--- title: "FII Covered 32,000 Contracts And the | The Tanmay Edge" description: "FII covered 32,000 contracts | and the squeeze isn't over. Sensex weekly expiry analysis. Fii covered 32,000 contracts, and the squeeze isn’t over" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-09" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP16 # FII covered 32,000 contracts and the squeeze isn’t over SENSEX weekly expiry Fii covered 32,000 contracts, and the squeeze isn’t over description: * **6:40**listen * **Pre trail**before the public trail * **Thu 9 Apr 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing FII covered 32,000 contracts and the squeeze isn’t over EP16, 9 Apr, 6:40 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes6:40 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## Before the public trail. This episode aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it carries no grade on the five call scale and is not counted in the season hit rate. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube 2. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube 3. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube 4. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube 5. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube 6. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube 7. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube 8. **08**RupeeCase updateLINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube Market overview **1,000**Straddle is pricing **94 points**Nifty is barely **24,005**GIFT Nifty this morning **23,997**Yesterday’s close Today is Sensex weekly expiry. The straddle is pricing 1,000 points of movement. And GIFT Nifty is barely down 94 points from yesterday’s monster close. So the question is, was yesterday the squeeze, or was it just the beginning of the squeeze? INTRO This is Read the chapter F&O positioning **37,656**Pro was sitting **28,233**Those and went **32,035**FII, covered **2,59,435**NOI went SEG 2, PRO / FII / CLIENT This is the story today. And I need you to pay attention because what happened yesterday in the F&O data is the kind of thing that only shows up a few times a year. Pro traders, they flipped. 2 days ago Pro was sitting on 37,656 long Read the chapter Options & GEX analysis **1.25**Implied range **1,000**Price, that gives us **76,600**Pricing range **78,600**Pricing range SEG 3, OPTIONS + LEVELS Sensex straddle is at 800. I calculate the implied range as 1.25 times the straddle price, that gives us 1,000 points. With Sensex at 77,600, the market is pricing a range of 76,600 to 78,600. On Nifty terms, that’s roughly 23,700 to Read the chapter Commodities & FX **99.08**Dollar Index **$4,723,**Gold international **1,51,619**MCX Gold **2,39,894**Silver MCX Dollar Index, 99.08, back above 99. Yesterday it broke below for the first time in weeks. Today it’s reclaiming. That’s a mild headwind for rupee and EM flows. Gold international, $4,723, basically flat. MCX Gold at 1,51,619, down 157. Silver MCX at 2,39,894 Read the chapter Sector watch **$94.68**Yesterday’s crash close **8,860**MCX Crude **72,965**Signal triggered **77,863**Projected price Now here’s what I’m watching closely, crude bounced. Brent at $96.78, up 2.14% from yesterday’s crash close of $94.68. MCX Crude at 8,860, basically flat. Is this a dead cat bounce, or is the ceasefire trade fading? Keep this in mind for the sector discussion. Read the chapter Trading plan & levels Sensex weekly expiry today. And the setup is interesting. SEG 5, TANMAY’S READ Read the chapter Education Quick education point, why Day 2 after a gap is often better for selling premium than Day 1. Read the chapter RupeeCase update **32,000**Music, YouTube COLD OPEN **2,27,400**They’re still short **5.67%**Drove the rally **2.52%**COALINDIA gave back LINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube COLD OPEN 32,000 contracts. That’s how many FII covered yesterday. In 1 session. Biggest single-day unwind we’ve seen all season. And they’re still short 2,27,400 contracts. RupeeCase Nifty Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Market overview Today is Sensex weekly expiry. The straddle is pricing 1,000 points of movement. And GIFT Nifty is barely down 94 points from yesterday’s monster close. So the question is, was yesterday the squeeze, or was it just the beginning of the squeeze? INTRO This is The Tanmay Edge, India’s pre-market edge, every trading day. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 16. Sensex weekly expiry. Let’s go. SEG 1, GLOBAL + COMMODITIES GIFT Nifty this morning, 24,005. Down 94 from yesterday’s close of 23,997. That’s a nothing pullback after an 874-point rally. The market is digesting, not reversing. US markets, S&P +2.51%, Nasdaq +2.80%. Dow flat. Europe was massive, DAX +4.81%, CAC +4.30%, FTSE +2.45%. The ceasefire rally went global. Asia this morning, profit booking. Nikkei -0.50%, Hang Seng -0.52%, KOSPI -1.05%. After yesterday’s 5-8% surges, this is completely normal. You don’t go vertical 2 days in a row. ### *02*F&O positioning SEG 2, PRO / FII / CLIENT This is the story today. And I need you to pay attention because what happened yesterday in the F&O data is the kind of thing that only shows up a few times a year. Pro traders, they flipped. 2 days ago Pro was sitting on 37,656 long puts, hedging, cautious. Yesterday they dumped those and went to -28,233 short puts. That’s a full flip from defensive to aggressive bullish. When I say ‘short puts’, Pro is now selling puts, meaning they believe the market won’t fall. They’re collecting premium and betting on sideways-to-up. Pro flips first. Always watch Pro. FII, covered 32,035 futures contracts in 1 session. NOI went from -2,59,435 to -2,27,400. That’s the biggest single-day cover in Season 2. They also bought ₹5,073 crore worth of index futures. In the last 3 days, FII has been a net buyer of ₹10,191 crore in derivatives. April month-to-date is now +₹5,187 crore. For context, March was -₹1,76,544 crore. That’s a complete U-turn. But here’s the thing, they’re still short 2,27,400 contracts. That’s massive. At 2,68,462 we hit the peak 4 days ago. They’ve covered 41,000 in 2 days. But 2,27,400 is still one of the highest net short positions we’ve tracked. The covering isn’t done. Client, closed out 1,05,605 short-put contracts. Now remember, short puts are long delta. When you’re short puts and the market gaps up 874 points, you’re making money. Those puts are rapidly losing value in your favour. So Client wasn’t getting squeezed here, they were booking profits. 1 lakh contracts of short puts that suddenly went deep in their favour, and they took the money off the table. Smart exit, actually. So the picture is, Pro flipped bullish first, FII is being forced to cover their futures shorts, and Client took profits on the gap-up. The only participant under real pressure here is FII. And with 2,27,400 still short, that pressure isn’t going away. ### *03*Options & GEX analysis SEG 3, OPTIONS + LEVELS Sensex straddle is at 800. I calculate the implied range as 1.25 times the straddle price, that gives us 1,000 points. With Sensex at 77,600, the market is pricing a range of 76,600 to 78,600. On Nifty terms, that’s roughly 23,700 to 24,300. Now here’s the key, IV has already been crushed 41% from yesterday’s gap. The screener is showing a Sell IV / Sell Options signal. IV at 20.97% with the proprietary volatility model at 20.06. When IV is above the model but collapsing fast, that’s a premium-selling environment. Don’t buy options on a Day 2 vol crush, sell them. Sensex GEX, call wall building at 77,500 with 9,66,980 in open interest. The 78,000 strike has 1,420,340 OI with massive volume, 3,33,500 contracts traded. Put OI totals 3.86 crore vs Call OI at 3.08 crore. The put side is heavier, which means support is better defined than resistance. Support zone: 77,000-77,200 on Sensex, that’s roughly 23,800-23,850 on Nifty. Resistance: 78,000-78,200, which maps to 24,100-24,150 on Nifty. Weekly expiry dynamics mean we could see pinning action around the high-OI strikes, 77,500 and 78,000 are the magnets. When a massive gap happens, like yesterday’s 874-point rally, IV spikes first, then collapses. On Day 1, volatility is still elevated because the market is pricing uncertainty. You have wide spreads, high premiums, but also high risk of a reversal. Selling into that is risky. Day 2 is different. IV has already dropped 41%. The gap has been absorbed. The market’s reaction to the reaction is priced in. Now premiums are still somewhat elevated but the violent move is behind you. That’s when you sell, when the premium is above fair value but the real volatility is declining. Today’s Sensex straddle at 800 with IV at 21%, that’s still rich relative to realized vol. This is the premium-selling sweet spot. My view today, buy on dips, sell volatility. GIFT is barely down. Asia is taking profits but that’s normal. The structure hasn’t changed, FII is still massively short and being forced to cover. Pro has flipped bullish. The straddle says the market is pricing 1,000 points of Sensex movement, but I think the actual realized range will be tighter because vol is being crushed. Key watch, 23,800 on Nifty is your dip-buy zone. Below that, something has changed. Above 24,100, you’re in new territory for this move and FII covering could accelerate. Sensex 78,000 is the call wall. Quick scorecard, yesterday I said long, long options, long volatility. Market rallied 874 points. That’s the 5th consecutive winning call this season. We’ve been on the right side of every major move since EP13. That’s not luck, that’s the data working. ### *04*Commodities & FX Dollar Index, 99.08, back above 99. Yesterday it broke below for the first time in weeks. Today it’s reclaiming. That’s a mild headwind for rupee and EM flows. Gold international, $4,723, basically flat. MCX Gold at 1,51,619, down 157. Silver MCX at 2,39,894, up 3.69%, interesting outperformance there. ### *05*Sector watch Now here’s what I’m watching closely, crude bounced. Brent at $96.78, up 2.14% from yesterday’s crash close of $94.68. MCX Crude at 8,860, basically flat. Is this a dead cat bounce, or is the ceasefire trade fading? Keep this in mind for the sector discussion. SEG 4, SCREENER + SECTORS Screener signal, Sensex Fast is on BUY. Signal triggered at 72,965. Projected price 77,863. Current trade MTM is +4,636, that’s +6.35%. Rolling 3-trade MTM at +5.69%, rolling 5-trade at +8.21%. The system is locked in on the long side and has been right through this entire rally sequence. Sector picture, yesterday was bank-dominated. Bank Nifty +5.67%, Fin Services +5.54%. That’s where the leverage was. Today, watch for rotation. If banks consolidate, the rally broadens to midcaps and IT, especially with Dollar Index bouncing back above 99, weak dollar beneficiaries might give back some gains. Energy is the one to watch, crude bounced 2% overnight. Yesterday ONGC, Coal India, and energy names were the only laggards. If crude continues recovering, those names get a relief bounce. If crude fades back, the ceasefire trade continues and oil-consuming sectors keep winning. TCS Q4 results today, this is the earnings season kickoff. How TCS guides on deal wins and discretionary spending will set the tone for the entire IT pack. That matters more than any single number. ### *06*Trading plan & levels Sensex weekly expiry today. And the setup is interesting. SEG 5, TANMAY’S READ ### *07*Education Quick education point, why Day 2 after a gap is often better for selling premium than Day 1. ### *08*RupeeCase update LINKS: rupeecase.com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Amazon Music, YouTube COLD OPEN 32,000 contracts. That’s how many FII covered yesterday. In 1 session. Biggest single-day unwind we’ve seen all season. And they’re still short 2,27,400 contracts. RupeeCase Nifty portfolio, yesterday was interesting. The portfolio is up 91.58% gross, 9.77% CAGR. But yesterday it lagged the benchmark because Bank Nifty drove the rally at +5.67% and our portfolio is equally-weighted across 10 stocks, not bank-heavy. SHRIRAMFIN was the star at +10.14%. COALINDIA gave back -2.52% because crude crashing hurts the energy basket. That’s diversification working as designed, you don’t get all the upside on bank-driven days, but you don’t get blown up on bank-down days either. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. CTA CLOSE That’s your edge for today. Sensex weekly expiry, FII still short 2,27,400, and the vol crush is your friend. If this added value, share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I’m building RupeeCase, India’s systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow. 04Key takeaways ## 4 things to carry into the session. * *01*Fii covered 32,000 contracts, and the squeeze isn’t over description: * *02*Fii covered 32,035 futures contracts, biggest single-day unwind in seas * *03*Crude at 8,860, basically flat * *04*Straddle is pricing 1,000 points 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,261 words, about 6 min to read 32,000 contracts. That's how many FIS covered yesterday in one session. Biggest single day unwind we have seen all this season. And they are still short 2,27,400 contracts. Today's Sensex expiry, the straddle is pricing around 1,000 points movement. And GIFNIFTY is barely down 94 points from yesterday's monster close. So the question is, was yesterday's the squeeze or was it the beginning of the squeeze? So this is Tanmay's Edge, India's pre -market edge, every trading day. I'm Tanmay Kurtaguti. Season 2, episode 16, Sensex weekly expiry. Let's go. 3 percent footsie also two and a half percent the ceasefire rally went global Asia this morning, some profit booking is seen. 5%. 5%. Kospi is down by 1%. After yesterday's 5 -8 % surges that we saw across the globe, this is completely normal. You don't go vertical 2 days in a row. Now here's what I'm watching closely today. 68. 60, basically flat. 08 back above that 99 level yesterday it had broken below the 99 level for the first time in weeks today it's reclaiming it that's a mild headwind for rupee and emerging market flows Gold internationally is trading at 4723, basically flat. MCX gold at 1,51,619, down 157 points. 69%. Interesting outperformance there. Now, let's move to pro, FIs and clients position. This is the story today and I need to... pay attention because what happened yesterday in fno data is the kind of thing that only shows up few times a year pro traders they flipped two days ago pro traders were sitting on 37 000 long puts hedged cautiously yesterday they dumped those 37 000 and went 28 000 short puts on the net side that's a full flip from defensive to aggressive bullish when i say short puts pros is now selling puts, meaning they believe that their markets won't fall. They are collecting premium and betting on the sideways to top up. So pro flips first, always watch pros. So FIs covered around 32,000 contracts, future contracts in one session. Net OI went from 2,59,000 to 2,27,000. That's the biggest single day cover in season two, what we have seen. They also bought 5,000 crore worth of index futures in the last three days. FIs have been a net buyer of 10,000 crore in derivatives. April month today. is now uh standing at 5187 crores in the derivatives from fis for context march was roughly a short one lakh seventy six thousand crore on the derivatives side by FIs in April they have turned positive but here's the thing they are still short 227,000 contracts on the future side that's massive at 268,000 we hit the peak four days ago they have covered 41,000 contracts in two days but 227,000 is still one of the highest net short positions we are seeing in a couple of weeks. The covering isn't done. Now let's move to clients. Client closed around 1 lakh short put contracts. Now remember, short puts are long delta. When your short puts and the market gaps up 874 points, you're making money. Those puts are rapidly losing value in your favor. So client wasn't getting squeezed here. They were booking profits. 1 lakh contracts of short puts that suddenly went deep in their favor and they took the money off the table. Smart exit actually. So the picture is pro flip. bullish first. FI is being forced to cover their futures short and clients to profits on the gap up. The only participant under real pressure here is FI and with 2,27,000 still short, the pressure isn't going to go away so soon. Sensex weekly expiry is today and let's look at some option levels as well and the setup is interesting. Sensex straddle is trading at around 800 bucks. I calculated the implied range and that gives us almost a thousand point move expected. With Sensex at 77,600, the market is pricing a range of 76,600 on the bottom side to 78,600 on the upside. in nifty terms that roughly is 23 700 on the downside to 24 300 on the upside now here's the key iv has been uh falling and crushed almost 41 percent from yesterday's gap up this cleaner is also giving us a cell iv signal so when iv is above the model but collapsing fast that's premium selling environment don't buy options on day two of wall crush sell them sensex gex wall Building is happening at 77,500 with massive almost 10 lakhs in OI present at 77,500. The 78,000 strike has almost 1 crore 42 lakhs of OI with a massive volume of 3,33,000 contracts traded. 08 crore. The put side is heavier, which means support is better defined than resistance. So support zones are 77,000 to 77,200 on Sensex. that's roughly 23 800 to 23 850 on nifty resistance 78 000 to 78 200 which maps to around 24 100 to 24 150 on nifty weekly expiry dynamics means we could see pinning action around the high wire strikes of 77 500 and 77 78 000 are the magnets to watch for Let's move on to some sectorial view as well. So, Screener Sensex is currently in the buy mode. 9635. 863. But on the sectorial side, yesterday was bank dominated. 65%. 5%. That's where the leverage was. Today, watch for rotation. If banks consolidate, the rally broadens to mid -cap and IT, especially with dollar index bouncing back up. Weak dollar beneficiaries might give back some gains. Energy is one to watch for today. Crude bounced 2 % overnight. Yesterday, ONGC and Coal India and Energy names were the only laggards in the rally. If crude continues recovering, those names get a relief bounce. If crude fades back, the ceasefire trade continues and oil -consuming sectors keep winning. So TCS results today. This is earning season kickoff. How TCS guides on deals, wins and discretionary spending will set the tone for the entire IT pack that matters more than a single any single number. So quick education point why to. Day 2 after gap up is often better for selling premium than day 1. When a massive gap up happens like yesterday's 874 point rally, IV spikes first then collapses. On day 1, volatility is still elevated because the market is pricing uncertainty. You have wide spreads, higher premiums but also high risk of reversal. Selling into that is risky. Day 2 is different. IV has already dropped. The gap has been absorbed. The market reaction to the reaction is priced in. Now premiums are still somewhat elevated. but the violent move is behind you. That's when you sell when the premium is above fair value, but the real volatility is declining. Today, Sensex straddle at 800 with Ivy at around 21. That's still rich. 67 % and our portfolio is equal weighted across 10 stocks, not bank heavy. Sriram Transport Finance was the star at 10 % on weekly gains. 5 % because crude was crashing. Hurts the energy bucket as well. That's diversification working as designed. You don't get all the upside on the bank driven days, but you don't get blown up on bank down days either. com. So that's your edge for today. Sensex weekly expiry. massively short and a wall crush is your friend. If this added value guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I am building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you all tomorrow once again. Questions ## EP16, in plain words. What does EP16 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP16, Thursday 9 Apr 2026, 6:40, in 8 chapters: Market overview; F&O positioning; Options & GEX analysis; Commodities & FX; Sector watch; Trading plan & levels; Education; RupeeCase update. How did the calls in EP16 score?It aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it is not graded on the five call scale and not counted in the season hit rate. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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