--- title: "The Pause Before the Storm, FII Stopped | The Tanmay Edge" description: "GIFT 23,914 above gamma flip. TCS +29% QoQ. Straddle 391, IV BUY | headline is a lie, options are truth. Fii covered 32,035 futures contracts in a single day" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-10" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP17 # The pause before the storm FII stopped covering. Client went all in. TCS beat. Negative gamma Friday. Fii covered 32,035 futures contracts in a single day, the biggest singl * **8:59**listen * **Pre trail**before the public trail * **Fri 10 Apr 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The pause before the storm EP17, 10 Apr, 8:59 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes8:59 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## Before the public trail. This episode aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it carries no grade on the five call scale and is not counted in the season hit rate. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti 2. **07**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti 3. **07**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti 4. **07**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti 5. **07**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti 6. **07**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti 7. **07**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti Market overview SEGMENT 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES Let’s set the global stage. GIFT Nifty awaiting morning data. Bias to be filled with market analysis. 1. GIFT Nifty CMP (10 Apr morning) 2. US close 9 Apr + Asia open 10 Apr 9. Global markets overnight update Read the chapter F&O positioning **37,656**Short puts, from plus **28,233**Long puts to minus **32,035**FII covered **2,59,435**Came down from minus SEGMENT 2: PRO / FII / CLIENT (THE EDGE) F&O positioning data from 9 April below: Here’s what we know going in. As of 8 April, the ceasefire rally day: Pro flipped to short puts, from plus 37,656 long puts to minus 28,233 short puts. That’s a bullish flip. Read the chapter Options & GEX analysis **0.93%**Nifty down points, minus **76,632**Sensex expiry closed **931 points**Expiry closed **1.20%**Points, minus So what broke? Banks. What held? Everything else. The screener just flipped to SELL. The IV signal just flipped to BUY. And Nifty is sitting right in the negative gamma zone. Friday with negative gamma and a fresh sell signal? That’s not a day to guess. That’s Read the chapter Commodities & FX **96.78**Crude, Brent **2%**Yesterday morning, bouncing **94.68**Crash low **4,723**Gold flat Crude, Brent was at 96.78 yesterday morning, bouncing 2% from the crash low of 94.68. Day 3 of the ceasefire trade. Gold flat at 4,723 dollars. Silver was the outlier, MCX silver up 3.69% to 2,39,894. Dollar index back above 99. Rupee at 92.58, still Read the chapter Sector watch **3,258**Defence, algo score **10%**That’s significant, Reliance **1.54%**Capital markets **1.75%**Private banks SEGMENT 4: SCREENER + SECTORS The screener is telling a clear sector story. Strong Buy: Defence, algo score 3,258. Metal, 1,811. Energy, 477. IT, 436. Pharma, 64. These are the sectors where the data says momentum is building. Strong Sell: Reliance. Negative Read the chapter Trading plan & levels **99%**Flow, and levels India’s pre-market edge, your daily dose of data, flow, and levels that 99% of traders don’t see before the bell. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 17. Let’s go. What does this combination mean? Sell the underlying, buy options. That’s a hedge setup. The Read the chapter RupeeCase update **874 points**Com, @TanmayKurtkoti COLD OPEN **1.75%**Private banks **1.56%**Yet, defence rallied LINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti COLD OPEN 874 points up. 222 points down. That’s not a reversal, that’s the market catching its breath. But here’s the number that matters: 0. Zero. That’s how many Bank Nifty stocks closed green Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Market overview SEGMENT 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES Let’s set the global stage. GIFT Nifty awaiting morning data. Bias to be filled with market analysis. 1. GIFT Nifty CMP (10 Apr morning) 2. US close 9 Apr + Asia open 10 Apr 9. Global markets overnight update ### *02*F&O positioning SEGMENT 2: PRO / FII / CLIENT (THE EDGE) F&O positioning data from 9 April below: Here’s what we know going in. As of 8 April, the ceasefire rally day: Pro flipped to short puts, from plus 37,656 long puts to minus 28,233 short puts. That’s a bullish flip. When Pro starts selling puts, they’re collecting premium on the downside. They don’t think the market is going lower. FII covered 32,035 futures contracts in a single day, the biggest single-day cover in Season 2. Net short came down from minus 2,59,435 to minus 2,27,400. Still massively short. But the direction changed. 3 consecutive days of net buying in derivatives. April is a net buyer month so far. Client booked profits on 1,05,605 short put contracts. They made money on the gap-up and took it off the table. Smart exit. Now, the big question for today’s data: did FII covering continue on the Sensex expiry? Or did the pullback pause the unwind? 9 Apr participant-wise positioning: FII futures, Pro positioning, Client, FII cash vs DII cash posted below. FII short position journey: Peaked at minus 2,68,462 on 6 April. Covered 9,027 on the 7th. Covered 32,035 on the 8th. Total covered from peak: 41,062 in 2 days. Data pending for 9 Apr update. The target I’m watching, below minus 2,00,000 is a structural shift. Below minus 1,50,000 is full capitulation. 4. 9 Apr F&O positioning (Pro/FII/Client), CRITICAL 5. 9 Apr FII/DII Cash 6. FII short position journey, 9 Apr number ### *03*Options & GEX analysis So what broke? Banks. What held? Everything else. The screener just flipped to SELL. The IV signal just flipped to BUY. And Nifty is sitting right in the negative gamma zone. Friday with negative gamma and a fresh sell signal? That’s not a day to guess. That’s a day to be prepared. INTRO STING Yesterday’s close: Nifty 23,775, down 222 points, minus 0.93%. Sensex expiry closed at 76,632, down 931 points, minus 1.20%. The call wall at 77,500 held like a ceiling. Sellers won that expiry decisively. US market close and Asia opening data to follow from morning broadcast. SEGMENT 3: OPTIONS + LEVELS This is where it gets interesting for Friday. The screener, both Nifty and Sensex, flipped to SELL yesterday at close. Nifty signal price 23,816. Projected 23,742. Sensex signal 76,892, projected 76,532. This is the first sell signal since the rally began. But here’s the flip within the flip. The IV signal went from SELL, which we’ve been riding for 2 days, to BUY. Nifty IV at 19.38. Down 2.7%. India VIX at 19.08. After crushing from 29.50 down to 19, that’s a 35% IV decline in 3 days, options are now cheap enough to buy again. Now the GEX. Next expiry is 13 April, Nifty weekly. Gamma flip zone: 23,850. Nifty closed at 23,775, that’s 75 points BELOW the flip. We are in negative gamma territory. What does negative gamma mean? Market makers are short gamma here. When the market falls, they have to sell to hedge. When it rises, they buy. They amplify the move in both directions. Think of it like this, the market makers become trend followers instead of mean-reverters. Moves get bigger, not smaller. 24,000, call wall. 7.7 million OI. Plus 1,843 positive GEX. This is the ceiling. Yesterday’s open. Above this and the squeeze resumes. 23,850, gamma flip. Above this, market calms down. Below this, moves amplify. 23,700, secondary support. Minus 888 GEX. 23,500, max negative GEX at minus 1,456. If we get here, it’s a magnet. The strongest support the chain shows. Straddle for 13 April: 406 points. That’s an implied range of about 812 points, roughly 23,369 to 24,181. Wide. Education: Let me explain what negative gamma actually does to your Friday. When the gamma exposure at the current strike is negative, market makers are positioned in a way where they have to trade WITH the trend. Market drops, they sell. Market rallies, they buy. This is the opposite of what happens in positive gamma, where they absorb moves and create pin zones. So on a negative gamma Friday, you’re more likely to see a trending day than a choppy one. If we gap down, the move extends. If we gap up through 23,850, the character changes and things calm down. That’s the line. 23,850. The data says direction is down, screener is SELL. But IV is cheap, BUY options. And we’re in negative gamma, moves will be amplified. That combination tells me: don’t sell naked. If you’re bearish, buy puts or use spreads. If you’re bullish, this is a dip-buy with a stop. The one thing NOT to do today is sit in the middle without a plan. ### *04*Commodities & FX Crude, Brent was at 96.78 yesterday morning, bouncing 2% from the crash low of 94.68. Day 3 of the ceasefire trade. Gold flat at 4,723 dollars. Silver was the outlier, MCX silver up 3.69% to 2,39,894. Dollar index back above 99. Rupee at 92.58, still strengthening. Commodities prices to be updated from morning data. 3. Updated commodities (Brent, Gold, Silver) ### *05*Sector watch SEGMENT 4: SCREENER + SECTORS The screener is telling a clear sector story. Strong Buy: Defence, algo score 3,258. Metal, 1,811. Energy, 477. IT, 436. Pharma, 64. These are the sectors where the data says momentum is building. Strong Sell: Reliance. Negative algo score. Sell across slow, fast, and combined. That’s significant, Reliance is 10% of Nifty’s weight. Look at what happened yesterday. Defence up 1.56%. Capital markets up 1.54%. Metals up 1.25%. CPSE up 1.22%. Energy, pharma, healthcare, all green. Even midcaps and smallcaps eked out green closes. And then banks. Private banks down 1.75%. Bank Nifty down 1.58% with zero, zero, advances out of 14 stocks. PSU banks down 1.27%. Financial services down 1.41%. This is not a market selloff. This is a bank selloff. The Sensex expiry forced position unwinds in the most heavily traded names, and those are banks. HDFC Bank, ICICI, Axis, SBI, these are the ones with the highest F&O OI. TCS Q4 results and IT sector momentum data pending. RupeeCase: The 10-stock momentum model held up well in yesterday’s rotation. When banks crashed and energy, metals, and pharma held, that’s exactly what diversified momentum does. It doesn’t chase one sector. It follows where the flow is going. Next rebalance: 20 April. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. CTA CLOSE ### *06*Trading plan & levels India’s pre-market edge, your daily dose of data, flow, and levels that 99% of traders don’t see before the bell. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 17. Let’s go. What does this combination mean? Sell the underlying, buy options. That’s a hedge setup. The data is saying: direction is down, but volatility is about to expand. Key levels: SEGMENT 5: TANMAY’S READ 7. TCS Q4 results + market reaction 8. TK’s bias / named setup ### *07*RupeeCase update LINKS: rupeecase.com, invest.rupeecase.com, @TanmayKurtkoti COLD OPEN 874 points up. 222 points down. That’s not a reversal, that’s the market catching its breath. But here’s the number that matters: 0. Zero. That’s how many Bank Nifty stocks closed green yesterday. All 14, red. Private banks down 1.75%. And yet, defence rallied 1.56%. Metals up 1.25%. Pharma, IT, energy, all green. That’s your edge for today. If this added value, share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I’m building RupeeCase, India’s systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. The data doesn’t lie. Narratives do. You just got earlier. See you Monday. 04Key takeaways ## 2 things to carry into the session. * *01*Fii covered 32,035 futures contracts in a single day, the biggest singl * *02*Straddle for 13 april: 406 points 05In his words This is not a market selloff. This is a bank selloff You just got earlier. See you Monday Questions ## EP17, in plain words. What does EP17 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP17, Friday 10 Apr 2026, 8:59, in 7 chapters: Market overview; F&O positioning; Options & GEX analysis; Commodities & FX; Sector watch; Trading plan & levels; RupeeCase update. How did the calls in EP17 score?It aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it is not graded on the five call scale and not counted in the season hit rate. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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