--- title: "The Monday That Didn't Crash : Crude | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Last episode, crude spiked 11%, FII sold ₹9,931 Cr, and markets shut for 4 days. I asked: what happens Monday? The answer | GIFT Nifty down just 28 points." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-06" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP13 # The Monday that didn't crash : crude fading Asia bouncing, But the trap is still set Last episode, crude spiked 11%, FII sold ₹9,931 Cr, and markets shut for 4 days. I asked: what happens Monday? The answer | GIFT Nifty down just 28 points. Almost flat. Nikkei bounced 904 pts, KOSPI up 2.2%. The bloodbath didn't show up. * **6:50**listen * **Pre trail**before the public trail * **Mon 6 Apr 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The Monday that didn't crash : crude fading EP13, 6 Apr, 6:50 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes6:50 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## Before the public trail. This episode aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it carries no grade on the five call scale and is not counted in the season hit rate. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**RupeeCase updatePlus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I 2. **07**RupeeCase updatePlus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I 3. **07**RupeeCase updatePlus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I 4. **07**RupeeCase updatePlus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I 5. **07**RupeeCase updatePlus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I 6. **07**RupeeCase updatePlus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I 7. **07**RupeeCase updatePlus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I Market overview **904 points**Nikkei bounced **4.67**KOSPI minus **2.43**Nikkei minus **1.7%**Nikkei up points, plus GIFT Nifty? Minus 28 points. Almost flat. Nikkei bounced 904 points. KOSPI up 2.2%. The bloodbath didn’t show up. But the trap is still set. Let me show you. INTRO STING (0:20 to 0:35) This is The Tanmay Edge, India’s pre-market edge in under 8 minutes. I am Read the chapter F&O positioning SEG 2: PRO / FII / CLIENT, THE SIGNATURE (1:30 to 3:00) Let’s answer that question. Who covered? Start with Pro. Read the chapter Options & GEX analysis **25.37**India VIX **24.33**Weekly IV **22,100**Implied range of roughly SEG 3: OPTIONS + LEVELS (3:00 to 4:15) India VIX at 25.37 from Thursday. Still elevated. But weekly IV at 24.33, and the sell IV signal continues. Here’s the play: morning could see a jump in vol on the opening print, but by afternoon, expect IV compression. Read the chapter Commodities & FX **11%**Told you, crude spiked **9,931**FII sold **4.67%**KOSPI crashed **100.12**Dollar Index Last episode, I told you, crude spiked 11% in a single day. FII sold 9,931 crore. KOSPI crashed 4.67%. Markets were shutting for 4 days. And I asked you: what happens Monday? Well, it’s Monday. And the answer is, not what anyone expected. Commodities, and this Read the chapter Sector watch SEG 4: TK SCREENER + SECTORS (4:15 to 5:15) TK Screener, Nifty showing buy on all 3 timeframes. But algo score is minus 56, neutral zone. So the direction says buy, the conviction says wait. Cautious accumulation, not a full send. Sectors, last episode I flagged IT as the relative outperformer. It delivered, up 2.34% Thursday while everything else bled. Energy and metal are neutral-to-buy, crude beneficiaries. The Read the chapter Trading plan & levels Trading plan: buy dips toward VWAP. Scalping day. Credit spreads, not naked directional bets. SEG 5: TANMAY’S READ (5:15 to 6:30) My read for Monday. Cautiously buy on dips. Pro has already started accumulating, they’re light long and hedged. That’s the smart money signal. Follow it. VWAP at 22,500 is your magnet, buy dips toward that level. Scalp the range. Sell vol with iron flies and credit spreads. Tomorrow is Read the chapter RupeeCase update **3,24,386**Plus, they’re long **2,49,557**Long puts and short Plus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I called this max bearish. That hasn’t changed. They’re not covering. ...but here’s what nobody’s telling you. Client. Plus 1,77,562 long futures. Minus Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Market overview GIFT Nifty? Minus 28 points. Almost flat. Nikkei bounced 904 points. KOSPI up 2.2%. The bloodbath didn’t show up. But the trap is still set. Let me show you. INTRO STING (0:20 to 0:35) This is The Tanmay Edge, India’s pre-market edge in under 8 minutes. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 13. Monday, 6 April. Let’s go. SEG 1: GLOBAL + COMMODITIES (0:35 to 1:30) Remember last episode, Asia was bleeding. KOSPI minus 4.67, Nikkei minus 2.43. Everyone was calling for a Monday massacre. Here’s Monday. Nikkei up 904 points, plus 1.7%. KOSPI up 118, plus 2.2%. Complete reversal. Straits Times up 0.37%. The only holdouts, Shanghai down 1%, Jakarta down 0.76%. China’s not buying the bounce. US closed Thursday mixed. Dow futures at 46,544, up 113. S&P at 6,582. Nasdaq 21,879. Steady. Europe, FTSE up 71 to 10,436, very bullish. DAX down 130. CAC flat. The big number, GIFT Nifty at 22,676. Down just 28 points from Thursday’s close of 22,700. Remember, over the weekend it was trading at 22,540, that’s minus 170. Overnight, it recovered 136 points. Someone covered. The question is who. Last episode I showed you, Pro was light long at plus 13,677 futures. Hedged with both long calls and long puts. I said they were nimble, waiting for a trigger. That’s still the position. But here’s what matters, Pro didn’t panic. They didn’t flatten before the 4-day weekend. They held. And now GIFT Nifty is flat. Pro got it right. FII. Last episode’s number: minus 2,64,821 short futures. Thursday close? Minus 2,68,828. They ADDED to the short. Over a long weekend. Cash: minus 9,931 crore on Thursday alone. 2-day FY27 total: minus 18,262 crore. Cumulative: minus 3,54,032 crore. No. GIFT Nifty flat. Asia bouncing. Crude cooling. The clients got lucky. But lucky isn’t a strategy. The position is still exposed if 22,500 breaks this week. The verdict hasn’t changed. Pro is accumulating. FII is pressing short. Client is holding long and praying. But the overnight GIFT Nifty recovery tells you someone in the institutional space is covering. And my bet? It’s not FII. Levels. Nifty closed 22,700 Thursday. GIFT Nifty this morning: 22,676. VWAP sits near 22,500, that’s your magnet. Last episode I said 22,450 to 22,500 is make-or-break. That’s still the floor. Break it = 22,000 to 21,800. Hold it = short covering rally toward 23,000. Education moment. Last episode, I warned about the 4-day weekend trap. Clients short puts going into Good Friday, collecting premium while delta risk stayed open. Well, today we got the answer. The steamroller didn’t show up this time. GIFT Nifty flat. But the lesson doesn’t change, never hold naked short options over a long weekend. The risk-reward is asymmetric. You make 2 rupees and risk 200. Hedge or flatten. Always. ### *02*F&O positioning SEG 2: PRO / FII / CLIENT, THE SIGNATURE (1:30 to 3:00) Let’s answer that question. Who covered? Start with Pro. ### *03*Options & GEX analysis SEG 3: OPTIONS + LEVELS (3:00 to 4:15) India VIX at 25.37 from Thursday. Still elevated. But weekly IV at 24.33, and the sell IV signal continues. Here’s the play: morning could see a jump in vol on the opening print, but by afternoon, expect IV compression. Tomorrow is 7 April expiry, theta will eat premium all day. The 1DTE straddle is priced at 531 rupees. That gives you an implied range of roughly 22,100 on the downside and 23,200 on the upside. 600 points either way. But the market’s telling you probability favors the center. Structure of the day, sell vol. Iron flies. Sell the straddle, buy the wings. Let theta work for you. Credit spreads on both sides. Resistance: 23,200, upper straddle bound, heavy call writing zone. Strong buys globally: SPX, Dollar Index, FTSE, and VIX. When VIX is a strong buy, fear is still the trade. Respect that. Strong sells: Nikkei, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin. The bounce is real but the medium-term signal is still risk-off. Don’t chase it. ### *04*Commodities & FX Last episode, I told you, crude spiked 11% in a single day. FII sold 9,931 crore. KOSPI crashed 4.67%. Markets were shutting for 4 days. And I asked you: what happens Monday? Well, it’s Monday. And the answer is, not what anyone expected. Commodities, and this is key. Last episode, crude was the villain. WTI had just spiked to 112. Today? Brent at 109.46, up just 0.4%. WTI at 110.53, actually down 0.9%. The crude panic is fading. Not gone, but fading. Gold at 4,663, down 14 points. Safe haven trade cooling. Dollar Index at 100.12, barely moved. USD/INR still at 93.10. ### *05*Sector watch SEG 4: TK SCREENER + SECTORS (4:15 to 5:15) TK Screener, Nifty showing buy on all 3 timeframes. But algo score is minus 56, neutral zone. So the direction says buy, the conviction says wait. Cautious accumulation, not a full send. Sectors, last episode I flagged IT as the relative outperformer. It delivered, up 2.34% Thursday while everything else bled. Energy and metal are neutral-to-buy, crude beneficiaries. The casualties: finance, infra, housing, all in sell territory. That’s where FII selling hits hardest. Avoid those until the flow turns. ### *06*Trading plan & levels Trading plan: buy dips toward VWAP. Scalping day. Credit spreads, not naked directional bets. SEG 5: TANMAY’S READ (5:15 to 6:30) My read for Monday. Cautiously buy on dips. Pro has already started accumulating, they’re light long and hedged. That’s the smart money signal. Follow it. VWAP at 22,500 is your magnet, buy dips toward that level. Scalp the range. Sell vol with iron flies and credit spreads. Tomorrow is expiry, vol should compress by afternoon. This isn’t a trending day, it’s a mean-reversion day. This is about being positioned. Not about being right. ### *07*RupeeCase update Plus, they’re long 3,24,386 puts and short 2,49,557 calls. That’s a full bearish portfolio. Last episode I called this max bearish. That hasn’t changed. They’re not covering. ...but here’s what nobody’s telling you. Client. Plus 1,77,562 long futures. Minus 3,75,718 short puts. I said last episode, this is max vulnerability. Collecting pennies in front of a steamroller over a 4-day weekend. So did the steamroller show up? And the systematic side, RupeeCase Nifty. 10 momentum stocks. Gross return: 95.07%. Net: 63.71%. Alpha over Nifty 50: plus 11.15%. Current holdings: SHRIRAMFIN, COALINDIA, HINDALCO, NTPC, SBIN, POWERGRID, TATASTEEL, SUNPHARMA, ONGC, DRREDDY. Next rebalance: 13 April. No opinion. No gut feel. Pure data. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. CTA CLOSE (6:30 to 7:00) That’s your edge for today. Last episode I asked what happens Monday. Now you know. If this added value, share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I’m building RupeeCase, India’s systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow. PRODUCTION NOTES 05In his words You just got earlier. See you tomorrow 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 818 words, about 4 min to read Good morning. Last episode I told you crude spiked 11% in a single day. FIs had sold almost 10,000 crore. 65%. Markets were shutting down for 4 weeks. And I asked you what happens on Monday. Well, it's Monday morning and the answer is not what anyone expected. GIFT Nifty is trading flat. Almost flat, positive 10 points. Nikkei bounced 904 points. 2%. Asia is doing good. The bloodbath didn't show up. But the trap is still set. Let me show you how. This is Tanmay's Edge, India's pre-market edge. I'm Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, Episode 13. April 6th. Let's go. Remember last episode, Asia was bleeding. 5%. 5%. Everyone was calling for a Monday massacre. Here's Monday. 7%. KOSPI is up by 118 points. Complete reversal. 37%. The only holdouts are Shanghai, which is down by 1%. 76%. China is not buying the bounce. US closed Thursday mixed. Dow futures is currently trading up positive 113 points. S&P and Nasdaq both trading. Europe and FTSE were up and flat. Commodities, and this is the key. Last episode, crude was the villain. WTI had spiked to almost $114. 4%. 1%. The crude panic is fading. Not gone but fading. Gold at $4,663, down 14 points. Safe haven trade cooling off. 1, barely moved. 10. And rupee is reacting to the new RBI intervention. The big number. GIFT Nifty trading at 22,676. Down just 28 points from Thursday's close of 22,700. Remember over the weekend it had gone to a low of 22,500. That was more than 200 points minus. Overnight, it recovered 140 points. Somebody covered. The question is who? Let me answer that. Pro, last episode I showed you Pro was light long at plus 13,000 contracts on the futures side, hedged with both long calls and long puts. I said they were nimble, waiting for the trigger. That's still the position. But here's what matters. Pro didn't panic. They didn't flatten before the four day weekend. They held. And now GIFT Nifty is trading flat. Pro got it right. FIs, last episode they added around 4,000 short futures and are currently standing at 2 lakh 68,000. So they added to the short over a long weekend. Cash, they sold around 9,900 crore on Thursday alone. Second day of FY27 and total minus is around 18,000 crore. That's $2 billion. Cumulatively, they have sold more than 3,50,000 crore. Plus, they are holding around 3,24,000 puts and around 2,50,000 short calls. That's a full bearish portfolio. Last episode, I called this max bearish. That hasn't changed. They are not covering. But here's what nobody is telling you. Clients. They are still holding long. 1,77,000 futures. They are around 3,75,000 short puts. I said in that episode, this is max vulnerability. Collecting pennies in front of a steamroller over a four day weekend. So did the steamroller show up? No. GIFT Nifty is trading flat. Asia is bouncing. Crude is cooling. The clients got lucky. But lucky isn't a strategy. The position is still exposed if 22,500 breaks this week. The verdict hasn't changed. Pro is accumulating. FI is pressing shorts. Client is holding long and praying. But the overnight GIFT Nifty recovery tells you someone in the institutional space is covering. And my bet, it's not FIs. 37, still elevated. 33 and the sell signal continues. This morning we could see a jump in IVs on opening print, but by afternoon expecting IV compression. Today is 6th, tomorrow is 7th April. Theta will eat premium all day. The 1DTE straddle is trading at 531 currently. That gives you an implied range of roughly around 22,100 on the downside and 23,200 on the upside. 600 points either way. But the market's telling you probability favors the center. That's where the VWAP is currently. Levels. Nifty closed 22,700 Thursday. GIFT Nifty this morning 22,676. VWAP sits near 22,500, that's your magnet. Last episode I said 22,450 to 22,500 is make or break. That's still the floor. Break it, 22,000 to 21,800. Hold it and the short covering rally should take us to 23,000. My read for Monday. Cautiously buy on dips. Pro has already started accumulating, light long and hedged. That's the smart money signal. Follow it. VWAP is currently trading around 22,500, that's your magnet. Buy dips towards that level. Scalp the range. Sell vol with iron flies and credit spreads. It's a mean reversion day. RupeeCase Nifty Momentum 10 rebalances today. Currently holding Shriram Transport Finance, Coal India, Hindalco, NTPC, SBI, Power Grid, Tata Steel, Sun Pharma, ONGC, Dr Reddy's. No gut feel. Pure data. com. That's your edge for today. Last episode, I asked what happens Monday. Now you know. If this added value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I'm building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you all tomorrow. Questions ## EP13, in plain words. What does EP13 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP13, Monday 6 Apr 2026, 6:50, in 7 chapters: Market overview; F&O positioning; Options & GEX analysis; Commodities & FX; Sector watch; Trading plan & levels; RupeeCase update. How did the calls in EP13 score?It aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026, so it is not graded on the five call scale and not counted in the season hit rate. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [Podcast archiveApril 2026 episodesEvery call that month, graded](/podcast/2026-04/) * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [Free module 7.6Corporate Earnings Cycle in India10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-6-corporate-earnings-cycle-india) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. 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