--- title: "Today Is Not A Pin Day. Buy Dips. 24,500 | The Tanmay Edge" description: "IV ripped 48% in one session. ATM straddle 267, 1SD 334 pts. Put writers walked up 500 pts. Call writers stacked a trap at 24,500. Pro long, FII covering" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-21" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP23 # Today is not a pin day. Buy dips. 24,500 is a trap. IV ripped 48% in one session, 14.58% Fri to 21.64% today * **9:42**listen * **4/7**graded at settlement * **Tue 21 Apr 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Today is not a pin day. Buy dips. 24,500 is a trap. EP23, 21 Apr, 9:42 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes9:42 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/7 at settlement. **4/7**57% **The call.** Weekly Expiry * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **3**Miss Graded against the 22 Apr 2026 session; on the public trail from 29 Apr 2026. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[April 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-04/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 6 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **06**RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalanceDay 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark 2. **06**RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalanceDay 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark 3. **06**RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalanceDay 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark 4. **06**RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalanceDay 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark 5. **06**RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalanceDay 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark 6. **06**RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalanceDay 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark Monday map + overnight setup **24,364.85**Nifty closed **24,402**GIFT Nifty **0.43**Hang Seng **0.55**Closed heavy Monday, FTSE Nifty closed 24,364.85 (+11.30). Sensex +276. Bank Nifty +16. IT -0.9%. VIX 19.01 (+10.5%), the first honest move vol has made in a week. GIFT Nifty 24,402 (+60). Gap up open. Asia leading. Nikkei +1.34, Kospi +2.15, Taiwan +1.90, Hang Seng +0.43. Europe Read the chapter Why this is NOT a pin day **21.64%**Apr weekly closed **267.45**ATM straddle **24,031**Expected range **24,699**Expected range IV on 21 Apr weekly closed 21.64% vs 14.58% Friday. A 48% expansion in one session. You do not get that before a boring expiry. ATM straddle 267.45 points. 1SD with 1.25 multiplier = 334 points. Expected range 24,031 to 24,699. A 668 point band for an expiry Read the chapter Institutional read: pro vs FII vs client **1,42,768**Doubled long puts **1,89,761**Short book **1,38,213**Client long Pro flipped back long 3671 futures (from -2128 Friday). Added 7112 long calls. Doubled long puts to 1,42,768. Pro is long direction and long volatility. Hedged for a big move either way. FII sold 1059 Cr cash Monday. Bought 641 Cr Nifty futures. Sold 404 Cr Read the chapter Today's playbook: buy dips, respect vol **24,480**Opens above Monday high **24,400**First question, hold **24,500**If yes **24,700**Long for squeeze Gap up opens above Monday high 24,480. First question, hold 24,400 in first 30 min? If yes, 24,500 is the trap. Seller there first time, retail calls get squeezed AT the wall before they crack. If 24,500 holds 15 min, cover and flip long for squeeze to 24,700. Read the chapter The prediction: six calls for Tuesday **24,031**Expected range **24,699**Expected range **24,500**Strength pulls us toward **24,700**Strength pulls us toward 1. 300+ point range today. Expected range 24,031-24,699. Touch both halves. 2. Pro long futures + FII covering + Asia strength pulls us toward 24,500-24,700 first. 3. 24,500 does NOT break clean. Rejects at least once. That is the trap. 4. Dip from rejection Read the chapter RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalance **1.16%**Monday book **0.05%**Vs benchmark Day 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark +0.05%, 1.11% alpha in one session. Strategy live. Post rebalance snapshot on rupeecase.com. Next review 4 May. Same option chain data, same F&O Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Monday map + overnight setup Nifty closed 24,364.85 (+11.30). Sensex +276. Bank Nifty +16. IT -0.9%. VIX 19.01 (+10.5%), the first honest move vol has made in a week. GIFT Nifty 24,402 (+60). Gap up open. Asia leading. Nikkei +1.34, Kospi +2.15, Taiwan +1.90, Hang Seng +0.43. Europe closed heavy Monday, FTSE -0.55, CAC -1.13, DAX -1.16. US futures mixed, Dow +0.25, S&P and Nasdaq slightly red. Asia tailwind + European hangover = gap up that needs to defend itself by 11 AM. Mean reversion territory. Brent 94.86 (-0.65%). Dollar index 98.13. USD INR 93.12. Gold 4806 (-0.3). Nothing on commodities side is a problem. One tail risk removed. ### *02*Why this is NOT a pin day IV on 21 Apr weekly closed 21.64% vs 14.58% Friday. A 48% expansion in one session. You do not get that before a boring expiry. ATM straddle 267.45 points. 1SD with 1.25 multiplier = 334 points. Expected range 24,031 to 24,699. A 668 point band for an expiry day. A normal pinning Tuesday gives 100 to 150 points. This one is pricing 334 each side. Chain restructured bullish. Put writers unwound 30.39 lakh at 23,000, rebuilt 500 pts higher, 23,500 added 23.58 lakh, 23,700 added 17.37 lakh. Floor moved up. Call writers covered far out of the money. 26,500 lost 48 lakh, 26,000 lost 42 lakh, 25,500 lost 37 lakh, 1.27 crore contracts of upside protection gone. New wall at 24,500, INSIDE the expected range. That is a trap, not a ceiling. ### *03*Institutional read: pro vs FII vs client Pro flipped back long 3671 futures (from -2128 Friday). Added 7112 long calls. Doubled long puts to 1,42,768. Pro is long direction and long volatility. Hedged for a big move either way. FII sold 1059 Cr cash Monday. Bought 641 Cr Nifty futures. Sold 404 Cr Bank Nifty. Net index futures +159 Cr. FII sold cash and bought index future = short covering or hedge reset, not fresh shorting. FII short book down to 1,89,761 from 87,000 peak a week ago. Covering fuel running out. Client long 1,38,213 futures. Short 4,95,272 puts. Short put book doubled in a session. Retail is short vol into expiry and max bullish. Retail has been wrong at every turn this season. When Pro is hedged both ways and Client is short vol and long direction, go WITH Pro and AGAINST Client. ### *04*Today's playbook: buy dips, respect vol Gap up opens above Monday high 24,480. First question, hold 24,400 in first 30 min? If yes, 24,500 is the trap. Seller there first time, retail calls get squeezed AT the wall before they crack. If 24,500 holds 15 min, cover and flip long for squeeze to 24,700. If we fade gap and lose 24,300, flush to 24,200, first dip to buy. 24,100 next buy zone. 24,000 line in the sand, below that map changes and stop hits. Mean reversion trade = dip buy. Every dip into 24,100-24,200 zone is a spot to go long futures with tight stop or buy short dated 24,300 call. The 48% IV expansion has to pay itself back, theta trap the retail short put book walks into. NOT doing today, not pinning, not selling 24,200-24,500 strangle at IV 21, not on expiry day with this much chain migration. ### *05*The prediction: six calls for Tuesday 1. 300+ point range today. Expected range 24,031-24,699. Touch both halves. 2. Pro long futures + FII covering + Asia strength pulls us toward 24,500-24,700 first. 3. 24,500 does NOT break clean. Rejects at least once. That is the trap. 4. Dip from rejection buyable down to 24,150-24,200. 5. Close above 24,400 bullish scenario. Below 24,200 bearish. Lean bullish, put writers do not migrate 500 pts up then let market break their new floor next day. 6. IV crushed 30-40% from 21.64 back into mid teens by close. Mean reversion. Wrong side tells, USDINR above 93.40 + Brent reclaiming 96. ### *06*RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalance Day 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark +0.05%, 1.11% alpha in one session. Strategy live. Post rebalance snapshot on rupeecase.com. Next review 4 May. Same option chain data, same F&O breakdown, live strategy NAV, all at rupeecase.com. 04Key takeaways ## 9 things to carry into the session. * *01*IV ripped 48% in one session, 14.58% Fri to 21.64% today * *02*ATM straddle 267.45, 1SD 334 pts, expected range 24,031-24,699 * *03*Put writers walked up 500 pts, new floor 23,500 * *04*Call writers trapped at 24,500, 1.27 Cr contracts of upside protection gone * *05*Pro flipped long 3671 futures + doubled long puts to 1,42,768 * *06*Client short 4,95,272 puts, max bullish into expiry * *07*FII short book 1,89,761, down from 87,000 peak, covering fuel running out * *08*RupeeCase Nifty +1.11% alpha day 1 post rebalance * *09*Wrong side tell, USDINR above 93.40 + Brent reclaiming 96 Show all 9 05In his words Today is not a pin day. The options market is telling you to respect the move. Do not fade it. Floor at 23,500 is a brick wall. Trap at 24,500 is bait. When Pro is hedged both ways and Client is short vol, go WITH Pro and AGAINST Client. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,440 words, about 7 min to read A very good morning guys. Yesterday nifty closed just up 11 points. Flat, boring, that's what you thought. 30 thought the market had nothing to say. The IV ripped 48 % in one session. The option chain shifted by 500 points. Put writers walked up the ladder call writer has set up the trap and this morning gift nifty is up by 60 points while asia is screaming green if you think today is going to be another flat tuesday you are reading the wrong tape today has some big move in it and i'm going to tell you which direction i'm leaning and why so Today is 21st April, Tuesday. This is the Tanmay Edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Episode 23. Let's go. So, Nifty is trading at 24,360. Sensex up by 276 points yesterday. Bank Nifty up by 16 points. IT was down yesterday. And VIX was up by 10 % on the day, which is the first honest move vol has made in a week. Overnight was not quiet. Gift Nifty this morning is trading up at 60 points. That is a gap up open. Asia is leading. 3%. 15%. Taiwan is up by 2%. 4%. Only Shanghai and Jakarta are red and are both soft. Europe closed heavy on Monday. 5%, CAC down, DAX down, US futures are mixed, Dow up a quarter percent and S &P and Nasdaq slightly red. So we are opening into Asia tailwind and a European hangover that is set up for a gap up that needs to defend itself by 11am. Mean reversion territory. 3. Nothing on the commodity side is the problem today. That removes one tail risk. But I keep calling pins and today is not that day. Let me show you why. 64. 58. That is a 48 % jump in one session. You do not get a 48 IV expansion before a boring expiry. You get it when the smart money is buying insurance. ATM straddle for today is trading at 267 points. 25 multiplier gives us 334 points. Expected range is 24,100 on the downside to 24,700 on the upside. That is a 668 point band for an expiry day. A normal pinning Tuesday gives you 100 to 150 points. This one is pricing 330 points each side. The options market is telling you to respect the move, do not fade it. And here is the part for the direction. The chain, option chain restructured in a bullish shape. Put writers unwound almost 31 lakhs on 23,000 strike. They built up 500 points higher at 23,500. 23,700 added 18 lakhs. So the floor has moved up. Call writers covered far OTM calls. 26,500, 26,000 lost 42 lakhs. 25,500 lost 31 lakhs. 2 crore contracts of upside protection gone. They stacked a new wall at 24 500 and that wall sits inside the expected range. That is the trap not the ceiling. So the map is simple. Floor is at 24 100 24 000 there is a brick wall. Trap is set at 24 500 is the bait. Everything between it is contested. Let's look at some positioning as well to see what is happening. Pro flipped back long to 3671 futures. On Friday they were short. This is a 5799 contract reversal in one session. On the top of that they decided and added 7000 long calls and they doubled their long put to 1,42,000 as well. Pro is long the direction and long the volatility. They are not pinning. They are hedged for a big move either way. FII sold around 1059 crore in cash on Monday but look at where they went. FII has bought 641 crore of Nifty futures. They sold 404 crore of Bank Nifty. Net index futures plus 160 crores. FII sold the cash market and bought the index future. That is either short covering or a hedge or a reset. Either way it is not fresh shorting. The FII short book in futures is down to 1 lakh 89 000 contracts from 87 000 peak a week ago. The covering trade is running out of fuel. So let's look at clients as well. Client is where the setup gets spicy. Client is long 140 000 futures. Client is short 495 000 puts. The short put book doubled in a session. The retail is short vol into the expiry. Retail is max bullish and retail has been wrong at every turn since the past few days. When Pro is hedged both ways and the client is short vol and long direction, the smart trade is go with the pros and against the client. That means expect a move, do not sell premium naked and lean the bias from pros futures book. So pro is long. So DII at plus 66 000. So this is an overnight tape what we are looking at. And here's my view. Buy on dips continues. Expect volatility, mean reversion inside a wider range. One big move before the day closes. The gap up above yesterday's high of 24,480 will stand up first resistance. First question is whether we hold 24,400 in the first 30 minutes or not. If yes, 24,500 is the trap and I'm a seller there the first time because retail calls get squeezed at the wall before the crack through happens. If 24 500 holds and they cover and flip the long for the squeeze to happen and the rally to continue to 24 700 that would be a short covering rally and that would be coming in fast. If we fade and the gap loses to 24 300, expect the flush down to 24 200 for sure. That is your first dip to buy. 24 100 is the next buy zone and 24 000 is like the bottom what we could see below which everything changes. The mean reversal trade today is to buy the dip. Vol gets expensive. Every dip into 24 100 to 300 zone in this on the spot is either to go long with the futures with the tight stop or buy short dated 24 300 call and ride the vol crush back up. The 48 percent IV expansion has to pay itself back. That is the theta trap the retail short put book is walking into from the other side. What I am not doing today is I am not playing for the pinning. I am not selling 24 200 and 24 500 strangle that is a 300 point strangle. Not at IV of 21, not with futures book that is stretched, not on an expiry day which is much the chain migration what we are seeing. Big moves happen when positioning is crowded. Positioning is crowded right now. Keep a watch on that, guys. Tuesday's call. One. We see a 300 plus point range. Expected range was 24,050 to 24,700. I think we touch both in the middle. Two, pro long futures plus FII short covering plus Asia's strength pull us towards that 24,500 to 24,700 zone first. Three. 24,500 does not break clean. It rejects at least once. That is the trap. Four. The dip from the rejection is viable to 24,150 to 350 levels. Five. Close comes in above 24,400 on bullish scenario. Below 24,200 on the bearish scenario. My lean is bullish because put writers do not migrate up by 500 points and let the market break their new floor the next day. 6 back into the mid teens that is around 15 16 level. That is where the short straddle sellers who waited for the pop get paid. Not the ones who sold on Friday at 14 and a half to 15. What if I'm wrong. I'm wrong because the crude pullback was not deep enough, the dollar ticked up and global risk turned on us on the mid session. 40 and Brent reclaiming 96 is going to be the key. RupeeCase Nifty book is on day two post rebalance. AXISBANK and TECHM are the new adds. DRREDDY and JSW are out. 05. The strategy is live. com. You can go and have a check. Next review is on May 4th. com. The episode streams there too as well. So prediction trail has been going well. Today's edge is simple. Buy the dips, respect the volatility, expect a move, not a pin, go with the pros and play against the client. So full data snapshot I have added and this was today's edge for you guys. See you again once again on April 22nd Wednesday. Till then have a happy expiry and stay smart, stay safe and happy trading for today. Questions ## EP23, in plain words. What does EP23 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP23, Tuesday 21 Apr 2026, 9:42, in 6 chapters: Monday map + overnight setup; Why this is NOT a pin day; Institutional read: pro vs FII vs client; Today's playbook: buy dips, respect vol; The prediction: six calls for Tuesday; RupeeCase Nifty: day 2 post rebalance. How did the calls in EP23 score?Grade 4/7 (57 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 3 miss. Graded against the 22 Apr 2026 session. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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