 24 -200 zone where we are going to open. So we are opening at the ceiling of the pin band, not at the magnet. Tuesday is Nifty's weekly expiry. The 5th May chain implied move is plus or minus 460 points. 29. Cheapest front weekly of the season 2. 5 predictions for Monday settled up. Locking now. So 1. Nifty settles in 24,000 to 24,200. zone the probability of this zone getting hit is more than 55 percent magnet pull is strong here two the floor breaks down and we hit 23 800 no fresh break but 23 800 stays three india wicks stays in the 17 to 20 bank no panic spike above 22. 52 percent on thursday deep cell wall regime so in higher iv regime say 25 the same thing would have cost more than 150 to 200 rupees three to four times the rent the lesson is timing cheap iv regime is when you load on hedges not when you remove them the wing does not always pay but when it does like thursday it pays the entire deal lets you stay in your structural trade without panicking out of the low so hedge when boring not scared that was the lesson we learned on episode 28 demonstrated live two sessions later so bottom line today for monday gap up open near 24 200 in the zone fade extension above 24 300 so 24 300 is that level where you start booking your longs buy dips towards 24 000 so buy on dips continues the floor stands at 24 000 so if there is no break level we could see 24 000 acting as a good support tuesday's expiry pin trade lift structure is straddle cell on the magnet wing that is 24 000 to 24 200 wing protection at put side on 23 800 strike 23 800 iv is still cheap wing rent is small so Keep a watch on that. You can buy that as a protection. April closed plus 8%. Selling May is the seasonal frame everyone is reaching for. We will test it on Tuesday with the chain stacked. If 24,000 holds the pin and the May series carries forward. Packs to 125, you scrap everything out. The market always telegraphs. You just have to know where to look at. I am Tanmay Kurthukoti, guys. com, India's first systematic investing terminal that I am building. Hit follow on Apple Podcast 45 and smash that button on YouTube if you like it. So today is the rupee case rebalancing. We'll talk about it tomorrow. So you just got earlier, guys. Have a happy trading day. Questions ## EP31, in plain words. What does EP31 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP31, Monday 4 May 2026, 9:44, in 7 chapters: Cold open: three days off, tape came in hot; Global + commodities: risk on, Brent cooling; Bonds, rupee, crypto: risk on across asset classes; Pro FII client: pro long synthetic, FII covering, client trapped; Levels + 5 prediction set: 24,000 magnet, 24,200 Wall; Education: the wing that paid, then expired; Today's plan + sign off: pin trade lives into Tuesday. How did the calls in EP31 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 5 May 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.6Derivatives, Futures and Options for the Systematic Investor8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-6-derivatives-futures-options) * [Free module 6.7Bonds and Fixed Income in India8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-7-bonds-fixed-income-india) * [StrategyDynamic Asset Allocator strategyNifty Total Market plus debt and gold, 52 stocks, every 3 weeks](/strategies/dynamic-asset-allocator) * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup) [Join the WhatsApp group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7) [One form, one group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7)Scan with your phone camera 07Read next ## Behind the calls. [Learn, module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market LinkagesIndian equity markets don't operate in isolation. Every day, foreign money flows in or out, moves the rupee, and shiftsIntermediate, 10 min](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages)[Learn, module 2.3Risk Metrics That MatterEvery strategy shows you a CAGR. Fewer show you the drawdown. Almost none explain what the Sharpe ratio actually means.Intermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-2/module-2-3-risk-metrics-that-matter) [StrategyEnergy Basket10 stocks from CNX Energy, rotated weekly. The thematic satellite.Model, back tested CAGR 33.1%, as of 27 Apr 2026. Risk High.](/strategies/energy-basket) Share [X](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=The%20wing%20paid.%20Asia%20came%20in%20hot.%20Tuesday%20pins%20the%20range%20%7C%20The%20Tanmay%20Edge%20EP31&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-05-04) [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-05-04) Copy link [All episodes](/podcast/) Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.